Hello Friends,

Another grey and dripping morning with visibility down to about a kilometre. Swell has come around to the east. It’s about 1.5 metres on average, but the period is still a paltry 7 seconds. The Bureau says it’ll be cloudy with mist patches and drizzle increasing to periods of rain as the east south easterly (blergh!) goes from the present 10-12 kts to 20-25 kts from the east to north-east. To the extent that it matters, tide swings about two metres from a high at 0740 to the low at 1420.

I’m keeping my hopes modest for tomorrow, but I do note that the Bureau says the wind should swing W-NW around lunch time. If the NE’r picks up as predicted later today, there might be a little something still coming in as the wind changes tomorrow.

Have yourself a great Friday!

Here’s a grab from the WRL cam of south Narrabeen. Looks as though Council’s spread out all that sand from Northy lagoon…

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds

Easterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots later in the evening.

Seas

1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres later in the evening.

Swell

Southeasterly about 1 metre.

Saturday 26 November

Winds

North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots around midday then tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening.

Seas

Up to 2 metres.

Swell

Southeasterly 0.5 to 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Not much happening down at Dee Why beach. The tide was high for the early risers and the metre and a bit of 7sec east wind swell was frothing lightly in. Sets would be struggling to get much above the waist high mark on the big ones. The small numbers in the water at Dee Why tell the tale I’d say. An unusual level of commitment is required.

The latest forecast is calling for a small Thursday but from tomorrow the trend is upward as we head toward a modest bump upward in energy levels for the weekend. If the prediction pans out, we’ll get a south east swell, ne wind combo that should potentially be fun at numerous spots in the Sydney region. Here’s hoping!

Apropos the very long range outlook, I’m still liking the look of the forecasts for mid next week. They continue to show a reasonably broad area of fetch around a low off to the NE of NZ. If anything develops, I’d expect it’ll be toward the end of next week before anything gets down our way. All highly speculative at this point of course, but fun to imagine the possibilities.

Go well with your day!

Tides: H @0915, L @1600

Weather Situation
A weak high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales coast. The high will move rapidly to the southeast today, although the ridge to the north will be maintained. A cold front will pass to the south during Friday and Saturday, bringing a southerly change to southern parts of the coast before the next drifts across from the west.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds: East to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southeasterly about 1 metre.

Forecast for Friday
Winds: Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Saturday
Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing below 10 knots during the morning then tending east to southeasterly during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Overnight the wind swell has moved from the SE to the east and although it’s actually pushed up slightly into the 1.5 metre range, the average period has slumped from 9 seconds yesterday afternoon, to around 7 seconds this morning. Throw in a steady 8-10kts of NNE sea breeze and you have a recipe for uncrowded conditions. When I first checked it a little before 0700, there wasn’t anyone in the water from the point to around half way to the Pole.

Tide’s high around 0940 this morning, so it’s not likely things will improve much. The late afternoon low at around 1630 is set to coincide with 20-30 kts of NE’ly, so my guess is that the best shot might be in the hour or so before dark when the tide has started to come in again and those straight hander banks are maybe a little less crunchy.

I’m out and about this morning, so I’ll try to grab another snap for an update later on.

Have yourself a good one!

Here’s a snap of a snap from around 0900 at north Curly.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system to the east of Tasmania is strengthening while a trough over South Australia draws slowly closer. This pattern will see northeasterly winds increasing along much of the New South Wales coast before the trough brings a southerly change towards the end of the week.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds: Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Southeasterly 1 to 2 metres.

Forecast for Thursday
Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots around dawn then becoming up to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around midday then increasing to 3 metres later in the evening. Swell: Easterly 2 metres. Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Friday
Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots tending west to northwesterly up to 15 knots during the morning then tending north to northeasterly during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon. Swell: Northeasterly about 2 metres. Isolated thunderstorms offshore during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Grey and misty old morning. So misty in fact that I can’t quite make out the beach yet. From the look of the models though, we’re sitting about where we were yesterday afternoon when it comes to the wave settings – ie 1.5m of short (7s) period east windswell. That should translate to waist high with the odd bigger one for the people at the Manly Fesitval of Surfing (and other beaches with good exposure to the swell direction).

Here’s how it looked at Gardens from atop Flight Deck at 0700…

The WRL cam reveals small activity around Gardens

So, the obvious question is: how’s it looking for the next few days in Sydney?

Not too fabulous is the answer. We’re looking like being stuck with a big old high that wraps around the coast from the bight to Queensland. It’s going to bump any serious energy away from our swell window for the next week – at least. The swell model interpretations are calling for the current smallness to gradually get smaller into the coming week. If you’re in Sydney it pretty much looks as though you can knock surfing out of the schedule from about Tuesday into the weekend. Spring is not my fave time of year.

TIDES: L @0533, H @1207, L @1907
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Sunday until midnight: Wind: E/NE 10/15 knots reaching 15/20 knots in the afternoon and evening.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: E about 2 metres.
Monday: Wind: NE 10/15 knots freshening to 15/20 knots in the afternoon. NE 10/15 knots. Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres.Swell: E about 1.5 metres.
Tuesday: Wind: NE 10/20 knots.

Hello Friends,

Wind is out of the east at 10-15 kts and the windswell is a gutless (7 sec period) 1.5 metres from the same direction. To be frank, it’s not the kind of thing you get up early for. At least it’s not quite as grey and misty as the last few mornings, and there is a slight possibility that as the day goes along, we may see a little improvement to the swell size. This is a prospect because the forecast is for the easterly onshores to increase into the 15-20kt range later.

Your best hope for a wave will be to lower your expectations into the very modest range, prepare yourself to surf onshore conditions (hey, the wave faces are smooth at least) and then find yourself a beach with good exposure to the primary swell direction (and that’s most of them in Sydney).

I’ll be back again in an hour or two with live updates from the Manly Festival of Surfing. Shari and I will be in the dual purpose RealSurf-Surfrider tent right on the beach front at the end of the Corso. We’re there from 0800 to 1700, so there’ll be lots of time to say hi to any of you good folk who are in Manly to check out the Festival.

More later!

Tide: H @1109, L @1805
Forecast for Saturday
Cloudy periods, with a few showers, mostly in the morning. Moderate
easterly winds.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: E/NE 10/15 knots reaching 15/20 knots at times.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres.Swell: E 1.5 to 2 metres.
Sunday: Wind: E/NE 10/15 knots reaching 15/20 knots at times.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: E about 1.5 metres.
Monday: Wind: NE 10/20 knots.