Archive for April 2019

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on April 25th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 25 April 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fabulous weather for ANZAC Day and great to see ever increasing numbers taking a little time out of such a beaut day to pay their respects for those who’ve served their country at Dawn Services and later Commemorations…

Water temp is a very pleasant 23 ish – great for a swim before or after, but not so great fro a surf with very small to nothing conditions.

Tomorrow morning expect something similar first off, then not a lot resulting from a SW change.  Coming up a little through the week – not a lot – at places that are open to dead South, but quality may not be all that great.

Friday: similar to Thursday at first then even more ordinary

Saturday: coming up into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places only

Sunday: a lot of due South in it so could be going straight past.. 1-2 metres

Monday: 1-2 metre range dead South, with some sets

Tuesday: 1-2 metre range  South East with more getting in

Wednesday: going down to around 1 metre or so East

Thursday: down more 1 metre or less East.

There you go.

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Apr 25 07:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Apr 25 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23ish ..very pleasant

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the BoM

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Friday 26 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 27
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. The chance of morning fog, mostly in the west. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Saturday 27 April

Summary
Min 13
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the early morning. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 28 April

Summary
Min 10
Max 23
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Monday 29 April

Summary
Min 11
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Tuesday 30 April

Summary
Min 12
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Wednesday 1 May

Summary
Min 15
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Thursday 2 May

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning


Fine and waveless for Anzac Day

Posted on April 25th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A perfect morning for the Anzac ceremonies in Sydney. Wind was coming faintly from the west before 0800. The MHL buoy was seeing 0.8 of a metre from the east at 9 seconds apart. As the pictures show, the consequence at Dee Why was smooth but flat conditions.

The forecast says we can expect sunny conditions all day as we go to a high of 25. The ocean is 21C according to Beacthwatch and all beaches are suitable for swimming. Tide was low at 0705 and will hit a moderate 1.24 m high at 1300.

The Goat should be along later with an outlook for the week ahead. I hope he sees something encouraging because it’s been a dire start to autumn after an equally dire summer. We’re all getting lots of practice on tiny waves and it’d be nice to have something more challenging…

Go well with your Thursday!

Micro at Dee Why

Smooth sea 0730 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast, while a trough is bringing a southerly change to southern waters today. This trough will weaken overnight, although a strong cold front is forecast to bring a vigorous south to southwesterly change to southern and central waters on Friday, extending to the Queensland border early Saturday. Winds should gradually ease later Saturday and Sunday as a ridge of high pressure from the west becomes the dominant feature over New South Wales.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Friday 26 April

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting west to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day, reaching 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres by evening.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore in the evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 27 April

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy

Beautiful morning but not if you want a wave

Posted on April 24th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Home again for a few days, and hoping for a wave like everyone else, but it looks like we’re outta luck. Ocean at Dee Why looks to be ankle to knee high – on the bigger ones. Swell is about a metre from the east at 8-9 seconds. Wind’s out of the WNW as of 0830, but it should go around to the NE soon.

Be interestng to see what the Goat says about our prospects for the coming week. His words of wisdom should be up by this evening.

Have a top old day, and if you go looking for surf, may you find more than I’m seeing right now!

Tiny wavelet peels into the beach at 0800

Dee Why basking waveless in the sun 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing east to northeasterly winds over much of the coast while a southerly change is forecast to cross the southern half of the coast later Wednesday and during Thursday in association with a front slipping to the south. Then a more significant front is forecast to cross the state on Friday, bringing a fresh to strong south to southwesterly change in its wake. Winds should gradually ease from Saturday as a ridge of high pressure from the west becomes the dominant feature over New South Wales.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 25 April

Winds
North to northwest about 10 knots turning southerly 10 to 15 knots from the late morning or early afternoon, becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Friday 26 April

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning west to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the evening.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


On the way home

Posted on April 23rd, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Stopped in Batemans Bay and got up to find the weather clearing but no sign of any surf prospects. Headed north and checked Golf Course/Mollymook (see below), then Bendalong. No waves at the former, and small but starting to blow out at the latter. Given wind and swell combo decided to check in at Shallows. Haven’t been there this century, so it’s changed a fair amount around there since. Like the farm, it’s getting carpeted with development. But the break’s the same and it woulda been good if we had even 50cm more swell. But we didn’t. So off home again…

Shallows

Shallows: soft sets every 10 mins or so

Bendalong getting chewed by the wind

Path

Golf Course Reef too tiny to surf


on the road, heading east

Posted on April 22nd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Light NE breeze as of 0700 in Sydney this Monday morning. The latest MHL data shows 1.4 metres of east swell at just under 10 seconds apart. Looking at various cams around Sydney this morning reveals that those numbers are translating into smoothish, but weak and lumpy little knee to waist high plus waves around the place. Stretches best aligned to the swell direction are seeing the occasional chest high face on take off. Not the greatest conditions, but you could get wet.

Tide is coming into a 1.5 metre high at 1030 this morning. Should be a mostly fine day with a high of 26. According to Beachwatch, the current water temp is a pleasant 21C.

Tomorrow should be showery with more of the current marginal bump. The just-surfable conditions should persist through the middle of the week, but the trend is gradually downward. The latest long range projections show it staying small through into next week.

