Articles tagged with "ENE-1m-7s"

Southerly going before daybreak

Posted by: on November 6th, 2014

Hello Friends,

As of 0430 the south wind was blowing 20-25 kts along the Sydney coast. The MHL buoy was reporting a lacklustre metre or so of 7-sec period ENE wind bump. And the tide was incoming to this morning’s high at 0820. The weather radar was showing only a few isolated dots of precipitation, but the forecast says there’s an 80% chance of rain for today.

So, all and all, not the most beautiful set of numbers one could hope for.

This morning’s swell modelling contains little of interest for Sydney across the next few days, indeed, if they have it right, surfin’ opportunities look minimal until early next week.

Meanwhile over in southern California we pretty much have a lake rather than an ocean. And we look like having to wait until next week too before anything really changes. At the same time we’re having a real Indian summer day with clear skies and 28 degrees before 1000. Yikes.

Not sure if I’ll have a postcard for you today, perhaps later…

Go well and keep on smilin’!

Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking

View the current warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Thursday 6 November 2014.

Weather Situation

A weakening trough current over the central coast will move north along the Hunter Coast and Mid North Coast today bringing a weak southerly change to these waters. A weak high pressure system will develop over the western Tasman Sea tonight with winds turning northeasterly along most of the coast Friday then strengthening over southern and central parts on Saturday. The next southwest to southerly change is expected to move along the coast Saturday night and Sunday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots easing to about 15 knots later this morning then tending southeasterly. Winds becoming variable at less than 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Friday 7 November

Winds
South to southeasterly below 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the morning then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 8 November

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Very small but maybe

Posted by: on March 11th, 2014

Hello Friends,

No good news for Dee Why this morning really. Well, I guess it is sunny and glassy. That’s good. But waves are few and far between. Sets are struggling to crack the knee high mark on the bigger ones.

What we have is coming mainly from the ENE at about 7 seconds apart. It’s around a metre at sea, so I suppose at an ideally exposed spot, you might see something around waist high every now and again. So, not absolutely flat.

A few keen folk giving it a go.

A few keen folk giving it a go.

Looking at this morning’s swell modelling efforts, it seems as though the expected east pulse is still more or less on schedule to start sending us a few forerunners late Thursday and Friday, but the peak seems to have shifted to Sunday-Monday. A couple of the interpretations say we won’t see much of anything until Sunday, others reckon the fun could start Friday. Wind will be pretty strong though. The Bureau says mainly northerly on Friday; SW early Saturday, then NNW; Sunday looks like very strong northerlies, but come Monday, it’s set to be strongly offshore…

All very interesting to contemplate…

Go well with your Tuesday one and all!

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Tuesday 11 March 2014.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge into New South Wales, while a trough approaches from the southwest. This trough is expected to bring a southerly change to the southern coast during Wednesday as the ridge weakens and contracts east. The trough should then move to central parts on Thursday before stalling and decaying. There are early indications that a cold front may affect the region later on the weekend.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the afternoon/evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Wednesday 12 March
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending northerly before dawn then becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms at night.
Thursday 13 March
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.

Sticky: Waiting on Huey

Posted by: on February 28th, 2012

Hello Friends,

Wan sunlight and mostly cloudy skies as Tuesday got started. But the rain is coming. As I write this the radio is reporting heavy falls way down south along the border. We might have a thunderstorm or two later today, but from tomorrow through Friday morning, the call is for that rain to be heavy at times. At the same time, we’ll be treated to a run of mainly southerly winds. Sadly, it doesn’t looks as though we’ll get anything too remarkable on the wave front.

Current reckoning from the computer models is that Sydney will see some size on Saturday morning, but it’ll be windy and messy and the water will be well and truly foul.

I’m hoping that come Sunday morning, we’ll have slightly better conditions and a little fading swell to play with.

In the meantime, my best wishes for your day!

TIDES: L @0615, H @1210

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast and is directing north to northeasterly winds over coastal waters. Heavy rainfalls is expected to develop over the southern half of New South Wales on Tuesday as a strong low pressure system develops over New South Wales. Associated with this system, a southerly wind change will move up the southern half of the coast on Tuesday, bringing a gusty change to districts south of Sydney during the afternoon. On Wednesday this wind change will progress further north. On Thursday a low may develop off the Illawarra or South Coast.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots tending northeast to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. A gusty southerly change 15 to 20 knots developing just before midnight. Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 1.5 metres during late evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 29 February
Winds
An early southerly change of 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday 1 March
Winds
Northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots then tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres.
-Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Bureau of Meteorology

Sticky: Bump, bump, bumping along near flatness

Posted by: on October 24th, 2011

Hello Friends,

In line with expectations, we have another morning of marginal to flat conditions in Sydney. There’s about a metre of ENE 7 second period wind swell out at sea, but it was too small at Dee Why to attract any punters at around 0700.

