Archive for October 2016

Clean but fat and tiny early

Posted on October 31st, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach surfer

Picking up a little bump at Kiddies 0630

dy beach

Too small, too fat for No Mans

dy point

Hopefuls hanging about at the point

Hello Friends,

A pretty morning early. Breezy from the SSW under sunny skies, but sadly there’s not much going on surf-wise. The MHL buoy was showing 1.3m of 7-sec east wind bump at 0400 and a couple hours later when I grabbed the pics it was, as you’d expect, fat and tiny. There were a few people at Kiddies and out at the point, but there didn’t seem to be anybody up the beach. Tide was still coming in to the high at 0920, so that wasn’t helping either.
For the last few days now the swell models have not been encouraging and, sad to say, they really aren’t any better this morning. Most are showing micro to flat for the rest of the working week and next weekend. The most hopeful prediction was flagging the possibility of a brief couple metre south pulse around Sunday. So the outlook isn’t totally bleak.
Have yourself a top old Monday everybody!

WRL cam south narrabeen

WRL cam image from 0530 showing some possibility of a little bump

Weather Situation
A cold front and associated rain band lie across northeast New South Wales, and are expected to clear the state today. Northerly winds will give way to a south to southwesterly change with the passage of this front. A ridge of high pressure will become established across southeast Australia on Tuesday, and persist until the end of the week.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending east to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 1 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon then becoming variable about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere.
Wednesday 2 November
Winds
Northwest to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending southwesterly during the morning then shifting northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower.


Fat and full early but still some little waves

Posted on October 30th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Fat little lines up the beach

dy point

Sunday crew waiting for something to happen at 0715

Hello Friends,

As of 0700 the wind was light from the north and there was around 1.5 metres of 6-7 sec east wind bump struggling against the incoming tide (high’s at 0850). There were a fair number of bods in the water at Kiddies waiting for the odd knee to waist bump.
We’re headed for a windy and warm day says the Bureau. They’re calling for a high of 28 and the wind that was light early is expected to give way to 20-30kts of N-NE soon. So we can expect some scrappy chest plusses maybe late this afternoon at spots that strike the balance between the wind direction and the wind swell that’ll get pushed up.
Tomorrow looks dicey on the wind front and only slightly hopeful for swell. Basically it looks like whipsawing from north at 20-30 to S-SW to NE to SE. I’m not too confident that it’ll be very surfable at all – too many changes of direction and no real sign of longer period swell. Just looks like local wind bump.
The models are joyless for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. Looks like typical spring conditions of near flat to barely catchable for the most part. Ah well, it is spring after all, so we’ll take what fun we can find.
Speaking of fun, have yourself a fun old Sunday and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation
North to northeasterly winds will strengthen today ahead of a cold front moving across New South Wales. A south to southwesterly change will move northwards along the New South Wales coast from late on Sunday and during Monday as the front moves through. After the front clears the state on Monday, a ridge of high pressure will become established across southeast Australia.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of rain and the chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
Monday 31 October
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds shifting south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots early in the morning then tending southeast to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower and the chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning.
Tuesday 1 November
Winds
Northwest to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then tending north to northwesterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Smooth early and small waves

Posted on October 29th, 2016 in At large.
dy beach

Tiny but catchable little bumps at Kiddies around 0650

dy beach surfer

Set wave near the Pole

north narrabeen surfer

Tiny bumps at Northy 0640

south narrabeen

You might be able to catch those things

Hello Friends,

Wind faded overnight and first light saw foggy conditions with only a faint breeze. Surface conditions were smooth and there was a tiny east wind swell producing soft knee to waist high waves at magnets such as the area around the pole and Northy. The MHL buoy was showing 1.3 metres of 8 second east at 0400. Tide was heading to the high at 0815, so there was definitely an element of fatness.
Should be cloudy all day and the wind is expected to come up from the east by lunch time and get into the 20-25 kt range by late afternoon.
There’s a strong wind warning for tomorrow for 20-25 kts of N-NE, so that should mean junky chest plus sets at spots that are surfable under NE conditions. It looks like being a warm one too, with late rain.
Have a great Saturday everybody!

