Posts in At large

Just about flat, but not quite there

Posted on March 22nd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Wave energy has cogged down another notch and the surf options have decreased from yesterday’s paltry options. The MHL buoy was showing 1.2 metres of 6-second east wind bump at 0500. At 0700 wind was light from the NW. The next tide is a low at 1110.

Looking around at Dee Why and the Collaroy Narrabeen stretch revealed glassy but very small and weak conditions everywhere. Take your floatiest surf option and a heap of patience I’d say. Biggest wave face I saw was (briefly) chest high. But mostly it was more like ankle to knee – and not consistent.

Outlook is for a southerly to kick in overnight and tomorrow morning it’s supposed to be 15-25 kts as the swell starts to come up. At least a couple of the fine-grained wind forecasts are showing the possibility of early morning offshores… so might be worth setting the alarm on the offchance…

Have a great day everyone!

The view from Collaroy Plateau this morning at 0800

Soft bumps at Northy

Momentary wave face near Gardens

Extracting a little energy at Kiddies this morning

Waiting for another knee high set at Kiddies

Heaps of seaweed at Dee Why this morning

Catching a little bump at Long Reef

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is extending a ridge to the northwest directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A cold front is expected to bring a southerly change along the south coast later today, extending to Sydney Waters Thursday morning before weakening on the north coast in the evening.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Thursday 23 March
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Friday 24 March
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.


Not a nice morning for Sydney

Posted on March 17th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Pretty much un-delightful in Sydney this morning. 20-30 kts of southerly is smashing up 2 and a bit metres of straight south junk. The weather radar is showing a heap of rain offshore and some showers along the beaches as I write this. And that’s in line with the forecast which puts the chance of more rain at 95%.
I very much doubt that anywhere has a worthy wave. And with around 25mm of the wet stuff in just the last 24 hours, I reckon the water will be vile.
The forecast has the baleful conditions last through the weekend. By the time the wind backs off (around Tuesday) the wave energy seems likely to have faded significantly as well. Sigh.

C-street sliders if you have a SUP or a really long longboard


This is the last full day for me in SoCal then it’s time to wave g’bye to sunny flatness and head to windy, rainy Sydney…

Grim morning surfwise today

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough lies off the central and northern New South Wales coast, with a small low pressure centre within the trough off the central coast. Meanwhile, a high pressure system over Tasmania is slowly moving east over the southern Tasman Sea, while a cold front slips to the south. This front has brought a strong to gale force south to southwesterly change to coastal waters. Winds will ease and tend southeast to northeasterly during the weekend as the low pressure trough off the northern coast deepens.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 35 knots, possibly reaching 40 knots at times this morning and early afternoon. Winds turning south to southeasterly 25 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres in the middle of the day.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers, heavy at times offshore in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions during the afternoon and evening for beaches exposed to the south are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 18 March
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southeasterly 25 to 30 knots turning easterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. Showers heavy at times inshore in the morning.
Sunday 19 March
Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.


Spots that like NE wind the go

Posted on March 16th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

What’s with the rain Sydney? Is it ever going to stop? Looks like the forecast was right for this morning. Wind’s NE at around 15-20 kts and swell is 2.7 metres from the NE at about 9 seconds apart. Exposed spots like Collaroy are smashed up, but protected corners, like over the bridge at North Bondi, were looking comparatively clean. Ocean temp is around 24 and next tide is a 1.6m high at 1140. Water quality has to be suss with all the rain, but Beachwatch says it’s okay north of Narrabeen.
Your correspondent will be heading home from SoCal this weekend and it doesn’t look as though there’ll be any waves before I go. Still hopelessly tiny in my part of California. And it looks as though when I get back to Sydney the wind will still be mostly heavily onshore until around mid next week. And it’ll probably still be showery…
Have a great Thursday!

wind-ripped Collaroy at 0730

Wave activity, but wind beaten at south Narra -WRL cam

Clean in the north corner at Bondi

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea with a ridge to the northwest is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales south and central coasts while a low pressure trough is deepening off the north with winds tending east to southeasterly there. A southerly change associated with a cold front crossing the Southern Ocean is expected to move up southern and central coasts during Friday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Friday 17 March
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots late morning. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. Showers heavy at times offshore in the morning and afternoon.
Saturday 18 March
Winds
Southeasterly 25 to 30 knots turning easterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.


