At 0615 wind was lightly out of the NE to ENE along the Sydney region’s beaches. Skies were overcast with a distinct chance of the odd shower and tide was dropping toward the low at 1010.
Climbing aloft to the RealSurf crows nest, I knew not to expect to see much down at Dee Why because the MHL spectra from 0200 was showing only a metre or so of straight south swell with an average period of nearly 10 seconds.
Wind is set to stick around at more or less the current intensity all day. So, I reckon you’ll be wanting to check the north corners for the best combo of the fading swell and the generally onshore conditions.
The Goat usually files his prognostications on a Thursday, so I’ll be looking forward to his words of wisdom in the hope he’ll see something in the prospects for the week ahead that I can’t.
Have yourself a pleasant Thursday one and all!
The old Sydney gleaming.
A high pressure system centred near Tasmania extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, while a low pressure trough deepens over the state’s west. The high will move slowly eastwards during the next few days, weakening on the weekend as it drifts across the Tasman Sea. This will allow the next trough and cold front from the Southern Ocean to pass across southeastern Australia.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly in the late evening.
Below 1 metre.
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Friday 10 January
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Saturday 11 January
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
1 to 1.5 metres.
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Again very small to near flat this morning. We have about a metre of 10 sec period south swell coming in according to the MHL buoy data. When I first scoped it from the crows nest a little before 0700, there was a tiny knee-ish high line trickling into the southern end of the beach. Winds were light early, but there’s a strong wind warning for N to NE’rs later. That won’t do this swell much good and it could drop the water temps inshore as well. Not that it matters too much because surf prospects are so marginal.
Can’t say I’m too impressed by the outlook. The Bureau’s modelling is showing slightly better prospects than some of the other swell model interpretations out there. The problem is that for some reason, the Bureau’s meteye charts don’t show the direction or period. You have to get that stuff elsewhere and what elsewhere’s showing this morning is another week at least of the current faint swell activity.
Tides aren’t swinging much between the low a little before 0800 and the high at 1440.
I reckon the RealSurf crowdfunding effort is off to a very good start. Yesterday I was thinking about how the first folks to come on board are sorta like the dawn patrol. They’re keen, up early and prepared to go hard. It’s been very cool to see both new, as well as familiar, names turning up. So, are you going to join the dawn patrol today, or do I have to keep workin’ on ya to come for a surf later? Just click here and you can do the deed right now.
Whatever you decide, best wishes for a top old day and keep on smilin’ through!
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Thursday 29 August 2013.
A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, while a low pressure trough approaches the state’s west. Coastal winds will increase ahead of this trough – which is expected to reach the southern coast Friday morning and the northern coast by early Saturday – then ease in it’s wake. Following this, another high is expected to develop across the region during the weekend, promoting a return to generally light wind conditions.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong wind warning for Thursday for Sydney Coastal Waters
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon and 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres by evening.
Southerly around 1 metre.
Friday 30 August
Strong wind warning for Friday for Sydney Coastal Waters
Northerly 20 to 30 knots easing to 15 to 25 knots in the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the evening.
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres around midday.
South to southeasterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres through the day.
Saturday 31 August
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Around 1 metre.
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell has perked ever so slightly this morning. But it’s out of the south at only about a metre, so you’ll do well to pick up something in the waist high range at exposed spots. Looked to be a long wait for really fairly feeble waves. There were only three people in the water at Dee Why and maybe three times that number at Northy. I think it’s safe to say that you probably can’t take anything too floaty this morning. Those waves need all the help they can get.
The models aren’t showing too much for the rest of the day, but they continue to hold out hope of a small but long period pulse of east swell for tomorrow. Then it looks like going back to small for the rest of the work week ahead of a new southerly pulse at the weekend. Right now said pulse is shaping to be big, but wind whipped thanks to a persistent southerly.
Go forth and enjoy your Tuesday!
TIDED: H @0700, L @1235
A high pressure system, currently centred near New South Wales coast, will move east over the western Tasman Sea towards New Zealand during Tuesday. A cold front will move east across Victoria and the southern parts of New South Wales during Wednesday. The front will be followed by another high pressure system moving over the Bight on Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will develop off the northern New South Wales coast during Thursday and deepen into a low by late Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
1 to 1.5 metres.
