Archive for November 2016

Micro but catchable Manly

Posted on November 30th, 2016 in Surf Reports.

Fat and knee to waisr little glassy stories at Manly. But every once in
awhile a chest high one wave set appears to keep it interesting{CAPTION}


Little waves for Weds morning

Posted on November 30th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point surfers

Small crew in attendance at 0645

dy beach

No takers, but looking possible up the beach

Hello Friends,

The wind was out of the south at 0700 but only a couple of knots. That meant it was relatively smooth from the point up to No Mans. Waves looked to be in the knee to waist high range for a little group at the point and maybe a touch bigger for those scattered up the beach.
As of 05000 the MHL buoy was detecting 1.4 metres of 9-12 sec swell from 155 degrees (SSE).
The morning tide is a high at 0930 the afternoon low will be at 1600. It should be 26 with a chance of a shower.
The Bureau and the models agree that wave energy levels are headed down from the current modest intensity. Have to say that I’m not too stoked about the way the models are looking for the next week – and beyond. Today’s round-up of the predictions suggests we’ll be lucky to see anything much above waist high across the next 7 days in Sydney. Here’s hoping we don’t get to absolute flatness…
Never mind, get out the log or grab some fins and go for a body bash. The water’s 20 and it’s a lovely sunny morning in Sydney.
Stay happy!

Weather Situation
A slow moving high pressure system is centred over the Tasman Sea while a weakening trough lies over the Mid North Coast. The high will direct north to northeasterly winds over northern parts of the New South Wales coast, with south to southeasterly winds along southern and central parts of the coast in the wake of the trough. Winds throughout will tend north to northeasterly over the next two days as the trough dissipates. Another southerly change is expected along the south coast later Friday, reaching northern parts of the coast during Saturday.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots this evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower early this morning.
Thursday 1 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Friday 2 December
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly during the morning then tending northerly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower.


Small and bumpy Tuesday morning

Posted on November 29th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Little waves along the beach at 0630

dy point

Too tiny for the point at 0630

Hello Friends,

At 0645 wind was out of the SSW at 10 kts. Out at sea the long period SSE swell of yesterday has given way to 1.4m metres of 7-second wind bump. That means the point’s off the menu now and the beach looks to be in the knee to waist range.
Tide’s high at 0855 and will be low again by 1525. By the time we’re at low water, the wind is set to be SE.
Speaking of low ebbs, most of the models are pointing toward an improvement in the average period over the next few days, but not the size of the swell. So, it’ll be small to tiny, but maybe a little bit better than today – wind willing.
Go well with your plans today everyone!

Weather Situation
A slow moving high pressure system is centred over the Tasman Sea while a weak trough lies over central parts of the coast and is slowly moving north. The high will direct north to northeasterly winds over northern parts of the New South Wales coast, with south to southeasterly winds along southern and central parts of the coast in the wake of the trough. Winds throughout will tend north to northeasterly on Wednesday and Thursday as the trough is expected to dissipate later today or early Wednesday. Another southerly change is expected along the south coast later Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening, mostly inshore.
Wednesday 30 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Thursday 1 December
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres offshore during the evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters


Set wave longy

Posted on November 28th, 2016 in Surf Reports.

45 in the water trying to score one of these{CAPTION}


Longy head high and busy

Posted on November 28th, 2016 in Surf Reports.

1615 and south swell in the chest to head high range focusing in frontofthe
lifeguard box. 40 people chasing zippers but mostly quickly shutting down
sections. Competition is intense and no real peaks from there south to
maybe kiddies. Dozen at butterbox but hard to tell if any good. Bombing not
doing much for the one guy out there.{CAPTION}


Grey, humid, light chop but waves

Posted on November 28th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dypoint

Little rideable ones at the point at 0645

dypoint

Set at the beach but no takers

dy beach

Up the beach, untaken possibilities

Hello friends,

A few bods at the point this morning chasing waist to chest plus sets. No one that I could see in the water up the beach, although there were definitely sets. The wind was ruffling it up though. It’s coming from the NNE and will pretty much stay that way all day.
Dangerous surf warning posted for this morning. There was 2 metres of 13-sec SSE swell making its way into Dee Why at 0500. Wind is out of the NNE at about 10 knots. Tide’s heading into the high at 0820 and will be low again at 1450. Should be partly cloudy and 27 later.
On a schedule so gotta run. Have a great Monday everybody!

