Archive for September 2016

Take a break Dee Why

Posted on September 30th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Up the beach the surf is down

dy

Pretty morning, shame about the waves

Hello Friends,

Less than a metre, less than 7 seconds tells you all you need to know about the wave energy level this beautiful morning in Sydney. Looks like a great day for just about anything other than surfing. Classic spring time conditions – unfortunately.
And the outlook? May I refer you to that most esteemed of esteemed swell watchers – The Goat.
Have a great Friday everyone!

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system is centred over central Victoria, while an associated cold front is moving through northeast New South Wales. This low is expected to move southeast, to be positioned in eastern Bass Strait by this evening. Vigorous west to northwesterly winds will prevail in the wake of the front, and generally remain westerly while easing over the weekend as the low pressure system moves offshore. Winds will shift north to northeasterly by late Sunday ahead of the next cold front expected to affect coastal waters on Monday.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Saturday 1 October
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 2 October
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning northerly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the evening.
Weather
Sunny.


The Goat’s Long Weekend Surf Forecast

Posted on September 29th, 2016 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 September 2016: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Looks like lots of NW W N SW …hey look, that says NSW…wind ahead, which should pretty well whip the surf  down into submission.  But the surf won’t take that lying down and it’ll try to fight back.  Only time will tell which of Mother Nature’s ying and yang forces wins out each day…

So with that in mind… try this for size…

Friday: smaller than today but should be in the 1-2 metre range shorter period stuff from North East

Saturday: smaller, say 1 metre or so North East

Sunday: down again say 1 metre or less North East

Monday: 1 metre or so North East

Tuesday: something similar

Wednesday: smaller..maybe flattish

Thursday: maybe 1 metre at places that like dead South swell from SSW wind

Friday: up ever so sightly at places open to the South

Have a Happy and Safe Long Weekend..

Drive carefully..

Surf and swim carefully…

My Gold Coast Correspondent says it’s flat up there but the weather’s nice and there are heaps of whales passing by headed back down the NSW North Coast.  I know one or two have been spotted off Sydney, so they are spread out in between… Call me a silly old fool, but funny that coincides with the first shark attack of the season at Ballina… Just the time of the year everyone likes to be there I’m sure.  Except it didn’t happen before for hmm most of my life. Anyway just keep your eyes open

Look at that Low hitting SA that knocked out the whole State’s power! … bringing lots of W/NW wind to us.

If only SA had more wind turbines……..

MSLP Analysis for Thu Sep 29 00:00:00 2016 AUTC

Water temp is slowly improving..around 20

image

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 19
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 60%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. Winds northerly 35 to 45 km/h tending northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Shower or two.Sydney19
Possible rain. Possible storm.Penrith19
Shower or twoLiverpool19
Shower or twoTerrey Hills18
Shower or twoRichmond19
Shower or twoParramatta19
Shower or twoCampbelltown18
Shower or two.Bondi19

Friday 30 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Possible shower. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Saturday 1 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 2 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 26
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 3 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h turning westerly during the morning.

Tuesday 4 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 26
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Wednesday 5 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the d


Surprisingly clean early but marginal

Posted on September 29th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Little lines evident but surfable?

dy point

The point unoccupied at 0625

Hello Friends,

A few spots of rain as I climbed aloft to the crows nest this morning. Wind was out of the NNE 10-15 kts and as of 0500 the MHL buoy was showing 2 metres of 7-sec NNE wind swell. At Dee Why that meant there were surprisingly clean but very small lines coming in. The point was unoccupied and the beach looked about knee to waist high on the bigger ones. So, you could sort of surf.
Wind’s going to ramp up over the next few hours and judging from the radar we can expect to see rain soon as well.
Surf prospects don’t look as though they’ll improve today but at least it looks as though there should be offshores.
The Goat should be along later with his weekly outlook, so I’ll just say that I’m hoping he’ll detect something of interest for the coming week…
Have a great Thursday and keep on smilin’!

