Archive for December 2017

Grey Sunday morning and small

Posted on December 17th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

One of those mornings when you need to be unusually keen. Skies were heavily overcast, the wind was coming from the SSE at a steady 10-12 kts and tide was coming into a 1.7 m high at 0830. Out at sea the MHL buoy was seeing swell coming from the east at 1.5 m but with a choppy 6-7 second period.
There were a few folks in the water chasing ankle to knee high dribblers along the beach, but as the picture shows there was nothing at the point.

Outlook is for the weak and tiny conditions to prevail all day. And, according to this morning’s swell models, we’re not likely to see sub-10 second average periods for the next week. Blergh. So, time to look at the alternatives if you’re planning to get in the water. Maybe take the mal or a SUP or just a pair of goggles for a swim.

Have a good one everybody!

Not the best at 0800

 

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea with a ridge to the northwest is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales north coast. A weak southerly change will stall on the central coast and weaken this morning. Winds are expected to turn northeasterly on the south and central coasts by this evening.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting northeasterly in the early morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 18 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 19 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning northerly 20 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Cloudy skies, smooth seas for the early

Posted on December 16th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Glassy for the early session but a full tide and rapidly fading swell meant very long waits between catchable waves. Sets were into the waist high range, but while you’re waiting, it looks like a lake. The faint breeze was coming from the north when I checked the beaches around 0630. Tide was coming into a 1.67 m high at 0755 and the forecast of possible showers looked entirely plausible. At 0400 the MHL buoy was detecting a mix of north and south swells. The southerly component was dominant at 1.3 m from 168 degrees at 12 sec. Looking at the trends though, I’d say it’s likely to be smaller than that now.
Once the NE wind kicks into gear by midday, the wind bump could push up something vaguely surfable in the semi-protected north corners.
The Bureau tells us the wind will swing south in the late evening and Sunday should see S-SW for the early when – if we’re lucky – there’ll be some remnant of the NE pulse.
As for the rest of the week, well the models are pretty ho-hum with Wednesday currently looking about the most hopeful for a wave at NE spots early.
Have a great Saturday everyone!

Peak near the Pole

Near the lagoon 0640

Glide path

Narrabeen peaks at 0625

Kiddies set at 065=35

Set at the alley

Sailing north

Hopeful at south Narrabeen

Low energy levels at Narrabeen


Southerly and grey early

Posted on December 15th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

15-25 kts of southerly blowing from daybreak and by 0630 it seemed to be pushing up a little wind swell. There was at least one person hanging out at the point but I didn’t see them catch anything and up the beach there wasn’t any significant sign of activity. Yesterday’s NE wind swell seems to have been steamrolled away by the wind change. Whether the south change will do us any favours on the wave front remains to be seen. As for the week ahead, may I refer you to the Goat’s wisdom down the page.
The 1.6 m high tide is at 0715 and the 0.5 m low will occur at 1345.
Have yourself a fine Friday and stay happy!

Not much of a line showing up the beach

A little line inside and a wave hunter waiting at the point

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days. This high will direct north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters. A short-lived southerly change south of Hunter will weaken during the day with winds tending northerly throughout in the evening. Another weak change is forecast to affect southern parts of the coast on Saturday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 30 knots inshore early in the morning. Winds tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy.

Saturday 16 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning and again in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore in the early afternoon.

Sunday 17 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day then tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 14th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 14 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

School hols have started for some, and start for the rest from tomorrow.

So mums and dads want to know for the week ahead…

Can I say: Go surfing! to get the kids out of the house!?… Or even: Can I go surfing myself!!??

Well, make of this what you will… But make sure the kids…and you… stay safe in the surf.

Friday: despite a southerly change expected by the Bureau overnight, there should still be waves in the 1-2 metre range East North East , which of course will be poor quality at places open to the south but kids never notice that

Saturday: dittoish re wave size and direction

Sunday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East North East, feeling the effects of more southerly wind

Monday: ditto re waves

Tuesday: dittoish, more Nor East

Wednesday: ditto East North East

Thursday: smaller East North East

Stay calm in the Lead up to Christmas Spirit.  No more carpark parking rage eh Col? Stay cool … Relaax …Everyone. Have fun! Or Else!!

