Archive for June 2017

Surf flicks on Northern Beaches

Posted on June 30th, 2017 in At large, Top stories.

HiltonAlves, NazarePortugal

Tim Bonython’s wrapping up his ASMF Big Wave Project show with a final swing through the Northern Beaches and he’s got a pair of tickets to give away.

To be in with a chance, use the form below to send me a picture of any of the northern beaches (that’s the skill part) and I’ll pick the best pic to get the tickets to the show of your choice. Be sure to use the text box to tell me which show you want tickets for.
I will pick a winner Tuesday evening, 4th of July.

(Uploading pics from mobile devices may be a challenge! I tried from my android phone and I needed to select the documents option to choose a picture. Your mileage may vary!)

PRIVACY NOTE: Email addresses will ONLY be used for purposes of this contest. They will not be supplied to third parties.

THE SHOWS

  • Thursday 6th of July 8pm The Collaroy
  • Friday 7th at The Balgowlah RSL
  • Saturday 8th at Club Palm Beach.

Watch the trailer

And website
www.ASMF.net.au


0830 signs of swell at Curly

Posted on June 30th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

It was flat at Manly but Curly looked to be picking up waist to chest high sets. The banks situation could be better because mostly it was shutting down but the low tide has to be a factor as well. 


Icy start with minimal waves

Posted on June 30th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Steady and very brisk 15-20 kts SW wind smoothing the sea at Dee Why as Friday kicked off. No obvious sign of the expected swell, but it’s on the way if the Eden buoy is any guide. It’s over the two metre mark down there, so I’d say the Bureau’s call is not wildly implausible. They’re saying swell could be piling in by lunch time – as in 2.5 to 4 metres.
Tide was low at 0730 and will reach a 1.4 metre high by 1345.
I’ll try to sling up a few more pics in the next another hour or two…
Have a great Friday!

Looking very quiet at Dee Why as of 0715


Weather Situation
A cold front will strengthen southerly winds along the New South Wales coast today. A low will develop within the front as it moves away over the Tasman Sea. Winds are expected to ease during Saturday as a high pressure system moves over southeast Australia strengthening a ridge to the west. Winds will turn northerly on Sunday ahead of the next change expected in the middle of next week.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning, then increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 1 July
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the morning then decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 2 July
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Longy headland

Posted on June 29th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Just a hair too small to surf at Burrterbox and Makaha. Maybe a sup or mal…


Lazy afternoon at Dee Why

Posted on June 29th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Taking a bike break so cycled to the beach

 Beautiful conditions. Flat most of the time but every now and then a just catchable wave appears.

Waiting…

Then one wave wanders in


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on June 29th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 June 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

An interesting, “vigorous” outlook.  Background from the BoM: “Weather Situation
A cold front will bring vigorous southerly change along the New South Wales south coast tonight extending to Sydney Waters Friday morning and to the far north coast in the afternoon. A low will develop within the front as it moves over the Tasman Sea.”

Some people are saying 10 foot swell on Sunday, some models have similar indications, while some others are not so sure.

As Nick Carroll and I were discussing  (Hey I don’t mind when Nick name drops TG) just last week at the Surf Life Saving Sydney Northern Beaches Awards of Excellence dinner (Oh, is that another name drop..more later*:)), the models have been a bit off at times lately and they don’t always get it right anyway.  But ain’t it grand that there are still some things in nature that just can’t be predicted.

The BoM’s supercomputer currently has the Low being shoved off pretty fast by the cold front moving from the west in the southern ocean at 40 knots = about 75ks an hour, just slowed to 35=65ks, so the Low/s should be mostly off NZ by late Saturday. Before it goes away, while it’s off the NSW south coast most of the swell that looks like being generated will have a very SW bent to it…. meaning it’ll be Nasty Big out in the Tasman, but closer to the coast, see below.. It all depends on whether the Low tracks as expected.  As I said tto Nick it always amazes me that the BoM can predict their movements at all. The way I see it, it’s like trying to predict what tangent a spinning top on a table might head off on. No change yet in the MHL Eden buoy 1.4-2.1 metres South South East, similar to the last few days.

TG’s best estimates right now for Surf, from examining the entrails, taking all things into consideration, and mixing in a good dose of judgement:

Friday: starting to show something at places that get dead South swell, say in the 1-2 metre range, increasing through the day

Saturday: about 2, maybe 3 metres at dead South spots with a reasonable period, so some might get into protected corners.  Bigger up the coast; big outside at South West Rocks and the State IRB Championships on the main beach might even see a ripple or two, but nothing the Av boys and girls couldn’t handle. Go Av!

Sunday: easing back a bit, say about 2 metres South East, still with a reasonable, eased back period

Monday: back more in the 1-2 metre range South East

Tuesday: 1 metre or less

Wednesday: a slight uptick at places open to dead South swell, somewhere into the 1-2 metre range

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places.

The Bureau is forecasting some more cool days ahead to sap your energy levels if you go out.  Water temp has cooled quite a bit since I went in earlier in the week, from 20 to less than 18 according to the MHL buoy.  Surf within your own limitations and Stay Safe.

