Dropping tide, healthy crowd (40+, lotsa boomers), sunny skies, light offshores and mostly knee to waist but with just enough chest to shoulder sets to keep it fun and interesting. After getting out, I grabbed the Fujifilm X-Pro2 and the 100-400mm lens I have for testing and sat at the top of the point, where the pictures below were taken. Big schedule today: eating, napping and another surf is the plan. Hoping to rinse and repeat tomorrow… but we’ll see…
Hmmm. Interesting. Another beautiful autumn morning with light offshores but only the tiniest line showing. There were a couple of bods hanging around at the point, but nothing remotely surfable appeared while I watched, and the beach appeared to be unoccupied to at least as far north as No Man’s. Tide was still coming in to the high at 1000.
The wind’s supposed to go NW and pick up later. At the same time the metre or so of 9-sec east swell is supposed to come up a touch more and a metre of southerly swell should be making itself felt as well. The latest MHL spectra chart for Sydney isn’t showing much out of the south that I can see, however at Batemans Bay the spectra is showing some 9 sec 1.4 metre SSE stuff, so maybe…
For about a week the models have been showing interesting stuff happening at the end of the week. The Bureau’s models are showing an east coast low off Batemans Bay early Wednesday. It’s expected to zip away from the coast on an easterly track but as it does, we’ll see a generally southerly swell start tracking up the coast toward us. It’ll mean gale force west to southwest wind in the morning for us, but the swell isn’t expected to arrive until Thursday, by which time the Bureau says we’ll have strong southwest wind going southerly around dark.
Not looking quite as exciting for Thursday as I’d thought earlier, but then again, other interpretations of the data are talking substantial energy arriving for us on Thursday morning. So, who do ya believe? The BoM’s swell prediction or various algorithms generating forecasts out of the NOAA data? Being a big optimist, I’m hoping the algorithms have picked it, because if they’re right, south corners could be pumping Thursday morning and through to Friday.
And, you wanna know something else? The aforementioned models are showing portentially crazy good conditions for early next week… woohoo! come on down autumn!
Have yourself a fine old Tuesday one and all.
0745 Perfect but for the lack of waves
Teaser for hopeful paddlers
From the Bureau…
Weather Situation A low pressure system will move off New South Wales south coast by Tuesday afternoon and deepen bringing strong to gale force west to southwesterly winds along the south and central coasts Tuesday night. Winds a re expected to gradually ease during Thursday as the low moves away from the coast and a strong high pressure system moves south of the Bight extending a ridge to the western Tasman Sea behind the low. Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast Winds Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening. Seas 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres in the evening. 1st Swell Easterly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending east to northeasterly below 1 metre around midday. 2nd Swell Southerly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon. Wednesday 8 April Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast Winds Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning west to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore during the afternoon and evening. Seas 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore. Swell Southerly below 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning. Thursday 9 April Winds Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots turning southerly 25 to 30 knots during the evening. Seas 2 to 2.5 metres. Swell Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the evening. Weather Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Well, our two month campaign is into its final hours. It finishes at 0100 tomorrow morning, so if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, the time has come to join the more than 200 Friends of RealSurf who’ve already made their pledges. It’d be great to finish up what has been a very successful campaign with a final flourish. Be fantastic if those of you who’ve been meaning to do something could jump on board!
Although I’ve had to postpone the planned closing night party, we’re definitely going to get together to mark the crowdfunding achievement as soon as I’m in a position to reschedule. Thanks to all who’ve sent sympathetic messages too. My friend got through her operation but there’s a long hard road still ahead and my family and I are making sure the decks are clear in case we should need to drop everything and go north.
The last day of our crowdfunding drive dawned with a scrappy little east wind swell flopping into Dee Why with a light north ruffling the surface. Only a couple of people in the water, which tells you something in itself. The MHL spectral analysis from the Sydney buoy is showing a metre of 9 sec east and something similar from the south. Sets at Dee Why look to be around the knee to waist high and pretty weak. The wind is already ramping up out in the fire areas and we can expect it to start picking up from the N to NW out on the coast soon. Tide is high at 1035 and my guess is that we’ll have junky sideshore conditions all day. One for the desperados.
Tomorrow doesn’t look too hopeful at this stage, but come Friday the models are pointing toward a sort of sputtery run of south energy. Some of the interpretations of the data are projecting for potentially fun conditions from as early as tomorrow evening at south spots. If the modelling is even close to right, we should have stuff to play on in the mornings from Friday through to Monday.
Go well with your day and please make a pledge if you haven’t already!
