Posts in Goat’s Forecast

The Goat’s Surf Forecast and More

Posted on September 24th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast and More

Surf forecast issued Thursday 24 September 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Surf outlook

We’ve had a lot of westerly winds lately….pretty much unrelenting..

And the short term outlook is…

Yes.. pretty much more of the same for the next coupla days, but then there might be a little surf when the westerlies ease off.

Some lines were starting to show at places open to the South, today.

Friday: might be a little something, say around 1ish metres at the right tide, at places open to dead South… and not much elsewhere

Saturday: not expecting much at first, maybe 1ish at dead South spots later

Sunday: starting to come up gradually in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places with wind behind it

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: ditto South East

Thursday: ditto more Eastish.

But wait, there’s more

This weekend is the start of the school holidays, and the start of the “swimming season”.. ie the flags go up to show the safe areas to swim.

With people’s thoughts turning more to the beach, and with families and others taking holidays, there’ll be plenty of opportunities to spread the virus (you know the one) around Sydney, the rest of the State and elsewhere… unless people follow the official health advice… Which of course you already know, unless you’re a Complete Boofhead.

Sick of hearing about it?  Hey… Guess what!!!!  We’re doing great here right now, but the point is, it only takes one person.  You’ve got the examples of Europe and the US and Victoria, of what can happen when people relax their guard a little too much.  It hasn’t gone away, and there’s no excuse for ignorance at the beach or elsewhere. There’s this thing called the internet… You’re on it right now!

To help us all stay safe over Summer,  local governments have calculated in advance, the maximum Covid safe beach crowds for individual Sydney beaches… you know, for them to decide if a beach needs to be closed for public health reasons.

Northern Beaches Council info, with crowd numbers they’ve calculated for individual beaches, is here…

https://www.northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/general-information/summer-action-plan-outdoor-public-spaces

Go to “Helpful Documents” (could be even more helpful if it were easier to find!)

Surf lifesavers will not be enforcing public health regulations.

That will be the job Council Rangers and the Police if necessary.

But hey, let’s not make any of it necessary…

TG’s Simple Tips for everyone this summer

  1. If you’re driving to the beach and you’re in a line of traffic… then turn around and go somewhere else!
  2. If you get to the beach and it looks crowded… then go somewhere else!
  3. Relax.. Stay Safe… and Have Fun!!

TG.

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Sep 24 05:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Sep 24 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.859,151.200,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19..might still feel a bit fresh if you want a swim without having a heart attack

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 21
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Sunny. Sydney 21
Sunny. Penrith 22
Sunny. Liverpool 22
Sunny. Terrey Hills 20
Sunny. Richmond 21
Sunny. Parramatta 22
Mostly sunny. Campbelltown 21
Sunny. Bondi 20

Friday 25 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 24
Shower or two. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then turning west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Saturday 26 September

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Sunday 27 September

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h tending southeast to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Monday 28 September

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Tuesday 29 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 30 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

 


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on September 17th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 September 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There’s a Sydney Southerly Buster for you…

3pm 32 degrees and low humidity 28% light N wind,

5pm 18 degrees and 78% and strong S wind.

If you were lucky enough to get to the beach today… and were at the right place at the right tide, there were some nice cruisey waves around.

There are so many factors and variables to consider, it’s a wonder that those who pick it aren’t all rocket scientists!

So will all that wind that’s blowing around outside now do some good??? you ask.

For all its huffing and puffing, the general answer is:

Not really.

If you don’t set your expectations too high, you shouldn’t be disappointed, and

who knows, you might even be pleasantly surprised after a few days.. at the right tide.. and right places>>>

Friday: in the low end of the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South… nothing much elsewhere

Saturday: ditto, a bit more South East

Sunday: ditto and North East

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East

Tuesday: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range North East

Wednesday: around 1 metre or less North East

Thursday: Ditto

Have fun.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Sep 17 06:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Sep 17 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is now around 18

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Possible shower. Gusty change.
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers this evening. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h reaching 45 to 55 km/h along the coastal fringe.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Friday 18 September

Summary
Min 14
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h tending southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible shower. Sydney 14 20
Shower or two. Penrith 12 20
Shower or two. Liverpool 13 20
Shower or two. Terrey Hills 14 19
Shower or two. Richmond 12 20
Shower or two. Parramatta 13 20
Shower or two. Campbelltown 10 20
Possible shower. Bondi 16 19

Saturday 19 September

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Sunday 20 September

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Monday 21 September

Summary
Min 15
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the morning. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 22 September

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h.

