Archive for November 2020

Grey skies and SSW wind early with small south bump

Posted on November 27th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Dull start to Friday, but thanks to an early SSW wind, it was relatively smooth at places showing the small E-SE swell. Said swell was 2 metres at 8 seconds from the east at 0740 and wind was 6-8 kts from the south. Tide hit a 1.5 m high at 0715 so Dee Why was looking slow, fat and around the thigh to waist plus mark for the weak swell.
Cloud should break up as the day goes along and we get to a high of 26C. The southerly should weaken toward midday and then the wind will swing NE and get into a summery 15-20 kt range.
It’ll be interesting to see what the Goat has to say about the coming week, but my take is we’re in for ankle to knee with the odd plusses, give or take, right across the coming week.
Happy Thanksgiving to my US fam and pals, and have a great Friday everyone!

Not enough energy for the point

Knee to waist high along the beach


Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea looks set to remain slow moving for the next few days. Northerly winds will increase today ahead of a trough, which will bring a strong and gusty southerly change during Sunday afternoon. These winds will then ease and tend more variable on Monday as a new high moves in from the west.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots later in the morning. Winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
East to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 28 November
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 25 knots offshore. Winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southerly below 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 29 November
Winds
North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots, shifting southerly 25 to 35 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
 

 
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea looks set to remain slow moving for the next few days. Northerly winds will increase today ahead of a trough, which will bring a strong and gusty southerly change during Sunday afternoon. These winds will then ease and tend more variable on Monday as a new high moves in from the west.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots later in the morning. Winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
East to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 28 November
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 25 knots offshore. Winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southerly below 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 29 November
Winds
North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots, shifting southerly 25 to 35 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Weak and dumpy knee to waist

Posted on November 26th, 2020 in Surf Reports.
South Curly
Curly bomb
Curly
Booming Dee Why

Did the Manly run and while it’s a stunning morning, the waves are anything but. The lines look nice coming into spots like south Curly and Kiddies, but they’re rarely above waist high and you’re doing well to get more than one soft and gutless turn before they mush out altogether. Throw in a light NE onshore and, well let’s say you have to be extremely keen.


Weak knee to waist at south spots

Posted on November 25th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

High overcast and a light SE breeze for Sydney’s beaches as Wednesday kicked off. The wind’s going to pick up by lunch time and be coming from the eastern quarters at around 10-15 kts. The bureau says that after an overcast start to the day, it should clear up this afternoon as we head to the high of 25C. Wind swell is 1.7 metres from the south at 6-7 seconds apart, water is on 20C and it should be clean along all the beaches. Tide was high just before 0600 and is dropping a bit to the low at noon.Not an outstanding surf day, but if you’re hanging out to get wet, there could be the odd knee to waist high set to be found. Take your weak wave board though.

Swell looks to be getting more east tomorrow and maybe with longer periods too, so the morning session’s looking to be potentially a bit more interesting than today’s paltry offerings. Might hold into Friday morning too.

Update:

Went for a surf at Dee Why. Pretty soft and gutless but typical for windswell if you timed it right there were some briefly shoulder high faces.

Weather Situation
Southerly winds will gradually turn northerly along the southern coast today as a high pressure system builds over the Tasman Sea. This high then looks set to remain over the Tasman Sea for the remainder of the week, although a trough is forecast to bring a brief southerly change to the southern half of the coast later on Thursday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending southeast to northeast 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then tending northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 26 November
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A late south to southeasterly change 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Friday 27 November
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Southerly and still micro

Posted on November 24th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The southerly rattled into town overnight and this morning sees 10-20 kts of straight south wind under more cloudy than not skies. Swell at sea is up to 2.5 metres, but it’s only 6-7 seconds apart and it’s dead south. Weather should stay partly cloudy and get to a mild 23C along the coast. There’s a 20% chance of a shower this morning too. Beachwatch reports that pollution is unlikely from Palm Beach to Cronulla and water is 20C. First tide of the daylight hours is the 0.74 m low at 1055.
Surf outlook is for a little uptick from tomorrow through Friday, and then as it heats up this weekend, the models say the waves will fade away to micro again. So, taking the most optimistic predictions… there could be waist to maybe even the odd chest high wave face at magnets. It looks as though the swell direction should gradually migrate from the current dead south to close to east by Friday.
Go well with your Tuesday everybody!

