We all know there are sharks in the ocean. And statistically you’re more likely to get run over, than being attacked by a shark. So while the risk is there, it’s pretty small. We all know that. Charles and Andrew Lindop knew that when they went for an early surf last Saturday at North Avalon. Andrew became the third shark attack victim in Sydney in three weeks.
Andrew is doing well in Royal North Shore Hospital at this stage. Charles and Louise have been overwhelmed by the support offered by everyone in the surf club and the Avalon community. It has been a great comfort for them to know so many people are thinking of Andrew.
Well done to Charles, who went to his son’s aid (as any father would) despite the shark’s presence, and knew what to do as a result of his surf lifesaving training. Well done also to local surfers Harrison Vann and Dylan Cram who were first on the scene to help and call for an ambulance. And to two of Charles’ fellow gold medallion lifesavers, Mike Stanley-Jones and Volker Klemm, who were getting ready for an early surf when they saw the emergency. They grabbed the oxygen supply, leapt into the 4WD and raced along the beach. All their actions made sure that Andrew had the best possible attention after the attack.
A couple of other statistics to keep in mind:
1. Three shark attacks in Sydney in three weeks is unprecedented. There’s been no attack at Bondi for 60 years.
2. Before last Sunday, there had never been a recorded shark attack at Avalon Beach.
Why these attacks at these places now (Bondi and North Avalon are like an extension of people’s backyards – there’s a high school acrooss the raod from North Av – kids have surfed before and after school for decades) …and what type of sharks?
Sympathies to the navy diver, and to the surfer at Bondi – who’ve both lost limbs as a result of their attacks by a harbour Bull Shark, and a Great White.
Despite these attacks, we should not be afraid to go back in the water – not at Bondi or Avalon, or at any other place. But we should take rational account of present circumstances and exercise caution.
We know that the surf in both recent attacks, which took place in the early morning and late evening, was pretty crappy, with fresh onshore wind making the surface choppy/ a mess, grey skies, poor water visibility. When I’ve been surfing and seen sharks most active, it has been in similar conditions. Other times they’ve just swum under me. So maybe resist the urge “to get wet” when conditions are like that – when the surf’s no good / no one else is out… Is it worth it?
There have also been plenty of baitfish around. TG’s rough “Baitfish Boats On The Harbour Index”: (South Head to Bradley’s): Usually 2 or 3 each day; Recent weeks – average around 20; This week: Monday – 20; Tuesday – 24; Wednesday: 3.
Mike Stanley Jones gave some good advice on ABC 702 for those wondering if they should get in the water:
“Don’t be scared, use your common sense, dodge that morning and afternoon, especially while there are so many bait fish around, and the murky water.” “And go with somebody, always go with somebody – safety in numbers.” “Hopefully when the bait fish move on, so will the sharks.”
Add to that – if you’re a swimmer, swim at the patrolled area on a beach.
Take notice of any warnings. When the beach is closed, people are warned – people who enter the water do so at their own risk.
How effective are the nets?
“Vic Peddemors, a shark biologist with the NSW Department of Primary
Industries, said shark attacks would be far more common in NSW without
the netting program.”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24898152-5005941,00.html
(Nobody claims that the nets are 100 per cent effective).
Now the surf forecast:
Surf forecast issued Wednesday 4 March 2009: Seven day outlook for Sydney:
Varied weather… variable surf…. with some onshore winds to make the surface choppy at times… and a chance of showers at times to make grey skies and murky water (!). But maybe the baitfish have moved on ?? Keep your eyes open.
Thursday: about 2 metres at places that like dead South swell.
Friday: ditto.
Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range dead South.
Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East, East South East/East North East.
Monday: 1-2 metre range East North East/East.
Tuesday: 1-2 metre range East South East.
Wednesday: about the 1 metre mark East North East.
Water temp’s around 23.
Weather from The Bureau:
Forecast for Wednesday evening
Fine. Light to moderate southwest winds.
Precis: Fine.
Forecast for Thursday
Fine. Sunny. Light to moderate southwest winds, turning southeasterly later in the day.
Precis: Fine. Sunny.
City: Min: 16 Max: 23 Parramatta: Min: 13 Max: 25
Terrey Hills: Min: 13 Max: 23 Penrith: Min: 13 Max: 26
Liverpool: Min: 13 Max: 25 Richmond: Min: 13 Max: 26
UV Alert: 9:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]
Friday Fine. Sunny.
City: Min: 15 Max: 24
West: Min: 10 Max: 27
Saturday Fine. Mostly sunny.
City: Min: 17 Max: 25
West: Min: 13 Max: 29
Sunday Chance showers.
City: Min: 19 Max: 25
West: Min: 16 Max: 27
Monday Chance showers.
City: Min: 20 Max: 25
West: Min: 17 Max: 27
Tuesday Showers.
City: Min: 21 Max: 23
West: Min: 19 Max: 25
Wednesday Showers.
City: Min: 21 Max: 23
West: Min: 19 Max: 25
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: S/SW 18/23 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots later chiefly offshore.Sea: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: E/NE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Thursday: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots, easing later.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, abating 1 to 2 metres later. Swell: S 2 to 3 metres.
Friday: Wind: SE/NE 10/20 knots.
Saturday: Wind: E/NE 5/15 knots.