Southerly 1 metre.
Wednesday 18 July
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots later in the evening.
Below 1 metre.
Southerly 0.5 metres tending easterly about 1 metre from midday.
Thursday 19 July
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning then increasing to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Easterly 1 to 2 metres.
Only tiny, infrequent lines appearing at Dee Why this morning. One person was in the water up the beach from the SLSC at about 0700, but I didn’t see them come close to catching anything. I’d say you’d be doing pretty well if you found anything to propel you toward the sand this morning.
According to the MHL buoy data, the swell at sea is around the metre mark. It’s coming from the south at a reasonably healthy 10 seconds apart but there’s just not much of anything showing.
Outlook for the coming week continues to be for small to flat. Winds are expected to go around to the SE tomorrow and to stay out of the southerly quarters through to the weekend. The hopeful signs in the long range forecast of a day or two ago have become less so in this morning’s forecast round up. Oh well.
Have yourself a great Monday!
TIDES: H @0800, L @1350
A cold front is expected to cross much of the state on Monday with a southerly change moving over coastal waters, strong in the south. A high pressure ridge should then extend over southern and western NSW while a weak trough lies of the north coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Westerly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southwesterly during the afternoon then tending south to southeasterly at 15 to 20 knots by early evening.
Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the evening.
Easterly 1 metre.
The chance of thunderstorms offshore late this evening.
Tuesday 30 August
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots by early evening.
Up to 1.5 metres.
Easterly 1 metre tending southeasterly from the morning.
Wednesday 31 August
Southeast to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending east to northeasterly during the evening.
Below 1 metre.
Southeasterly about 1 metre.
Thought I’d head up the peninsula to see if the swell was doing anything interesting. Drove as far as Avalon where I discovered a small group at the south end waiting and waiting for the very occasional shoulder high set wave. Watched for quite awhile before deciding it was just too inconsistent to set up the camera. Checked in at the peak in Newport to see what the dozen or so bods were doing on it. It was more consistent than Av, but the larger number of people meant the wait for waves was probably about the same on average. Size was a touch smaller too. Took the following picture:
Next stop was Mona Vale. Again, smallish (compared to the last few days) and rather busy considering. I think the swell was just too south for the place to really start working properly, so after watching for a bit, I headed off south to see what Northy was looking like. It was a case of hmmm… yeah… busy, inconsistent with the odd shoulder high one, but like Mona, not really the best swell direction for the place. Still, it did produce at least something for the camera…
Stopped for a squizz at Longy. Waves were a touch smaller on average I thought, but there were lots of fine folk chasing ’em from the Lugga to the Dee Why end. Shutdowns were well in front of makeable sections, but I walked down to the water’s edge and took a snap for your amusement.
Last stop on my little journey was Curl Curl. It certainly looked a picture, particularly toward the south end. I watched for some time before finally deciding that since this is the last of the sunny weather and offshore waves for awhile, that I might as well do some shooting. I spent nearly an hour grabbing snaps (including some of a nice chap who introduced himself as a long time RealSurf fan). They’ve just finished processing, but I can’t upload them yet because the hundreds of shots I got yesterday morning at Manly and in the evening at Dee Why are still making their way to the server. Should be up by this evening I hope! Here’s a sample…
The story of the morning is that our lovely run of swell and weather is fading rapidly away. This morning the MHL buoy is showing that the primary swell direction is pretty close to dead south and the average height at sea is just a hair above a metre. The only setting that hasn’t changed much from yesterday is the all important period. It’s still very close to ten seconds and as a consequence there was a reason for the punters to be on it at Dee Why point as the sun came into view over the horizon. The sets are around the chest to head high mark, so it’s not looking too bad. I’d expect the other south spots to be showing as well, so get out there if you can…
Wind is light westerly right now, but the call is for it to swing SW and to start ramping up strongly. The weather is set to be sunny this morning, but by this evening we could be seeing a few showers as we head into what looks to be a pretty blustery weekend. The Bureau says we’re going to see a return to grey and showery weather for the next week.
Happily, I’ve shot us a nice record of the swell action, so we can look back and reflect upon Huey’s excellent work. As I write this a few hundred pictures from yesterday morning at Manly (I’d call it 8 out of 10) and Dee Why beach in the late afternoon are uploading to my galleries. It’ll be a few hours before they’re all up, but sometime this afternoon I should be able to switch them on…
In the meantime, I might try to find one more shooting sesh before the great conditions go away… say hi if you see me down there and go well with your day.
