Hello Friends,

Well, back from the Surfrider conference in Margaret River to dear old Sydney and things seem to be much as I left them on Friday – namely weak and tiny. The MHL buoy is showing a metre of 6sec period south swell out at sea. In on the beach at Dee Why there’s a bit of froth on along the rocks at the point and the odd sub knee high scraps of dribble along the beach.

The wind is set to be out of the south early and then to swing to the SE later. Not a good thing where our beaches are concerned. But worse, the swell outlook is currently for no significant change. This morning’s run of the wave models does not a happy picture make. Energy is coming across from the southern ocean, but it’s just staying away from our swell window. And sadly, these conditions look like lasting for at least another week.

Pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year I guess. So, what can you do, but keep the powder dry and wait for the magic days to return. Go well!

Weather Situation
A persistent high pressure system lies over the Tasman Sea. A weakening cold front will bring a southerly change to the Mid North Coast today, but is not expected to reach the Queensland border. Northeasterly winds will become reestablished along the coast under the influence of the high, before another south to southeasterly change develops along the southern half of the coast during Wednesday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 10 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly up to 15 knots around midday then becoming east to northeasterly during the afternoon and increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres tending southerly 0.5 metres late this evening.
Wednesday 16 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 5 to 15 knots ahead of a south to southwesterly change up to 25 knots during the morning then tending south to southeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 0.5 metres tending easterly about 1 metre from the morning.
Weather
The chance of

thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Thursday 17 November
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly up to 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.

Afternoon update:
Well, the models were right… I couldn’t see it this morning, but a pulse did fill in (along with an onshore, sadly) and when I went by Curly mid-arvo there were a few okay size sets. However, the onshore was making it quite junky, there were long waits for catchable ones, and they seemed kinda weak.

Here’s a shot I grabbed…

(this morning I wrote)
Hello Friends,

Looking very small at Dee Why this morning. There’s only a metre of short period south windswell showing on the MHL buoy off Sydney at the moment. And given the data from the other buoys up and down the coast, I’m not hopeful of any immediate improvement. The models are suggesting a slight improvement around lunchtime, but I can’t see where it’d come from myself.

Outlook for the next couple days is for continued flatness, so put in a few unexpected appearances if you can. With luck those karma points will come in handy later in the week.

Latest run of the wave prediction models continues to show a steady upward ramp in our possibilities from Tuesday. If they’re right, we could see some waist high stuff from the east for Tuesday afternoon and then on Wednesday we could be seeing some head high plus south swell. But, if we’re lucky, that will just be prelude to some serious juice come next weekend. There is some serious fetch showing on the models for Fri-Sat… sure hope those predictions play out because if they do, there could be some sizable, long period south swell lighting up the joint…

Go well with your Saturday!

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds: Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Winds becoming light later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around midday. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre tending southerly about 1.5 metres from the late morning.
Forecast for Sunday

Winds: West to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly around midday then becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Monday

Winds: Northwesterly 10 to 20 knots tending westerly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending west to northwesterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre tending northeasterly from midday.

Hello Friends,

Election eve and it’s micro. Worse, the models continue to call for minor to flat conditions for the next week – at least.

Has spring sprung on us a little early?

There are still big low pressure systems in the southern ocean but they’re being resolutely bounced away from us by the persistent high pressure systems that dominate our weather this time of year.

The latest data from the MHL buoy off Sydney is showing about a metre of 6 second period south windswell. If you can find some way to extract a wave or two from such a paltry offering, my hat’s off to you!

An inspection of the WAMs shows there is a slight chance of a just barely surfable south bump around lunchtime on Sunday. But right now, that’s pretty much it for the Sydney region (and the rest of the east coast) as far as I can tell.

Have yourself a top old Friday and get up to some good where you can!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Friday until midnight: Wind: Westerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots around midday then increasing to 20 to 30 knots later in the evening.Sea: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres during the morning.Swell: Easterly 0.5 metres tending southeasterly from midday.
Saturday: Wind: Westerly 20 to 25 knots.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres.Swell: Southerly 0.5 metres.
Sunday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending northeast to northwesterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon.

Hello Friends

Seems as that we have another day of microness in Sydney. The MHL buoy is showing about a metre from the south at around 6 seconds apart – much the same as it’s been for the last few days. So another day of nothing much in the way of wave options. Go for a fitness paddle or a swim or snorkle eh? Should be fine, sunny and 25 so it’ll be a good day to get outdoors even if surfing’s not happening.

From the leatest run of the models, it looks as though there might possibly be a little something around from the NE on New Year’s Day, but I think if there is, it’ll be marginal waist high stuff for the most part. At the outer limit of the prediction range, some interpretations of the data are showing a small south pulse around Sunday. The most optimistic of these reckons shoulder high is a possibility for south spots. We can hope I guess!

Anyway, enjoy the day and go well with your plans.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 10/15 knots tending E/NE in the afternoon.Sea: about 1 metre.Swell: E/SE about 1.5 metres.
Thursday: Wind: N/NE 10/15 knots freshening to 15/20 knots in the afternoon and reaching 20/25 knots later. Sea: about 1 metre rising to 1.5 to 2 metres in the afternoon. Swell: E about 1 metre.
Friday: Wind: NW/NE 10/20 knots.

Not much of anything showing at Dee Why this morning.

Hello Friends,

Not much of anything showing at Dee Why this morning. Wind went around to the SSW earlier and the weak windswell seems to have tracked around to south as well.

The models are suggesting that we should see a slight improvement (ie, it might get surfable) over the next day or two. But at this stage it looks like it will only be the difference between flat and very marginal.

Here’s hoping there’ll be a little something for us when the heat hits tomorrow.

Your best bet for a wave today is going to be at spots with south exposure. Of course it’ll be onshore where it’s biggest.

Tomorrow the wind will be around to the NW, so my hunch is that the best locations will be the more east exposed spots. If we see stuff into the waist high range, I’ll be stoked.

By Monday, the heat should be gone as a new south change rolls up the coast. That of course will mean short period south windswell. The models are showing 2-3 metres at 6-7 sec, so figure chest to head high plus at exposed spots (on sets) if we’re lucky. Again, it’ll be biggest where the onshores are strongest and because of the short period, you probably can’t expect to find much in the protected south corners.

Tides: H @1040, L@ 1732
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 20/25 knots easing to 10/15 knots during the morning, then tending SE/NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon.Sea: 2 to 2.5 metres abating about 1 metre.Swell: NE 1 to 2 metres. Possible afternoon thunderstorms.
Sunday: Wind: NW/NE 20/30 knots. Late S change 20/30 knots. Sea: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: NE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Monday: Wind: S/SE 15/25 knots.