* Nick and I were nominated by our respective surf clubs for different awards (Nick for Masters Athlete of the Year; me for Community Surf Safety Education in TG’s Surf Forecast!).  An honour just to be nominated. We weren’t successful as there were some pretty tough and worthy other club nominees. Well done to those who won the prestigious awards. Everyone had a good time, at least I did. 🙂

In the Sea

Colder water is creeping up the coast, with lots of whales hightailing it north for their annual hols.  So far today I’ve seen 16 just by having a glance every now and again, and just saw 4 more. They’ve happily cruising along, between 5 and 15 ks out.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

In the Sky

Latest chart

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jun 29 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.902,151.200,5

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 17
Morning shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog in the west. High (70%) chance of showers during the morning, clearing. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Morning shower or two.Sydney17
Morning shower or two.Penrith18
Morning shower or two.Liverpool17
Morning shower or two.Terrey Hills15
Morning shower or two.Richmond18
Morning shower or two.Parramatta17
Partly cloudy.Campbelltown18
Morning shower or two.Bondi17

 

Friday 30 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon then becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 1 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southerly during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 2 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 3 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 19
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 4 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 5 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south


Small to micro morning

Posted on June 29th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

No one in the water this morning at Dee Why from what I could see. Wind was coming from the SW to WSW at less than 10 kts under overcast skies. The MHL Sydney buoy’s been off the air for a few days now, but the Bureau’s call for southerly swell at around a metre is consistent with what I could see from the crows nest this morning. Tide was low at 0700 and is coming into the 1.4m high at 1250.
There doesn’t seem to be any real prospect for an improvement to surf conditions today, but overnight things should change pretty dramatically. I’ll be interested to see the Goat’s take later, but there should definitely be much more energy in the system from Friday around midday onward.
Have yourself a top old Thursday everyone!

Could you have caught it? Probably not!

Tiny shorey at Kiddies 0800

Too tiny at the point to attract any takers 0800

Weather Situation
A cold front will bring vigorous southerly change along the New South Wales south coast tonight extending to Sydney Waters Friday morning and to the far north coast in the afternoon. A low will develop within the front as it moves over the Tasman Sea. Winds are expected to ease during Saturday as a high pressure system moves over southeast Australia strengthening a ridge to the west.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Friday 30 June
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 1 July
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


Very small and inconsistent but not zippo

Posted on June 28th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Cloudy skies, glassy seas and a tiny south swell combining to deliver the occasional waist high take-off for the patient folks bobbing around at the point at 0730. In between the one or two wave sets it pretty much looks like a lake.
Tide was low at 0545 and is heading back to a 1.45m high at 1155.
Prospects for an improvement still look about the same as yesterday, ie a solid south pulse hitting overnight Thursday and filling in during the morning on Friday along with 25-35 kts of SW wind. With luck the pulse – which could be into the head plus range – should last through to Monday if the models are right.
Have a great day everyone!

Bomb set at 0730

Weather Situation
A trough and associated cold front will bring a west to southwesterly change to southern and central parts of the New South Wales coast today, continuing to the north on Thursday. A second front will move along the coast late Thursday and Friday, accompanied by vigorous southerly winds. A low pressure system is then forecast to develop within the front as it moves across the Tasman Sea, while a new high pressure system develops over New South Wales in its wake.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of rain offshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Thursday 29 June
Winds
Northwest to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending westerly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, reaching 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower offshore.
Friday 30 June
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.


Whadya know not quite flat

Posted on June 27th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Good to be wrong about my expectations for this morning. The waves aren’t consistent and they aren’t very big, but there was a little line trickling in at Dee Why as of 0800 Tuesday morning. Sets looked to be into the waist high range but mostly it was smaller than that. Surface conditions were smooth and the wind was west at 10 kts or so. The MHL buoy was showing 1.4 metres of 9-sec SSE swell as of 0600. Tide’s running into the 1.4m high at 1100 and today should be partly cloudy.
Outlook is for the little conditions to stick around more or less through Thursday before ramping up overnight and getting into the 3 metre range for Friday morning when wind should be from the SW. The swell is predicted to roll off from the Friday peak but if the current modelling is correct, we should see 10-11 sec south swell through Sunday. Here’s hoping!
Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Possibilities up the beach

Set at the point

Little wave ridden

Gliding along the rocks

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is currently the dominant feature over southeast Australia, leading to generally light winds over New South Wales waters today. Northwest to southwesterly winds will develop during Wednesday as a cold front affects the region. A second front will move through during Thursday and Friday, accompanied by fresh to strong southerly winds.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.
Wednesday 28 June
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning west to southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Thursday 29 June
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning westerly 20 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.


Bike ride to Northy

Posted on June 26th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Didn’t surf today so hopped on the pushy to see how long it’d take to get to Northy. As you do. About 20min as it turns out. About 20 in the water getting knee to waist plus softish rights and lefts. Not many makeable ones.

Took some pics with the phone…


 

Page optimized by WP Minify WordPress Plugin