Forecast issued at 4:20 am EDT on Wednesday 23 October 2013. Weather Situation A vigorous and complex low pressure system over the Bass Strait moves over the southern Tasman Sea this afternoon. Northerly winds ahead of this system this morning tend northwesterly later followed by a south to southwesterly wind change in the afternoon. Conditions will begin to ease as a strong high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge over NSW into Thursday. Forecast for Wednesday until midnight Strong wind warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coastal Waters Winds North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots shifting southwesterly during the day. Seas 1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell Northeasterly 1.5 metres. Thursday 24 October Strong wind warning for Thursday for Sydney Coastal Waters Winds South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday. Friday 25 October Winds Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning westerly during the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots during the day. Seas Around 1 metre. Swell Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
The MHL buoy is registering about a metre and a bit of east wind swell. Average period is an okay 9 seconds or so and the wind was light and out of the NW before 0900. Tide was incoming to a high at a touch after noon today. A few bods in the water at Dee Why, but it seemed to be extremely inconsistent and from where people were sitting (just off the beach), I’d say sets above waist high would be few and far between. You might get a better result at a beach with better exposure to the swell direction such as the Narrabeen, Mona Vale or Manly stretches. You better step on it though because not only will the tide be increasingly an issue, the wind is supposed to go around to the south eventually.
The charts are showing a little mid-week bump as some swell swings around Tas and into the Tasman. But at this stage, it appears the main energy will sail past the east coast.
The odd shower about over the next week as we continue the pattern of the last couple months. Roll on the bright offshore mornings of autumn!
Weather Situation A trough over eastern New South Wales will move to the Tasman sea later today as a cold front passes to the south, pushing a southerly change along the coast. Behind this, as a high pressure system to the west is extending a ridge over the region. This high is expected to drift slowly across southeast Australia during the coming days, with most parts of the coast remaining in generally southerly winds until late in the week. Forecast for Sunday until midnight Winds West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 knots before shifting southerly 10 to 15 knots during the day. Seas Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres around midday. Swell Easterly 1 metre. Monday 1 April Winds South to southeasterly about 10 knots. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Southeasterly about 1.5 metres. Tuesday 2 April Winds Light and variable tending west to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the day then southerly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Seas Below 1 metre rising to 1.5 to 2 metres during the evening. Swell Southerly about 1 metre.
Grey skies start the day, but so do the waves. Not big or anything, but since the energy is mainly from the east at about 9 seconds apart, there should be waist to chest high sets – with the odd plus – this morning. Tide is high at a touch before 1300 and the wind is supposed to be light all morning. So, not a bad outlook overall.
And speaking of outlook, this morning’s swell modelling points toward smaller conditions tomorrow morning, but not flat. Then the same again for Thursday and Friday before, with any luck, we start to see some Evan energy. Some diversity in the predictions beyond that point, but at least a couple are showing solid east from about Sunday through to Monday or even Tuesday morning.
Go well with your day!
Weather Situation A weak and slow moving trough will linger on the North Coast until early Wednesday before a northerly airstream becomes dominating ahead of an approaching trough. A southerly change is expected to develop on the far south coast early on Thursday before weakening and stalling on the North Coast on Friday. Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Winds Variable about 10 knots becoming southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly 1.5 metres. Wednesday 19 December Winds Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly about 1.5 metres. Weather The chance of thunderstorms inshore in the afternoon and evening. Thursday 20 December Winds Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending northerly during the morning then shifting southerly during the afternoon. Seas Up to 1.5 metres. Swell Easterly 1 to 2 metres. Weather The chance of thunderstorms from midday.
A good Monday to get caught up after a few days of surf – and before the next pulse arrives late tomorrow.
Dee Why was very small at 0830 when I grabbed the snap. In fact, I could only see a single surfer bobbing hopefully around amongst those productive banks up the beach from the SLSC. Looks as though they’ll have to sit there until sometime tomorrow afternoon before anything much happens. Swell is out of the east at about a metre at sea with an average period of 9 seconds. That should mean that more east exposed spots ought to have a little something late morning as we come up to the low tide at 1230.
The wind’s set to pick up, but at least it’ll be offshore, so the outlook for finding a little tiny something is not beyond reason. Just be happy if you find sets in the waist high range.
The forecast modelling this morning is showing the south swell arriving overnight and from around midday tomorrow it should, in theory, be pretty obvious at south swell spots.
It appears the swell will peak on Wednesday when the wind will still be SW and pretty strong. The SW’ly will be going pretty hard though. On Thursday some of the models are predicting the wind to go to the south as the swell begins to back off.
Have yourself a great Monday!
