TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on October 19th, 2017

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 October 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fab weather today… Sunny, 26, Noreaster pushing in some waves at the right places/ right tides.

But if you’re making hay, then you might want to get stuck into it, because the Bureau is saying there’s a 100 % chance it’ll get wet tomorrow!  That’s a pretty big call.

Meanwhile, what’ll it do for the surf??  In the morning it’ll still be NE windswell, then as the forecast Southerly arrives it’ll be all chopped up and messy, then later when you’re going to bed it’ll start to pick up a bit. But don’t fret…Then it’ll settle into a windy dead southerly swell day and you might decide to stay in bed.

Maybe come out of hibernation Sunday, but with onshore conditions making it pretty ordinary you might want to have a fallback activity to surfing.

If you’re lucky enough there might be some little waves and better weather during the week.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range from the North East, ahead of a Southerly change that’ll just mess things up

Saturday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range, choppy and windy and cool at dead South spots

Sunday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: about 1 metre or so South East

Wednesday: 1 metre or less South East

Thursday: ditto East.

Nice little story Don found here>>>

Hang ten (decades): Walter Munk, inventor of the surf forecast, turns 100

Have fun!

But not yet if you’re makin’ hay!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 19 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 19 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.861,151.198,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18 according to the MHL buoy but it’s warmer than that in the surf.  You can see from the BoM satellite pic: warm water (about 20) nearshore, then a cooler stretch (where the MHL buoy would be) then warmer water further out from that.  (No, the water isn’t really coloured yellow).

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Becoming cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Becoming cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of rain later tonight. Winds northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 20 October

Summary
Min 18
Max 20
Rain. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 100%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, then tending southerly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day and reaching 35 to 45 km/h near the coast.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

 

Saturday 21 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the morning afternoon. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Sunday 22 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Monday 23 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 24 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 25 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Thursday 26 October

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers later in the day. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

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