Archive for March 2019

Perfect conditions but pretty small

Posted on March 31st, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A gorgeous morning as Sunday gets going. Wind was coming from the west at 10-15 kts as of 0830. Waves looked to be in the knee to maybe waist high range at Dee Why. Swell is dead south at 2 metres but only 8 seconds apart, so better exposed spots might be a touch bigger than Dee Why this morning.

Tide was high at 0555 and is currently dropping about a metre to the 0.58 m low at 1240. By then the wind should be going harder than it is now. Looking at the buoy data from down south suggests that we’re not likely to see any significant change to the swell energy levels across the day. If anything, the strong offshores might work against us. However, both the ECM and Wavewatch show it gradually increasing a little overnight, so maybe tomorrow morning will be more interesting…

As for the rest of the week, it looks as though we should have little waves but nothing too intense and mostly in the knee to waist range.

Have a great Sunday everyone!

Kiddies at 0820

Breaking close to the beach

Little lines at No Mans

————

Weather Situation

A high pressure system in the Bight is extending a ridge across New South Wales, in the wake of a vigorous cold front. The high will drift slowly east during the next few days, maintaining southeast to southwesterly winds over most waters today and Monday, shifting northerly in some parts during Tuesday as the high reaches the Tasman Sea. A weak trough looks set to move over the coast mid-week.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore in the morning, turning southwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 1 April

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Tuesday 2 April

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday afternoon snaps

Posted on March 30th, 2019 in At large.

Sunny skies, powering offshores and a swell trying its best to get in…

No Mans set 1700

Get my good side, Long Reef

Working a little one right to the sand, Northy 1650

Sweeping cutty, Northy 1645

Looking mighty fine. Cooks Tce, 1630


Rain at first light but a little wave activity

Posted on March 30th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Update: rain backed off enough to take some piccies…

0910 at Dee Why

0910 at Dee Why

0910 at Dee Why

Hello Friends,
Too rainy to get a picture early, but it seems that there is some small wave potenital thanks to the swell coming up into the 2.5 m range from the east. Period was only 8 seconds though, which means wave faces at the better spots will likely be chest to shoulder plus on the sets.
Tide was a moderate 1.48 m high at 0455 and is currently dropping to a 0.6 m low at 1150. Wind early was coming from the WSW at 4-5 kts. The Bureau has a gale warning up for 20-30 kts of northerly soon, but that should go W-SW this afternoon as the skies clear.

I’m planning to keep an eye on it for later…

And speaking of later, tomorrow continues to look hopeful on the models. The Bureau says we can expect strong offshores, sunny skies and an increasing south swell during the morning. It also looks like we might have waves in the waist plus range give or take right through the week, albeit with showers off and on across much of the period.

Have a great Saturday!

Weather Situation

A vigorous cold front is bringing a gusty west to southwesterly change to southern New South Wales waters this morning, continuing through to the far north this afternoon and evening. Behind this, a high pressure system will extend a ridge across the state from the west, maintaining southeast to southwesterly winds through Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday the high is forecast to be over the Tasman Sea, with the next change expected mid-week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots turning west to southwesterly in the afternoon, reaching 35 knots offshore.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, reaching 4 metres offshore in the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 2 metres during the day.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of rain. A thunderstorm likely, mainly morning.

Sunday 31 March

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore in the morning, tending south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly below 1 metre by evening.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 1 April

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of shower

Tiny at Northy

Posted on March 29th, 2019 in At large.

Out for a ride and stopped by N. Narrabeen for a look. About 20 people in the water chasing knee to waist high and kinda soft little waves.


Barely there bumps for the keen

Posted on March 29th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Beautiful start to Friday with scattered cloud, light breezes and just a hint of cool in the air as I climbed aloft to get a look at things. Down at Dee Why there were a few folk in the water just north of the club where it appeared they were chasing knee high little wavelets. Given the direction, you might find a tiny improvement in the better north corners, but don’t expect anything much above waist high. The Sydney directional spectrum chart from 0500 was showing 1.1 metres of 12-sec south (162-172°) swell out at sea. Tide is currently dropping to the low at 1050.

Weatherwise we’re heading to a high of 28C and a possible late shower. The current light winds will settle around to the NE as it builds to 15-20 kts for the afternoon.

As always, the Goat has rolled out his weekly prognostication on matters surfing overnight. Check out the words of wisdom here.

Not much going on Friday morning

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over New Zealand will continue moving east today, extending a ridge to the north coast, and bringing a southeast to northeast flow to the New South Wales waters. A cold front will bring a strong and gusty south to southwesterly wind change to southern parts of the coast on Saturday before extending north on Sunday. Winds will tend to the southeast later on Monday as a high pressure system moves into the Tasman.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm later tonight.

Saturday 30 March

Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots turning westerly in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 35 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Below 0.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain and the chance of a thunderstorm.

Sunday 31 March

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots tending southwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning then east to southeasterly about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on March 28th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 March 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fabulous weather… blue skies, sunshine, warm air, warm water, and some waves every now and again depending on tides and banks, and setty waves too. More challenging for those of us who can’t get to their feet as quickly as we used to, but lots of fun for those who can.

A few ups and downs in the week ahead but there’ll be waves at certain places and times and sometimes with offshore winds.

