Articles tagged with "E-1m-9s"

Pretty pictures from this morning at Crescent Head

Posted by: on May 3rd, 2016

Dropping tide, healthy crowd (40+, lotsa boomers), sunny skies, light offshores and mostly knee to waist but with just enough chest to shoulder sets to keep it fun and interesting. After getting out, I grabbed the Fujifilm X-Pro2 and the 100-400mm lens I have for testing and sat at the top of the point, where the pictures below were taken. Big schedule today: eating, napping and another surf is the plan. Hoping to rinse and repeat tomorrow… but we’ll see…

Crescent Head surfer

Stepping up

Crescent Head surfer

Dancing

Crescent Head surfer

Stance wrong, but in the spot

Crescent Head surfer

Off the top at Crescent

Crescent Head surfer

Covered for a second

Crescent Head surfer

Tuesday drive

Crescent Head surfer

surfin’

Crescent Head surfer

Head dip

Corker but waveless at Dee Why

Posted by: on April 7th, 2015

Hello Friends,

Hmmm. Interesting. Another beautiful autumn morning with light offshores but only the tiniest line showing. There were a couple of bods hanging around at the point, but nothing remotely surfable appeared while I watched, and the beach appeared to be unoccupied to at least as far north as No Man’s. Tide was still coming in to the high at 1000.

The wind’s supposed to go NW and pick up later. At the same time the metre or so of 9-sec east swell is supposed to come up a touch more and a metre of southerly swell should be making itself felt as well. The latest MHL spectra chart for Sydney isn’t showing much out of the south that I can see, however at Batemans Bay the spectra is showing some 9 sec 1.4 metre SSE stuff, so maybe…

For about a week the models have been showing interesting stuff happening at the end of the week. The Bureau’s models are showing an east coast low off Batemans Bay early Wednesday. It’s expected to zip away from the coast on an easterly track but as it does, we’ll see a generally southerly swell start tracking up the coast toward us. It’ll mean gale force west to southwest wind in the morning for us, but the swell isn’t expected to arrive until Thursday, by which time the Bureau says we’ll have strong southwest wind going southerly around dark.

Not looking quite as exciting for Thursday as I’d thought earlier, but then again, other interpretations of the data are talking substantial energy arriving for us on Thursday morning. So, who do ya believe? The BoM’s swell prediction or various algorithms generating forecasts out of the NOAA data? Being a big optimist, I’m hoping the algorithms have picked it, because if they’re right, south corners could be pumping Thursday morning and through to Friday.

And, you wanna know something else? The aforementioned models are showing portentially crazy good conditions for early next week… woohoo! come on down autumn!

Have yourself a fine old Tuesday one and all.

dy morning

0745 Perfect but for the lack of waves

dee why point wave

Teaser for hopeful paddlers

From the Bureau…

Weather Situation
A low pressure system will move off New South Wales south coast by Tuesday afternoon and deepen bringing strong to gale force west to southwesterly winds along the south and central coasts Tuesday night. Winds a re expected to gradually ease during Thursday as the low moves away from the coast and a strong high pressure system moves south of the Bight extending a ridge to the western Tasman Sea behind the low.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres in the evening.
1st Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending east to northeasterly below 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.
Wednesday 8 April
Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning west to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning.
Thursday 9 April
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots turning southerly 25 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.

Tiny waves for the last day of crowdfunding

Posted by: on October 23rd, 2013

Tiny waves
Hello Friends,

Well, our two month campaign is into its final hours. It finishes at 0100 tomorrow morning, so if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, the time has come to join the more than 200 Friends of RealSurf who’ve already made their pledges. It’d be great to finish up what has been a very successful campaign with a final flourish. Be fantastic if those of you who’ve been meaning to do something could jump on board!

Although I’ve had to postpone the planned closing night party, we’re definitely going to get together to mark the crowdfunding achievement as soon as I’m in a position to reschedule. Thanks to all who’ve sent sympathetic messages too. My friend got through her operation but there’s a long hard road still ahead and my family and I are making sure the decks are clear in case we should need to drop everything and go north.

The last day of our crowdfunding drive dawned with a scrappy little east wind swell flopping into Dee Why with a light north ruffling the surface. Only a couple of people in the water, which tells you something in itself. The MHL spectral analysis from the Sydney buoy is showing a metre of 9 sec east and something similar from the south. Sets at Dee Why look to be around the knee to waist high and pretty weak. The wind is already ramping up out in the fire areas and we can expect it to start picking up from the N to NW out on the coast soon. Tide is high at 1035 and my guess is that we’ll have junky sideshore conditions all day. One for the desperados.

Tomorrow doesn’t look too hopeful at this stage, but come Friday the models are pointing toward a sort of sputtery run of south energy. Some of the interpretations of the data are projecting for potentially fun conditions from as early as tomorrow evening at south spots. If the modelling is even close to right, we should have stuff to play on in the mornings from Friday through to Monday.

