Archive for April 2018

On the road

Posted on April 30th, 2018 in At large.

Out of sight of the ocean this morning but it’s possible I will post something later. Have a great day one and all.


Cool, cloudy, crowded but waves to be had

Posted on April 29th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Definitely surfable this morning at Dee Why both along the beach and at the point – although the latter was hosting around 20 hopefuls as of 0820. I’d call it waist to shoulder with the occasional plus in the mix. Wind was out of the SW at 10-15 kts, so surface conditions were relatively smooth for the 10-sec 1.8 m SSE swell.

The wind will go around to the south and pick up into the 15-20 kt range.  Tide hit a 1.64 m high at 0745 and is now running out to a lowish 0.41 m low at 1450.

Showers are set to increase across the day but it’s not likely to be heavy. We should see a high of 21.

MHL’s model says the swell energy should stay at about the current intensity for another 24 hours before beginning to fade away to flatness midweek. Kinda too bad for your correspondent who’s hitting the road for a trip to Crescent tomorrow. Might be catching up on some reading from the look of it.  Ah, surfing… just the way it is. Have to have the dire days to savour the great ones I guess.

Have a great Sunday one and all!

 

Plenty of folks up the beach at 0820

 

Quite the crew at the point 0820

 

Sets looked to be in the chest high range

 

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system is centred over the Bight, while a complex low lies over the eastern Tasman Sea. This pattern will bring fresh southerly winds to most New South Wales waters for the next few days, as the high slowly drifts east. By Tuesday, the high is expected to be over the Tasman Sea, bringing a general shift to northerly winds through the second half of next week.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore later tonight.

Monday 30 April

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers in the morning.

Tuesday 1 May

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Clean but showery early

Posted on April 28th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Wind was SW for the early session this morning. The showers were coming through frequently and the 0700 1.7 m high tide was taking a toll on the inconsistent 7-sec period 2 metre SSE wind swell. There were a few people in the water at Northy, at south Narrabeen and Dee Why. In all cases it seemed kind of setty, but wave faces were into the chest plus range and maybe bigger on the bombs.
The wind is set to swing around to the south to SE and push up into the 15-20 kt range. So, get in before it switches or contend with junky conditions.
Swell should stay at about the current intensity through tomorrow before fading out to marginal toward midweek.
Have a great Saturday everyone!

Some energy

 

First light rider at the point 0625

 

High tide peak at No Mans

 

Head high peak at Northy 0640

 

Thumping shorey at south Narrabeen

 

Showery skies as the day starts

 

Hmmm, maybe not

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system is centred over western Victoria, while a complex low moves across the Tasman Sea. This pattern is bringing fresh to strong southerly winds to most New South Wales waters today. The high will drift slowly east during the next few days, accompanied by a gradual easing of coastal winds. By Tuesday it is expected to be over the Tasman Sea, with most areas likely to see a shift to northerly winds through the second half of the week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers inshore, 50% chance elsewhere.

Sunday 29 April

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Monday 30 April

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

As predicted it’s southerly

Posted on April 27th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Surf conditions are completely unappetizing at Dee Why. I could only see one person in the water. I’d call wave faces waist to chest plus on sets. But it’s so wind-blown and bumpy that catching the close-together wind swell will be a real challenge. Wind was SE 15-20 kts as of 0850, right in line with the forecast. Out at sea the MHL buoy was showing a touch under 3 metres of 9-second south wind swell. There was a 1.7 m high tide at 0610 and it’s now dropping to a very low 0.38 m at 1230. The wind isn’t expected to decrease today or indeed across the weekend.

It’s Friday, so as usual I’ll dispense with speculations about the longer term outlook and refer you instead to the cogitations of the mighty Goat (see down page)

Have a good Friday everyone and keep on smilin’ the waves will get better…eventually!

 

Messy up the beach toward No Mans at 0840

 

One hopeful bobbing around in the junky chaos of the point

 

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Friday 27 April 2018.

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system southeast of the Bight with a ridge along the New South Wales coast is directing south to southeasterly winds across the western Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Saturday 28 April

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Sunday 29 April

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on April 26th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 April 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

If you’re like me, and are already sick of cooler Southerly winds with not much useful surf to show for it, well we’re both just going to have to suck it up.

Like my Digger grandfather wrote to my grandmother from the Western Front in France in WW1, 100 years ago, when the weather was cold and wet, and he was still recovering from being previously shot in the leg, and gassed:

I hope they won’t be sending us back out in the line, but if they do, I suppose I’ll “just have to make the best of it”.