Friday: around 1-1.5 metres South East, with occasional sets from dead South

Saturday:  somewhere in the 1-2 metre range from North East

Sunday: around 2 metres or so at places open to dead South swell (with offshore wind)

Monday: ditto (but with light winds, turning SE later)

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: around mid range 1-2 metres at places open to dead South with East South East sets

Thursday: dittoish South East

Keep on surfing…. or paddling around. The water’s nice. Read the rest of this entry »


Interesting little perk in energy

Posted on March 28th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell seems to have come up a little overnight and is now into the rideable range with both the point and the beach seeing waist high sets. The MHL buoy shows that the swell hasn’t increased in size particualrly (it’s around 1.4 metres from the dead south) but the period ranges from 9 to 15 seconds. Water out at the buoy is 24C.

First tide of the day is a low at 0940 and the high rolls back in at 1535.

Being a Thursday, we can look forward to the Goat’s thoughts on the surf week ahead, so I’ll just say that I’m going to be interested on his take on Sunday’s prospects. The ECM and GFS are both showing W-SW wind for the morning, but Wavewatch is showing a more interesting swell prediction (south 2.5 metres @12s) than the ECM ( south 1.7m @ 8s).

Have a top old Thursday one and all!

Up and riding at the point 0755

Little wave escapes the waiting crew

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the central Tasman Sea will move east towards New Zealand during the next couple of days, extending a ridge to the north coast, and bringing a southeast to northeast flow to the New South Wales waters. A cold front will bring a strong and gusty southwesterly wind change to southern parts of the coast on Saturday before extending north on Sunday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 29 March

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the evening.

Saturday 30 March

Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots turning westerly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
1st Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Weak, small and a little junky

Posted on March 27th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Swell’s come up overnight, but the energy seems to all be out at sea where the MHL buoy was seeing 2 metres of 10-sec south swell (164°) even as the waves along the beach looked to be knee to maybe waist high. There were a few people in the water, but I didn’t see anyone catch a wave.
Wind was out of the SW 10-15 kts at sunrise and the first tide of the day was a low at 0835. Ocean temperature is still on 24C.
Outlook is for conditions to stay small today and get smaller tomorrow before possibly coming up late this weekend as a solid south pulse hits and wind goes offshore – according to Wavewatch’s modelling. Alternatively, if the ECM predictions are right, then there is no big pulse but just more of the low energy stuff we’ve been enduring. The Goat will put us right tomorrow evening, I’m sure.
Have a great Wednesday

 

A little line and a few hopefuls at 0720

A few keen types bobbing around up the beach 

 

Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking

No warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Wednesday 27 March 2019.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Great Australian Bight will move east over the Tasman Sea during the next few days, extending a ridge to the New South Wales coast, and bringing a southeast to northeast flow to New South Wales waters. During the weekend, a cold front will bring about a southerly change, extending throughout by late Sunday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 28 March

Winds
Easterly below 10 knots tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots before dawn.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 29 March

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.

On hold, as you were

Posted on March 26th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Sunny and micro this morning at Dee Why

Hello Friends,

If there were waves, this morning would be magic. But as you can see from the picture, there’s no swell at Dee Why. According to the MHL data, it was 0.9 m at 11 seconds from 176° (ie dead south). Wind was out of the west 9-14 kts at report writing time, but it should swing SW and pick up into the 20-25kts ahead of a SE change later. First tide of the day was at 0730 and it’ll be back to high at 1330. Ocean is still 24C and water quality is pretty good at all but a couple of beaches (Longy and North Curly lagoon entrances). It should be sunny all day and is heading to a high of 25.

Outlook is for the swell to stay out of the south through Thursday according to both the ECM and Wavewatch models. The models then diverge from Friday with the ECM predicting easterly bump Friday-Saturday then going back dead south as it spikes briefly Sunday (but stays short-period). Wavewatch sees it staying south with north wind Friday and then heaps of south wind Saturday before going westerly on Sunday. So, should be interesting to see how the Goat sorts out all the strands for us on Thursday.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Weather Situation

A strong cold front over the central coast will continue to move northeast today to reach the far north coast this afternoon. In the wake of this front, a high pressure ridge is expected to build today and during Wednesday as a high centre to the west drifts across southeastern Australia, with winds tending east to southeasterly.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm offshore early this morning. Sunny afternoon.

Wednesday 27 March

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly below 10 knots during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 28 March

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Dropped from small to tiny

Posted on March 25th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Looking flat at Dee Why this morning

Hello Friends,

Short and not so sweet: it’s flat and rainy this morning.

Outlook varies a little between the ECM and Wavewatch driven models, with the latter being a little more optimistic about the prospects late in the week when they see a long period south pulse on Thursday into Friday.

As always, we’ll see what happens… but for today and tomorrow, it’s near flat wherever you look. Have a top old day everybody!

Weather Situation

Ahead of a strong front winds are north to northwesterly. The front is forecast to bring a fresh to strong south to southwesterly change to the southern half of the coast today that will continue through to the far north coast on Tuesday. A high pressure ridge is expected to build in the wake of the front during Tuesday and Wednesday as a high centre to the west drifts across south-eastern Australia, with winds tending east to southeasterly.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Tuesday 26 March

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 27 March

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

 

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