Archive for August 2017

Little waves at Manly

Posted on August 31st, 2017 in Surf Reports.


Plenty of swell

Posted on August 31st, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
At 0600 the MHL buoy was detecting 3.76m of 10-sec SSE swell and as you can see from the pics, wave faces were probably into that range along the beach and not far off it at the point. Plus, the Bureau is telling us to expect it to peak around midday. So, those bomb sets aren’t likely to back off anytime soon. Apart from the challenge of the size and raw look to the swell, we can expect the wind to go southerly soon and be 20-30 kts. However if you were in the water by 0700 when I grabbed the pictures, wind was still offshore at around 10 kts.
Tide hits low at 0910 and then will be back to a moderate 1.4m high at 1555.
Weather should be sunny with a high of 17 for the last day of winter.
The Goat should roll out a forecast later today, so I’ll just observe that from my reading of the models, it looks like waves through the weekend.
Have a great Thursday and check back later because I may get a few more snaps of today’s surf…

Hefty set arrives at the point 0700

Some clean ones on the inside

Up the beach looking too big to surf

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge into New South Wales, while a low is deepening over the Tasman Sea. Together, these systems are generating fresh to strong southerly winds over coastal waters, and an increasing swell. Winds will gradually ease tonight and Friday as the low loses influence and the high drifts east. Winds are forecast to turn northerly on Saturday ahead of the next front, expected to cross the state on Sunday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres inshore, increasing to 3 to 4 metres offshore around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 1 September
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower in the morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 2 September
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the day then tending northerly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the early morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Dropped but not hopeless

Posted on August 30th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
As of 0600 the MHL buoy was detecting 1.7 metres of 14 sec SSE swell out at sea. Along Dee Why beach that was translating into the odd waist high bump for the patient and well-positioned people in the water. Tide hits low at 0805 and will then run into a 1.4 m high at 1450. Weather should be partly cloudy and a mild 19 ahead of a late S-SE change this afternoon.
The Bureau says the swell should come up, but not this morning. By tomorrow they’re warning it will ramp up into the 2-3 metre range under partly cloudy skies and with winds from the S-SW at 25-30 kts. Friday should see the wind back off a bit and the swell will be off the peak, but still a reasonable 2-3 metres from the south. The models are showing the quality surf lasting into Saturday morning at this stage. Next week currently looks quiet for the front half, but on Thursday morning when yours truly is getting wheeled into the ear surgery at least one of the long range models is showing very good prospects for pumping and clean conditions under sunny skies…
Have yourself a top old day and go well with your plans!

A few folks in the water at No Mans around 0730

Point looking marginal but there should be something along the beach


Weather Situation
A slow-moving low over the Tasman Sea continues to direct southerly winds along the New South Wales coast whilst a high south of the Bight extends a ridge to southeast Australia. A cold front will move along the New South Wales coast today bringing a strengthening southerly airstream. The high is expected to move over Tasmania in the wake of the front with a ridge of high pressure extending northwards across the state. Another low will develop over the Tasman Sea and as it moves towards New Zealand the ridge will move over the east of the state before a high centre develops over the northern Tasman Sea on the weekend.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres later in the evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Thursday 31 August
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres inshore, increasing to 3 to 4 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 1 September
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.


Cleaned up and solid

Posted on August 29th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Swell at Dee Why point was solidly overhead on the sets at 0630, but the Bureau says it should fade noticeably by around midday. But it shouldn’t go flat. The call is for southerly wind later but it was offshore at 0630 when I checked the ocean for the first time. Low tide was at 0710 and will be back to a 1.4 metre high at 1350. By then the south wind should be a factor, although on the hopeful side, the forecast does say it’ll be fading to light and variable as we head to a 18 high under partly cloudy skies.
Tomorrow should be sunny and small but not not flat with light offshores all morning. The Bureau and the models show another southerly event with both wind and swell kicking up again into the solid range at south magnets for Thursday. This morning’s model consensus suggests we can expect south swell in the waist to shoulder plus range right through the weekend.
Get amongst it if you can and have a great Tuesday!

