Archive for March 2020

Sunny skies, tiny swell

Posted on March 31st, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A beautiful sunny morning along the beaches with a light WNW breeze as of 0900. As the pictures show the waves are really tiny. Out at sea the bump is about a metre at a choppy 5 seconds apart from the SSW.
Fortunately we’re still allowed to exercise (with a maximum of one other person and maintaining 1.5m minimum distance).
Outlook is for the tiny conditions to persist for the coming week, with maybe a little uptick at the weekend according to the latest Wavewatch forecast.
Stay safe everyone and follow the rules.
FYI
Northern Beaches Summary of cancelled / postponed events page
NSW State Govt COVID-19 updates

Nothing doing at the point

Kiddies tiny

No Mans micro at 0900

Looking north, clear skies at 0900

Weather Situation
A trough, associated with a cold front slipping to the south, has brought a southerly change to the southern half overnight and will continue to move north over the northern waters this morning. After this, the trough is expected to weaken with winds turning east to northeasterly later on Tuesday as a high pressure ridge follows in the wake of the change. Mid-week northerly winds are expected to increase ahead of a trough that looks to bring a brief southerly change to southern waters late Thursday or early Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 1 April
Winds
Easterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the late evening.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 2 April
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning northerly during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
East to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Grey and drizzly Monday morning

Posted on March 30th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Waited for the drizzle to back off before getting this morning’s pictures. Out at sea the east wind bump is 1.2 metres at 8 seconds. Tide was high a touch after 0700. Dee Why is in the knee to waist plus range.

As of this morning, I’m out of self-isolation so, according to the current advice  from the NSW government, I can exercise in public space again (see below). Given the paltry conditions, I’m not planning to go for a surf, but maybe a bike ride around the lagoon later… of course there will be no stopping for a chat with folks and I’ll be maintaining distance at all times, remembering that whenever I’m out, the virus can find me. It persists on surfaces and you just need the one viral particle to come in contact with your eyes, nose or mouth and you’ll be shedding millions within a couple days and symptomatic anywhere from 1-10 days later. You will expose everyone around you to danger.

So apart from getting essential supplies, going to the doc, or work, or getting exercise, stay home.

Point dialled down

Knee high maybe

Overcast with patches of drizzle and light north wind at 0900

Monday morning traffic on Pittwater Rd, Seaforth!!

***

NSW Government Outdoor exercise statement (link (opens in new window)

Yes, you can exercise outdoors but you must practise social distancing and personal hygiene.

Personal training, boot camps and fitness classes may be held outdoors in groups of no more than 10 people (including the person running the class) but you must practise social distancing and personal hygiene.

Social sporting-based activities may be held outdoors in groups of no more than 10 people but you must practise social distancing and personal hygiene.

Sporting activities may create the opportunity for physical contact between people and therefore can increase the risk of transmission of disease. The Australian Government’s Community Sport Guidelines provide advice in relation to organising or attending these activities.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand stretches a ridge to the north coast. Winds are expected to tend more northerly as the high moves further east and a cold front moves through Bass Strait. This front is expected to bring a southerly change to southern New South Wales waters on Monday and the remainder on Tuesday. Another high will move to the southern Tasman on Tuesday in the wake of the front.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the early afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Tuesday 31 March
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 1 April
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.


Keep your distance

Posted on March 29th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

This morning there were 1617 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in NSW and the State government is flagging stage 3 restrictions. Remember to that there is an unknown number of asymptomatic cases which are capable of shedding virus without realising it. If you’re at home, it’s much less likely that the virus can ‘find’ you. If you’re outside, give yourself the best chance of not picking it up by staying away from places with others and keep your distance. Wash your hands when you come home.

There are waves this morning and people are getting amongst them at Dee Why. The carpark looks full too, so lots of folks are taking a chance that the virus won’t find them. I’m on my last day of self-isolation but I wouldn’t be down there with that many people around.

In response to new measures introduced by the State Government that limit the number of people on any beach to 500, some beaches and harbour pools are closed until further notice. This is to encourage appropriate social distancing (1.5m between people) and to reduce the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Please contact councils for local beach conditions.

Dee Why 0830 Sunday


Is this trip really necessary

Posted on March 28th, 2020 in Dee Why.

In response to new measures introduced by the State Government that limit the number of people on any beach to 500, some beaches and harbour pools are closed until further notice. This is to encourage appropriate social distancing (1.5m between people) and to reduce the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Please contact councils for local beach conditions.