TG.

Up up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 14 03:30:00 2017

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 14 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

Down down in the Sea

Water temp was beautiful today (Thursday) at around 22, despite the persistent Summer Noreasters we’ve had with the nice weather… it hasn’t been consistently NE though.  If the wind was going to continue strong from the NE for another day or so I’d say we could get some cold water.  But the Bureau is forecasting a southerly change, then a bit of chopping and changing wind directions, so the water should stay warm enough.

Some friends asked me the other day, what is the technical reason the water can get colder in Summer?

Technical reason!?  Why ask me??… 🙂

To help you all out, let’s see how the experts explain it:

http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1244/the-ekman-transport-effectcold-water-upwelling-on-australian-coastlines/

My Simple Rule of Thumb for Sydney and most of the NSW coastline: After 3 days of Strong Nor Easters expect Cold, Green, Darker, Plankton laden, Uncomfortable/Hypothermia-inducing-if-immersed-in-it-for-too-long, Cold Water.

image

Tides

Watch out for those shallow low tides. We don’t want you to become a paraplegic or worse from misjudging a wave or from a dumping shorebreak for that matter.

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 32
Afternoon cloud developing.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Hot inland. Partly cloudy. The slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h, with northeasterly winds 20 to 30 km/h near the coast extending inland during the late afternoon and evening.

Fire Danger – Severe

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Afternoon cloud developing.Sydney32
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Penrith42
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Liverpool41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Terrey Hills36
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Richmond41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Parramatta41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Campbelltown41
Windy. Afternoon cloud developing.Bondi30

 

Friday 15 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and early evening. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming southerly 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 16 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Hot. Mostly sunny morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeast to southeasterly during the day then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 17 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 18 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 30
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 19 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 30
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower during the morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 20 December

Summary
Min 24
Max 34
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Hot. Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds.


Before the heat

Posted on December 14th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

It’s set to be very hot in the western suburbs today and not exactly cool on the coast. At 0700 wind was coming from the north at 4-5 kts. That should pick up soon as we head to an afternoon with winds of 15-25 kts from the N-NE. There’s definitely more wind swell evident this morning. The MHL buoy was picking up 1.7 m of 8-sec NE wind bump, so there should be some scrappy, close together stuff at NE spots. Quality may be so-so, but at least you can get wet if you’re moderately keen.
The Goat will drop his predictions for the week ahead later today, so as always I’ll be keen to see his take on the prospects. My quick scan of the models suggests that today and tomorrow could be about as good as it gets for the next week or so… hope the Goat’s more optimistic!
Have a great day everyone and stay hydrated!

Maybe a tiny bit more activity than yesterday but still barely above flat at 0650

Surfer tries to get into one near No Mans at 0650

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days. This high will direct north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters. A short-lived southerly change is expected on the south coast this afternoon and evening, progressing to the Hunter or Mid North Coast on Friday before weakening. Another weak change is forecast to affect southern parts of the coast on Saturday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots. A south to southwesterly change 20 to 25 knots reaching the inshore parts late at night.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres offshore.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening.

Friday 15 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots throughout, early in the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Saturday 16 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

A quick Curly sesh

Posted on December 13th, 2017 in Curl Curl.

Rebuilding fitness after long layoff due to ear op, so dropped by nth Curly for a paddle. The little gutless east wind swell was focussing enough to produce the odd chest plus face and though pretty busy I managed to get 10 waves. Fun was had on a warm morning just ahead of the wind. Grabbed some snaps with my goofy binos rig…


Tiny to near flat this morning

Posted on December 13th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

We’re in for a very warm and windy weather today, but very little in the way of wave energy. As of 0700 there were several people hanging out in the shorey near Kiddies but it looked feeble and not much above the knee high mark. Wind was light NNE when I grabbed the pictures but it’s set to build up to 15-25 kts by midday. The MHL buoy report from 0400 showed 1.1 m of 11-sec east swell – which is actually a bit bigger than the same time yesterday. So, there should be the odd bump at places that had waves yesterday.