Nothing showing at the point as of 0730

No mans

Weather Situation
Southerly flow following the tail end of a cold front over northern coastal waters will continue to the Queensland border this morning. Following this, a high pressure system will drift across southeast Australia, reaching the Tasman Sea on Wednesday, bringing a return to northerly winds in most coastal areas. A weak southerly change looks set to briefly affect the southern half of the coast later Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 25 November
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 26 November
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Sunny.


Microscopic

Posted on November 23rd, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,
Monday started out overcast with a light NW breeze. We’re going to a high of 29C and there will likely be a shower or two this afternoon. As of 0800 the wind swell out at sea was a paltry 0.8 of a metre at 7 seconds from the SE. Beachwatch says water temp is on 20C and the first tide of the daylight hours is a 0.76m low at 0945.

As you can see from the snaps, Manly was bumping along at the bottom of the surfable range. It was the same at Curly and Dee Why. If you’re super keen, yeah maybe, but I for one can wait for the next pulse – which could be as soon as tomorrow…

Go well!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the Tasman sea. A front will move northwards up the coast during Monday, causing winds to freshen and shift southerly. Southerly winds will persist Tuesday before tending southeast to northeasterly Wednesday as another high builds over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening.
Tuesday 24 November
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning then tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 25 November
Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots tending northeast to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Sunny but waveless Sunday morning

Posted on November 22nd, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A light faintly cool offshore under sunny skies as Sunday got started along the beaches. Alas, there was only the barest trickle of a line coming into the Dee Why. Out at sea the buoys were seeing less than a metre of 6-second SSE wind bump. You could go for a swim or a paddle, but finding anything above the knee high mark is going to be a big ask.

From the look of the swell models, tomorrow’s going to be more of the same. Tuesday could see some scrappy south wind swell peaking into the chest plus range. It might clean up overnight into Wednesday morning, but it also looks as though the swell will also fade back into the knee to waist high range. Still, that’d be better than the current flatness.

Have yourself a top old Sunday everyone!

Sunny and slightly hazy start to the day. Oh, and no waves

Waveless No Mans

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the northern reaches of the Tasman sea will extend northerly winds across New South Wale’s coastal waters today. A front will move northwards up the coast during Monday, causing winds to freshen and shift southerly.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then tending northerly in the late evening. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

Monday 23 November

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday 24 November

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Too tiny for surfin’

Posted on November 21st, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The pictures tell the story this morning: there’s just about no surf. Even the spots that doing something with the weak south wind bump are only in the ankle to knee high range – on sets.
Cloudy skies early and a steady 10-12 kts of south wind are making for a less than appetizing beach morning. Wind swell out at sea is 1.5 metres from the south at just 4-5 seconds apart. Ocean temp is on 20C as we head to a high of 24C along the coast with south wind.
Outlook is basically for a surfless weekend with a modest hope of something into the surfable range (think knee to waist) from around Tuesday…
So have yourself a top old day, and sorry about the surf!