Wednesday 23 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 24
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 24 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on September 10th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 10 September 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Sigh.. the trouble I have to go to…

I told TG it was time to do the forecast and he just whinged>>>

“It’s too cold… Don’t feel like it…. Who’d be surfing now anyway? It feels like Winter has returned!”

He just  rolled over..

I told him he had to, because people were relying on him.

He then challenged me to name names… So I did.   Three or four at least, but he can’t count.

He started to whine again… he’s so immature.

So I asked, would he like me to take him back to where I found him?? >>>

>>>Floating in the surf after an overflow malfunction at the Warriewood sewerage treatment plant???!>>>

That woke him up … Nothing like incentivisation.

I gotta admit, current conditions and the outlook ahead don’t look very appealing to me either, with 17 degree water,  various onshore winds to chop the surf and chill the air temp, and smallish surf~~~~ But, for the keen ones ~~~~~~~

Friday: low end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Saturday: ditto East

Sunday: ditto North East

Monday: 1 metre or less East

Tuesday: low end of the 1-2 metre range South/South East

Wednesday: ditto South

Thursday: ditto ditto, repeato

If you’ve gotta go in just to get wet, best not do it at dawn or dusk, or when the water’s windchopped to confuse the sea creatures.

Surf with a mate and keep your eyes open… The whales have started coming back down the coast up north, and their  PITB camp followers won’t be far behind.

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Sep 10 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Sep 10 07:30:00 2020

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is only 17 ish

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Friday 11 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Possible early fog patches in the west. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Partly cloudy. Sydney 12 20
Partly cloudy. Penrith 8 21
Partly cloudy. Liverpool 9 20
Partly cloudy. Terrey Hills 11 18
Partly cloudy. Richmond 8 20
Partly cloudy. Parramatta 9 20
Partly cloudy. Campbelltown 6 20
Partly cloudy. Bondi 14 19

Saturday 12 September

Summary
Min 10
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Early fog patches, mainly in the west. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Sunday 13 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Possible early fog patches in the west. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Monday 14 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Tuesday 15 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower, most likely later in the day. Light winds.

Wednesday 16 September

Summary
Min 13
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 17 September

Summary
Min 14
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on September 3rd, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 3 September 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Time flies when you’re having fun! and here it is September already.

Surf?? No, not really much happening over the next few days, unless you’re lucky enough to get a small mal wave at the right tides.

But by now you’re ready to roll with the punches, take it as it comes, be flexible, and know that it is what it is… And the water’s cold!  Good on you!

Friday: around 1ish metres from North East, with rideable waves dependent on the tide

Saturday: 1ish metres or less North East

Sunday: around 1ish metres North East

Monday: 1 metre or less Eastish

Tuesday: dittoish.. no point trying to be precise in these conditions

Wednesday: leftover small North East windswell at first before it might start coming up into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places, to be blown out by the wind behind it…yayy

Thursday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range , maybe 2 metres at places that like dead South swell, with S wind.

TG had some hayfever but did what the health authorities say and got tested, just to be sure, to be sure. All good…

Getting tested if you’re not sure, is all the go! It’s free. Don’t miss out!!

And wear a mask in crowded places… It’s not hard and it’s not rocket science.

Stay well. Stay Safe. Just keep smiling. At least the weather looks nice for some days.

We haven’t had a musical surf forecast for a while…  so thump along with this!!!