0700



Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania is slowly moving east across the southern Tasman Sea, while a low pressure trough lingers off the northern coast of New South Wales. Winds are expected to tend more northeasterly over the weekend as the high moves further east and a cold front approaches from the west. This front is expected to bring a southerly change to New South Wales waters during the first half of next week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 29 March
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Monday 30 March
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Windy, messy, lumpy, grey

Posted on March 27th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

First order of the day, wash hands, check temp for day 12 of self-isolation. All good. Fire up the coffee, flick on the news, grab the camera and climb aloft for a couple of snaps. High overcast, wind ESE 10-15 kt and the ocean looks like it too – dull, choppy and bumpy but there are junky, sectiony chest plus sets at the point and along the beach. Out at sea it’s 2.3 metres at 9 seconds from 131°. Tide is coming into the high at 1100. Water is rated as clean and 22C by Beachwatch.

Earlier I posted some text from the ABC website, but it is highly likely that the advice in question will soon change given the following remarks from the Premier of NSW.

Ms Berejiklian says people should not go outside unless they “absolutely have to”.

She said containing COVID-19 at this stage meant “we are better off in the next few weeks and months”.

“It is up to all of us to come together to do our part and deal with the disease at this critical stage,” she said.

re: exercise, ABC News’ website published the following on Tuesday

Exercise outdoors, while you still can
If you’re not self-isolating or unwell, the experts agree you and your family can still go outside to exercise at this stage.

But you must practise social distancing, keep up good hygiene practices, and wash your hands when you get home.

This advice may change in the event of widespread community transmission of this coronavirus, said Adam Kamradt-Scott, an expert in the spread and control of infectious diseases at the University of Sydney.

So walking, cycling and running are still on the menu, as are outdoor sports like golf and tennis although you’ll likely find your local golf course or tennis club will have implemented extra hygiene measures to abide by.

Messy looking at 0830

Sets very sectiony

Shorey stands one up

In response to new measures introduced by the State Government that limit the number of people on any beach to 500, some beaches and harbour pools are closed until further notice. This is to encourage appropriate social distancing (1.5m between people) and to reduce the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Please contact councils for local beach conditions.

So, your correspondent will remain on the exercise sidelines until Monday morning. Of course by then the instructions could change.

Keep safe and remember if you stay home, you’re staying away from the virus. The more you move about, the better the chance you have of finding it.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near Tasmania is lowly moving east across the southern Tasman Sea, while a low pressure trough lingers off the northern coast of New South Wales. This pattern is directing south to southeasterly winds along the coastal waters, which are expected to tend more northeasterly across the weekend as the high moves further east and a cold front approaches from the west. This front is expected to bring a southerly change to New South Wales waters during the first half of next week.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 28 March
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Sunday 29 March
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning northerly during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on March 26th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 March 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

I said to a mate this morning that I’d been mulling over what I should say in the forecast in a socially responsible way, given present circumstances.

He said:

Just say… The surf is crap. And you can’t go out anyway!

So there’s the Surf Forecast. Thanks Roy.

While that might not be strictly correct (the surf is _total_ crap), now is not the time to be splitting hairs.

Some of the major beaches are closed because of the people who couldn’t stick to social distancing rules. But in addition, among the Government’s current advice to stop the spread of the virus in the community, is “We are suspending non-essential gatherings to reduce the risk of spreading coronavirus (COVID-19). This will give both businesses and people time to fully understand social distancing requirements.” And “non essential travel is to be avoided”.  It doesn’t specifically say don’t go to the beach, but that doesn’t mean: let’s all go to beaches that are currently open and congregate in close groups like Total Drongos.

Keep up to date: aus.gov.au

Common sense in following the rules is the order of the day for outdoor (and indoor) activities.

To assist with this, for the time being  TG intends not to provide comment on what the surf outlook looks like and just give the facts, for people to use their own common sense.  Younger people and Complete Dills might need some community guidance for the good of public health from time to time.

We all need something to look forward to. If we all do the right thing, we should stay healthy so we can enjoy crowded surfs (!!??) in the future.  Did that come out right??

TG may offer some helpful suggestions from time to time… like…

Maybe remember some great surf trips you’ve had in the past to talk over with mates on the phone?.. or

Under the current rules, hairdressers are open. Yesterday he was weighing up the risks of getting a haircut…

Will the barber follow the 4 square metre rule etc?

versus

Will a later gathering of 10 people say: “A pity about TG. But boy he’s got a great haircut!”

As TG was starting to look like Rip Van Winkel, he decided it wouldn’t hurt to have a look….

First barber “Closed due to coronavirus”.

Second barber “Open”.. plenty of space inside, lots of ventilation with front and back doors open, and the only person inside was the barber.  So far so good, fingers crossed. 🙂 If it doesn’t work out I’ll blame the Government.

To help out those businesses that can’t work from home and help keep the economy ticking over, if there is something you need, it might be worth just having a look, following the rules and using common sense.

Stay safe. Stay well.