Weather Situation
Southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast are tending north to northeasterly as a high pressure system moves towards Tasmania extending a ridge to the north coast. On Monday afternoon, a trough will bring a southerly change to south coast extending to Sydney Waters overnight before weakening on the Mid North Coast during Tuesday afternoon. Winds are expected to turn back north to northeasterly on Wednesday as another high pressure ridge develops along the coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm during the day.
Caution
Deceptively powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 29 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore in the early afternoon.
Wednesday 30 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Southerly smashing it early

Posted on November 27th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point

If you were keen at 0830

dy beach

Up the beach – not interesting

Hello Friends,

10-15 kts of southerly with overcast skies as Sunday kicked off. Swell’s kicked back up after weakening yesterday afternoon and as of 0600 the MHL buoy was showing 2.8 metres of 10-sec SSE swell. Tide was high at 0745 and is heading to the low at 1410.
As the pictures show, at 0830 Dee Why was scrappy and in the waist to chest range at the point. Didn’t see anything of interest at the beach but there were people just up from Kiddies so presumably there’s something to chase.
The Bureau’s hoisted the ‘deceptively powerful surf conditions’ pennant, but I’d say anywhere big will also be blown out. Outlook is for the SE’r to swing east in the afternoon – blerggh.
Tomorrow’s supposed to be onshore again and the swell’s due to gradually fade – although the Bureau still has a surf warning for the morning.
Looking ahead it seems that we’re in for a so-so week. Right now I reckon Wednesday morning is most hopeful. If it works out we might see sunny, light offshores and knee to waist plus a SE magnets.
Have yourself a top old Sunday everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system south of the Bight is moving east extending a ride to the northern Tasman Sea and directing northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Southeasterly winds are expected along the southern half of the coast this morning as a low pressure trough crosses the coast. Winds will then turn back to the northeast ahead of the next trough which will bring a southerly change to most of the coast on Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this morning.
Caution
Deceptively powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 28 November
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Deceptively powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 29 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly during the morning then tending southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres inshore during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.


Waves but kinda messy early

Posted on November 26th, 2016 in At large.
dy beach surfing

Still some shoulder high wave faces at 0630

dy beach surfing

Sets offer short rides at the pole 0630

The point looking like long waits and mostly feeble

The point looking like long waits and mostly feeble

whiterock

Nobody at White rock as of 0630

north narrabeen

Northy not looking exceptionally interesting at 0625

south narrabeen

You could have it to yourself at south Narrabeen 0620

Hello Friends,

Light ESE wind early was chopping it up pretty much everywhere at 0630. I’d been hoping for morning offshores to shape up the fading south swell. But no. Sets at exposed locations (eg the middle of Dee Why beach) were in the shoulder high range, so there’s still some energy around. But the general sloppiness and indistinct line meant that lots of them were only good for a couple turns before they petered out.
The Bureau says wind should be light and variable before settling into a NE’r this afternoon. According to the HML buoy, at 0400 we had 2.9 metres of 10 sec SSE swell offshore.The swell forecast models are showing the energy levels fading very gradually over the next couple days but there should be something to mess about in through to about Monday.
Tide was high at 0710 and will be back to low at 1330. Ocean temp’s around the 20 mark, so time to switch from the steamer to the springy for your correspondent.
Not much of interest in the forecast models for the coming week. Essentially it looks as though we might have waist to chest until Tuesday and then smaller, but not utterly flat from there into next weekend. As usual, mornings are likely to be the best shot.
Have yourself a great Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system south of Western Australia extends a ridge across New South Wales. The high centre will drift slowly east over the coming days with a centre forming over the Tasman Sea over the weekend and a broad low pressure trough developing over inland New South Wales.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore later tonight.
Sunday 27 November
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 28 November
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


It’s here everybody

Posted on November 25th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point

Another set rolls into the point at 0650

dy point

Plentiful sets this morning

dy beach

No Mans looking the goods too at 0650

Hello Friends,

Solid 10-sec, 3 metre south swell barreling into the beaches of Sydney this morning. Fanned by a light NW wind under sunny skies, it looks like the best morning for waves in a long time. Tide was high at 0630 and will be back to low at 1245. By then the Bureau tells us to expect the wind to be coming around to the SE.
Swell should gradually decline across the day, so getting in now is the plan.
Your correspondent will be out and about with a camera later this morning and that means I’m hoping to have a few pictures to share later.
Have a top day everybody (and beginners: be careful about getting involved today)

Weather Situation
A deep low over the southern Tasman Sea is expected to move slowly southeast over the next few days, while a high pressure system south of Western Australia extends a ridge across New South Wales. The high centre will drift slowly east over the coming days with a centre forming over the Tasman Sea on Sunday and a broad low pressure trough developing over inland New South Wales.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning then becoming east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 26 November
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots early in the morning then becoming east to southeasterly about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower at night.
Sunday 27 November
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 24th, 2016 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 24 November 2016: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Still up tomorrow, but it might start to calm down a bit for the weekend and after that, as a Low that’s down South in the Tasman moves further away toward Kiwiland.

Friday: 2-3 metre range at places that like dead South swell… with more S type wind

Saturday: easing back into the upper end of the 1-2 metre range dead South

Sunday: going down in the 1-2 metre range dead South

Monday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range dead South

Tuesday: up a little in the 1-2 metre range South East… with the temporary increase due to the change in direction

Wednesday: around 1 metre or so at dead South places

Thursday: 1 metre or so South East

Have fun

In the Air

Play join the dots on the Lows over Australia….

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 24 06:00:00 2016 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windytv.com/?-33.861,151.198,6

In the Water

Temp has been around 20 or so but see what you think

image

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0%

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Light winds.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Friday 25 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 26 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower at night. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 27 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 28 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Possible shower or storm.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Tuesday 29 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 30 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 28
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 1 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.


 

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