Junky east wind swell on onshores this morning

Posted on March 15th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

This morning sees junky onshore conditions thanks to 20-25 kts of E-ENE wind and about 1.5 metres of 7 second east wind bump. For connoisseurs of onshore slop, it looks as though there are a few waist to waist and a bit faces to be found at the most exposed spots. But for anyone with anything else to do, it’s a good day to pass on surfing in Sydney.
Tomorrow might have a few more options as it’s expected that the wind will go around to the NE and that the swell will come up too. I’m not too hopeful about the quality though.

Small and onshore at Bondi too


Your correspondent has been away from the world of computers and internet as he spent a few days out in the deserts of California. There’s been a bit of rain out there and it promises to be a good wildflower season. Meanwhile, back along the coast it’s been foggy and micro. So, sadly, I don’t have any fresh surfin’ postcards to share. Who knows, maybe I’ll have something tomorrow…

Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea and a low pressure trough lies over inland New South Wales. These two systems are directing east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Another trough is expected to develop off the northern coast in the latter half of this week, with winds likely to tend east to southeasterly as a result. A southerly change associated with a Southern Ocean front will move up southern and central coastal waters on Friday.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning. Winds turning northeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.
Thursday 16 March
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday 17 March
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Today

Posted on March 11th, 2017 in At large.

Key words today

Messy whitewater from way out.  Not even pretty to look at. The Low is slowly starting to move away but today is not a day for the beach.  Needs a day or so to calm down.

3-4 metres offshore East South East 12 second, around 2 metres on beaches.

Water quality dirty. Waves washing over rock pools with incoming tide High around 8.20am.  Probably all beaches will be closed for swimming.

Need some exercise? Do some laps in your local pool.

Nice day…wind calm to light WSW coolish 17 at the moment but mostly blue sky with the clouds out to sea.

Enjoy!

 


Probably still a lot better in Byron than Sydney

Posted on March 9th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks as though the Goat’s figured it out. Byron appears to be way more interesting than Sydney surf-wise today. To compare and contrast, the Byron MHL buoy is showing 1.3 metres of 12 sec SE, while Sydney’s looking at 3 metres of the same, but wind is SSE in Sydney at 15-20 kts and SW in Byron at 15kts (reasonable for the pass I’d have thought).
From the look of the cams, Sydney surf conditions are not attractive. Wind is beating everything up, even in protected stretches and from the forecast, there appears to be no prospect of an improvement until the weekend.
The North Bondi cam framegrab below gives you a feel for the current swell as it looked around 0640…

north bondi this am

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the central Tasman Sea is slow moving. It will generate large and powerful surf conditions over much of the NSW coast over the next few days, as well as fresh to strong southerly winds over the northern half of the coast. A slow moving high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the southern half of the coast, with winds tending moderate to fresh east to southeasterly.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning south to southeasterly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 10 March
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 11 March
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon then becoming east to northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
East to southeasterly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Burgery and wind-blown so you gotta be super keen

Posted on March 8th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

At 0700 the wind was 15-20 kts from the SE. Skies were overcast and from the look of the cams, even protected corners were looking sloppy and torn up. Size at exposed spots should be easy head high on sets. Swell’s gone more SE and as of midnight average period was in the 12 sec range while heights at sea were around the 3-4 metre mark. So, no lack of energy anyway.
Surf conditions do not look red-hot for the next few days. Swell won’t be lacking, but the wind will be basically continuously awful.
There was a 1.7m high tide at 0540 and it’s now running out to the low at 1230-ish. The weather radar at 0710 was showing scattered showers heading toward Sydney from the SE, which is in line with the Bureau’s forecast. It should continue showery until Saturday when there might be a brief respite before the start coming in again. Gee, you’ve had a fair amount of the wet stuff lately!

Stormy old North Bondi this morning – not a patch on Byron!

