Hello Friends,
At 0930 on the last Friday of 2023 the wind was just stirring from the south and the ocean at Dee Why was smooth and flat to the horizon. At 0700 the MHL buoy was detecting a metre of 9-second dead south swell, so there were very tiny, just barely catchable little ripples coming into the beach just north of the club. Tide was coming into the 1.8m high at 1035 when I took the picture, so, as happens when the swell’s this tiny and the tide’s high, the height of the dunes and vegetation are just enough to hide a view of anyone catching the tiny bumps right on the shore.
The grey skies confirm the Bureau’s prediction of possible late storms and the odd shower or two today. And from the look of the long range forecast, it’s going to be cloudy well into week one of 2024.
Surf prospects are not looking too fabulous for the next few days. Broadly speaking it seems we’re in for mostly grey skies and onshores plus small to tiny, short-period local wind swell. It’s right out there on the limit of the forecast range, but the GFS model was predicting a SE pulse for next weekend. The numbers are indicating 2+ metre waves… but, with 20-30 kts of south wind and yet more rain. Harrumph.
Never mind, the surf stars will align again one day.
Go well everyone!
Weather Situation
A weak ridge develops over New South Wales in the wake of the recent low, which has now moved into the Tasman Sea. An inland trough deepens over inland New South Wales during today then contracts to the northeast of the state over the weekend, while another ridge builds from the southwest.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
- Winds
- East to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly in the late evening.
- Seas
- Below 1 metre.
- Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe.
Saturday 30 December
- Winds
- Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 15 to 20 knots in the morning then tending southeasterly in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
- Seas
- Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
- Swell
- Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 31 December
- Winds
- South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
- Seas
- 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
- Swell
- Southerly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Cloudy.