Go well with your day and please make a pledge if you haven’t already!

Forecast issued at 4:20 am EDT on Wednesday 23 October 2013.
Weather Situation
A vigorous and complex low pressure system over the Bass Strait moves over the southern Tasman Sea this afternoon. Northerly winds ahead of this system this morning tend northwesterly later followed by a south to southwesterly wind change in the afternoon. Conditions will begin to ease as a strong high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge over NSW into Thursday.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong wind warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coastal Waters
Winds
North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots shifting southwesterly during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres.
Thursday 24 October
Strong wind warning for Thursday for Sydney Coastal Waters
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Friday 25 October
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning westerly during the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.

Small Sunday

Posted by: on March 31st, 2013

At least it's clean

Hello Friends,

The MHL buoy is registering about a metre and a bit of east wind swell. Average period is an okay 9 seconds or so and the wind was light and out of the NW before 0900. Tide was incoming to a high at a touch after noon today. A few bods in the water at Dee Why, but it seemed to be extremely inconsistent and from where people were sitting (just off the beach), I’d say sets above waist high would be few and far between. You might get a better result at a beach with better exposure to the swell direction such as the Narrabeen, Mona Vale or Manly stretches. You better step on it though because not only will the tide be increasingly an issue, the wind is supposed to go around to the south eventually.

Outlook for the coming week looks like sticking to the Goat’s forecast (of course!).

The charts are showing a little mid-week bump as some swell swings around Tas and into the Tasman. But at this stage, it appears the main energy will sail past the east coast.

The odd shower about over the next week as we continue the pattern of the last couple months. Roll on the bright offshore mornings of autumn!

Weather Situation
A trough over eastern New South Wales will move to the Tasman sea later today as a cold front passes to the south, pushing a southerly change along the coast. Behind this, as a high pressure system to the west is extending a ridge over the region. This high is expected to drift slowly across southeast Australia during the coming days, with most parts of the coast remaining in generally southerly winds until late in the week.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 knots before shifting southerly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Easterly 1 metre.
Monday 1 April
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Tuesday 2 April
Winds
Light and variable tending west to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the day then southerly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre rising to 1.5 to 2 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly about 1 metre.

Sticky: A sesh to be had early

Posted by: on December 18th, 2012

The odd catchable one

Hello Friends,

Grey skies start the day, but so do the waves. Not big or anything, but since the energy is mainly from the east at about 9 seconds apart, there should be waist to chest high sets – with the odd plus – this morning. Tide is high at a touch before 1300 and the wind is supposed to be light all morning. So, not a bad outlook overall.

And speaking of outlook, this morning’s swell modelling points toward smaller conditions tomorrow morning, but not flat. Then the same again for Thursday and Friday before, with any luck, we start to see some Evan energy. Some diversity in the predictions beyond that point, but at least a couple are showing solid east from about Sunday through to Monday or even Tuesday morning.

Go well with your day!

Weather Situation
A weak and slow moving trough will linger on the North Coast until early Wednesday before a northerly airstream becomes dominating ahead of an approaching trough. A southerly change is expected to develop on the far south coast early on Thursday before weakening and stalling on the North Coast on Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Wednesday 19 December
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms inshore in the afternoon and evening.
Thursday 20 December
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending northerly during the morning then shifting southerly during the afternoon.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms from midday.

Do something else

Posted by: on July 2nd, 2012


Hello Friends,

A good Monday to get caught up after a few days of surf – and before the next pulse arrives late tomorrow.

Dee Why was very small at 0830 when I grabbed the snap. In fact, I could only see a single surfer bobbing hopefully around amongst those productive banks up the beach from the SLSC. Looks as though they’ll have to sit there until sometime tomorrow afternoon before anything much happens. Swell is out of the east at about a metre at sea with an average period of 9 seconds. That should mean that more east exposed spots ought to have a little something late morning as we come up to the low tide at 1230.

The wind’s set to pick up, but at least it’ll be offshore, so the outlook for finding a little tiny something is not beyond reason. Just be happy if you find sets in the waist high range.

The forecast modelling this morning is showing the south swell arriving overnight and from around midday tomorrow it should, in theory, be pretty obvious at south swell spots.

It appears the swell will peak on Wednesday when the wind will still be SW and pretty strong. The SW’ly will be going pretty hard though. On Thursday some of the models are predicting the wind to go to the south as the swell begins to back off.

Have yourself a great Monday!

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea is slowly moving east and a high pressure system near the Bight is extending a ridge to the northern Tasman Sea. During Monday the low move will move slowly towards New Zealand as the high strengthens the ridge along New South Wales coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Tuesday 3 July
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Up to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Wednesday 4 July
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southerly during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.

