Archive for July 2019

Cold offshore little waves on Wednesday morning

Posted on July 31st, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Very cold this morning but the swell’s come up a little and despite the temps there were a few people at the point and one or two visible in the beachbreak at Dee Why. Size looked to be in the waist to waist-plus range. Skies were heavily overcast and there’s an 80% chance of showers. Wind was 7-10 kts from the WSW early, but the Bureau says to expect it to swing more to the south as the day goes along. At 0700 the MHL buoy was seeing 2.75 m of 8-second S-SSE swell out at sea. Periods are closer to 11 seconds down south, so maybe the waves will get a bit more powerful in Sydney later. Ocean temp is sitting on 19C – which is nice for winter surfing, but also disturbing.

Tide was high at 0725 and is back to low at 1305.

Tomorrow is looking interesting thanks to a predicted wind change to the SW and the prospect of the swell chugging along at around the current size, but, maybe with a longer period. It’ll still be showery but only lightly. From the shape of the models it would seem that we can expect waves at south magnets through to next week. It doesn’t look like being big, but waist to chest on sets doesn’t seem to be out of the question.

Have a great Wednesday and stay warm!

Hardy crew braving 10 degree air temps for a wave.

Up the beach some possibilities maybe

Weather Situation

A front over the northern Tasman Sea and a high pressure system over the Bight are directing moderate to fresh southerly winds along the New South Wales coast. The high will become the dominant influence over the coming days as it slowly moves east and extends a ridge along the coast, maintaining generally southeast to southwesterly winds over New South Wales waters for the remainder of the week.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Thursday 1 August

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning then tending southerly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Friday 2 August

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Rainy and tiny

Posted on July 30th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Rain’s lifted, so here’s a pic of the situation. Not exactly booming…

1100 saw a hardy trio waiting for knee to waist high bumps to come through on a chilly, showery Tuesday morning

Earlier: Waiting for a chance to get a picture once the rain backs off. But, from what I can see, swell is still lined up and tiny. The MHL buoy is showing swell 1.8 metres out of the S-SSE but the average period is only 7 seconds. There’s definitely some longer period, but much smaller stuff in the mix too and that’s probably where the long lines are coming from. At any rate, the takeaway is that there’s nothing surfable on offer.

We’re in for three days of cloudy, rainy and southerly winds. The swell’s expected to build into the 2.5 metre range, but it’s hard to see much hope of decent surfing conditions in this morning’s forecasts. If the period stretches out a bit and the swell gets a touch more east… then the protected corners could potentially come into play. Or, if we can get a bit of SW to the wind…

Have a top old Tuesday everyone!

Weather Situation

A front that skimmed across southern waters overnight will continue moving east across the Tasman Sea. Behind this, a high is forecast to strengthen over the Bight while extending a ridge across Bass Strait, delivering a stronger southerly airstream to the New South Wales coast today. The high is likely to be very slow-moving during the second half of the week, eventually reaching the Tasman Sea by the end of the weekend.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm this morning.

Wednesday 31 July

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Thursday 1 August

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers

Interesting at Northy

Posted on July 29th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

An intimate gathering of 35 or so talented riders were competing for clean chest to shoulder high waves at Northy late this afternoon under cloudy skies.


Sunny and tiny again

Posted on July 29th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

You know yesterday? Like that, ie sunny, chilly with a light NW breeze and long but very tiny lines that are really too tiny to make surf. As of 0700 the MHL buoy was showing 1.1 metres of 14-second SSE swell. From the look of the swell models and the Bureau’s predictions, there isn’t likely to be an imporvement today.
It should be cloudy later and by tomorrow the south wind and swell will be filling in. The weather should be partly cloudy and there’s a high chance of a shower.
The showery and southerly conditions are set to persist through Wednesday, but with luck there should better conditions on Thursday as the wind gets a little more SW.
FWIW some of the models are showing interesting prospects for the start of next week. That’s a long way out, but we always like to see at least the hope of something good coming our way…
Have a great Monday everyone!