North Bondi

North Bondi looking plausible

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system in the Bight is moving eastwards. This low, together with a strong cold front, will move across New South Wales during today and Friday. Northwest to northeasterly winds will strengthen during today as the cold front approaches. Wind will shift more westerly late today and Friday as the cold front moves through, and generally remain westerly over the weekend as the low pressure system moves offshore.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 25 to 30 knots turning northwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday 30 September
Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northwesterly 25 to 35 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Saturday 1 October
Winds
West to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Sunny but puny for Wednesday morning

Posted on September 28th, 2016 in Dee Why.
No Mans Dee Why

Up the beach only a hint of a possibility at 0700

20160928_06-43-dsc_3291_1

dy point flat

Another pretty but waveless morning for Dee Why point

WRL image of south narrabeen

South Narra looking like a lake WRL pic

Hello Friends,

Very small to flat at Dee Why and south Narrabeen this morning. That said, the MHL buoy is showing a metre of 8-sec south swell and means places like Curly or Longy possibly, have some knee high bumps. So, you have to look around and keep your expectations brutally realistic, but there should be a tiny little something for the keen. Weather is set to be sunny all day. Wind should be favourable through most of the day but by late afternoon it’s set to be NE. Tide was high at 0630 and’ll be back to low at 1220.
Wind and rain is on tap for tomorrow but since the weather’s coming from the N to NE I’m not expecting much more than (maybe) choppy, beat up wind swell at the usual summer suspects.
Beyond that, I’m not seeing much of interest in the forecast models. It looks like an extended stretch of mostly small and short period wind bump. Be interesting to see what the Goat thinks tomorrow.
Have yourself a top old Wednesday one and all!

Nth Bondi

Little ripples at North Bondi this morning

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge over eastern Australia is weakening as a complex low pressure system develops in the Bight. This low, together with a strong cold front, will move across southeast Australia from late on Wednesday through to Friday. South to southwesterly winds over New South Wales waters will turn northwest to northeasterly on Wednesday, strengthening during Thursday as the cold front approaches. A westerly change is expected late on Thursday or early on Friday as the cold front moves through, before winds gradually tend southwesterly by the weekend as the low pressure system moves offshore.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then turning east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 29 September
Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 35 knots early in the morning then turning northwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
2 to 4 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday 30 September
Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.


I know it’s just silly but…

Posted on September 27th, 2016 in Just for fun.

Hi All,
Your webmaster is a political junky who will be glued to US presidential debate at 1100 this morning. Just for fun I’ve quickly whipped up a very rough and ready little game for my fellow tragics that I call #TrumpLiesBingo. You can see it at FactCheckBingo.com


Tiny Tuesday at Dee Why

Posted on September 27th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Up the beach at No Mans no sign of any mans

DY point

Good morning for a swim but you can leave the board at home

Hello Friends,

You’ll be doing very well to find anything into the surfable range this morning at Dee Why. It’s looking ankle to knee at the point and along the beach and the MHL buoy is showing a metre of 7 sec south bump. Not that it matters much, but tide’s dropping to the low at 1130 and it should be sunny ll day and if you’re thinking of a swim, water’s around the 19 mark.

The Bureau says there’s going to be a little uptick late in the day, but on their modelling it looks as though we’re talking maybe waist high during the night time hours. There’s some hope for maybe knee to waist around the middle part of the day tomorrow at south swell magnets. Thursday and Friday are looking marginal to flat.

Have yourself a great Tuesday one and all!

nth Bondi RSL surfcam

No surfin’ in front of the North Bondi RSL this morning.

sth narrabeen WRL

WRL cam showing a microscopic south Narrabeen

Weather Situation
South to southwesterly winds along the New South Wales coast will turn northwest to northeasterly on Wednesday and increase ahead of a west to southwesterly change expected to develop during Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots. Turning south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots early in the afternoon and reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 30% chance of a shower offshore in the late morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Wednesday 28 September
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning then becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Thursday 29 September
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots turning northwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.


Waves for Monday morning

Posted on September 26th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Lines at No Mans on Monday morning about 0700

dy point

Wave gets ridden at the point at 0700

dy point

The early morning crew sizes up a little set

Hello Friends,

Sunny skies over Sydney this morning and around 10-15 kts of WSW wind fanning a waist to chest plus south swell. It’s about 2 metres out at sea and was 10 seconds apart as of 0600. There were a few bods in the water at Dee Why point chasing what looked to be waist to waist plus sets. Up the beach toward No Mans it was bigger looking and I’d expect optimally aligned stretches to be into the shoulder high range on the sets. Tide’s dropping to the low at 1030. The Bureau’s modelling is showing the swell fading rapidly across the day, so the plan is to hit it ASAP if you can.
Outlook is pretty ordinary for the next few days, but there does seem to be a small hope for the wave energy to come up again on late Wednesday-Thursday and possible to produce some knee to waist waves at south spots. I would add that this prospect isn’t showing across all the models, so your mileage may vary.

WRL south Narrabeen

Nothing much at south Narrabeen (WRL cam pic)

Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the state, establishing a southwest flow over the waters for the next few days. The next frontal system is expected to move over the state from late Wednesday and affect the waters for much of the second half of the week.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the morning and again in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere.
Tuesday 27 September
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots tending northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots early in the morning then becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.
Wednesday 28 September
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.