Shutting down for the most part up the beach

Solidly overhead on sets at 0630

Consistent for the crowd

Weather Situation
A slow-moving low over the Tasman Sea continues to direct southerly winds along the New South Wales coast whilst a high south of the Bight extends a ridge to southeast Australia. Winds along the coast should continue to ease today. A cold front over the Southern Ocean should reach Tasmania tonight and then move along the New South Wales coast on Wednesday bringing another fresh southerly airstream. The high is expected to move over Tasmania in the wake of the front with a ridge of high pressure extending northwards across the state. Another low will develop over the Tasman Sea and as it moves towards New Zealand the ridge will move over the east of the state before a high centre develops over the northern Tasman Sea on the weekend.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 30 August
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers offshore, 40% chance elsewhere.
Thursday 31 August
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers


Pictures from this morning

Posted on August 28th, 2017 in At large.

Just a few snaps gathered on my morning commuter run…

Occasional set waves of interest at the Kick

Not even high tide and waves wetting pedestrians

Waves forming hundreds of metres off DY beach this morning

Coffee run

Queenscliff looking rather heavy

Boom!

Took forever to catch this one at Queensie about 0830

Swell going past the Bower for the most part – but there were exceptions.

Breakfast time may not be well attended aboard this ship

Not so quiet between Queenscliff and Freshy


Wild and messy morning

Posted on August 28th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Not really surfable looing at Dee Why this morning. Swell was close to the 5 metre mark at 0500. It was straight south and around 10 seconds apart. No one was in the water for obvious reasons, so I’m only guessing that sets are around 1.5-2x overhead on the bombs. It could be bigger. Wind at North Head was coming from the WSW at 15-20 kts when I wrote this at 0730.
The wind is expected to decrease as we get toward dark. Looking at the cams, I’d say your best hope of a wave will be at the usual suspects for these conditions, namely the south end of Manly and Collaroy to Fishermans.
Tide was low at 0625 and will be back to a 1.4 m high at 1300.
Tomorrow looks a little more plausible for a surf along the Dee Why to Longy stretch. The wind should have backed off a bit and the swell will be dropping. Right now it seems that the energy will fade into Wednesday and then overnight it will start to come up again and be back around the 3 metre mark from Thursday through Friday.
Go well with your Monday everyone!

Not a morning for surfing at Dee Why


Weather Situation
A vigorous south to southwesterly change move north along the coast overnight. Winds and seas will gradually ease later on Monday and during Tuesday as a high pressure system, currently south of the Bight, moves east and extends a ridge to the western Tasman Sea. The next southerly change is expected on Wednesday.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers offshore, 50% chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 29 August
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 30 August
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers


Little bumps and maybe little waves

Posted on August 27th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Sunday started off mild, sunny and with light winds. Swell has dropped overnight and the MHL buoy is now showing about a metre from the SSE at 10 seconds apart. There were a couple of folks in the water at the point and more scattered along the beach. From what I could tell it seemed to be in the knee to waist high range but with quite long waits for anything to turn up. Yesterday it seemed to be 30% bigger at Curly, so that might be worth a look if you don’t mind the Sunday crowds.
Tide was low at 0545 and is now headed to a 1.45m high at 1215.
Despite the sunny and mild start to the day, the Bureau tells us it’ll all go pear-shaped later when a vigorous SW-S change and showery skies arrive. There’s even a chance of hail.
We’re in for a wild couple of days with rain, lots of SW wind going southerly in the afternoon and swell ramping up into the 2-3 m range on Monday. Tuesday may possibly be a little more friendly to surfing as the swell fades back a touch and Huey starts to turn down the wind machine. The good news is that the end of the work week currently looks rather hopeful on the models, with some calling for 2-3 metres of south swell and SSW wind.
Have a great Sunday everyone!

A couple bods waiting at the point as of 0830

Trying to paddle into one, but not quite catching it


Weather Situation
A vigorous southerly change associated with a cold front will develop along the New South Wales south coast during Sunday morning extending to Sydney Waters in the afternoon and reaching the Queensland border overnight. Winds and seas will gradually ease later on Monday and during Tuesday as a high south of the Bight extends a ridge to the western Tasman Sea. Next southerly change is expected to develop on Wednesday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the morning then becoming southwesterly 25 to 30 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers during this afternoon and evening, with possible hail.
Monday 28 August
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning southerly 20 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers offshore, 40% chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 29 August
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.