Up the beach, a line, but it broke right on the shore

Folks waiting, but not much coming through at 0800

Weather Situation

A front will skim across southeast New South Wales during today, bringing west to southwesterly winds to most coastal areas, before continuing across the Tasman Sea. Behind this, a new high is forecast to strengthen in the Bight and extend a ridge across Bass Strait, delivering a stronger southerly airstream to the New South Wales coast from Tuesday. The high is likely to be very slow-moving during the second half of the week, eventually reaching the Tasman Sea on the weekend.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Westerly 10 to 15 knots turning south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. 70% chance of showers this evening.

Tuesday 30 July

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 95% chance of showers.

Wednesday 31 July

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Little but not flat at Dee Why

Posted on July 28th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another sunny cool and offshore morning with little waist high waves to be had. A reasonable crew was on it by 0745 too. There were little waves up the beach, but at least as far as No Mans is concerned, the waves were mostly shutting down.

Wind is expected to be light and variable across the day and swell is predicted to remain below the metre mark. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.1 metres of 15 secpmd from the south as of 0600. Tide will be low at 1030 and then back to a 1.65 m high at 1710. Weather should be sunny with a high of 20C. Water is a crazy 19C.

The small conditions look like improving on Tuesday as a cloudy and brisk southerly change blows in. Wednesday morning could see 2.5 metres of dead south with light SW wind and partly cloudy chilly weather conditions. Some of the models are projecting the good surf prospects to last through Friday…

Have a great Sunday everyone!

 

Shutty-downy looking up the beach at 0745

Busy at the point for Sunday morning with waves into the waist high range

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge lies over southeast Australia, while a feeble trough lies off the coast, and another to the west of New South Wales. A trough is expected to move along the New South Wales coast later Monday and Tuesday as a front passes to the south, behind which a strong high in the Bight pushes a new ridge to the east.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 60% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.

Monday 29 July

Winds
Westerly 10 to 15 knots turning south to southwesterly in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. 50% chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening.

Tuesday 30 July

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Saturday you could be better

Posted on July 27th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Going telegraphic on you this morning…

Wind was light westerly early,

Swell was 1.2 metres from the SSE at 12 sec as of 0500

Tide was low at 0935 and back to high at 1615.

Water temp is on 20C

BoM: swell comes up Tuesday morning into 2-3m range – but wind will be south

Model 1: puny until Weds when strong south takes over for W-Th with size but few options to surf on Wed, then wind might get some SSW to it Thr, so  waves could happen – shoulder head plus

Model 2 says flat until Weds but then swell too straight south to light up much, so maybe knee to waist – and mostly south wind.

Make of it what you will. I’m just staying hopeful!

Whiterock teaser

Long waits north of

Long lines shutting down DY beach

Cute peak goes unridden

Dee Why point longboardable on sets 0640

No Mans moment

A few little ones at Northy for the early

Thumping shorepound but not surfable set at south Narra

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge remains dominant over New South Wales, though a weakening front skims across the far south early this morning. The next cold front is expected to move through southern and central coastal areas during Monday, then extend along the northern coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this morning.

Sunday 28 July

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Monday 29 July

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming westerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Becoming cloudy

Just surfable for Friday

Posted on July 26th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Yesterday’s little swell has largely faded this morning, but if you are really keen and very patient, waves in the knee to waist high range can be found at south exposures. The MHL buoy was showing a metre of 9 second SE bump off Sydney at 0700. First tide of the daylight hours was a low at 0845. It’ll be back to high at 1520. Wind should come from the westerly quarters all day and there is no real prospect of an improvement to the surf – sadly. Last night, the astonishingly reliable Goat posted his thoughts on the surf outlook for the coming week and as always, I commed his words of wisdom to you.

Have a great Friday everyone and go well with your plans!

Quiet start to the day at Dee Why beach

A few bods in the water at Long Reef

Bomb set shuts down at Dee Why around 0800

Sets just rideable at Curly 0800

Goin’ fishin’ at Curly

A few having a go at Curly this morning

.