To the extent it matters, the wind was light early but it should go NE this afternoon and push up to 20-30 kts ahead of a late, gusty south change. The wind will drop off to 10-15 kts SW by tomorrow morning, so there just might be a little bump around the place if we’re lucky.

Looking ahead, the swell models are still pointing at a small but very long period south pulse late Weds into Thursday. The wind outlook isn’t too flash, but maybe we’ll get lucky…

Have yourself a great Monday!

Weather Situation
A stationary high pressure system over the northern Tasman Sea extends a ridge into northern New South Wales. This high pressure ridge is weakening ahead of a cold front that is currently situated to the west of Tasmania. This front is forecast to sweep across southeast Australia during Monday and Tuesday, bringing a southerly change to most of the New South Wales coast before it weakens into a trough over the north. Following this, the next high is forecast to move from the Bight to the southern Tasman Sea mid-week, establishing an onshore airstream.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 10 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon and to 20 to 30 knots by early evening. Late gusty southerly change 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres by early evening then increasing to 3 metres later in the evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Tuesday 25 October
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots around dawn then becoming southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Inshore sea breezes.
Seas
Up to 3 metres decreasing below 1.5 metres around dawn.
Swell
Easterly 1 metre tending southeasterly about 2 metres from the late morning.
Wednesday 26 October
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly about 2 metres.

Just a hint and not much more

Posted by: on August 5th, 2011

 

 

Hello Friends,

Another almost still and sunny morning for the old Sydney. But, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, from tomorrow it’s all change as we move into another stretch of cool, cloudy and showery weather. There was only a tiny trickle of NE windswell showing on the MHL buoy as Friday got started. The BoM doesn’t foresee any significant improvement to energy levels today, but by this afternoon it might possibly be a touch bigger if the period improves from around 7 seconds to something closer to 9 or 10.

The Goat hasn’t rolled out his usual end of the week prognostication as of this writing, so I’ll just opine that the Bureau and the wave models are showing only a slight improvement to surf prospects over the next couple days, but, if they have it right, we could see a nice solid pulse on Monday morning as a the swell swings south and ramps up into the 2-3 metre range. If we’re lucky there might be something Sunday afternoon and right now it looks as though the wind should be out of the westerly quarters. From Tuesday onward though the Bureau says we’re in for a run of briskly southerly conditions.

Have yourself a great Friday!

TIDES: L @0610, H @1230

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will maintain a ridge towards northeastern New South Wales until Saturday. A broad low pressure trough is expected to gradually move along the coast during the weekend with a low developing off the South Coast on Sunday which is expected to deepen and drift north early next week.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Saturday 6 August
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then increasing to 10 to 20 knots by early evening.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms offshore from midday.
Sunday 7 August
Winds
West to northwesterly 5 to 15 knots becoming westerly 10 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 metre tending southerly 2 metres from the morning.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters

Sticky: Grey grey go away

Posted by: on November 10th, 2010

Hello Friends,

Can’t see much to be excited about for surfers at Dee Why this morning. Admittedly, it’s not necessarily the first spot you’d look for waves when the energy is coming from the ENE at a feeble 7 second interval. But, I don’t reckon it’ll be too fabulous anywhere else either. I couldn’t see anyone in the water when I climbed aloft to the RealSurf crow’s nest for a squiz at the new day. Tide was coming in to a high at around 1050, so that probably wasn’t helping much. And the very low cloud was adding a gloomy aspect to proceedings. The wind wasn’t an issue, but with bomb sets struggling to a feeble knee to waist high, it was almost beside the point.

Hey, what can ya do? It’s spring idin’it?

A few thoughts on the outlook as we hit the midweek mark.

From the shape of the models, we’re settling into a protacted period of 6-8 sec NE wind swell in the 1 to 1.5 metre range. Said models are showing activity in the southern ocean and off to the east of NZ over the next week, but at this stage it looks unlikely that we’ll see any significant fetch zones pointing our way for the time being. Maybe this time next week we might get a slight upward bump into the chest to head high range at east to ne spots. I don’t have high confidence on that right now, but it at least looks plausible.

Go well with your plans today and have a good one.

Weather Situation

A semi-stationary high over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to southeast Queensland. This pattern will persist for several days.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds: North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending northerly 15 to 25 knots later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms.

Forecast for Thursday

Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots at times, decreasing to 10 to 20 knots around dawn then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning. Seas: Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around midday. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms.

