Archive for July 2019

Scenes from the beach…

Posted on July 16th, 2019 in Surf Reports.
Pre-swim socialising…..

Cafe peak……


Coming up – or not?

Posted on July 16th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
As of 0300 there was no sign of the 2.5-3 m swell per the Bureau’s call in this morning’s forecast. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.3 m of sse swell at close to 11 seconds. There didn’t seem to be much down south either. So, will it kick up? Hard to say, but my guess is that the dawn patrol won’t see anything too dramatic. First tide’s a high about 0800. Wind was a steady westerly of around 10 kts at 0400, and predawn temp was a toasty 10-11C. Should waarm up to 20C later. Ocean’s still on 19C too.
Outlook is for surfable conditions across the next three days…
Meanwhile here in soCal another south west pulse is lighting up southern Orange county, so your correspondent plans to make a trek to the intensely crowded peaks of Trestles…will he even get a wave?

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near the Bight is extending a ridge toward New South Wales, while a front over the western Tasman Sea moves east, maintaining southwesterly winds across the coast. Westerly winds will increase on Wednesday as another front skims across the southeast later Wednesday into early Thursday, and this front will be followed by a somewhat weaker front early Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Westerly 20 to 25 knots tending southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 17 July

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending westerly 15 to 25 knots before dawn then increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 18 July

Winds
West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Sunny.

POSTCARD FROM CALI

Lowers with 40+ on head plus reeling lefts and rights.


Wisdom of the bus

Posted on July 15th, 2019 in At large.

Today we are transitioning between two south swells. Decent waves somewhere but getting them will require a bit of hunting. Perfect winter weather. Water still warm enough for a swim.

North of Mona Vale…..swell showing but straightish. Better options further up the peninsula. North Palmy had decent banks on the w/e.


Straight south for Sydney

Posted on July 14th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks as though swell pulsed up overnight and this morning was coming from dead south at a couple of metres and 8-10 seconds apart. Wind was westerly under sunny skies but with an air temp of around 10C. Water is still on 19C though. Best shot will be the south magnets we all know and love. Next tide is a low at noon. Swell is set to fade across the day says the Bureau, but there should be stuff in the waist to maybe chest at standouts.

Tomorrow looks interesting according to the Bureau: 3-5 metres of south plus stiff SW wind!

It’s the weekend in SoCal too and we’re seeing a slight uptick locally. I grabbed a few snaps (see below) coming back from visiting a mate in Ventura. Clean, glassy, knee to waist plus depending on where you were. I didn’t have a board though. Making a plan for a more ambitious wave hunt day after tomorrow…

Weather Situation

A series of cold fronts have been moving through New South Wales, generating periods of vigorous west to southwesterly winds. The next of these fronts is due to cross New South Wales waters late today and early Monday, followed by another front on Wednesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning westerly in the morning. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon, then decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 15 July

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots turning southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 16 July

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning westerly during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Ok size on these beachy shutdowns just up from Ventura Overhead.

Backside Rincon just barely showing (top of the point is on left)

Beachbreak just west of Rincon


Surf? I don’t think so

Posted on July 13th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Not a Saturday to be up early for a wave. The MHL buoy was showing only 0.6 m or short period wind chop from the north as of daybreak. Wind was 10-25 kts from the WNW and air temps were around the 13C mark as of 0630. So, flat, blasting offshores and cold. Lovely.

If you’re checking in before 0730, you should tune into ABC 702 for the Goat’s words of wisdom on the week ahead surf prospects. From my reading of the runes, you should be waxing up the stick again in a few days’ time…

Similarly dire on the surf prospects for the Santa Barbara area, but north and south of the Channel Islands’ swell shadow, there is a little activity

Have a top old Saturday!

Weather Situation

A cold front will move through New South Wales waters today, accompanied by a vigorous west to southwesterly wind shift. A second front is forecast to clip southeastern Australia late Sunday and early Monday. Following this, winds will gradual ease as a high pressure system slowly approaches from the west.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning west to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the morning. Winds reaching up to 35 knots at times.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Sunday 14 July

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots turning westerly during the middle of the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 15 July

Winds
Westerly 25 to 35 knots turning southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the late morning and afternoon, tending southwesterly and easing to 15 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 4 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

The busman busses on

Posted on July 12th, 2019 in At large.

Classic winter’s morning at Lake Placid (near Newport). A day for walking and swimming. Better days ahead for surfing.