So with that in mind, the surf will be mainly small and windblown, with not enough pulse to get much into protected corners.

On the positive side, we are able to consider other options 🙂

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range, maybe more , at places that get dead South swell… and a windblown mess

Saturday: 1-2 metre range, windblown

Sunday: 1-2 metre range South East, coming up later at dead South spots… and windblown

Monday: Up at dead South places, bit of size and slightly longer period, but windy

Tuesday: eased back into the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: down to around 1 metre or so South East

Thursday: and ditto.

Stay cool, and stay warm.

TG.

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Apr 26 04:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Apr 26 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.870,151.194,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is still a pleasant-enough-for-swimming 22

image

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 24
Partly cloudy. Becoming windy.
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Morning haze. Partly cloudy day. Medium (40%) chance of an afternoon shower along the coastal fringe, slight (20%) chance elsewhere. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 25 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Partly cloudy. Becoming windy.Sydney24
Partly cloudy.Penrith28
Partly cloudy.Liverpool27
Partly cloudy.Terrey Hills23
Partly cloudy.Richmond27
Partly cloudy.Parramatta26
Partly cloudy.Campbelltown27
Possible afternoon shower. Becoming windy.Bondi23

 

Friday 27 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Saturday 28 April

Summary
Min 16
Max 20
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 29 April

Summary
Min 15
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Monday 30 April

Summary
Min 16
Max 21
Morning shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers during the morning. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 1 May

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Wednesday 2 May

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.


Foggy early with a southerly by noon

Posted on April 26th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Thick fog early. I’ll add pics once it lifts.
Wind was a westerly at 8 kts as of 0720. An hour earlier the MHL buoy was showing less than a metre of east swell at 8 seconds. Tide was a deep 1.7 m high at 0515 and is now dropping to 0.4 m at 1145.
Going by the numbers you’d have to say it’s going to be very small again today, but probably not utterly flat at the magnets. Expect ankle to knee with the odd waist high bomb at the most energetic spots.
The smooth conditions won’t last long though. We’re due to enter southerly world toward midday. Looking at the models I’m not real hopeful about the surf prospects as the predicted periods are in the 6-8 second range, so not much is likely to get into the protected south corners. But we’ll see what the Goat thinks when he posts his latest ruminations later today.
Check back for the pics later, and have yourself a fun Thursday!

Take the SUP 0830

 

Fishing maybe?

 

Weather Situation

A vigorous southerly change associated with a cold front crossing the southern Tasman Sea is moving along the New South Wales far south coat and is expected to reach Sydney Waters on Thursday afternoon and the far north coast in the evening. Southerly winds will gradually ease during Friday and Saturday and tend south to southeasterly as a high pressure system south of the Bight moves very slowly east extending a ridge along the coast.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday, then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore during this afternoon and evening.

Friday 27 April

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Saturday 28 April

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Small waves for Anzac Day morning

Posted on April 25th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A grey and cool start to Anzac Day along the beaches. The sea was comparatively smooth thanks to a light westerly and it looks as though we have another day of smallish but definitely surfable conditions. As the pictures show, waves were waist to maybe chest on the better sets and there were surf options at the point and along the beach.

The MHL buoy was seeing 1.3 metres of 13-sec energy from the SSE (145°) as of 0600. Tide was high at 0415 and is dropping to a 0.4 m low at 1055. It’ll be back to a 1.5 m high at 1710. There’s a 70% chance of a shower or two and the wind will gradually come around to the SE at 10-15kts

Tomorrow the southerly arrives and the Bureau’s hoisted a strong wind warning for up to 30 kts later. The wave energy should be coming up with it, but there has to be a big question mark over the surf options because it looks like average periods will be in the 8 second range – ie close together, weak and choppy. The dominant direction should be east, so maybe protected south corners will see something.

The southerly winds and short period  waves look like dominating through the weekend before fading back early next week.

Have a good Anzac Day and catch you again tomorrow.