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge is strengthening over New South Wales. This high will be the dominant feature in the region over the coming days, apart from a weak cold front that is forecast to skim across the south late today and early Saturday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning west to southwesterly in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 27 July

Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning south to southeasterly below 10 knots in the afternoon then tending southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Sunday 28 July

Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending southerly during the day then becoming variable below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 25th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 25 July 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

After today’s brief uptick, it’ll be back to smallness again for several days.

When the swell starts to pick up a little later in the week from the South that will be accompanied by showers, cold temps, and SW/S wind – so I’d guess it’ll probably be a “who cares what size it is?” situation – before things might start to ease back a bit on Friday … A bit early to tell but we’ll see.

Friday: back to 1 metre or less South East, but rideable

Saturday: similar

Sunday: maybe around 1 metre at places open to due South

Monday: 1 metre or less South East

Tuesday: ditto at dead South places, the rest nothing, or just nothing.

Wednesday: let’s say somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, could be more but I don’t think you’ll care

Thursday: dittoish – but easing back during the day

Friday: hmm let’s say somewhere ’round the middle of the 1-2 metre range South East. Let’s see how things are travelling next week

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 25 07:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 25 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18-19

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

I love the cover of the 2019-20 Tide Chart… ” I kept the channel marker to port, and here I am.  I can’t understand what’s gone wrong”…

Weather from the Bureau

Friday 26 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Patches of morning fog in the outer west. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Partly cloudy. Sydney 8 20
Partly cloudy. Penrith 3 20
Partly cloudy. Liverpool 3 20
Partly cloudy. Terrey Hills 7 18
Morning fog. Partly cloudy. Richmond 1 20
Partly cloudy. Parramatta 4 19
Partly cloudy. Campbelltown 1 19
Partly cloudy. Bondi 10 19

Saturday 27 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the west in the early morning. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 28 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 29 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Becoming cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Becoming cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Tuesday 30 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 17
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 31 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 17
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 1 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning


Nice lines early

Posted on July 25th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Chilly, sunny and offshore with sets into the waist plus range at Dee Why when I checked this morning at 0730. There was only one person in the water at the point braving the cold but clean conditions and I couldn’t see anyone north from there toward No Mans. The lines were quite long and despite a low tide around 0755, they seemed to be breaking very close to shore. The MHL buoy was showing 1.6 metres of 8 second energy from the SSE for Sydney. From the look of the data, the Bureau is right to predict a gradual decline back to about a metre by the end of the day. It’ll be interesting to see the Goat’s take on our prospects when his latest surf prediction rolls out later today. I’m wondering what his take will be on the surf outlook for mid next week… wavewatch looks crazy but ECM is meh.

Have a top old day everyone!

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge is strengthening over New South Wales. This high will be the dominant feature in the region over the coming days, apart from a weak cold front that is forecast to skim across the south late Friday and early Saturday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
West to northwesterly about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly in the early afternoon then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 26 July

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 27 July

Winds
Westerly 10 to 15 knots turning south to southwesterly during the morning then decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

One person out and shoulder high on sets at 0730

Inside wave shaping nicely

Lines but looking smallish


Back in Sydney and this is the welcome

Posted on July 24th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Just off the big bird from LA (15 fun-filled hours) and what do I find? It’s just as flat as it was in California.
Still, the weather is gorgeous and it is great to be home again.

This morning’s forecast says we can expect the swell to pick up from the south this afternoon, but looking at it just now (1300), I’ve gotta say I’m not overly hopeful of a surfable bump later. That said, there was 2 metres of dead south 8-9 second swell at Batemans Bay as of 1100 this morning, so… maybe toward dusk we might see something. The models are saying the peak may arrive after dark and that by tomorrow morning it could be nearly back to the current dire conditions.

Jet lag permitting, I’ll be up at the usual time to see what I can see…

 

Ultra micro looking at 1300

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge is strengthening over New South Wales, as a cold front which crossed the state’s south overnight shifts to the Tasman Sea. This high will be the dominant feature in the region during the next few days, although a weak cold front is forecast to skim across the south later Friday or Saturday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore in the morning, turning southwesterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Thursday 25 July

Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly around 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 26 July

Winds
North to northeasterly below 10 knots tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending northwest to southwesterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.