Archive for April 2017

Clean but small at Crescent this am

Posted on April 28th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Windy but offshore at Crescent Head this morning under grey skies. Tide was high for the early session but set waves were into the chest high range. Mostly however waves were in the knee to waist range and very few were running even half way down the point. Only a dozen people in the water when I checked.
Outlook is for the waves to drop away pretty quickly on this stretch of coast by this afternoon. Same deal applies in Sydney, but there at least you have more options with this particular swell than we do on the north coast.
Outlook for the next week? That’s a good question for the Goat
Have a great Friday!

Trimming on a little one at 0730

Swell too south but big enough to be catchable

Crescent set wave


TG’s quick surf forecast

Posted on April 27th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 27 April 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Been out of town out of sight of the ocean.  Swell’s got a lot of south, sou souwest at the moment so is mostly going straight past and not much is getting into protected corners.  Bit of an up and down week ahead…

Friday: down from today…say 2 metres or so at places o p en to the South with wind

Saturday: down in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Sunday: coming up…about 2, 2+ metres dead  South

Monday: about 1 mm etre or so dead South

Tuesday: ditto South East

Wednesday: coming up… around 2, 2+ metres at dead South spots

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East.

Enjoy. Stay safe.

Weather from the Bureau:

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml


You’re not missing anything

Posted on April 27th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Lots more activity in Sydney than up here at Crescent Head. Swell is way too south for us and is staying well out to sea. Right on sunset last night it briefly touched the point and there were overhead wave faces. This morning though, as you can see, it’s near flat but for the very occasional knee plus set.
Beautiful and cool with light offshores though.
Will try to come back again later with more thoughts… for now though, I’d be staying in Sydney if I wanted a wave.
Have a great day!

Waiting for a knee high beachy peak

Bomb set hits (note the horizon bump!)

La vida surfing

In between the rare sets at Crescent Head this morning


Scattered clouds tiny waves

Posted on April 26th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

There’s a gale warning for 15-25 kts of NW this morning going SW 25-30 kts with periods to 40 kts this afternoon. Swell’s supposed to pick up too, but at daybreak it was 1.4m from the SE at around 8 seconds apart. That meant waves at Dee Why were knee to maybe waist. And there’s little from the other buoys up and down the coast that indicates any immediate hope of a size improvement – yet.
Tide hits a 1.75m high at 0755 and is back to the low at 1400 when the wind ought to be well and truly in full cry.
While the Bureau is warning of dangerous surf conditions across the next three days, some of the models aren’t quite as hopeful, predicting instead only a relatively modest size boost. So, guarded optimism…
Nevertheless, your correspondent is taking a punt on there being waves up the coast over the next few days, so expect a postcard or two in due course.
Go well with your Wednesday everyone!

Several wave hunters chasing little lines at 0645

Sets hint at more to come

Weather Situation
A low will develop over the southwestern Tasman Sea today in the wake of a cold front, bringing a vigorous south to southwesterly change to replace a west to northwest flow along the entire coast. Winds are expected to gradually ease during Thursday as the low moves towards New Zealand and a high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge to the western Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots tending west to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 40 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Becoming cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 27 April
Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 40 knots early in the morning.
Seas
3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southwesterly 2.5 to 4 metres, tending southerly 3 to 5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 28 April
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending west to southwesterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 5 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Crescent showing promise

Posted on April 26th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Close together really sectiony but head high sets on incoming tide at dusk


Quiet early

Posted on April 25th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The ocean wasn’t doing much as Anzac Day dawned. There was high overcast early and it’s expected to rain by this afternoon. Wind was light early but we’re in for a fair amount of it later from the NW by this evening. Swell was coming from the east and was about a metre at 10 seconds – which wasn’t doing anything much for Dee Why as the pictures show. The Bureau says it should keep coming from that direction, but to pick up a little.
Tomorrow the Bureau has hoisted a gale warning for NW to SW wind and combined south and east swell which are expected to lead to “large and powerful surf conditions” and then on Thursday the intensity jumps significantly as the swell goes from 2-3 m to 3-5 metres with 25-35kts of SW wind. Friday should see the swell dropping back into the 2 metre range. Beyond that it basically looks as though we should have waves of some sort into early next week.
Today’s tides saw a high of 1.7 metres at 0700 and low will come along at 1315.
Have a reflective Anzac Day everyone.

Only a faint hint of a bump at No Mans 0735

Overcast skies and micro on Anzac Day morning

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. The high is expected to weaken and move east as a cold front approaches from the southwest. Winds will shift northerly and increase today, before the front brings a gusty west to southwesterly change during Wednesday. In the wake of this system, a low pressure system may develop over the Tasman Sea, bringing strong to gale force winds to parts of the New South Wales coast.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending northwesterly 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore during this afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 26 April
Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 25 knots turning west to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the morning and early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the late afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 27 April
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots.
Seas
2 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Monday morning good for anything but surfing

Posted on April 24th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A beautiful almost still morning as the day started in Dee Why. Only one thing was missing, as you can see from the piccie.

