Should be a little wave this morning

Posted by: on April 20th, 2019

Hello Friends,

Looking like another sunny day down here in Melbourne. Sadly the swell models earlier this week were wildly off the mark and we’ve just learned that the Bells contest is having another lay day. They could use the conditions you’re seeing in Sydney. Speaking of which, there should be a few fun waist to chest plusses at east-optimal spots today – ie, pretty much everywhere in the Sydney region. The cleanest conditions will be early when the full tide will also be a factor. As of 0630 wind along the beaches of Sydney was coming lightly from the west. It should stay light for the early session but gradually come around to the E-NE by lunch time. As of 0500 the MHL buoy was detecting 1.3 metres of 10-second swell from the E by ESE. That means it’s at about the same intensity as yesterday evening, but not as big, or south as Friday morning’s session.

The first tide of the daylight hours is a swampy 1.7 m high at 0850. That’ll drain away to 0.35 low at 1455.

Outlook is for wind to be more around to the NE tomorrow and Monday and for the swell energy to fade somewhat. Tomorrow morning could be fun for the early (tide not withstanding), but probably a little smaller than today.

The new week looks small and fading toward tinyness by Friday. But then, if the models have it right, we could see a potentially solid south swell event around Saturday.

We’re planning to drive down to Bells later today, so I may have a postcard or two to share…

Saturday getting started in Melbourne…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, whilst a trough offshore weakens. Little change to this pattern is expected until a cold front skims southeastern Australia on Monday, bringing a southerly change to the southern half of the coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. Winds inshore tending southerly about 10 knots until the afternoon.
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Sunday 21 April

Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre later in the evening.
Partly cloudy.

Monday 22 April

Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

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