Forecast for Friday

Winds: Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon then increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre.

Commonwealth of Australia 2010, Bureau of Meteorology

Sticky: NE wind working its magic (?)

Posted by: on March 7th, 2010

How it looked at the north end of the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch around 1245.

Earlier today over the jump…
Read the rest of this entry �

Sticky: Real small, but not flat

Posted by: on February 23rd, 2010

Hello Friends,

With the forecast calling for south wind this morning, your correspondent decided to make an early start on the day. I checked the Warriewood to Mona stretch first. Not super fabulous, it has to be said. The little windswell is mostly in the knee high range but here and there, depending on the current state of the tide, you might find a little peak focusing. However, the southerly isn’t going to do a lot to help things, surface-wise. Judging from the buoy data coming in from down at Eden and Batemans Bay, there is reason to think that we’ll also get an uptick in the south swell over the course of the day.

About the best I saw early was a sort of complex of peaks from carparks North. Quite a few bods on it, but as we got closer to 0900, more and more folks had to peel off to attend to other obligations. I sampled a few myself and can report that the water was beautiful.

On the way back to the office I swung into Longy for a squizz at happenings. No south swell energy apparent, but the wind was chopping up the knee high froth for a couple mal riders up the north end. From there south to the single surfer waiting hopefully in front of the DYSLSC there was not another person in the water.

Ok, gonna post this and then have a look at the latest run of the models for ya…

 

 

TIDES: L @1030, H @1622
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong wind warning.
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: W/NW 8/13 knots ahead turning SW early morning then S’ly 20/30 knots during the morning.Sea: about 1 metre rising to 2 to 3 metres behind the change.Swell: Increasing to S/SE 2 to 2.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: S/SE 10/15 knots tending E/SE.. Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: S 2 to 2.5 metres.

Thursday: Wind: E/SE 5/15 knots.

Very small Sunday

Posted by: on July 26th, 2009

Swell is just about out of gas...

Swell is just about out of gas...


Hello Friends,
Little tiny waves are all we have on offer this morning in Sydney. Swell out at sea is around about a metre at 7 seconds apart. It’s coming from the ENE, so that should mean that a few spots which have missed out on the small mainly southerly wavelets could be picking up some knee high action today. Mind you, we’re going to a biggish high tide at 1136, so I expect whatever little peaks that may be working now to be throughly swamped before long.

Outlook for the next few days is looking pretty abject for Sydney, but the models are currently showing the possibility of solid, long period groundswell around Fri-Sat. That of course is right at the limit of the models, so I wouldn’t be committing to a plan just let, but if it shapes up the way they predict, we could see exceptionally long periods (15 sec) – which means swell getting into well protected corners and having heaps of power at exposed locations. Replacement board sales week after next could zoom!

FWIW, one interpretation of the model data is also showing a solid pulse hitting us around Thursday. Between now and then though… good for catching up on things I’d say.

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Sunday until midnight: Wind: N/NW 15/20 knots, reaching 20/25 knots at times chiefly offshore, tending W/NW in the evening. Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres.Swell: E/SE about 1 metre.
Monday: Wind: W/SW 15/20 knots.Sea: choppy. Swell: E/SE about 1 metre.
Tuesday: Wind: W/SW 15/25 knots easing.

The calm

Posted by: on March 26th, 2009

Hello Friends,

Climbed up to the crows nest to see how we’re traveling this morning. If Dee Why’s a reasonable indicator, the answer is we’re not going all that well. Weather is nice but the lack of swell activity isn’t. I’m calling Dee Why 2/10.

We’re due for a cloudy and warm day and south change is set to come through later.

The MHL Sydney buoy is showing a metre of ENE windswell with a period of about 7 seconds.

Here’s the call from the Bureau:

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Thursday until midnight: Wind: N/NE 10/15 knots, reaching 15/20 knots at times this afternoon ahead of a S’ly change 20/30 knots late evening.Sea: 1 to 2 metres, rising to 2 to 3 metres behind the change.Swell: E’ly 1 to 1.5 metres. Isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorms.
Friday: Wind: S/SE 20/30 knots, easing 15/20 knots by the afternoon, 10/15 knots at night.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, abating to 1.5 to 2 metres.Swell: E/SE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Saturday: Wind: SE/NE 8/13 knots. Winds increasing NE 10/15 knots during the afternoon.

Meanwhile, up at the Goldy, it’s looking much more interesting. Dig this snap from the WRL cam at Snapper:

WRL cam showing Snapper going pretty well.

WRL cam showing Snapper going pretty well.


and then there’s Dee Why…
0740: bomb set burbles weakly to the shore.

0740: bomb set burbles weakly to the shore.

 

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