Lake Placid


Surfless in Sydney, super small in So Cal

Posted on July 12th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks like a great day to catch up on the non-surfing aspects of your life today in Sydney. Not that it matters, but wind was 10-25kts from the NNW at a little after 0700. The Sydney buoy hasn’t reported in since midnight, but from the shape of the other reports, you’re probably into the sub one metre at sea zone. Tide’s heading to a low at 1025 and the wind is set to pick up as the day goes along. Not much hope of a wave today, but have a look at the Goat’s latest because he has some glad tidings to share…

Postcards below…

Weather Situation

Vigorous west to northwesterly winds are being generated ahead of a cold front. This front will bring a vigorous southwesterly change to southern parts late tonight and extend north on Saturday. A second front is forecast to clip southeastern Australia late Sunday and early Monday. After this, winds will gradually ease as a high pressure system slowly approaches from the west.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 13 July

Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwesterly 25 to 30 knots turning west to southwesterly during the day. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the morning.
Swell
South to southwesterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 14 July

Winds
West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Lower Trestles this morning before the wind and swell fade. Perfect for the 30 or so chasing reeling lefts and rights…

Steamer Lane in Santa Cruz on a windy afternoon where it’s glassy and setty at the slot

Ventura this afternoon, sideshore, weak and small (but not as small as Santa Barbara)

Wave magnet Huntington Beach still seeing head high sets this afternoon in the onshores.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 11th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday Surf Report

Hey Don – Simon ran out of time to talk this morning on 702! First time that’s happened.

Anyway everyone – here’s the Saturday surf report 🙂 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It’s flat as a tack..barely a ripple.

Some blue sky and occasional bright sunshine breaking through the clouds… couple of drops of water.

Wind is West at  around 50kph and while the air temp is 12 the wind chill is keeping the apparent temp down to 2!

Flat, cold, windy… back to bed!

The last few days have been really pretty to look at – blue skies, nice lines on the ocean suggesting swell, but the waves have been a bit deceptive at times – they’ve looked like they’ll break, but don’t. Or they look like you need to take a couple of extra paddles to make sure you’re on, but next thing you’ve fallen over the front of the board down the wave…unless you’re young, fit and agile and you can handle anything, and you don’t have to worry about the wind blowing your wig off.  It has been a bit windy!

The banks are pretty straight across a lot of beaches at the moment so that doesn’t create much of a rideable wave at low or high tide. This has meant frustration, so a lot of people simply haven’t bothered to go in the water, despite it being school holidays.

Today  the Bureau of Meteorology’s Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast has a Gale warning (NW/W/SW), with Seas of 2 to 3 metres, Swell Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.

But the Gale force NW/W/SW wind looks like keeping the bigger swell out of the coast, and the due South swell direction means it will go straight past Sydney. The later South West direction will push it out into the Tasman… so I’m expecting the surf to stay flat or less than 1 metre

But there are always other things you can do at the beach on a sunny day if you want to burn off some energy, like take a run or a brisk walk or a paddle in the breeze or a swim… And the BoM says, despite the sunny day, “Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]”… Isn’t that interesting.

If you just want a surf, you might want to stay in bed and plan something else today.

For tomorrow, the BoM forecast is for “Seas of 2 to 3 metres. Swell Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. “
Hmm…TG thinks most of that will stay offshore.
Depending on the battle between the wind and the swell, the surf on Sunday might start to come up into the 1-2 metre range at places open to due South, … some might even get into protected spots… but my guess is the wind is more likely to push it back.

For the week ahead…

Westerly type winds are expected all through the week….

Westerlies initially flatten the surf on the East Coast, until swell that has built up coming over many thousands of kilometres across the Great Australian Bight and the southern ocean refracts to the left around Victoria, and starts either coming up the NSW coast, or heads off in a south westerly direction into the Tasman.

It’s always hard to say but it looks like the alternating W/NW/SW winds across the country will push most of the bigger swell out into the Tasman, or it will go right on up the coast past Sydney … which is fine for the average punter, as there’ll be fun leftover surf from that.

So, while it will be big offshore, right in close to the coast the South swell should be more moderately sized.

It might start to come up possibly Sunday or more likely Monday, and that should last all week.

And with the expected offshore winds there should be some fun times ahead for surfers…depending on the banks… and we’re not talking about the Big 4.