Weather Situation A complex low pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea is slowly moving east and a high pressure system near the Bight is extending a ridge to the northern Tasman Sea. During Monday the low move will move slowly towards New Zealand as the high strengthens the ridge along New South Wales coast. Forecast for Monday until midnight Winds Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the morning. Seas Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres by early evening. Swell Easterly about 1.5 metres. Tuesday 3 July Winds Southwesterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the early afternoon. Seas Up to 3 metres. Swell Southerly about 1.5 metres. Wednesday 4 July Winds Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southerly during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 metres. Swell Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Swell is gradually fading away, but for the early risers, there were a few small waves to be had at spots with a liking for east swell. The Bureau says the morning offshore will be pushed away by a south change of 10-20 kts. As you can see from the picture above, set wave faces at Dee Why were around the waist to chest high mark. I’d expect there to be a slightly bigger sets at better exposed spots. Mind you, I’ll probably pass on Manly… 🙂
The swell forecast models are predicting that the wave energy will weaken gradually over the next couple days and by next week it looks as though we’ll be facing a 3-4 day lull in proceedings. The swell models are showing plenty of activity coming out of the southern ocean and running up the western side of the Tasman. Unfortunately the models aren’t showing much of the energy coming our way. One very long range prediction shows something happening toward the end of next week, but that’s pretty speculative stuff, so I’m not making any plans myself.
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Have yourself a great Friday!
Weather Situation A ridge of high pressure extends across northern New South Wales to the central Tasman Sea, while a weakening cold front is bringing a brief southerly change to the southern half of the coast. Behind this front, winds will ease as the ridge strengthens across the south. Another weak southerly change is likely to affect the southern coast during Saturday, before a more vigorous cold front crosses the region on Monday. Forecast for Friday until midnight Winds West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots ahead of an early southerly change 10 to 20 knots, then tending east to northeasterly by evening. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Northeasterly 1.5 metres. Saturday 27 August Winds North to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly around midday then tending east to northeasterly by early evening. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Northeasterly about 1.5 metres. Sunday 28 August Winds South to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly during the evening. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly 1 metre.
High tide at about 0900 and swell is out of the east at about a metre. Period’s close to 9 seconds, so there are chest high sets showing in the beachbreak of Dee Why. There should be a fair number of places lighting up with this particular combo. Wind is light for the early, but is set to swing from the NE to SE. Water temp offshore is about 23 degrees too. Felt nice when I went for a dip at the point yesterday, so it should be good again today.
Fair number of bods in the water at Dee Why, but it’s not looking crazy or anything. From looking around yesterday, that seemed to be the pattern, ie, fair numbers in the water, but not exceptionally busy.
You’ll want to make an effort today though, because the models are all showing the waves disappearing pretty much over the next few days.
I’ll be sending postcards from across the pond over the next two weeks as I’m off to celebrate my dear old Dad’s 90th.
Have yourself a good one!
Weather Situation A high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea is slowly moving east. A cold front is expected to bring a weak southerly change to the New South Wales south and central coasts today before winds return to the northeast, ahead of another weak change on the south coast on Wednesday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending southeast to northeast during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.
Forecast for Wednesday Winds: Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms offshore during the evening.
Forecast for Thursday Winds: West to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northwesterly during the afternoon then increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 0.5 metres.
Not much going on at Dee Why this morning. You want more exposure to the east for the little swell that’s out at sea to have any prospect of a wave. The trendlines are not good for today, but the models show a small perk for tomorrow morning and I’m really liking the look of next week. If those supercomputers are right we could see a very long period south pulse toward the end of next week. I hasten to add that long experience shows these big calls typically get scaled back as we close in on the date in question. In this particular case though I’m cautiously hopeful because the predictions are for a general and solid uptick over a stretch of four to five days. So there ought to be something…
So, have yourself a top old day and get up to some good somewhere, somehow!
A cold front is moving across NSW. The front will move over the Tasman Sea during Friday and a low is expected to develop east of Tasmania. Northerly winds will increase in the north ahead of the front, and westerly winds will increase over the central and southern coast in the wake of the front. Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds: West to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots tending westerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon then increasing to 25 to 35 knots by early evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening then increasing to 4 metres later in the evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms during this afternoon, more frequent offshore. Forecast for Saturday
Winds: West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending south to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots around dawn then tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres around dawn then decreasing to below 1 metre around midday. Swell: Northeasterly about 1 metre tending southerly about 1.5 metres from the late morning. Forecast for Sunday
Winds: West to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending northeast to northwesterly during the afternoon then tending north to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the evening. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.
A tiny but very clean little east swell combined with a low tide, offshore winds, and nice late afternoon light to create a good picture-taking opportunity.
Lotta bods in the water, but there were some surprisingly good looking waves. As usual, if you see yourself in one of these high res shots and want to get one without the watermark, just double click on it and look for the add to cart link to check out the ultra reasonable pricing!