Chest high sets – in the right spots

Posted on August 26th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looking at the forecast last night, I wasn’t very hopeful about this morning’s prospects, but happily I was too gloomy and there are waves at spots with optimal orientation to the SSE swell. At 0500 the MHL buoy was showing 1.6 metres at around 8 seconds. Tide’s building to the high at 1130 and swell should fade out this morning as the wind backs off a little. Then tomorrow looks to be flat, but come Monday-Tuesday it seems we’re in for some solid south energy. The models are showing 3+ metres at 11 seconds with wind from the south Monday but going SSW Tuesday and getting pretty strong. Could be a crazy day or two…
Have a top old Saturday everyone!

too small to surf Makaha

Kicking out at Northy

Momentary interest at South Narra

No Mans soft but fun looking

Goodly crew enjoying nice peak at kiddies


Weather Situation
Southerly winds along the New South Wales will tend west to northwesterly in the south later today ahead of a strong southerly surge associated with a cold front during Sunday. Behind the front a high pressure system will move over southeastern Australia on Sunday extending a ridge to the western Tasman Sea and winds should ease.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots tending southwesterly in the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 27 August
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning, then increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Monday 28 August
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers


Early was cold, grey, windy but waves

Posted on August 25th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Chilly start with grey skies and 10-15 kts of WSW wind this morning. A few bods at the point where the swell’s not quite doing it. Sets there looked to be in the waist to maybe chest and a bit range. Up the beach it was relatively smooth and a bit bigger. Not fantastic quality and the tide is coming into a 1.5m high at 1045. The day’s not expected to warm up much either. Our high is going to be around the 17 mark. The Bureau says the wind will be southerly through the day and the swell should come up a bit more. The MHL buoy was offline when I checked, but I’d say the Bureau’s prediction of 1.5-2 metres from the south looks consistent with what was showing at Dee Why.
As for the outlook, well, we have a freshly baked set of prognostications from the Goat.
Stay warm, and good luck if you decide to get wet!

Plausible section just north of Kiddies at 0730

No Man’s seeing some size at 0730

Weather Situation
A weak low pressure system over the Tasman Sea and a ridge of high pressure extending over the state from the west are combining to establish southerly winds across the waters into the new week.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers offshore, 40% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this morning.
Saturday 26 August
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots tending southwesterly in the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 27 August
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Becoming cloudy. 60% chance of showers.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 24th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 24 August 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fairly consistent weather outlook for the week ahead… showers, cool air, and mostly Southerly type winds to make it feel even cooler and to set the scene for an up and down week surfwise. It’s coming up today, currently in the 1.7-3.6 metre range offshore SSE being pushed along by the strong Southerly~~~~~~

Friday: 2-3 metres at dead South places, windblown

Saturday: down a bit, say in the 1-2 metre range going down dead South spots

Sunday: around 1 metre but with occasional long period sets dead South

Monday: coming up.. 2-3 metres dead South places

Tuesday: easing back through  2-3 metres through the day dead South

Wednesday: 1-2 metre range dead South

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East.

Stay Cool. Stay Warm.

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 24 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 24 04:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.917,151.200,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is 17-18 which is cool in my book, and I don’t mean Cool.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 17
Shower or two. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers developing in the afternoon along the coastal fringe, medium (50%) chance elsewhere. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:20 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Shower or two. Windy.Sydney17
Possible shower.Penrith18
Possible shower.Liverpool18
Shower or two.Terrey Hills15
Possible shower.Richmond18
Possible shower.Parramatta17
Possible shower.Campbelltown18
Shower or two. Windy.Bondi16

 

Friday 25 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers along the coastal fringe, slight (20%) chance elsewhere. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h tending southerly in the morning then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Saturday 26 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe, near zero chance elsewhere. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Sunday 27 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Monday 28 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 17
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the day.

Tuesday 29 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 30 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds becoming southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


 

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