Guaranteed to make you feel good 🙂

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Sep  3 06:30:00 2020

Winds

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a chilly 17… chilly, judging by the young fit bloke who dived in and dived straight out without swimming a stroke

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Something cool

Have a look at the Continental shelf and how it drops off around the coast – follow it down to the Great Australian Bight… How impressive does that look///

https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Sydney+NSW/@-33.8469756,150.3714537,134434m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x6b129838f39a743f:0x3017d681632a850!8m2!3d-33.8688197!4d151.2092955?hl=en&authuser=0

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Friday 4 September

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Shower or two. Sydney 15 23
Shower or two. Penrith 13 24
Shower or two. Liverpool 13 23
Shower or two. Terrey Hills 15 21
Shower or two. Richmond 13 23
Shower or two. Parramatta 14 23
Shower or two. Campbelltown 11 23
Shower or two. Bondi 17 21

Saturday 5 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 21
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the early morning. Sunny day. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Sunday 6 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Monday 7 September

Summary
Min 14
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day then tending northerly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 8 September

Summary
Min 13
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower later in the day. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h.

Wednesday 9 September

Summary
Min 13
Max 19
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Thursday 10 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 27th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 27 August 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney

How was that weather today??? Freezing this morning (7 degrees at 7am with an apparent temp of 3) then 22 and hot at 2 pm… TG didn’t know if he was hot on the inside/ cold on the outside, or vice versa.

Anyhoo, variety is the spice of life, and you’ll get some spice from the surf this week. (is that possible? you’re wondering)

TG has read how students are doing it tough this year with everything else that’s going on, especially those studying for the HSC.  TG feels for them. He’s done one or two tests in his life too… jump this fence… eat this hat etc etc.

So to help the kids out, he’s provided some sample exam questions and answers scattered in the forecast. That way you learn to keep some balance in your life … you know… study, play, study,… – just make sure you keep alternating. There are some tricky questions here, but hey… don’t worry if you get some wrong.. Just do your best. Some of you older kids may have even seen them before, so don’t give the answers away.

Friday:

Surf: Smallish to start – say around 1 metre or so at places that are open to the South, then coming up through the day to around 2ish metres, but messy and pushed along by the S wind.

Sample Q: Briefly explain what hard water is…

Saturday:

Surf: Well that was a short lived uptick in the surf…back to around 1ish – 1+ metres only at dead South spots.

A: Ice.

Are you coping with the format so far??

Sunday:

Surf: Around 1ish metres or less from South East

Q and A: To give you a little break, here’s the next question and answer…

Monday:

Surf: Ditto East/ North East

Q: Name one of the early Romans’ greatest achievements…

Tuesday:

Surf: Chopping and changing again.. little uptick to 1 – 1+ metres but only at dead South places

A: Learning to speak Latin.

Wednesday:

Surf: dittoish South East

Q: Don is driving at 2 metres per second and the speed limit is 60 kph. Is Don speeding?

Thursday:

Surf: similar

A: Don could find out by checking his speedometer.

PS: bonus marks if you said, Don would never exceed the speed limit.

I think that’s enough hard work for today..

Take a break, have the weekend off, surf if you can, and laugh a lot.

TG.

Up in the Air

On a High High High generally means nice weather and temps

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 27 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 27 05:30:00 2020

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.764/150.924?-34.283,150.924,8,m:cISakmH

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18 offshore.  I’ve had some people tell me it’s a nice temp inshore and others say it’s freezing… guess it depends where you are and what currents are swirling around your tootsies

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast updated at 10:19 am EST on Thursday 27 August 2020.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 22
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Sunny. Sydney 22
Sunny. Penrith 23
Sunny. Liverpool 22
Sunny. Terrey Hills 21
Sunny. Richmond 23
Sunny. Parramatta 22
Sunny. Campbelltown 22
Sunny. Bondi 20

Friday 28 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Saturday 29 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 21
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning fog in the west. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 30 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 25
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Monday 31 August

Summary
Min 13
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southwesterly during the day.

Tuesday 1 September

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 2 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning

 


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 20th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 20 August 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Ahh The Westerly Winds of August …  Nature’s harbingers telling those of us who prefer warmer weather that Spring can’t be far away.

They can clear the air, blow dust up your nose, cause a bit of damage here and there, and sometimes after a few days of huffing and puffing across the Bight, bring up some swell from way down south>>>

Will they this time??>>

Well that depends on how a Low develops over the weekend, and where it locates itself… Apparently, it’s still deciding.

