Hello Friends,

Glassy and sunny start to the last Monday of November 2011. But a very high tide at 1010 or so plus only a metre of 8 second period SE wind swell resulted in tiny waves for early risers. I watched several SUP riders motoring back and forth at the Dee Why end of the beach whilst waiting to get a picture. They didn’t pick up any waves, so I’m thinking it’s not going to be easy to find yourself something surfable under the circumstances.

This morning’s run of the swell model interpretations are all pointing to another working week of small to flat conditions. There seems to be some hope for a bump into the waist to chest high range toward next weekend though…

Have yourself a good one and go well with your day.

Weather Situation
Warmer northerly winds will become established along most of the coast today as a high pressure system moves from eastern New South Wales to the Tasman Sea, although a shallow trough of low pressure may bring a brief southerly change to the far south coast late in the day. A frontal system, currently developing to the south of Western Australia, is expected to intensify during Tuesday as it approaches. This front is forecast to cross the New South Wales coast later Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a cooler southerly change.
Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming northeasterly up to 15 knots around midday then increasing to 15 to 20 knots by evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres tending easterly 1 metre later.
Tuesday 29 November
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots around dawn then becoming northeasterly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Wednesday 30 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

Foggy early, but it cleared away pretty quickly as the sun came up. I hadn’t expected to see much of interest this morning after looking at the indicators late last night. But Huey smiled on the early risers and although the SE windswell is only about a metre out at sea and is plugging along at a pretty standard 8 seconds apart, there were a few clean and glassy waist high peaks here and there. The waits were long between the sets and the incoming tide was going to be an issue soon, but if you’d made the effort there were a few small rewards to be had.

Saturday’s first high tide was at 0945 and the low will be along at 1610.

I’d say as that tide fills in it will knock the surf prospects about and by the time it runs back out again, the NE wind is set to be an issue. Because it’s due to get into the 20-30 kt range, there might possibly be some junky but surfable options in the semi-protected north corners.

Sunday morning might produce a few possibilities as the windswell gets more east and picks up a touch.

Have yourself a terrific Saturday!

Weather Situation
A high near New Zealand extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast, and to the south of Tasmania while a broad low pressure trough lies over the western border with a low south of Adelaide. The trough will move eastwards on Saturday with the low likely to move south of Tasmania followed by a vigorous cold front expected to arrive on the South Coast on Sunday and to extend to the far north coast by Monday afternoon.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds: Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots around midday then becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending north to northeasterly up to 25 knots later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres during the afternoon then increasing to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Sunday
Winds: North to northwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly around midday. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly about 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Monday
Winds: Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots increasing southerly 20 to 30 knots during the morning then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

This morning’s proceedings in the Sydney region will be dominated by a high tide at about 1000. Wind wasn’t a factor early, but by lunch we should have a standard issue NE sea breeze which will then build into the 15-20 kt range. There’s not much windswell around this morning, but it’s not quite flat. Out at sea the MHL buoy is showing a metre from the SE at around the 8 second mark. At Dee Why there are sets into the waist high range, but for the most part it’s smaller than that.

From the look of the forecast models this morning, we’re not in for any significant improvement to surf prospects today. For the longer term outlook, I’m lining up with the Goat’s latest thoughts on that front.

Go well one and all and stay cool!

TIDES: H @1000, L @1625

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the central Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast while a broad trough is over NSW . On Sunday a cold front is expected to bring a significant change along much of the coast, extending to the Queensland border on Monday. A high in the Bight follows the front.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds: Light winds tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots during the morning then becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday. Winds increasing to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Northeasterly about 1.5 metres tending southerly 0.5 metres late this evening.

Forecast for Saturday
Winds: North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots around dawn then tending northeasterly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending north to northeasterly up to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southeasterly 0.5 metres tending northeasterly about 1.5 metres from the morning.

Forecast for Sunday
Winds: North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots becoming northwesterly 10 to 20 knots during the morning then tending southwesterly up to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning then increasing to 3 metres during the evening. Swell: Northeasterly about 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms from the morning until late afternoon.

Hello Friends,

An unusual combination of NW wind and rain this morning in Sydney. There’s a south change due later today, so if you don’t mind the gloomy skies and a lacklustre but not entirely hopeless little south east wind swell, you’ll probably be able to find yourself a plausible reason to get in the water. I think I might just keep an eye on the cricket today and leave it to the keen.

