Hello Friends,
Raining widely and steadily as Sunday got started, so no pictures from me for awhile yet. The Bureau is expecting an East Coast Low to start forming up as the day goes along, so the current E-ENE wind will increase from the 20 or so knots at 0800 to 20-30 later. Not too inviting a prospect for surfin’
The MHL buoy was detecting a broad area of short period NE to E windswell in the two metre range plus around a metre of 10+ second SSE swell. Scanning a few of the webcams, it looks pretty ordinary. Lumpy and bumpy and sloppy with wave faces in the waist to chest plus range. The steady rain overnight can’t be helping the water quality either.
The Bureau is expecting the swell to build as the day goes along and to be easterly 2-3 metres for the next 24 hours or so. Tomorrow’s wind outlook is for NW early, shifting S-SW later at 20-25 kts. So there could be a few possibilities around the place if we’re lucky.
This morning’s swell modelling is projecting a peak in the energy on Tuesday but with reasonable size lasting through to as late as Friday. The problem’s going to be the wind. The models are generally predicting that it’ll be pretty strong until around Friday. The big question is around the direction. Some are saying midweek could see SW’ly, but others are calling for straight southerly.
All very interesting and as always, we’ll be keeping an eye on it for you.
Have a top old Sunday everyone!
Weather Situation
A low over northwest NSW is expected to weaken today. A second, complex low pressure system is expected to develop off the NSW north coast this morning, then move south to lie close to the central or southern coast tonight. The low is likely to move north then northeast during Monday. Strong to gale-force winds are expected to affect the NSW coast from early Sunday morning through Monday, more likely and stronger for southern and central parts of the coast. Uncertainty remains as to the position and strength of the East Coast Low, and hence to the timing and extent coastal waters areas are to be affected. The low is expected to move slowly away to the east during Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- East to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the afternoon, then shifting west to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots later in the afternoon.
- Seas
- 2 to 3 metres.
- 1st Swell
- Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
- 2nd Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre.
- Weather
- The chance of thunderstorms from early this afternoon.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 18 August
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots in the morning then increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 40 knots during the afternoon and evening.
- Seas
- 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.
- Swell
- Easterly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres later in the evening.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 19 August
- Winds
- Southerly 25 to 30 knots.
- Seas
- 2.5 to 3 metres.
- Swell
- Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