But based on what it’s current intentions look like to TG, the surf outlook could be something like this>>>

Friday: less than 1 metre or flat

Saturday: less than 1 metre or flat, or maybe starting to show less than 1 metre at places open to the South

Sunday: Depending on how the Low tracks, it could be starting to show 1 – 1+ metres at dead South places

Monday: Ditto the first bit, into the 1-2 metreish range dead South

Tuesday:  1-2 metre range, 2+ metres maybe South East, but with wind

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range South East

Thursday: Ditto

Wouldn’t it be nice if it could just blow that silly virus out to sea with it…

In the meantime I’m really proud of you all washing your hands regularly, staying 1.5 m apart where possible, wearing masks where it’s not, and not whinging too much. Colds and flu stats are way down on what they would normally be, I see.

Keep up the good work!

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 20 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 20 04:30:00 2020

Winds… it’s windy

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-33.381,151.475,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp… The MHL Waverider buoy offshore from Long Reef is reading around 18… Reliable sources have told me that inshore it’s Cold (a technical term).

image

Tides..still going up and down

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 19
Windy. Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Windy. Sunny. Sydney 19
Windy. Sunny. Penrith 18
Windy. Sunny. Liverpool 18
Windy. Sunny. Terrey Hills 17
Windy. Sunny. Richmond 18
Windy. Sunny. Parramatta 18
Windy. Sunny. Campbelltown 17
Windy. Sunny. Bondi 18

Friday 21 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Partly cloudy. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a brief shower. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 10:20 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 22 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 16
Windy. Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 23 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 24 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 25 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the day.

Wednesday 26 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 13th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 13 August 2929: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Some Happy News! for those who are working from home, working three or four day weeks, not working, retired, going to school, uni, tafe etc. >>>

Some lovely conditions coming up on some days… except when they’re not. That’s a lot of happy people! I’m thinkin’.

I said lovely conditions… not necessarily lovely waves.

You can’t always get what you want.

But there will be some nice little waves from time to time at the right tides and right places, for those who have the right attitudes 🙂

Friday: around 1ish metres at places that get dead South swell, but with an occasional fading little leftover pulse from time to time from the East South East

Saturday: around 1ish metres dead South, then coming up a little with the wind behind it

Sunday: coming up in the 1-2 metre range but only at Dead South friendly places

Monday: around 1- 1+ metres dead South

Tuesday: around 1-1+ metres Eastish

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: dittoish

Take care in and out of the water. Have Fun!

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 13 07:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 13 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.764/150.924?-34.283,150.924,8,m:cISakmH

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 17 – 18 inshore… warmer offshore, a bit further than you can paddle.

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Clear. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:20 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Friday 14 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 21
Late rain.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of fog in the early morning, mainly in the west. High (80%) chance of rain in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Late rain. Sydney 11 21
Early fog. Rain later. Penrith 7 21
Early fog. Late rain. Liverpool 7 21
Late rain. Terrey Hills 9 20
Early fog. Rain later. Richmond 6 21
Early fog. Late rain. Parramatta 8 21
Early fog. Late rain. Campbelltown 6 21
Late rain. Bondi 12 20

Saturday 15 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of fog in the early morning. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 16 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 20
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:20 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 17 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Tuesday 18 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 19 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 20 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 6th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 6 August 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Good news ! for those who like some solid waves. It looks like there’ll be plenty of wind and wave direction changes too and variety is the spice of life.

But it may turn out not to be all that pleasant, with lots of Lows on the map swirling around, to end up who knows where. The weather forecast has changed for tomorrow since yesterday, with rain now expected later in the day. So don’t be surprised if the weather and the wave outlooks change over coming days.

At present the surf outlook is

Friday: around 2ish metres, 2+ maybe South East

Saturday: ditto East

Sunday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range Eastish

Monday: dittoish

Tuesday: 3ish metres South East

Wednesday: 2ish metres East

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range East

Stay safe and Have Fun in and out of the water.