Sticky: A touch smaller again, but still little waves to be found

Posted by: on August 26th, 2011

Hello Friends,

Swell is gradually fading away, but for the early risers, there were a few small waves to be had at spots with a liking for east swell. The Bureau says the morning offshore will be pushed away by a south change of 10-20 kts. As you can see from the picture above, set wave faces at Dee Why were around the waist to chest high mark. I’d expect there to be a slightly bigger sets at better exposed spots. Mind you, I’ll probably pass on Manly… 🙂

The swell forecast models are predicting that the wave energy will weaken gradually over the next couple days and by next week it looks as though we’ll be facing a 3-4 day lull in proceedings. The swell models are showing plenty of activity coming out of the southern ocean and running up the western side of the Tasman. Unfortunately the models aren’t showing much of the energy coming our way. One very long range prediction shows something happening toward the end of next week, but that’s pretty speculative stuff, so I’m not making any plans myself.

If I may beg your indulgence… you’ve probably noticed that we’re running a promo ad to see if we can sell some ad space via an auction. It closes in 3 days, so please check it out. Even if you’re pretty sure it’s not relevant to you, maybe you know someone who’d be might be interested…

To bid, you register here and the system will send you an activation email. Then you’re good to go. BTW, once you’re registered, you can also auction stuff yourself (there’s no charge to put something up).

Have yourself a great Friday!

Weather Situation
A ridge of high pressure extends across northern New South Wales to the central Tasman Sea, while a weakening cold front is bringing a brief southerly change to the southern half of the coast. Behind this front, winds will ease as the ridge strengthens across the south. Another weak southerly change is likely to affect the southern coast during Saturday, before a more vigorous cold front crosses the region on Monday.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots ahead of an early southerly change 10 to 20 knots, then tending east to northeasterly by evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres.
Saturday 27 August
Winds
North to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly around midday then tending east to northeasterly by early evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Sunday 28 August
Winds
South to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 metre.

Sticky: Waves around this morning and that’s a good thing

Posted by: on April 19th, 2011

Hello Friends,

High tide at about 0900 and swell is out of the east at about a metre. Period’s close to 9 seconds, so there are chest high sets showing in the beachbreak of Dee Why. There should be a fair number of places lighting up with this particular combo. Wind is light for the early, but is set to swing from the NE to SE. Water temp offshore is about 23 degrees too. Felt nice when I went for a dip at the point yesterday, so it should be good again today.

Fair number of bods in the water at Dee Why, but it’s not looking crazy or anything. From looking around yesterday, that seemed to be the pattern, ie, fair numbers in the water, but not exceptionally busy.

You’ll want to make an effort today though, because the models are all showing the waves disappearing pretty much over the next few days.

I’ll be sending postcards from across the pond over the next two weeks as I’m off to celebrate my dear old Dad’s 90th.

Have yourself a good one!

 

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea is slowly moving east. A cold front is expected to bring a weak southerly change to the New South Wales south and central coasts today before winds return to the northeast, ahead of another weak change on the south coast on Wednesday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending southeast to northeast during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.

Forecast for Wednesday
Winds: Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms offshore during the evening.

Forecast for Thursday
Winds: West to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northwesterly during the afternoon then increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 0.5 metres.

Sticky: As you were

Posted by: on September 10th, 2010

Hello Friends,

Not much going on at Dee Why this morning. You want more exposure to the east for the little swell that’s out at sea to have any prospect of a wave. The trendlines are not good for today, but the models show a small perk for tomorrow morning and I’m really liking the look of next week. If those supercomputers are right we could see a very long period south pulse toward the end of next week. I hasten to add that long experience shows these big calls typically get scaled back as we close in on the date in question. In this particular case though I’m cautiously hopeful because the predictions are for a general and solid uptick over a stretch of four to five days. So there ought to be something

So, have yourself a top old day and get up to some good somewhere, somehow!

 

 

Weather Situation

A cold front is moving across NSW. The front will move over the Tasman Sea during Friday and a low is expected to develop east of Tasmania. Northerly winds will increase in the north ahead of the front, and westerly winds will increase over the central and southern coast in the wake of the front.
Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds: West to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots tending westerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon then increasing to 25 to 35 knots by early evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening then increasing to 4 metres later in the evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms during this afternoon, more frequent offshore.
Forecast for Saturday

Winds: West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending south to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots around dawn then tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres around dawn then decreasing to below 1 metre around midday. Swell: Northeasterly about 1 metre tending southerly about 1.5 metres from the late morning.
Forecast for Sunday

Winds: West to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending northeast to northwesterly during the afternoon then tending north to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the evening. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.

PICS: Small but perfectly formed Nth Narrabeen at dusk

Posted by: on August 1st, 2010

A tiny but very clean little east swell combined with a low tide, offshore winds, and nice late afternoon light to create a good picture-taking opportunity.

 

Lotta bods in the water, but there were some surprisingly good looking waves. As usual, if you see yourself in one of these high res shots and want to get one without the watermark, just double click on it and look for the add to cart link to check out the ultra reasonable pricing!

North Narrabeen Sat 31 July 2010 (dusk) – Images by Don Norris

 

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