The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on August 22nd, 2019

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Big waves today…

The offshore MHL buoy late today was showing 6 metres to off-the-scale-for-max-height (9+m), at 8-12 seconds. The S wind was blowing 50-60kph and the wind chill brought the temp down to 4 degrees.

The swell is from dead South (186 degrees – what’s dead South kids??), which means it’s “only” the side ripples that are coming onto Sydney beaches in sets.. But they are still large enough. I’d say 3-3+ metres on the sets…closing out across the bay in some big wave locations. At other places it might have looked ok for a challenge after school at first sight…

But kids.. Trust Uncle TG… Surf like this, in these conditions, is not to be messed around with.

If you’re caught out there on your own and an accident happens (and they do).. you are literally on your own.  Unlike the Big Wave contests you see on whatever you watch, there is no rescue service just hanging around waiting to go and get you if you get into trouble.

Think about it….

Anyhoo… Tomorrow should be bigger than today, then easing back gradually as the Low moves further away to NZ, with a few ups and downs till later in the week when it looks like coming up again…

Friday: let’s call it 4 metres, easing back to 3-4 metres at places that can get swell from dead South

Saturday: say around 2 metres on the sets at dead South spots

Sunday: around 1-1+ metres dead South at first then coming up briefly

Monday: then back down again in the 1-2 metre range South

Tuesday: around 1 metre or so South

Wednesday: let’s say Ditto

Thursday: looks like coming up again, around 2-3 metres at dead South places.

Stay safe.

TG

I’ll be going away for a little while but will try to post from time to time. Miss you already… 🙂

Up in the Air

The Low is moving away pretty quickly~~~~~~~~~~~~

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 22 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

How artistic is that brush stroke eh>>>

… “Mother Nature is a natural artist!” (c with circle, TG 2019…haha)

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 22 06:30:00 2019

Winds

Yes…but easing off and changing direction, again and again

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is starting to get chilly at around 17

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Windy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds southerly 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Friday 23 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Mostly sunny. Sydney 7 19
Sunny. Penrith 2 21
Sunny. Liverpool 2 20
Sunny. Terrey Hills 6 17
Sunny. Richmond 0 21
Sunny. Parramatta 3 19
Sunny. Campbelltown 0 20
Mostly sunny. Bondi 9 17

Saturday 24 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 25
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Light winds becoming northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 25 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Monday 26 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 27 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 28 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 29 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the day.

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