No Mans wave at 0700

 

Kiddies wave 0700

 

Set at the point 0700

Weather Situation

A trough off the north coast will weaken today. A significant change is expected on Thursday when a new high, approaching from the west, pushes vigorous southerly winds along the entire coast. Southerly winds will persist into the weekend but moderate, as the high edges towards Bass Straight.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southwest to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers offshore, 60% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Thursday 26 April

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the morning. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Friday 27 April

Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers

Small to tiny this morning

Posted on April 24th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Lightly offshore again under sunny skies this morning. The wind will come around to the SE at 10-15 kts as we warm up to the 24° high. Tide is dropping to a 0.4 m low at 0955. The MHL reading from 0600 showed 1.2 m of 10 second SSE bump which, as the pictures indicate, was delivering knee to maybe waist high bumps along the beach and very occasionally at the point. Beachwatch says the water is sitting on 20°.
The forecast shows a small uptick from the east later in the day when the wind will be less favourable. Should one wait… or go now for the clean conditions… that is the dilemma.
Speaking of forecasts, the outlook for the rest of the week seems basically to be a touch bigger tomorrow and then around Thursday afternoon Huey throws the switch to crazy windy as the southerly arrives and builds toward peak intensity on Friday. Right now it appears likely the blasting southerlies and junky south wind swell will dominate into next week.
Have a great day and keep on smilin’!

Little wave at Kiddies with no takers

 

Maybe waist high bomb set at the point 0710

 

Small lines at No Mans

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge into southern New South Wales, while a trough lies off the northern coast. This pattern is directing southeast to northeasterly winds over most coastal waters, with stronger south to southwesterly winds in the north today due to a nearby low pressure circulation within the trough. A significant change is expected on Thursday when a new high, approaching from the west, pushes vigorous southerly winds along the entire coast.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
South to southwesterly about 10 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to below 1 metre offshore.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 25 April

Winds
Southwest to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 26 April

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning southerly 25 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Nice lines on Monday morning

Posted on April 23rd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Some fun looking lines rolling into Dee Why around 0700 this morning. It was a bit setty looking so I’d say average size is in the waist plus range, but every now and then you could see a shoulder high set. According to the MHL buoy swell was 1.4 m from the SSE at a shade under 12 seconds as of 0600.

Wind was light and surface conditions were smooth as the day kicked off. The wind will pick up from the SE and get to 10-15 kts later. It should be sunny and the Bureau says the swell should hang around at about the same intensity all day. Tide will be a 0.48 m low at 0850 and then it’ll come back into a 1.3 m high at 1500.

From the shape of this morning’s forecasts, we’re heading into an extended period of steadily increasing southerly winds. Tomorrow currently looks okay and Wednesday might not be too extreme but by Thursday it looks like really kicking in for a couple of days (depending on the model). The protected south corners might be seeing surfable size waves when the wind’s at it’s most intense, but the average period predictions are sub-10sec so it may be more big chop than anything resembling clean lines.

Get out there if you can and have a top old Monday one and all.

Set slips past the waiting crew at 0705

 

No Mans lefthander

 

Catching a small one at the point

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge into southeast New South Wales, while a trough lies off the northern coast. This pattern is directing southeast to northeasterly winds over most coastal waters, with winds in the north expected to increase as a low pressure circulation develops with the trough later today and Tuesday. A significant change is expected on Thursday when a new high approaching from the west pushes vigorous southerly winds along the entire coast.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 24 April

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 25 April

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Sunny Sunday and waves to play on

Posted on April 22nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

There was a murmurer from the SE this morning when I climbed aloft and sure enough, there are waves. Nothing spectacularly big or anything, but as the pictures show there were shoulder plus faces along the beach and waist to maybe occasionally chest for the crew at the point. Seemed to be many people in the water, but then it is a Sunday. And School holidays. And the wind was lightly W-SW so conditions were clean. Given that the forecast is calling for SE wind and swell below a metre, that’s at least a mildly surprising situation.

Tide was low at 0750 and is currently running back in to a 1.3 m high at 1345. Weather should be mostly sunny. Air temp should go to 24° and the water has apparently bumped up to 21°.

The models are suggesting that we’ll have similar swell size to today right through to the arrival of an ECL late in the week. Forecasts for what happens when the low forms up vary from ‘not much’ to chest to head plus at the peak. But we’ll see…

Have a great Sunday everyone!

Set arrives at the point

 

Kiddies stands ope up

 

Busy but interesting

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge into southeast New South Wales, while a trough lies off the northern coast. This pattern is directing southeast to northeasterly winds over most coastal waters, with little change expected through the next few days, although a low pressure system potential developing with the trough off the north coast may bring a period of more vigorous winds.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers offshore.

Monday 23 April

Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 24 April

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending easterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

 

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