Archive for January 2018

Postcards from Cali: we get swell

Posted on January 17th, 2018 in Surf Reports.

Deveraux Point this morning.

 

Hello Friends,

Finding it difficult to get reports out, so sorry for spotty performance over last week. We got the first solid swell of the season yesterday. Real long periods and wave faces in the head plus range on the bombs.

Looks as though Sydney’s getting hit with some pretty hefty south swell today and tomorrow – but with heaps of south wind too. North corners that like south could be the go tomorrow from the look of the forecast. Swell seems likely to peak today for you and to taper off to smallish by the weekend. Same thing happening here oddly enough.

Go well and I’ll try to share a few more piccies as I am able!

California Street in Ventura showing winter lines

Western Goleta CA

Western Goleta CA

Western Goleta CA


Postcards from Cali #3

Posted on January 14th, 2018 in Surf Reports.

See if this sounds familiar… it’s really tiny but skies are blue and air is mild. A solid swell is expected in the next 24-48 hours and I’m at a favourite spot. No one’s out because it’s nearly flat. But every ten minutes or so a tiny but possibly catchable line rolls in. It might be thigh high. Maybe. I’m a 20 minute walk from the spot. Do I chance it and make the hike or do I wait for tomorrow when the swell should be starting to show?

(Above) Maybe thigh high little peak every 15-20 min

The set up


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 13th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

 

 

Sunday Update

Don’t think you’re getting this treatment all the time… It’s just cause Don’s clearly busy on the other side of the Pacific.

When I first looked at my own little weather station at home it read 16 outside.  I thought it must be wrong, but the BoM says Sydney Airport on the coast right now is 17.8 with an apparent temp of 9.8!

While the sky is patchy as is the wind, at the airport it’s registering 52 kph gusts from SW.

The surf’s coming up but is messy.  Offshore it’s 3-6 metres from due South with 6-8 second periods.

The wind and the wave size will increase through the day. Showers, max 23 and ‘becoming windy’.

Have a good one doing something else.

TG

Saturday Update

For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

 

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary
Max 33
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

 

Sunday 14 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Showers easing. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h, reaching 50 km/h along the coast.


Today

Posted on January 13th, 2018 in Surf Reports.
Saturday
For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Postcards from Cali-No. 2

Posted on January 12th, 2018 in At large.

 

Hello Friends,

A few snaps for you from Santa Barbara and thereabouts…

(above) From Surfline.com’s California Street, Ventura cam at dusk today. Very little showing in the way of swell along the southern California coast. We’re hoping for a gradual improvement tomorrow…

With all roads between Santa Barbara and Ventura closed, the local tourist ferry operators who usually take people on day trips to the Channel Islands are running boatloads of commuters up and down the coast. It takes about 1:30 hrs to go from Ventura to Santa Barbara. Once the Freeway is opened on Monday (we hope) the trips will stop. That breakwater in the background is the one at Santa Barbara where the Kirra-esque Sandspit take off is (when there’s swell!)

Just an odd looking frame of my board shooting into the air at the end of a wave. I surfed yesterday at Campus Point in Santa Barbara. Waves were super gutless and on this occasion I just let the board sink until it popped up again.

My shadow self-portrait on a knee high dribbler at Campus. Water about 15C, air 20C.

More tomorrow I hope


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 11th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday Update

For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

 

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 11 01:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 11 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22 in Sydney, 25 Byron, 23 Eden

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
Mostly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly cloudy.Sydney26
Mostly cloudy.Penrith31
Mostly cloudy.Liverpool30
Mostly cloudy.Terrey Hills26
Mostly cloudy.Richmond30
Mostly cloudy.Parramatta29
Mostly cloudy.Campbelltown30
Mostly cloudy.Bondi23

 

Friday 12 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Saturday 13 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 31
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h shifting west to southwesterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 14 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then increasing to 25 to 40 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 15 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the morning.

Tuesday 16 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 17 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.


Postcards from Cali: crazy weather

Posted on January 10th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Diamond Head and rainbow

.