For the record, the MHL buoy was detecting a metre of 11-sec SSE at 0600, so in theory there could be a knee to waist high bump at magnet banks. Tide was a 1.7m high at 0615 and will be low again in 1235.

From the shape of the forecasts models, today’s the low point for swell energy and from tomorrow we should see the numbers improve slightly and then to notch up a bit more on Wednesday before really ramping Thursday (as in hitting 3+ metres potentially in the afternoon).

So enjoy the sunny weather, we have rain tomorrow and beyond that, surf prospects beckon…

Nice morning to take the SUP for a cruise

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. The high is expected to weaken during Monday and move east as a cold front approaches from the southwest. Wind will shift northerly and increase later today and Tuesday, before the front brings a gusty west to southwesterly change during Wednesday. In the wake of this system, a low pressure system may develop over the Tasman Sea, bringing strong to gale force winds to parts of the New South Wales coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
40% chance of showers this morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.
Tuesday 25 April
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northwesterly in the evening. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 26 April
Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 25 knots turning westerly 30 to 35 knots during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters


Tiny waves this morning

Posted on April 23rd, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
A warm and sunny Sunday morning sees only knee and a bit high waves at Dee Why as of 0800. Wind was WSW and light, while the MHL buoy was picking up a metre of 7-sec SE wind bump. Tide was high at 0525 and is now dropping to a low at 1150.
Wind should be light this morning before picking up a touch and swinging to the S-SE.
Outlook is for tomorrow to be about the same size again but there seems to be a possibility of a little bump on Anzac Day. Happily from Wednesday onward is looking increasingly hopeful for good to very good conditions. Some models are showing the 2-3m SSE energy and mainly SW wind sticking around through to Tuesday – and beyond!
Have a great day one and all.

Looking little at No Mans 0800

Catchable knee high waves at 0800

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the north coast. The high will slowly move east over the next few days, directing generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast, apart from a brief and weak southerly change along the southern half of the coast today. Winds will shift stronger southwesterly during Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly in the afternoon day then becoming north to northeasterly at night.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to below 1 metre offshore.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore during the morning and afternoon.
Monday 24 April
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the morning.
Tuesday 25 April
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Glassy little bumps for the keen

Posted on April 22nd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Light NNW wind before 0700 under high overcast skies. Waist and a bit high glassy bumps at magnet peaks from Dee Why to Longy and from south Narrabeen to Northy. Windswell 1.3 metres and coming mainly from the SE with a choppy and gutless period of about 6 seconds. As a consequence waves were pretty slow for the most part. Tide was high at 0430 and will be low at 1110. By then the forecast says we can expect the NEr to have kicked in – which will reduce surf options substantially.
The marginal to tiny settings look likely to persist until around Wednesday when some of the models show us getting a pulse of metre plus 10-11 sec east. Thursday and Friday are again looking hopeful with a 2-3 metre straight south coming together (in the most hopeful scenarios) with cool but nice weather and SW wind. If the predictions come to pass, we could see solid south to SSE swell through to next Monday. Whoo hoo!
So get out there for a stay in shape paddle over the next few days, ’cause it just might be interesting later

Longy brief peak

Whiterock chaotic looking

Dee Why at 0645

Lugga excitement

Near the pole

Northy had a little peak or two

Far north Collaroy empty

Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking
No warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Saturday 22 April 2017.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to remain slow-moving over the Tasman Sea for the next several days, directing generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A brief and weak southerly change is expected along the southern half of the coast on Sunday, after which winds will return to northeasterly on Monday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the morning and early afternoon. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon, then decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Sunday 23 April
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere.
Monday 24 April
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending northerly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters

This forecast is also available via scheduled broadcasts on marine radio.
Latest Coastal Observations
Tide Predictions
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:05 pm EST Saturday.
Product I


Smooth and small at Dee Why

Posted on April 21st, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another beautiful morning in Sydney with little knee and a bit waves trickling in from the south at 0730. The MHL buoy was picking up a metre of 11-sec stuff from 178 degrees. It was too small for the point to produce anything, so you’re confined to the magnet peaks at south exposures.
Tide’s low at 1020 and will be back to high at 1630. Wind will be light for a little longer but by lunch it should be NE at 15-20 kts, which will obviously have consequences for the quality.
As for the outlook, well, may I direct you to the Goat’s latest remarks…
Have a great Friday everyone!

Little lines at 0710

Sets in the waist high range

Lone SUP’r on the point

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to remain slow-moving over the Tasman Sea for the next several days, directing generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A brief and weak southerly change is expected along the southern half of the coast on Sunday.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Saturday 22 April
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northerly 15 to 20 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers offshore, 40% chance elsewhere.
Sunday 23 April
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters


 

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