Southern and Central California are still pretty small and Santa Barbara is flat. So, today’s pics come from north and south of where I am…

Wind and Sea in San Diego California amazingly uncrowded considering there are sort of waves

38th Avenue, Santa Cruz on a super low tide this morning

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the central Tasman Sea is slow moving. It will generate large and powerful surf conditions over much of the NSW coast over the next few days, as well as fresh to strong south to southwesterly winds over the northern half of the coast. A slow moving high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the southern half of the coast, with winds tending moderate to fresh east to southeasterly.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 9 March
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 10 March
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 4 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing


Protected corners the only option

Posted on March 7th, 2017 in At large.

0630 the view from North Bondi RSL’s cam

Hello Friends,

The marine forecast tells the tale: across the next three days the south swell’s going to be big enough to trigger dangerous surf warnings and the wind’s going to be southerly and probably not going to drop below the 15-20 kt range. As I write this a little after 0600, the wind’s 10-15 kts at North Head but 20-25 kts at the much more exposed Little Bay. Could be the odd shower about as well. From the early morning cams, it looks raw, stormy and grey everywhere. I suppose there might be the odd waist plus at Collaroy…
The MHL buoy hasn’t reported in since yesterday afternoon when it was 4 metre, 10-sec south swell. If the models are right, it won’t be fading noticeably until late in the week. And some predictions have it actually ramping up a bit on Friday – which could be good if the wind goes more SW. It basically looks like lots of wind and swell this week and then a decline to smaller for next week.

Santa Barbara’s winter swell prospects have dimmed with the warming weather. Right now it looks like I’ll be lucky to get in the water this week. And next week doesn’t look any better. So, no fresh postcards I’m afraid.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system off the coast is gradually moving eastward. This will generate strong south to southwesterly winds over most of the NSW coast during the next day or two, as well as large and powerful surf conditions. Winds will moderate and gradually turn south to southeasterly during today and Wednesday as the low moves over to the northeastern Tasman Sea and a high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge to the NSW coast.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 metres, tending southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 8 March
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 9 March
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


SW wind and swell on tap

Posted on March 6th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
As of 0620 wind was SW 15-20 kts at North Head. The 0300 MHL data showed 3.8 metres of 9-sec SSE swell. Tide’s currently dropping to the low at 1000 and weather was cloudy with a few mainly light showers out to sea.
The Bureau says the wind’ll get into the 25-30 kt range later.
From the shape of this morning’s forecast models it looks as though Sydney’s facing a week of big waves out’ve the south to SSE, but with a fair amount of south to SSW wind and showery skies. Toward the end of the week the dominant swell direction could get a bit more east but the winds are shaping to not drop much below the 15 kt mark across the period, plus they’ll stay basically from the south to SSW.
Scanning the cams at first light revealed clean conditions at protected spots, but not much in the way of wave activity. Exposed spots looked more wind-affected but into the chest plus range but pretty close together.

North Bondi this morning at 0640

Weather Situation
A low pressure system off the south coast is gradually moving eastward. This will generate strong to gale force south to southwesterly winds over most of the NSW coast during the next day or two, as well as large and powerful surf conditions. Winds will moderate and gradually turn south to southeasterly during Tuesday and Wednesday as the low moves over to the northeastern Tasman Sea and a high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge to the NSW coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
3 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 7 March
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres, tending southeasterly 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 8 March
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers


Rainy old Sydney with onshores and no waves

Posted on March 3rd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
At 0520 it did not look like a great surf day coming up for Sydney. The rain continues with 25-30mm being predicted across the coming 24 hours. Wind was a light southerly during the pre-dawn hours and the last report on swell from the MHL buoy was showing about a metre of 8 sec south bump. Wind’s expected to pick up later and so’s the swell. Unfortunately it looks to me as though it’s not going to be much good until around Sunday when the wind’s expected to go around more to the SW. Beyond that, next week is shaping to be mostly southerly, but with solid swell.
Meanwhile SoCal’s still waiting for a sign of swell. I’m off on a trip up to Santa Cruz later today (but not for surf), so today’s snap is again from that little surf town’s prime swell magnet, Steamer Lane.

All three sections working at Steamer Lane this morning


 

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