Let’s get the Sydney surf situation taken care of before the postcards…

At 0950 there was a light and steady 7-9 kt SSE breeze knocking the top off another day of gutless and tiny wind bump. That said, it does appear from the cams that it’s a touch bigger (ankle to waist) than when I last saw it. If you have to miss it, you aren’t missing much of anything. Judging from the forecast models, the situation should stumble along more or less as it is until Friday when there might be a little south pulse with NE wind combo.

The long range models are showing prospects for an intense south swell event, but it’ll likely be smashed by the wind (also south) for a couple days before possibly settling down into some fun conditions mid next week.

The flight from Oz to the US west coast involved a brief stop in Honolulu, so I can report that there was very little if anything showing on the town side. Did get a nice picture of Diamond Head and a rainbow as we climbed out again for the leg to LA.

Got into California after dark so didn’t get a look at the (non) surf situation until yesterday. No hope of a wave sadly. And the same again today (see below).

California had it’s first significant rain event in 300 days last night. We saw 75-100 mm and because of the terrible fires of a couple of weeks ago, there’s nothing on the hillsides to stop the water from carrying huge amounts of mud and debris down onto the coastal plain. As I write this the 101 Freeway that runs along the coast near where the fires were is still closed from all the stuff coming off the hills and mountains. It’s a really big deal and we’re still waiting to hear what sort of death toll there’s been. 8 people were killed by mudslides in the Montecito area just south of Santa Barbara – and there may be more. Helicopters have been flying over our place all day as they help with the rescue efforts. Scary stuff.

Hope you’re staying safe and well!

 

Weather Situation

A trough along the mid north coast is slowly moving northward, with northerly winds shifting southerly in its wake. The trough is expected to stall on the far north coast on Thursday and then dissipate, as a high pressure system moves east over the southern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge to the coast. This will cause winds to shift north to northeasterly throughout by Friday, freshening ahead of the next front, which will bring a vigorous southerly change to the coast during the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 11 January

Winds
East to southeasterly below 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 12 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Northy better than Dee Why

Posted on January 7th, 2018 in North Narrabeen, Surf Reports.

30 plus in the water at Northy where there are actually little catchable waves every now and then. Competition looks fierce for the soft and slow waist high sets. Heaps of families strolling past as I watch. Cooling the kids off ahead of the heat. Summer time.

Not sure if I’ll have a report for you tomorrow but if i do it’ll be from the other side of the Pacific.

Catchy soon and stay cool!


Hot early and tiny but

Posted on January 7th, 2018 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Thought I’d beat the heat with an early bike ride. At Dee Why as I tap this out. There are people in the water all along the beach. Main attraction is keeping cool as for most part it’s too gutless and micro to catch – even on a mal. Tide is low and wind not a factor yet.

Guess I’ll ride up to Northy for a look…


Barely anything and mostly flat

Posted on January 6th, 2018 in At large.

Chasing tiny bumps on low tide at Northy 0620          .

Hello Friends,

Low tide early and light NE breeze ruffling the surface for the dawn patrol. The only place I saw a wave ridden was at Northy where, as the pic above shows, it was struggling to make the knee high mark. As the tide comes in to a 1.8 m high at 1230, the wind will ramp up and so it just may be possible to find a fat little bump somewhere. However, you’ll really need to dial down your expectations for anything beyond barely catchable dribble.

As of 0400 the MHL buoy was showing a metre of sub-6 sec SSE chop. And it looks as though the microscopic conditions prevail up and down the entire East Coast.

We’re in for an absolute stinker tomorrow but there might be a bit more NE wind chop to chase for the early. It’s set to go SE in the afternoon – which ought to help with the heat, but won’t do the tiny surf any favours.

From the look of the models, next week is going to be really small to flat with only short period and small wind chop.  One of the more hopeful data interpretations is showing some slight hope for south magnets on Wednesday morning. Hope for your sake that it plays out that way. I’ll of course be looking for a wave in southern California where at the moment it’s also really small – and cold. Postcards to come!

Have a great Saturday everyone!

 

South Narra nothin’

.

Marquesas micro bumps

.

At least he’s getting some exercise – near the pole 0630

.

All’s quiet at Dee Why

.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A low pressure trough is expected to bring a southerly change to the southern half of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 7 January

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 8 January

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending northwest to northeasterly during the morning then tending northeast to southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

 

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