Weather Situation
Northerly winds will strengthen today and during Sunday and turn northeasterly as a high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea moves towards New Zealand and a cold front approaches from the west. A south to southwest change will then move northwards along the New South Wales coast on Monday as the front moves through.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Easterly 20 to 25 knots turning northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 30 October
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 31 October
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots before shifting east to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southwesterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southerly 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters


Marginal at best this morning

Posted on October 28th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

A lonely hunter waits at No Mans 0630

dy point

Maybe… with a mal… if you were keen…

Hello Friends,

Not the prettiest morning and not much in the way of wave energy, but it’s not quite as flat as yesterday. The MHL buoy is showing 2 metres of 8 sec SE wind swell, so we’re looking at waist-ish at the bigger spots I’d say. Wind was light westerly when I grabbed the snaps at 0630 but the forecast is for it to turn east to SE by late this morning. Tide was on the way to high at 0745.
And the outlook? Well, as he has for the past couple of decades now, the Goat has brought his considerable experience to bear on the models’ output to make a few predictions for the coming week.
Have a great Friday everyone and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation
An east to southeasterly flow across the waters will tend northerly during Saturday as a high pressure system moves over the Tasman Sea extending a ridge to the north and then strengthen on Sunday ahead of a cold front and southerly change expected on the south coast early Monday.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Saturday 29 October
Winds
Easterly 20 to 25 knots turning northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Sunday 30 October
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots turning northerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 27th, 2016 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 27 October 2016: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The big waves came and went.. and with lots of wind changes in the week ahead they’ll still stay went.

On some days it’ll be tres ordinaire, but on some others it will be just ordinaire.  Never mind…

Maybe the calmer conditions will help chill out some of the wildlife … “Shark bites man”… “Man punches shark”… “Seal bites man”… what next…Man bites Shark??? .  We just want to surf in peace.  You sea critters got that !??

Anyhooo… the surf outlook

Friday: up a little bit from the southerly that’s blowing now and that’ll be right behind it tomorrow… say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots only and junky and windy

Saturday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East and onshore… yum

Sunday: 1 metre or so North East

Monday: ditto if the westerly doesn’t blow it flat first

Tuesday: 1 metre or less

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: around 1 metre or so at dead South spots.

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 27 06:00:00 2016 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windytv.com/?-33.883,151.167,6

Down in the Sea

Water temp has been hot and cold…now supposed to be around 21

 

image

 

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Showers or drizzle.
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers or drizzle, most likely in the evening. Winds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h turning southerly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 28 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 20
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Saturday 29 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the late morning and afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 30 October

Summary
Min 18
Max 29
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 31 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Cloud clearing.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning. Sunny afternoon. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting southwesterly during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 1 November

Summary
Min 12
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds westerly and light increasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 2 November

Summary
Min 13
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 3 November

Summary
Min 13
Max 24
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Very small this morning

Posted on October 27th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

No sign of surf up the beach

dy point

Paddler works a tiny one along the rocks at 0640

Hello Friends,

Swell’s faded right away this morning. Tide was just coming up to the high at 0700 when I checked it out for the first time today and the MHL buoy data was showing 0.8 of a metre from the SE at about 8 seconds. There was just the tiniest hint of a line at the point and less than that up the beach toward No Mans. Not that it matters much, but the wind was out of the south at 10-15 kts, so surface conditions were less than appetizing.
That wind might push up a little bump later, but the overall picture from the models is not exactly bright. Today and tomorrow aren’t likely to be surfable and while there’s some hope for Saturday and Sunday, most models are showing marginal to tiny short period NE wind bump. The Goat should be along later with his thoughts for the week to come, so I’m hoping he’ll pick up on something I’m missing on the long range predictions…
Have a top old Thursday one and all!