In grey Gippsland this morning, about to roll east toward the coast, leaving Vicco behind. Just checked the situation at Bells and it seems there’s just enough swell for them to start throwing some heats in the water. Judging from the cams along that coast, it’s in the waist plus range, a bit sideshore and bumpy. Latest swell forecast is showing some hope for a bit more size in the Torquay surf zone late in the week.

Hope to have a postcard to share later today… so check back later and have a top old Monday!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is maintaining a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, and directing east to northeasterly winds over most coastal areas. Meanwhile, a low pressure trough is moving into the state’s west, associated with a cold front passing to the south. This trough will bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast today, continuing through to central waters on Tuesday before stalling and decaying. Following this, the Tasman high is expected to have a brief return to dominance, before another trough and southerly change in the second half of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this evening.

Tuesday 23 April

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Winds inshore may briefly turn southerly about 10 knots during the morning hours.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Wednesday 24 April

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm

Postcards from Phillip Island

Posted on April 21st, 2019 in At large.

From today, an hour after the swell started filling in and a couple hours before the sky clouded over as the front arrived…

Phillip Island reef

Woolami set lines

Woolami

Woolami

Woolami

Woolami

Smiths

Smiths


Postcards from Vicco

Posted on April 21st, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Actually got some small waves at 13th Beach yesterday. Water about 18 too, so not bad in a springy.

Summery weather at micro Bells

Winkipop set

Traveller self portrait at Winkipop

13th Beach

Eastern end 13th Beach

Moon popping out of building in Melbourne last night

Climate change in action. Around 10 degrees above normal


Should be a little wave this morning

Posted on April 20th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looking like another sunny day down here in Melbourne. Sadly the swell models earlier this week were wildly off the mark and we’ve just learned that the Bells contest is having another lay day. They could use the conditions you’re seeing in Sydney. Speaking of which, there should be a few fun waist to chest plusses at east-optimal spots today – ie, pretty much everywhere in the Sydney region. The cleanest conditions will be early when the full tide will also be a factor. As of 0630 wind along the beaches of Sydney was coming lightly from the west. It should stay light for the early session but gradually come around to the E-NE by lunch time. As of 0500 the MHL buoy was detecting 1.3 metres of 10-second swell from the E by ESE. That means it’s at about the same intensity as yesterday evening, but not as big, or south as Friday morning’s session.

The first tide of the daylight hours is a swampy 1.7 m high at 0850. That’ll drain away to 0.35 low at 1455.

Outlook is for wind to be more around to the NE tomorrow and Monday and for the swell energy to fade somewhat. Tomorrow morning could be fun for the early (tide not withstanding), but probably a little smaller than today.

The new week looks small and fading toward tinyness by Friday. But then, if the models have it right, we could see a potentially solid south swell event around Saturday.

We’re planning to drive down to Bells later today, so I may have a postcard or two to share…

Saturday getting started in Melbourne…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, whilst a trough offshore weakens. Little change to this pattern is expected until a cold front skims southeastern Australia on Monday, bringing a southerly change to the southern half of the coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. Winds inshore tending southerly about 10 knots until the afternoon.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Sunday 21 April

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre later in the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 22 April

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Looking micro in Sydney

Posted on April 19th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Greetings from country Victoria where your correspondent is currently heading south to Bells. Should get there about midday, which will be when they make the call to start the day’s heats – or not. If possible I’ll post some pictures.

As for Sydney, the MHL buoy is showing 1.3 metre SSW wind bump at 7 seconds and the BoM says wind as of 0800 is light south. High tide is peaking at a swampy 1.8 metres. Wind should stay light and variable and apparent swell direction should be east – but gutless and tiny.

As for the outlook, well it’s Friday, so the Goat has rolled out a fresh forecast to have with your hot cross buns this morning!

Have a good Good Friday everybody.

 

Good Friday, Rutherglen 

Weather Situation

A trough along the coast will decay today as a high pressure system near Tasmania strengthens a ridge across the area, directing south to southeasterly winds before tending northeasterly in the south later today. Little change is expected to this pattern until a cold front skims southeast Australia on Monday, resulting in a southerly change along the southern half of the coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the late morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Saturday 20 April

Winds
East to northeasterly below 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Sunday 21 April

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on April 18th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 18 April 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Beaut weather for the school hols.  Hope everyone’s having a good time… kids, mums and dads and others.

Whether you’re in Sydney or up the coast, where a lot of people seem to have gone, there looks like being waves of some sort everywhere for the coming week. Mostly medium to small from outta Easterlyish directions, but waves for a bit of fun nevertheless.

Surf outlook for Sydney:

Friday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East North East

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: ditto

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: similar but more South East

Wednesday: ditto East South East

Thursday: down a little say 1- 1+ metres from the East.

Have a Happy Easter.

And Remember the Diggers on Anzac Day.

TG.

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Apr 18 03:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Apr 18 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 21, 22.

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly sunny.Sydney26
Mostly sunny.Penrith28
Mostly sunny.Liverpool27
Mostly sunny.Terrey Hills24
Mostly sunny.Richmond27
Mostly sunny.Parramatta27
Mostly sunny.Campbelltown27
Mostly sunny.Bondi24

Friday 19 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower and the chance of a thunderstorm. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Saturday 20 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Sunday 21 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Monday 22 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Tuesday 23 April

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Wednesday 24 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower later in the day. Light winds

 


 

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