Archive for July 2018

Postcard from Cali flatness

Posted on July 30th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Apologies for the long radio silence. I’ll be back to daily reports in a week or so, but for now, a postcard from Southern California where the swell has died out in the last couple days – not that it was particularly interesting up this way, but at least it could be surfed. From the look of the latest MHL data, the situation for Sydney is pretty much the same as here, ie flat. At 0800 the MHL buoy was showing a metre of SSE off Sydney. Unfortunately, the period was an utterly gutless 4-5 seconds. Throw in the brisk 13C air temp as of 0930 and the gradually increasing westerly wind, I’d say doing something else this morning is the plan. The Bureau is talking about the swell coming up in the afternoon, but for what it’s worth, the models aren’t hopeful at all. MHL, surfline and magicseaweed are unifromly dour about the prospects of a wave until at least the end of the week. We’re not likely to fare any better here either, although tomorrow I’ll be heading out to the Channel Islands off Santa Barbara (that’s right, that’s where Al Merrick got the name for his little shaping business).
Hope you have a grand week, and if I can, I’ll pull together another postcard or two from the Islands visit.

Only the barest hint of a south line at Campus Point, Goleta, CA

Weather Situation
A series of cold front will brush the south of the state through the start of the new week, bringing W to SW winds over the waters. Later in the week a high pressure system will assert itself over the waters, shifting winds onshore.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 31 July
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending westerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 1 August
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 27th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Sunday update

This morning the Pacific is pacific, to be specific. While it’s normally terrific, right now it’s Flat!.

Lovely day ..24 max.. N/NNW wind might make some tiny NE windswell later if you’re lucky.

Have a good one.

Saturday update

Yep..beautiful morning …teensy tiny waves..you wouldn’t say surf …at places open to the South.. Only for sitting chatting on longboards SUPs etc etc if you’re keen for some paddling exercise.

Have fun.

Surf forecast issued Friday 27 July 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Beautiful weather Ordinary waves… to continue this week. Don’t shoot the messenger! OK

Saturday: pretty much flat

Sunday: might be a tiny Nor East windswell, but don’t expect much to be happening at high tide

Monday: flattish

Tuesday: might be a little something around say 1 metre or so briefly but only at South facing beaches

Wednesday: down again to not much

Thursday – Friday: maybe around 1 metre or so at places that get dead South swell.

Meanwhile, while waiting for the surf to come again, stay healthy!

TG

Up in the Sky:

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Fri Jul 27 04:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Fri Jul 27 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.633,151.333,5

Down in the Sea:

Water temp is around 17, 18

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Friday

Summary
Max 22
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Sunny.Sydney22
Sunny.Penrith23
Sunny.Liverpool22
Sunny.Terrey Hills19
Mostly sunny.Richmond23
Sunny.Parramatta22
Sunny.Campbelltown22
Sunny.Bondi20

 

Saturday 28 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 29 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 30 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Tuesday 31 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 1 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Thursday 2 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 21
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 20th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday update: There is a little swell coming in already at South facing beaches… about 1 metre or so. Not too crowded as the air is a bit chilly.  Currently 10 but apparent temp is 4.  Nice conditions ..clear blue sky, light offshore W/WNW/WSW wind, and the sun is shining on the golden cliffs.  Low tide’s around 9.  Have a good one. TG.

Surf forecast issued Friday 20 July 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Flat today and flat tomorrow before it starts to come up a little later at South facing beaches.

Not a lot in store for the coming week… so kids and parents will be happy to go back to school and work.

Saturday: flat to small to maybe around 1 metre or so at South facing beaches later

Sunday and Monday: around 1 metre or so at places facing dead South

Tuesday: flattish

Wednesday through Saturday:  small to maybe around 1 metre or so, mostly South with a bit of Eastish

TG

Up in the Sky

Looking dry down there

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Fri Jul 20 03:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Fri Jul 20 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.632,151.324,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 17, 18

Haven’t seen many whales this week… think they might be out offshore where the water’s a bit warmer

image

Tides are here

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Friday

Summary
Max 19
Becoming windy. Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Cloud clearing. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning westerly 25 to 40 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Becoming windy. Mostly sunny.Sydney19
Partly cloudy.Penrith18
Mostly sunny.Liverpool18
Mostly sunny.Terrey Hills17
Mostly sunny.Richmond18
Mostly sunny.Parramatta18
Windy. Partly cloudy.Campbelltown17
Windy. Mostly sunny.Bondi18

 

Saturday 21 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 17
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning frost in the west. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 22 July

Summary
Min 6
Max 18
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning frost in the west. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 23 July

Summary
Min 5
Max 19
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning frost in the west. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 11:20 am to 12:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Tuesday 24 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Wednesday 25 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Thursday 26 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.


TG’s Quick Thursday Report and Brief Forecast for Friday

Posted on July 19th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Thursday: flat as a tack. Nice day though.

Friday outlook: flat as a tack. Hmm well there might be a little tiny North East ripple at some places. If there’s not – it’s flat, and that’s that!