Weather Situation
A cold front will move away to the east today, with an associated southerly change moving along the central coast and stalling on the northern coast this evening. A high pressure system will slowly move over southern New South Wales and the Tasman Sea on Friday and Saturday, tending winds back northerly by the weekend. Winds will strengthen on Sunday ahead of another cold front and southerly change expected on the south coast early Monday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly early in the morning. Winds reaching 25 knots at times early in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Friday 28 October
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending easterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Saturday 29 October
Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots tending northeasterly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


Swell fading fast but still a few this morning

Posted on October 26th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach waves

Waist high plusses up the beach at 0645

dy point surfer

Getting the last of the energy at the point this morning at 0645

Hello Friends,

As expected, energy levels have dropped off dramatically in the last 24 hours. Yesterday we had triple overhead faces on the bombs at the point, this morning looked waist to chest on the bigger ones. Wind was light from the WNW when the pictures were taken and tide was just past the high at 0620. Skies were mostly clear and we’re on the way to 29 says the Bureau.
Wind’s expected to pick up as the day goes along and it’ll turn more north around lunch time. At the same time the swell energy is expected to continue fading toward near flatness by tomorrow morning. There could be a small uptick in the afternoon, but the next week basically looks marginal to small as average periods stay well below the 10 sec mark. Not the best outlook for surfin’ but it’ll suit your correspondent who’s been waiting for things to calm down so he can start getting some rehab paddling time for the recovering arm.
Have a top old Wednesday everyone and go well with your plans!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the northern Tasman Sea extends a ridge southwards, while a cold front is approaching from the west. These two systems will generate north to northwesterly winds over the New South Wales coast ahead of a southerly change associated with the front. This change is expected to enter the far south coast this evening and gradually extend northwards, reaching the far north coast by early Friday. Winds will gradually shift easterly during Friday and Saturday as a new high pressure system strengthens over the southern Tasman Sea in the wake of the front.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning northerly in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 27 October
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots ahead of a south to southeasterly change 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the late afternoon and evening.
Friday 28 October
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


Longy Tuesday evening session

Posted on October 25th, 2016 in Long Reef.

Went down to Longy toward dusk to see what was what. Lotta people in the water chasing big and lumpy high tide waves from about the guard hut north. Sets were still into the double head plus range, but there weren’t heaps of long ones. Few bods out the back too… Took a buncha pictures, so if you were out and want to see if I got you, drop me a message and I’ll put the whole lot up.

long reef surfing

Fan man at Longy 1840

long reef surfing

Longy lefts in short supply

long reef surfing

Taking the top off one

long reef surfing

Speed run

long reef surfing

Racing the lip

long reef surfing

Bombies SUP charger

long reef surfing

Sectiony but sizey too

long reef surfing

Out the back

long reef surfing

Pretty as a picture


The Goat visits Bondi this afternoon

Posted on October 25th, 2016 in At large.

Bondi centre some nice waves on sets…size starting to go down..smaller and harder to catch at North Bondi…great day for watching if you’re not fit and experienced…Don’t try to go out if you’re not!

bondi

Goat’s eye-view of Bondi this arvo.

Bondi surf

North Bondi picking it up this afternoon


A few pics from Dee Why point this morning

Posted on October 25th, 2016 in Dee Why.

Grabbed a few shots at the point before the NE’r started to pick up. Sets were still in the 2-3x overhead range, but you’d have to say the quality wasn’t all that amazing. They were lumpy and tended to section a fair amount.

dy point surfing

Hanging on a wall

dy point surfing

Might just wait a sec before rocking off…

dy point surfing

Tiny little bomb set just on 0900 at Dee Why point

dy point surfing

Pedal to the metal, trying to get around the section

dy point surfing

Bodysurfer pulling in

dy point surfing

Sizable set wave

dy point surfing

Another big one

Bodysurfer hits the accelerator

Bodysurfer hits the accelerator


 

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