Shimmering sea

Dee Why looking really tiny and weak

Soft peak

Weak dribble at Long Reef

Tiny at Surfrider Gardens

Very tiny at Northy


Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure has stalled about the Mid North Coast and will weaken in place today, with southerly winds easing to the south. Northerly winds will then increase as the high pressure system again becomes the dominant feature over the Tasman Sea. Then the winds will turn southerly again early next week as the next front moves across the state.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 22 November
Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots, tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the late morning. During the afternoon winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.
Monday 23 November
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Nothing doing on the surf front at Dee Why this morning

Posted on November 20th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Another day for your no-surf exercise alternatives at Dee Why. We’re heading to a high of 29C with a sunny morning and the chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. The wind should come up into the 15-20 kt range from the N to NE later. Out at sea the buoys are detecting 1.3 metres of 7 second NE wind bump. Ocean temp is on 20C and water is clean up and down Sydney’s coastline.
While there’s nothing going on at Dee Why, better NE exposures should see lumpy, weak stuff in the knee to waist high range.
If you’re wondering about the weekend prospects, well, as always the unsinkable Goat has rolled out his usual Thursday evening predictions for the coming surf week.
Go well one and all and keep the mask handy for indoor public spaces. As the latest South Australian cluster shows, the virus can spread quickly before it’s detected.

Micro at the point as of 0700

Too tiny to ride at Kiddies

No takers at No Mans


Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is generating northerly winds along the New South Wales coast. A trough will bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast during the afternoon and evening today, and then continue north to the Mid North Coast on Saturday, where it will stall and weaken. Northerly winds will then increase as the high pressure system again becomes the dominant feature over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the day. Winds shifting southerly in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Saturday 21 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 22 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the day.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 19th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 November 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Another quick one from TBG (The Bionic Goat), cause he’s tired, worn out, needs a rest, and he says there’s not much to get too excited about anyway…

But who doesn’t like variety in their weather conditions, wind directions, wave directions, and general lives, hey??

Surf outlook is for mostly small to medium conditions for the weekend and week ahead.

But for those who want to get wet there should be waves from time to time, if you’ve got the right gear, and the right attitude. You might just have to look for them.

Friday: around 1-1+ metres of Noreast windswell

Saturday: leftovers from the above and chopped and whipped into submission by S/SE winds

Sunday: 1 metre or less at places open to dead South… lesser elsewhere

Monday: Ditto but North Eastish

Tuesday: up a little into the low end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: down a little and more East

Thursday: Dittoish

Keep your eyes peeled for Opportunities.

TBG says he’ll be good as new very soon, once the battery recharges.

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 19 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 19 07:30:00 2020

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp has at last started to get get human-friendly. Currently around 20ish off Sydney

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds northeasterly 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 20 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. The chance of fog in the west in the early morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeasterly 20 to 35 km/h in the afternoon then shifting southeasterly 20 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Mostly sunny. Sydney 17 29
Hot. Possible afternoon storm. Penrith 16 38
Possible afternoon shower. Liverpool 16 36
Mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 16 29
Hot. Possible afternoon storm. Richmond 16 37
Possible afternoon shower. Parramatta 15 35
Possible afternoon storm. Campbelltown 14 36
Mostly sunny. Bondi 18 25

Saturday 21 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h tending southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 22 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 29
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 23 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending southeast to southwesterly during the evening.

Tuesday 24 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, most likely during the morning. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 25 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 26 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 26
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.


Really tiny

Posted on November 19th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Wind was faintly out of the WNW as Thursday got started. We’re heading to a mostly sunny day with a high of 26C. Swell at sea was 0.9 metres at 9-10 seconds from the NE. First tide of the day is the 1.85 m high at 1210.

Did the Manly run this morning, so, as you can see from the pics, it’s pretty much ankle to knee high at Queenscliff, Curly and Dee Why. Nice morning for an exercise paddle though. Water is on 20C too.

The NE’r should come up soon and it’s predicted to get into the 20-25 kt range by dusk. With luck that’ll mean waves for tomorrow’s early will be a wee bit bigger…

Go well everyone!

Emerald waters and micro waves at Queenscliff

Knee high dribble at Curly

Unrideable at the point

No mans ankle to knee

Weather Situation
Northerly winds will extend along the New South Wales coast as a high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. A trough is then forecast to bring a southerly change to southern waters on Friday, continuing through to the Mid North Coast on Saturday where it will stall and weaken.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 20 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday 21 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.