More to come tomorrow

TG


Postcards from Norway

Posted on July 17th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

About a metre of 10-sec SSE swell in Sydney this morning. 7-9 kts of NNW wind and air temps of around 7-8 degrees. Not liking your prospects for a wave, sadly.

No surf on last day in Denmark, but I did see noctilucent clouds last night – which is extremely cool for a weather nerd. Daytime temps again in the mid 20s under sunny skies in southern Scandinavia. We caught a ferry between Denmark and Norway and are now moving north. Very beautiful country indeed.

Twilight landscape in Norway

Norway lakes and mountains.

Norway countryside

Noctilucent clouds over northern Denmark. They’re at 76,000 to 85,000 m altitude & mostly only seen this far north and during summer.

Danish coast way too tiny to surf.

Denmark’s getting 42% of its juice from wind.


Postcards from the far north

Posted on July 15th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

At 0400 Sydney was seeing 2.8 metres of SSE swell at 10 seconds apart. Wind was coming from the west at 10-12 knots and air temp up at Terry Hills was a bitterly cold 2.9 degrees! Swell is predicted to fade across the day, but from the numbers I reckon you’re in with a chance through to maybe midday tomorrow…
And now some postcards

There are dozens of these fencelines running off the shore and out hundreds of metres on the mudflats.

locals were out in numbers

Looking WSW from Jutland to the North Atlantic.

First time I’ve seen the ocean in days. The tide was out, so there was probably a km or two of mudflats between the shore and the sea. The pictures were taken at a spot called Mando Island on the west coast of Denmark. It’s in the middle of the Wadden Sea National Park and the tiny 7 km sq island is reached at low tide via a narrow causeway. The pictures were taken after 9 pm with the sun still above the horizon. Wind was blowing from the west and temps were mild considering how far north we are. But the entire northern hemisphere is experiencing unprecedentedly high temperatures. Climate change continues its inexorable march…


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 13th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast, Surf Reports.

 

Saturday update:

Oh yes it’s UP!…MHL buoy 4-7 metres dead South 10+ period…Whoomping in at places open to dead South swell…and it’s freezing!

Just climbed to 10 degrees but the WSW windchill means it’s around 3 on the coast.

Not many takers out anywhere.

Stay warm!

TG.

Surf forecast issued Friday 13 July 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The outlook is for the surf to come up Saturday at places open to dead South but not be very attractive. There should still be some size Sunday but it might be more user friendly . That should continue through to Tuesday, but then drop of rapidly.
By Thursday it’ll be small to flat… before another winter swell arrives Friday from the South to start another surf cycle.
Saturday: should be around 3-4 metres at places open to dead South swell… may get something in protected corners
Sunday: 2-3 metres dead South spots
Monday: 2 – 2+metres South East
Tuesday: 2 metres or so South East
Wednesday: going down rapidly say 1 metre or so North East
Thursday: small to flat
Friday: starting to come up again from the South, in the 1-2 metre range.
Up in the Sky
MSLP Analysis for Fri Jul 13 00:00:00 2018 AUTC
Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Fri Jul 13 07:30:00 2018
Winds
https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7,i:pressure
Down in the Sea 
Water temp is a chilly 17 – 18.
image
Tides
http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Saturday 14 July

Summary
Min 6
Max 17
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of fog and frost in the west in the morning. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeast to southwesterly in the afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

 

Sunday 15 July

Summary
Min 5
Max 17
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of fog and frost in the early morning, mainly in the west. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 16 July

Summary
Min 4
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Areas of morning fog and frost in the west. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Tuesday 17 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 21
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.


No waves where I am…

Posted on July 13th, 2018 in At large.

Haven’t seen a beach in nearly a week. And the last one was the coast of Wales where the tide was so low we had to walk a kilometre just to get to the water’s edge. And there were no waves whatsoever. Since then been doing lots of moving and not much picture taking.
From here I can see you’ve got 1.4 m of 12-sec SSE in Sydney. So just on those numbers, there should be something to play with. And the good news is it looks like a little bump upward in the next 24 hours or so. Your wind was light from the NW but damn it looks chilly. Should get real windy but at least it’ll be SW. And it seems set to stay that way for you as the swell kicks up another notch or two. Your mate is jealous.
Here in the north west of Germany about 100 kms inland from the North Sea, it was in the mid-twenties under mostly blue skies. So, warmer than Sydney.
Here’s a postcard for ya. Taken on the streets of Utrecht where my daughter’s been doing a term abroad. A really great University town where bicycles dominate and the beer is good.


Quick TG Forecast for Friday

Posted on July 12th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Just a quick forecast for tomorrow… more will be done  for you tomorrow 🙂

Friday: similar to today.. there were some surprisingly sizable sets today at places like Curlie that are open to dead South swell.  May be slightly smaller tomorrow but if not – about the same .

Lots of schoolkids out there.

BoM says partly cloudy 17 max. Wind W…SW later

TG


What a difference a couple of hours makes

Posted on July 8th, 2018 in At large, Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Swell, but it’s closing out down the beach.

Waves at the point now. Clean too.


 

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