Tide was a 1.5 m high at 0545 and will be back to low right on noon.

Get on it early if you you’re going to get on it I’d say.

Outlook is for more of the same across the next couple of days (ie onshores and tiny wind bump, with morning’s being best shot)

A few folk bobbing hopefully in the knee to waist high zone at Dee Why around 0700

Faint hint of a line toward No Mans 0700

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days. This high will direct north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters. A short-lived southerly change is expected on the south coast Thursday afternoon, progressing to the Hunter or Mid North Coast on Friday before weakening. Another weak change is forecast to affect parts of the coast on Saturday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 14 December

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Friday 15 December

Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the afternoon then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Another quiet one

Posted on December 12th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A light NE breeze wafting along before 0700. Skies were mostly clear, although there seemed to be clouds out to sea . There was no sign of so much as a surfable bump at Dee Why nor up the beach toward No Mans. You’ll need to look elsewhere if you’re keen to get wet. Tide was high at 0455 and will hit low at 1055 – not that it maters much given the weak swell conditions. The MHL buoy was showing a metre of 10-sec SE at 0400 and that’s almost exactly what we were seeing at this point yesterday. So, if you found waves yesterday morning, I’d start by looking there again.

Outlook remains less than interesting on the swell forecast models. There still seems to be some prospect for a little east bump on Saturday. But thereafter currently looks kinda sad.

Oh well, it is summer, so keep on smilin’, the waves always come back!

No surf at Dee Why this morning

Only ripples at No Mans 0640

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days. This high will direct east to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters today, but these winds will become increasingly northerly as the week progresses. The next significant change will arrive at the end of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 13 December

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 14 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Very small on Monday morning

Posted on December 11th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light NNW wind, sunny skies, but very tiny looking at Dee Why. Couldn’t see anyone in the water. A quick scan of the cams shows that you might get a knee high dribbler elsewhere thanks to the 1 metre 9-sec east wind bump. Take a very floaty object and an optimistic attitude if you’re going for a look. Tide hits the low at 0945 and will be back to the high at 1550. By then the NE’r should be up to full strength, so the plan is to hit it sooner rather than later.

Outlook for the next few days is not too interesting wave-wise. I hope the swell models are wrong because they’re all pretty dour about our prospects through to the end of the work week.

Have a great day and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation

A weak high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days, although a trough will briefly affect the southern coast today. This pattern will see southeast to northeasterly winds directed over New South Wales waters, becoming increasingly northerly as the week progresses. The next significant change will arrive at the end of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots, becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday, and reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 12 December

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 13 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny

Warm start on a day of tiny waves

Posted on December 10th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A light easterly breeze was wafting across the beaches at 0730 this morning. There didn’t seem to be much energy down at Dee Why though. I couldn’t see anyone in the water at the point or up the beach. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.1 m of 11-sec SE swell. Tide is low at 0830 and will be back to high at 1445. Magnets may be picking up something in the knee high range on sets, but I’d be surprised if there was anything much above the waist high mark.

This morning’s run of the swell forecast models doesn’t look too exciting. Prospects seem to be for the current low-energy state to be maintained through the coming week, although at least one of the predictions is showing a prospect for some waist plus NE bump on Thursday-Friday. Hope they’re undercalling it…

Have a great Sunday and may the good ones come your way if you get in!

 

Weather Situation

Winds will generally tend southeast to northeasterly this weekend as a weak high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. This high is expected to be the dominant feature over the region for the following days, although a weak trough is forecast to bring a brief southerly change to southern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching northeasterly 15 to 20 knots for a time during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 11 December

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 12 December

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

 

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