TG

Up in the Air

That looks complicated >>>

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug  6 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

And so does this >>>

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug  6 05:30:00 2020

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.764/150.924?-34.283,150.924,8,m:cISakmH

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a bit on the cool side at around 17.

image

 

 

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Friday 7 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 16
Rain developing.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 30 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then shifting east to northeasterly in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Rain developing. Sydney 8 16
Rain developing. Penrith 5 14
Rain developing. Liverpool 5 15
Rain developing. Terrey Hills 7 14
Rain developing. Richmond 3 14
Rain developing. Parramatta 5 15
Rain developing. Campbelltown 3 15
Rain developing. Bondi 10 16

Saturday 8 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Showers easing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the early morning. The chance of a thunderstorm, chiefly near the coast. Winds east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 9 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 18
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 10 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 17
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 11 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 12 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely later in the day. Light winds.

Thursday 13 August

Summary
Min 12
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 30th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf Forecast issued Thursday 30 July 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Woooooo… that fresh southerly breeze on the coast is chilly.  It brought the size up a little this arvo but no one wanted to be out in it as far as I could see.

Down a little tomorrow, similar Saturday, then waves all week while gradually easing back in size and swinging direction.

Friday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range South/South East

Saturday: ditto East South East with some oomph

Sunday: down a little more in the 1-2 metre range but still with some push East South East

Monday:  around 1 metre or so East

Tuesday: ditto East North East

Wednesday: ditto again North East

Thursday: similarish North East

On better understanding >>>

Drove my bike, that I mostly ride to the beach and back sometimes, to a bike shop to get a new tube for a flat tyre.

I pushed it in to the shop, and the guy checked it out and said:

Really the two rims are wearing down to unsafe levels. They could split while you’re riding, which is dangerous. (Agreed). You’re looking at around $400 for two new wheels, but there’s a few other things that need attention.

You’re better off getting a new bike for around $500.

But we don’t have one of those to suit you at the moment.

We’ve got like this for $700, or this for a thousand.  (Hmmm.. expensive flat tyre).

Decided I’d think about it…

I pushed my bike back out to the car.

Now I have a better understanding of why they are called push bikes>>>

TG.

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 30 06:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 30 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.859,151.200,5

Down in the Sea

image

Water temp is around 17-18.

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 31 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 11:20 am to 12:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Mostly sunny. Sydney 9 17
Sunny. Penrith 5 18
Sunny. Liverpool 6 17
Mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 8 15
Sunny. Richmond 3 17
Sunny. Parramatta 6 17
Sunny. Campbelltown 3 18
Mostly sunny. Bondi 11 17

Saturday 1 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 19
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Patchy fog in the early morning. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Sunny day. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 2 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 3 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Tuesday 4 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Wednesday 5 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely later in the day. Light winds.

Thursday 6 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h later.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 23rd, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 July 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Nice day today,,, and tomorrow, but after that…you might be looking for something else to do  mostly indoors.

A Low is expected to develop off the Far North Coast of NSW late Sunday, then move quickly down the NSW coast on Monday. So swell direction and size will depend on where it ends up, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be pleasant. As it looks at the moment>>>

Friday: around 1 metre ish South/ South East

Saturday: around 1 metre or so South/East

Sunday:  1 ish metre South East

Monday: coming up into the 2-3 metre range at this stage South East

Tuesday: 3 ish metres South/South East, could have oomph

Wednesday: around 2 -3 ish metres East, ditto

Thursday: somewhere in the 2-3 metre range East.

Stay safe, stay aware, don’t share anything around that you wouldn’t want shared with you, if it’s already been shared with you…Sharing ain’t cool just at the moment.  Have Fun!! Focus on what you can do.. not what you can’t.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 23 06:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 23 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.850/151.220?-34.283,150.924,8

 

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a round 18…

image

Tides https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Here’s something for the nerds 🙂  Starts from 1992.

Click to access sydney_StormHistoryTable.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast issued at 4:20 pm EST on Thursday 23 July 2020.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 24 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Possible fog then mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Morning fog. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible fog then mostly sunny. Sydney 8 18
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Penrith 2 20
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Liverpool 3 19
Early fog then mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 7 17
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Richmond 1 19
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Parramatta 4 19
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Campbelltown 2 19
Possible fog then mostly sunny. Bondi 11 18

Saturday 25 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Areas of fog in the early morning. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 26 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending south to southwesterly during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 12:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 27 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Tuesday 28 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Wednesday 29 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Slight (20%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny day. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Thursday 30 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds