Archive for February 2018

Watching the comp at Manly

Posted on February 28th, 2018 in Manly.

Waves to be had up the beach

Hello Friends,

Just stopped by the Surfrider stand at the Vissla comp in Manly this morning and grabbed a few snaps to share. It was clean but full early and now (1000) tide is dropping but summer is finishing up with a sunny day and plenty of NE wind.
Sets down this way are pushing into the shoulder to head high range, so it’s definitely contestable.

If schedule permits, I’ll try to update with further observations.

Go well!

Here comes the NEr


Nice waves for the contest this morning

Posted on February 27th, 2018 in Manly, Surf Reports.

The Vissla Sydney Surf Pro is on and I stopped by to see the Surfrider stand and to grab a snap or two to share…


Wave energy evident Tuesday morning

Posted on February 27th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Waist to head high sets at 0715

Set surprises the waiting crew

Plausible if rough looking peak at No Mans   

 

Hello Friends,

We’re set to have 15-20 kts of southerly later, but as of 0730, wind was out of the westerly quarters. As you can see from the pics though, the ocean is choppy and messy looking, but there’s definitely some energy in the mix. Set waves at the point looked to be in the head to maybe even head plus range on the biggest ones. At 0500 the MHL buoy was showing 2.4 metres of 8-second SSE (158°) swell. So, there’s some size, but they’re pretty close together.
Tide hit a 1.8 m high at 0650 and is currently dropping back to the 0.3 m low at 1330. Weather is partly cloudy and we’re looking at a high around 25.
Water may be 24C but yesterday afternoon Beachwatch was warning that pollution was likely at all of the Northern Beaches. I’m going to pass on surfing today.
Outlook is for the short period stuff to gradually decrease in size over the next couple of days and the wind broadly speaking is going to be coming from the south to SE across the period (but lighter early).
Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge into New South Wales. Coastal waters will see a gradual shift to northerly winds before a trough brings a southerly change to the south later Wednesday, continuing through to the north on Thursday. Behind this a new high is forecast to move across Bass Strait, pushing another ridge along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 28 February
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, reaching 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Thursday 1 March
Winds
Northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending southerly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.


Bleak old Monday in the rain

Posted on February 26th, 2018 in At large.

Looking north, nothing of interest

Solitary bather at Collaroy

Not really very interesting at the pool

White rock showing white water but no obvious quality

Dee Why stormy and unpopulated at 0820

 
Hello Friends,

Bit of a late one today, but when I saw the beach, it was obvious there was no need to get the report out quickly. The much needed rain was falling lightly but steadily and as you can see from the pics, there was only minimal swell energy.
Wind is south to SSE 15-25 kts and the 0700 data from the MHL buoy was showing 3.5 m of 9-sec SSE swell out at sea. Wind and rain are set to tail off a little by this afternoon. Tide was high at 0545 and will be low at 1230 before coming back into a 1.3 m high at 1835.
Tomorrow might be somewhat better in the morning before the SE wind picks up and Wednesday’s shaping to be sunny with light wind early. The big question is will there still be surf of some description. The models are moderately hopeful on that score, so I’m going to be as well!
Have yourself a great Monday everyone!

Weather Situation
A cold front has brought a vigorous southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast and will continue to extend northwards, reaching the far north by this evening. A transient low pressure system may develop about the Macquarie or Coffs Coast during today, before quickly moving east over the Tasman Sea. A ridge of high pressure will then build along the New South Wales coast as a high pressure system moves across the Bight and into the southern Tasman Sea. Late on Wednesday a southerly change will move along southern parts of the coast, extending to central parts on Thursday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 30 knots, decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain.
Tuesday 27 February
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 28 February
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the day then shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the evening.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Waiting for the rain

Posted on February 25th, 2018 in Dee Why.

One punter at the point 0750

Waiting at Kiddies

Hello Friends,

The SSE wind was just ruffling the surface at 0750 when I climbed aloft to the RealSurf crows nest for a look at the conditions. There was only a faint hint of swell and hardly anyone in the water on a gloomy Sunday morning. According to the MHL data, at 0500 there was an 8-sec  1.5 m SSE wind swell out at sea. I’d say you’d be doing well to pick up a 1.5 m wave (face) anywhere this morning along the Dee Why stretch. Maybe possibly it’d be into that range on the bigger ones up at Longy. Basically though, if you can’t get in the water this morning, you’re really not missing much.

Outlook is for the wind to pick up from the SE later this morning and for the rain to start tumbling down. So, an already sad morning will only get sadder by all indications.

The windy and showery conditions are set to continue through to Tuesday – as are the southeasterly winds. The steady wind activity should, I hope, leave us with a little something on Wednesday morning when it backs off and we’re set to have sunny skies. Thursday may see an uptick in the swell but with more south wind. Here’s hoping for at least a couple of days midweek that are both sunny and surfable.

Have yourself a top old Sunday one and all!

 

Weather Situation

A cold front has brought a vigorous southerly change to southern parts of the coast this morning, and this change will continue to extend northwards today and on Monday, reaching the far north by Monday evening. Behind this change, a ridge of high pressure will develop along the New South Wales coast as a high pressure system moves across the Bight and into the southern Tasman Sea, with winds slowly easing and tending east to northeasterly through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 10 to 15 knots before dawn then increasing to 20 to 30 knots later in the morning. Winds easing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon before tending southeasterly 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly below 0.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm this morning.

Monday 26 February

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres in the middle of the day.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.

Tuesday 27 February

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Waves for the morning sesh

Posted on February 24th, 2018 in At large.

Long waits for little set waves like this at 0640

Sunny start to Saturday

South Narrabeen looking very crunchy

North Narra doing a little bit with the swell

Near the lugga at 0640

Kiddies showing the odd set

Hello Friends,

Light north breeze blowing this morning when I checked it for the first time around 0630. Skies were largely clear and waves looked to be smaller than yesterday. The MHL buoy was showing 1.7 m from the east at 10 seconds as of 0500, so there were still some head high wave faces to be encountered. Tide is dropping to a lowish 0.6 m low at 1000 and that means waves often start out soft on the take off before ending abruptly in a crunching close out. Conditions are definitely tricky at the magnets and beginners should be particularly cautious.

Wind is going to come around to NE later and as it does it’ll ramp up into the high end of the 15-25 kt range. This morning should be sunny, but by late this afternoon as we move into a couple of days of much needed rain.

We’re facing the prospect of rain, showers and SE wind through to Tuesday. Waves across the period are not looking great – mainly short period and

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the north, generating fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. An approaching cold front is expected to bring a vigorous southerly change to the southern coast later Saturday, extending through to the north on Sunday and Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the late afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore during this afternoon and early evening.

Sunday 25 February

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly early in the morning then tending southeasterly in the evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers.

Monday 26 February

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Messy but sizable

Posted on February 23rd, 2018 in Manly, Surf Reports.

A few postcards from torn up but biggish Manly for you. Low tide plus light but steady ne wind was making for treacherous conditions. Lots of one turn wonder waves and unmakeable chaotic shutdowns. The crowd was undeterred.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 22nd, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

How about that pop up surf today!?   Smaller yesterday than it’s been, and this morning… wave height was 1-1.3 metres SE, and then… by 6pm offshore it was clicking 3 -5.7 metres SE!

My neighbour said around 2 pm ‘it’s too big for you’… I ignored that and kept doing what I was doing because he says that when it’s ankle high.

So I got a surprise later to see swell pumping at several places … And yes, it was too big for me at many places! Realistically, fast overhead tubes are not for me, or for most people.

So what’s happening…

Waves all week… though of varying size, suitability and quality…You’ll just have to be agile…. (oh how I love that word)…. and work around how the following might suit you:

Friday: down from this arvo’s pop up surf, but still in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range with sets East South East

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range, but more benign East/ East North East, NE wind-affected later in the day

Sunday: 1-2 metre range East North East, then starting to come up form the S with a windy Southerly change

Monday: big early on at places that get dead south swell, with wind to match…say around 2-3 metres, gradually easing back

Tuesday: 1-2 metre range with sets around 2 metres or so, dead South places only

Wednesday:1-2 metre range with punchier sets, say 2, 2+ metres South East

Thursday: 1-2 metre range, with some solid sets around 2 metres East/ South East

See if you can plot yourself a course around those little numbers

Stay safe in the Surf. Have fun.

TG

 

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Feb 22 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb 22 08:30:00 2018

Wind

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 24

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 23 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 24 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 31
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 25 February

Summary
Min 22
Max 28
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 26 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 27 February

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 28 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 1 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


A little smaller but still a few waves around this morning

Posted on February 22nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Crew at the point as of 0710

A few hopefuls looking around at No Mans

Hello Friends,

Swell’s cogged down a notch overnight. As of 0400 it was 1.7 m at 10 sec from 156 degrees. At 0720 wind was 3 kts out of the WNW at North Head. Tide was low at 0740 and will be back to a 1.4 m high at 1340. There was a small crowd at Dee Why point when I grabbed the snaps a little after 0700. Waves looked to be in the waist to chest plus range and surface conditions were smooth. Lines were showing up the beach toward No Mans as well. Given the swell direction, I’d say there should be waves pretty much everywhere they were yesterday. Ocean is a cozy 24oC.

The Goat will be along later with his prognostications of a surfing sort. From my reading of this morning’s swell models the average period looks like dropping into the gutless sub-10 sec range over the weekend, but may come back up a little next week…

Have yourself a top old Thursday everyone and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southwest Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the north, resulting in generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds are expected to shift more northerly at the end of the week as the high drifts further east and a cold front approaches from the southwest. This front will bring a southerly change to the southern coast later Saturday, extending through to the north on Sunday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 23 February

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre in the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 24 February

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

A few lumpy bumps around this morning

Posted on February 21st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Small but definitely rideable at 0715

Possibilities up the beach toward No Mans

Another set at the point

Hello Friends,

Waves were in the waist to chest high range at the point and along the Dee Why end of the beach this morning at around 0715. Surface conditions were sort of choppy and lumpy but wind was light westerly for the early but it should gradually swing around to the east-SE but not get too strong. Plus the swell should continue at more or less the same level. Next tide is a 1.5 m high at 1240 and weather should stay partly cloudy all day. Ocean is 24oC.
Outlook is for energy levels to fade back into the marginal range over the next 24 hours.
So get in if you can and however it plays out, have a great day one and all!

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea with a ridge to the north/northwest is directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending east to southeasterly around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 22 February

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending easterly below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy.

Friday 23 February

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

 

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