Hello Friends,

The Goat called it. This morning looks like being about as clean and good as it gets for the next few days. It’s another win for you early risers because with a high tide arriving late this morning, the little 1.5 metre, 10 second south swell may be swamped out of existence most places before long.

On the good side, the Bureau says winds should be light through to early afternoon, and the buoy data from down the coast suggests that this morning’s energy levels could last through to this afternoon. Although it didn’t exactly look threatening as Saturday got started, the forecast is calling for an 80% chance of scattered showers, with the possibility of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

This morning’s forecast foretells southerly conditions right through to the middle of next week. As the wind picks up overnight into Sunday, the swell should come up. Some of the modelling is showing 8-9 second south swell into the 3+ metre range, so there is a possibility that you could find something surfable in very protected south corners. But the open stretches will be a windblown mess through to Wednesday.

So get out there if you can and enjoy!

TIDES: H @1045, L @1730

Sunday 2 October

Winds

South to southeasterly 20 to 30 knots.

Seas

1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres around dawn.

Swell

Southeasterly about 1 metre.

Weather

The chance of thunderstorms until afternoon, mainly offshore.

Went for a paddle at Dee Why point just before lunch. It was marginal to say the least but it’s so nice to be in the water at the moment. After getting out, I trundled over the hill to have a look at the mighty Curly. Shoulda gone out there I guess. Oh well. It wasn’t dramatically bigger, but the sets were producing the odd chest high face so it was better than most of what came through at the point. Plus, whilst busy enough, it was far from weekend crowd intensity given the smooth surface conditions and approachable little peaks around the place. I hope I’m not being a starry-eyed optimist, but I could swear there were a few more take-off zones than we’ve seen there of late…

Hello Friends,

Kept an eye on the wind all day, hoping there might be a glass off for the late. It didn’t really smooth off enough for my taste, but the wind was lighter and there were plenty of folks in the water along the Dee Why to Longy stretch. Bigger set wave faces were into the head high range by my reckoning, however in addition to being fairly lumpy and junky, the 8 sec average period means that even those ones don’t have a heap of power.

Tomorrow through to Saturday, just quietly, is looking rather promising… might get to bed a bit earlier than usual just on the off chance! Hope to have some fresh galleries out of this pulse…

go well!

Forecast for Thursday from the Bureau of Meterology

Winds: Westerly 20 to 25 knots tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots around midday then tending westerly 25 to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres from the late morning. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore in the evening.
Forecast for Friday

Winds: Westerly 20 to 30 knots tending west to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots around dawn then becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 knots around midday. Winds tending west to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots by early evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing below 1.5 metres around midday. Swell: Southerly 3 metres increasing to 4 metres from the late morning. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Forecast for Saturday

Winds: West to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending south to southwesterly up to 10 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 3 to 4 metres decreasing to 2 to 3 metres from midday. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore in the early morning.

A few snaps to share from this morning. At around 0845 I checked out Northy to see if there might be a wave from the SE swell. Hardly anyone was there, and for good reason. The waits were extremely long, the sets only had one wave and they were pretty weak looking. I got a shot of a bomb set and decided to look elsewhere.

Elsewhere ended up being down the beach at Longy toward No Mans. A couple of peaks were going on and it looked pretty similar to Northy, but maybe just a touch bigger and more consistent. That was enough for your correspondent. I paddled out and waited around to jag the odd interesting one. Biggest thing I caught was around the chest high mark, but it was fun, so no complaints here. Be nice if Huey turned the warm tap on a little though…

Since coming in, the skies have clouded up and it just seems colder and duller out there. Swell is still plugging along at around the metre mark with the odd 10 sec set still showing up to make it interesting at south exposed spots.

Go well with your arvo!

Northy….