Aw Huey, where’d the waves go

Posted on September 25th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach paddlers

Paddlers out for a paddle at Dee Why 0815

dy point

Back to flat at the point and Kiddies for Sunday morning.

Hello Friends,

Yesterday’s little pulse faded away overnight and this morning started out drizzly with light wind. The MHL data was showing a metre of 8-sec SE wind swell. As the pictures show, there really weren’t any waves to speak of at the Dee Why end of the beach. If you’re really keen, you might find something in the knee high range at a more south exposed spot up the beach or around at Curly, but I’d be taking my little wave toy.
Not that it matters much, but tide’s low at 0925 and will be low again at 1555. Wind should pick up from the SW during the day.
Tomorrow the Bureau says we can expect a mix of south and east swell components. The models aren’t lining up on the consequences, but it’s at least looking plausible for some chest high sets at better spots.
Beyond that things are looking pretty, er, springy, ie marginal to flat.
Anyway, have yourself a fun Sunday!

Weather Situation
West to northwesterly winds are expected across New South Wales waters today, before a cold front and associated fresh to strong south to southwesterly change move up the coast later today and early on Monday. Following the front, a weak high pressure system is forecast to slowly drift across the region, with the next significant frontal system due towards the end of the week.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning west to southwesterly in the early afternoon then shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon or evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
East to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 26 September
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then tending southwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Tuesday 27 September
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.


Waves to be had on Saturday morning

Posted on September 24th, 2016 in At large.

sat24sep16-bondi-538x404

dy beach

Shoulder plus on the bombs near the Pole

dy point

A few little ones on the rocks at the point

dy beach

Kiddies picking up the odd interesting set at 0640

dy beach

Near the pole at 0640

north narrabeen surfiing

Northy crew on it from early

sth Narrabeen empty

Pretty if unrideable at south Narrabeen

Hello Friends,

Sunny, light offshores and fun looking waist to chest and a bit sets at magnets this morning. According to the MHL data, swell was SE, 8 seconds apart and a touch under 2 metres. At Dee Why the point was only delivering rideable bumps sporadically, but as you moved up the beach toward the Pole and the south end of the lugga zone, sets were into the shoulder range. Same thing was happening around at the Collaroy-Narra stretch. Nothing much at Collaroy, a little possibility (but no takers) near Marquesas and then nothing really until you got to Northy where the crew were jagging waist plus sets.
Tide’s low at 0815 and back to high at 1445. Water’s about 18.
Waves will probably fade a little as the day goes along but there might still be some little bumps to play on tomorrow. Monday could possibly see a slight uptick but then the rest of the week doesn’t look too promising. Basically lots of short period small east windswell.
So get out there and have a good time today!

Weather Situation
A southwesterly flow over the waters is expected to ease today as a high pressure system moves east across the state. Winds are expected to briefly shift northerly again overnight tonight and early tomorrow, before the next cold front and southerly change during the latter half of Sunday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable below 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre later in the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower this morning.
Sunday 25 September
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of rain.
Monday 26 September
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.


Windy with waves

Posted on September 23rd, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Surfer waits for one at No Mans

Sizable set at No Mans 0725

Sizable set at No Mans 0725

dy point

The point showing the odd small but rideable one

WRL cam south narrabeen

WRL south Narra cam captures surfer paddling out at 0630

Hello Friends,

Pretty breezy around the RealSurf crows nest this morning from the WSW. Down at Dee Why the 8-sec, 3 metre SSW wind swell was producing waist to chest at the point and chest to shoulder plus up the beach where the swell’s hitting more directly.Tide was low at 0700 and is coming into a high at 1335.
The wind should peak this morning and then shift a more to the south. The models are generally showing the waves holding about the same level across the day. Beyond that, may I refer you to the Goat’s freshly baked forecast for the weekend and the week beyond.
Have yourself a top old Friday eeyeryone!

Weather Situation
A low pressure system off the central New South Wales coast is steadily moving east over the Tasman Sea, while a weak high pressure system lies across central Australia. Between these systems, strong to gale-force south to southwesterly winds will dominate over coastal waters today, before a gradual easing trend from this evening as the high moves across southeastern Australia and the low moves further away. Winds are expected to briefly shift northerly again during Saturday, before the next cold front and southerly change on Sunday.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore during the morning. Turning south to southwesterly during the day.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
Saturday 24 September
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots becoming south to southeasterly about 10 knots in the afternoon then northeasterly 10 to 15 knots by evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower offshore.
Sunday 25 September
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.


 

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