Might check in with a few thoughts on the outlook later…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales mid-north coast, while a trough lies offshore to the north. The high will continue drifting towards New Zealand on Sunday, allowing a low pressure trough and associated cold front to bring a gusty southerly change to southern and central parts of the New South Wales coast. This change will continue to the north coast during Monday, with conditions easing by Tuesday as the next high moves over the region from the west.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Northeast to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots ahead of a 20 to 30 knots southerly change in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres rising to 2 to 3 metres with the change. Swell: Southeasterly 1.5 metres tending easterly 1 metre from the morning. Scattered thunderstorms.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots at times. Seas: Up to 3 metres. Swell: Southeasterly 1.5 metres tending southerly late in the evening. The chance of thunderstorms early in the morning, mainly offshore.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: Southerly 15 to 25 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending east to northeasterly during the evening. Seas: 2 to 3 metres decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.

Hello Friends,

Quick little arvo update. Found myself around at Curly after a meeting and whadya know… good thing I chucked the board in the car. Nothing spectacular really, but there were a few little soft things coming in. I had the water camera along so I grabbed a snap to share. Sets were around the chest high range and it was reasonably consistent. A light onshore was adding a little touch of extra special ordinaryness to proceedings, but really it wasn’t a big deal. Water is cool, clear and at Curly anyway, bluey free for now. Saw a few familiar faces in the water too, which is always a good thing don’tcha think?

Swell’s still the same as this morning, ie SE, 1 metre at 8/9s.

Earlier I wrote:
Nice to see the odd sunny break this morning. And the wind swell looks as though it might have pushed up a touch. According to the latest data from the Sydney MHL buoy, the average size is still around the metre mark, but the direction has moved more to the SE and the period has crept up to 8 seconds. It’s not much, but I’m guessing if you had a mal and some time this morning, you might be able to find something slightly amusing at places with maximum exposure to the energy. The wind forecast is favourable as well, calling as it does for Sydney to have light northerlies this morning ahead of an afternoon swing to the NE.

Friday is shaping up to be showery and southerly from early. The models are calling for the wind swell to push up into the two metre plus range toward midday but it’ll be accompanied by 20-25 kts of southerly. So, maybe there will be a little something getting into the protected south corners – particularly around lunch time.

Your correspondent will be getting into full conference mode as Surfrider’s We Love Waves kicks off on Friday evening when we’re having a welcome drinks evening for pre-registrants. Saturday’s program is going to set a cracking pace with heaps of speakers covering a wide range of topics. And then Saturday evening’s 30th birthday of the Thruster should be a heap of fun (my hunch is that we’ll be shutting the doors pretty early on that one – which won’t be a problem for registered delegates because they automatically get in).

Have yourself a good one!

Tides: H @0540 L @1200

Weather Situation from the BoM

A weak low pressure trough over eastern New South Wales will move northeast during Thursday as a cold front crosses the southern Tasman Sea. A high pressure system will approach from the west on Friday extending a ridge to the north coast and another trough will develop over the northeastern inland. The high pressure ridge is expected to strengthen along NSW coast over the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds: Northerly and light tending north to northeasterly up to 10 knots around midday then increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Friday

Winds: Northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending southerly up to 30 knots around dawn then becoming 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning then increasing to 3 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Saturday

Winds: Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the evening. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the morning. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

As foretold by the models, surf prospects have diminished overnight from marginal to very marginal. Swell direction is SE but it’s only a metre or so out at sea and the power setting has drifted down to a weak 8 seconds or so. There really doesn’t seem to be much of anything showing at Dee Why, nor along the beach north from there toward No Mans.

There could be a few a little waist high sets to be found at more optimally exposed spots, so if you have time for a look around and you’re not too demanding, some small amusement may be waiting for you to find it.

Latest outlook for the week ahead is for more or less of the same through to around Saturday when it currently looks as though we might possibly get another south pulse. At least one of the riffs on the WAMs is showing quite long period (as in 15+sec) energy on the cards. Here’s hoping!

Have yourself a great day and go well with your plans.

TIDES: H @1210, L @1840
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: Northerly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday then tending northerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening.Sea: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre.
Wednesday: Wind: Northwesterly 10 to 20 knots tending west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening.Sea: Up to 1.5 metres.Swell: Easterly about 1 metre.
Thursday: Wind: South to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending southeasterly up to 10 knots during the morning then tending southerly up to 15 knots during the evening.