TG

Up in the Air

Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis and Infrared Greyscale Satellite

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.066,150.816,5

Down in the Sea

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 23
Shower or two. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most frequent in the north, easing during this afternoon and evening. Winds south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly in the middle of the day and reaching 40 km/h at times near the coast.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Shower or two. Windy. Sydney 23
Shower or two. Penrith 23
Shower or two. Liverpool 23
Shower or two. Windy. Terrey Hills 21
Shower or two. Richmond 23
Shower or two. Parramatta 23
Shower or two. Campbelltown 23
Shower or two. Windy. Bondi 21

Friday 27 March

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Saturday 28 March

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 29 March

Summary
Min 18
Max 26
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 30 March

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Possible shower or storm.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Tuesday 31 March

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 1 April

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Southerly and grey

Posted on March 26th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Southerly was hammering along at 17-25 kts under lowering grey skies when your self-isolating correspondent climbed aloft with the camera at RealSurf HQ. There were a couple of people in the water, but they must have been pretty desperate for some water time because the quality, as you can see from the pic, is not great. The longer period stuff of yesterday has, as expected, faded away to leave behind only wind swell. Out at sea it was 2.7 metres at 8 seconds from 180° but inshore it was maybe waist high.
While we aren’t currently forbidden to go to the beach if not self-isolating, I think we should be very self-conscious about any excursions outside the home. Just like in wartime, you have to ask yourself ‘is this trip essential?’
Stay safe!
BTW, here’s a useful visualisation of the latest COVID-19 data from Australia.

Grey and southerly


 
Weather Situation
A high pressure system near Tasmania is slowly moving east while a trough of low pressure is lingering off the northern coast, directing south to southeasterly airstream. Winds will become east to northeasterly later in the week and during the weekend as the high pressure system tracks into the Tasman Sea, extending a ridge over the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, tending southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Friday 27 March
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre, tending east to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
Saturday 28 March
Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Have a laugh, it’ll do you good!

Posted on March 25th, 2020 in Big Picture.


Sunday crowd for the waves

Posted on March 25th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

2.7 metres at 15 seconds apart from the SE was delivering shoulder plus wave faces for the Sunday crowds along the south end of Dee Why beach. Wind was coming lightly from the north
There looked to be around 30 people in the water at the south end by 0800 but up the beach there were not too many. Council left the beaches open yesterday and as of this writing they’re still all open. Swell is predicted to weaken later in the day (when the wind will be into it). Probably a good idea to check Northern Beaches Council advice on closures here before you take off for a surf.
Wind is set to swing south as the day goes along and despite the nice weather early, there’s an 80% chance of a shower later. Ocean is 22C and water’s clean everywhere according to Beachwatch.

From the look of the models we’re in for a stretch of small, short period waves over the coming week.

(Just a reminder that your self-isolated webmaster plans to test changes to the page design so the look of the site may temporarily switch to the new design as I make adjustments.)

Stay safe, keep your distance, wash your hands regularly (especially when you come into your home from outside), sneeze into your elbow, stop touching your face, clean frequently touched surfaces.

Latest info from the NSW Government here.

Waves in the corner 0800

Lines near No Mans

Lots of folks going for a surf this morning

In response to new measures introduced by the State Government that limit the number of people on any beach to 500, some beaches and harbour pools are closed until further notice. This is to encourage appropriate social distancing (1.5m between people) and to reduce the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Please contact councils for local beach conditions.

Weather Situation

A ridge of high pressure is extending along northern parts of the coast. A trough over inland New South Wales is forecast to shift east over the coming days, bringing a southerly change to southern and central waters on today, and continuing through to the north on Thursday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 25 knots inshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Thursday 26 March

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots tending southeasterly in the middle of the day then increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Friday 27 March

Winds
Southeasterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers

Smooth little bumps for the unconfined

Posted on March 24th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Day 9 of recent arrival self-isolation for your correspondent. Thanks to the high tide at 0920, conditions were lumpy and fat. But there were waves in the waist high range. Wind was light NW early, so surface conditions were glassy. Out at sea the swell was 1.9 metres at 15 seconds from 155° (SSE).
It’s misting right now at RealSurf HQ, so I’ll have to post a pic from the crows nest when it lifts.
A head’s up re the site. I’m playing around with a new, faster-loading look, so I’ll be testing on the live site from time to time.
Stay safe, wash those hands, cough into those elbows, stop touching your faces, maintain distance and prepare to be on lockdown because it’s more likely than not headed our way.
Weather Situation
A ridge of high pressure is extending along the coast in the wake of a cold front. Mid-week a trough over inland New South Wales is forecast to shift east, bringing a southerly change to southern and central waters on Wednesday, and continuing through to the north on Thursday.

Lion Island on a cloudy morning

Waves at the point and along the beach at 0900

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly early in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Wednesday 25 March
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly in the morning, then shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Thursday 26 March
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning then turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.