Monday: say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but there’ll be a lot of SW in the swell; despite the reasonable wave period there’ll be a battle between the wave pulse and the wind, with the wind most likely keeping the swell down

Tuesday:  bigger, southerly swell with a period bigger than 10 seconds could see surf around maybe 2 or 2+ metres at places open to the South, and some getting into other beaches

Wednesday: easing back in the upper 1-2 metre range, still due South

Thursday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range, as the direction turns more South West

Friday: up again 2-3 metres at due South places.

A couple of wind chill days ahead, so stay warm.  Water’s pleasant enough at around 18-19.

TG

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 July 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Last few days have been really pretty to look at, though waves have been a bit deceptive – look like they’ll break but don’t …look like you need to take a couple of extra strokes, but you’re falling off the front…unless you’re young fit and agile and you handle anything, and you don’t have to worry about the wind blowing your wig off.  The banks are pretty straight at a lot of beaches and could do with some improvement.

Westerly type winds are expected all through next week. Westerlies initially flatten the surf on the East coast, until swell coming across the Great Australian Bight refracts left around Victoria, and comes either up the coast or heads off in a south westerly direction into the Tasman, depending on the wind pushing it along.

It looks to TG that the alternating W/NW/SW winds will push most of the bigger stuff out into the Tasman or it will go right on up the coast past Sydney, which is fine for the average punter.

So big offshore, but right in close to the coast some moderately sized South swell should start to come up from possibly Sunday or more likely Monday, that should last all week. And with the  expected offshore winds there should be some fun times ahead…depending on the banks.

Friday: less than 1 metre or flat

Saturday: less than 1 metre or flat

Sunday: could start to come up into the 1-2 metre range at places open to due South; some might get into protected spots but my guess is the wind is more likely to push it back

Monday: say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but there’ll be a lot of SW in the swell; despite the reasonable wave period there’ll be a battle between the wave pulse and the wind, most likely keeping it down

Tuesday:  bigger more southerly swell with a pulse could see it around maybe 2 or 2+ metres at places open to the South, with more getting into other places

Wednesday: easing back in the upper 1-2 metre range still due South

Thursday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range as the direction turns more South West

Friday: up again 2-3 metres at due South places.

A couple of wind chill days ahead too so stay warm.  Water’s pleasant enough.

Stay safe

TG

————-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Up in the Air

Blue skies and more blue skies

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 11 06:30:00 2019

Lots of lines close together from the West ————What can it mean…??

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 11 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

You’ve got

Wind

blowing offshore >>>> and lots of it

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp

The MHL Sydney buoy temperature reader is off the air at the moment, but the last recording was 19.5 on 8 July, and I’d say from the feel of it, it’s about that.

image

Tides

^v^v^v^v

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending north to northwesterly in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 12 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Becoming windy. Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 13 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 16
Windy. Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the outer west. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending westerly 25 to 40 km/h early in the morning then increasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 14 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 16
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 15 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 16 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h turning southwesterly during the morning.

Wednesday 17 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h later.

Thursday 18 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h.


Pretty morning but waves looking small to tiny

Posted on July 11th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Only about a metre of SSE swell at 7-10 sec showing on the buoy off Sydney. Light NNW breezes for the early and still dropping to the low tide around 0840. Knee to maybe waist at the magnets, but don’t expect much. I’d say a few rest days coming up and then maybe early next week you’ll be seeing fun winter surf for a couple of days at least. Long range shaping up nicely too…

Here in Cali, the southerly swell from way downunder was pretty good south of Ventura. Orange county was looking the best and Trestles was head plus and looking ultra tasty on the cams, but the closer you get to where I am, the more marginal it gets… argh, summer in SB county.

Weather Situation

Two fronts will move through southern and central waters over the next few days: one this morning and the other late Friday or early Saturday. These two systems will maintain vigorous northwest to southwesterly winds over most of the New South Wales coast from Thursday through to Saturday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending westerly 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Friday 12 July

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 13 July

Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning west to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Perfect fun size and glassy rights and lefts at Lower Trestles this morning.

Campus point too small even for the learners

Ventura getting windy in the afternoon, but showing waist plusses on sets at C-Street

Mondos just north of Ventura, looking ideal for beginners

Malibu looking really good and not too crowded at the top of the point (3hrs from me)


The early riser scored

Posted on July 10th, 2019 in At large.

Up early and decided to do some before work in the field research at Avalon on the low tide. Rewarded with a nice south end peak with only a few out.

Sat inside from the pack and scored some nice 2-3’ runners. Glorious morning (again)! Waves all day. More tide will help.


 

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