TIDES: L @0800, H @1400
A complex low pressure system lies near Tasmania with an associated trough over the western Tasman Sea. During Friday the low will move slowly to the east and a high pressure system will move south of the Bight extending a ridge to New South Wales north coast. The high is expected to move slowly east over the next few days strengthening the ridge across the Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds: Southwesterly 10 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening then increasing to 2 to 3 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southeasterly about 2 metres.
Forecast for Saturday
Winds: South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots becoming southerly 20 to 25 knots by early evening then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Forecast for Sunday
Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.
Coming on to a high tide at 0830, the waves of Sydney were once again marginal thanks to a much diminished south swell and a less than delectable serving of SSE wind to go with it. Biggest set wave I saw was around the waist high mark. Not all that appetizing it has to be said.
The trend is downward across the next 24 hours, so those who are desperate should get out there now. The next little pulse is supposed to arrive on Christmas eve, but it’s not likely to be much more dramatic than what we had this morning.
According to the latest run of the models, the pattern of the last couple months seems likely to continue. Swell energy is heading up the Tasman alright, but it’s well out to sea, so we aren’t likely to see much of interest. With luck, we’ll get the odd little uptick to justify getting wet along the way.
Have yourself a good one!
A deep low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is moving steadily southeast, while a high south of the Bight extends a weak ridge into New South Wales. As the ridge becomes dominant, onshore winds will develop today. A cold front passing to the south will bring a southerly change to the southern and central coasts during Thursday, while a trough develops off the northern coast. Another southerly change is likely to develop later on the weekend.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds: Southwest to southeasterly 5 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots at times. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Thursday
Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots decreasing below 15 knots around dawn then tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots around midday. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.
Forecast for Friday
Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing up to 2 metres during the morning. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
The light was good and there were a few long period set waves showing up at Dee Why early on Saturday morning. So I wandered down to the point to see what was what. Quite a few bods in the water enduring very, very long waits between the sets. Still, I got a few pics to share. As usual, if you want to buy one, it’s very simple, just double-click on the picture to see it full size and then look for the “add to cart” link top left…
0900: unless you have a team of people rowing, it looks like catching one at Dee Why will be a challenge.
Don’t like the look of those pics PB grabbed this morning. Yes, it’s undeniably lovely, mild and sunny, but there is next to nothing happening on the wave front. At Dee Why beach, the only people catching anything were in a surfboat (I guess it’s just a plain boat this morning). It’s damn puny and there’s not much in the tea leaves to suggest any real improvement. The current reading is showing a metre of south swell at a respectable 10 seconds, but there’s nothing approaching a metre of face that I can see at Dee Why.
The Bureau is still for light NW this morning, swinging to the NE and getting along at 15-20 kts. Just maybe you could get something to mess around with – and mess will be the operative word – this afternoon toward dark.
Outlook for tomorrow appears to be approximately the same. And the rest of the week, according to the models isn’t any better for Sydneysiders. It’s spring… what can ya do?
Lovely morning for Saturday in Sydney, but the surf prospects are not too flash. If you’re extra keen, you might be able to extract a knee to waist high set wave at a south facing spot. The swell out at sea is coming from the south at about 10 seconds apart on average. But because it’s only a metre or so, I’m not exceptionally hopeful. Dee Why looks pretty close to flat for instance and I’d be surprised if it was dramatically bigger elsewhere.
Outlook for the next little while is not encouraging. The Bureau says we should start to see a few showers toward evening and more of the same tomorrow. That would be neither here nor there if we had some waves to play with, but from the look of the models, we’re in for a spell of flatness through the middle of the week.
Happily those same models are still showing a broad area of easterly fetch to the NE of NZ that will, with luck actually come to pass. Should it do so, we could be looking at a fun size east swell developing from about Thursday morning. Good to have something to pin one’s hopes upon…
Go well with your day!
ps: want to hear my surf report and forecast chat from this morning on ABC 702? Click here!
Pretty sky above South Head
Classic Hawkesbury river fog splashes over Lion Island around 0915.