Longy…

Hello Friends,

At about midnight the swell tracked around to the south off Sydney. At the same time it ramped quickly from less than a metre to almost 2.5 metres. All good, but for one essential detail: the average period is a mere 7 seconds (with a few into the 8 sec range). Wind was a brisk SSW asTuesday got rolling. The Bureau’s call is for it to tend southerly this evening and be 20-30 kts out at sea early before weakening slightly.

At 0730 there were only three or four people in the water at Dee Why. Sets looked to be in the waist high range, so I’d assume there would be the occasional bomb into the chest high zone. But the wind was cold up in the RealSurf crows nest, so I didn’t spend a real long time watching.

The swell energy looks likely to peak around midday before weakening back toward microness over the next 24 hours. Latest run of the models points toward smallness tomorrow before it pushes back up into about the size we’re expecting from this current pulse. The south to southwest wind regime seems set to continue as well… At this point, there does not seem to be any prospect of solid swell for our region over the next week or so.

The best prospects for a decent wave look like being along the far north coast late in the week.

Have yourself a top old day!

TIDES L @ 0900, H @1550
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending southerly 20 to 25 knots by early evening.Sea: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots by early evening.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres.Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres.
Thursday: Wind: South to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots tending southerly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Only a few characters willing to brave the single digit temp this morning to get in for the early at Dee Why. Rideable sets are pretty far apart now, so those hardy types were doing a fair amount of waiting for the chest high bombs. Wind was offshore and it looks set to stay that way all day.

As the sun came over the horizon, the MHL buoy was showing about a metre of SE swell coming in at 9 seconds apart. That’s half the size of yesterday but thanks to the aforesaid period setting, it’s not into the realms of flatness quite yet.

The Outlook

From the shape of the forecast models this morning, we’re still looking at a gradual decline to flatness by Thursday. If they’ve got it right, the models say the flatness will last through most of Friday before a brief long period pulse comes in from the south. Assuming it pans out as currently predicted, Saturday morning’s early will be the peak. If the 14 second period shows up, we could see solidly overhead bomb sets at south facing beaches.

Right now the models show the peak of the pulse lasting about 12 hours – most of which will be when it’s dark. Beyond Saturday we really are getting into the highly speculative end of things. But, for what it’s worth, the prospect is for more small but not flat conditions as the average swell energy bumbles around in the 1-2 metre range. The continental high seems to be bouncing the southern ocean systems away from us for the time being.

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots.Sea: Below 1 metre.Swell: Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots later in the evening.Sea: Below 1 metre increasing 1 to 2 metres offshore.Swell: Southerly about 1 metre.
Thursday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 20 knots tending southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Hello Friends,

Swell energy has dropped back quite a bit since this time yesterday. Swell is currently around the metre mark with an average period of 8 seconds. On the plus side, it’s moved a touch more to the SSE, so that may help slightly. There was a smallish crew waiting at Dee Why point for the very occasional waist high set wave to peel along the rocks. The shorey was bigger, but for the most part shutting down heavily on those keen enough to jump into them.

Outlook is for the surf options to stay about the same in Sydney today. My hunch is that the best time to go wave hunting mid morning as the tide comes in. Just don’t expect to be catching much of anything above the waist to chest high mark. Wind is set to be mainly w to sw in the morning, before weakening into light seabreeze conditions this arvo in Sydney.

Looking ahead, current indications are that the waves will kinda hang around this level through mid next week… and then the models just go stupid. Depending on which riff on the data you favour, the call is currently for anywhere from 6 to 8(!) metres of south swell slamming into us Thursday-ish. Not surprisingly there’s also expected to be powering southerlies with the giant swell. I’ll be charging up my batteries for a bit of shooting, that’s for sure.

Go well with your day!

TIDES: L @0930, H @1545
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Friday until midnight: Wind: West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, inshore afternoon seabreezes less than 10 knots.Sea: to 1 metre. Swell: East to southeasterly about 1 metre.
Saturday: Wind: South to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending southeasterly during the afternoon.Sea: to 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Sunday: Wind: South to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tending east to northeasterly during the afternoon.