Posts in At large

Looking like dropping fast for Sydney

Posted on January 19th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

After four days of 3m+ swell, it looks as though Sydney is going to see a steady decline in energy levels across the day. As of midnight the MHL buoy was showing 1.5 m at 8 sec. There could still be some bigger sets in the mix, but by the time the dawn patrol paddles out, I’d guess those will be few and far between. Tide was low at 0405 and will be back to a deepish 1.75 m at 1035. Wind was out of the north around 5 kts at 0520. It’ll gradually track around to the NE by this afternoon.

If I were in Sydney and looking at the 29°C later, I’d be heading down to the beach for a cooling splash early. My guess is that magnet spots should be in the chest plus range with maybe one or two head pluses in the morning session. So definitely fun.

As for the week ahead, well, may I direct your attention to the Goat’s latest surf forecast.

Surf outlook here is also on the marginal side. After four days of solid swell, I’m not sure there’ll be much in the tank when I go for a look at prospects in a few hours… if I spot anything, I’ll try to get a postcard or two to share. Can’t really complain though. Where I surfed there were never more than a dozen people in the water at any one time. Plus the water was unusually warm (15°C) for winter time. Air temps have been crazy too – basically t-shirt weather during the day.

Have a great day one and all!

Swell picture for this morning…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system just off the New South Wales coast is expected to remain near-stationary during the next few days, maintaining generally southerly winds along the northern coast and northerly winds along the southern coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 20 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 21 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Postcards from Cali-No. 2

Posted on January 12th, 2018 in At large.

 

Hello Friends,

A few snaps for you from Santa Barbara and thereabouts…

(above) From Surfline.com’s California Street, Ventura cam at dusk today. Very little showing in the way of swell along the southern California coast. We’re hoping for a gradual improvement tomorrow…

With all roads between Santa Barbara and Ventura closed, the local tourist ferry operators who usually take people on day trips to the Channel Islands are running boatloads of commuters up and down the coast. It takes about 1:30 hrs to go from Ventura to Santa Barbara. Once the Freeway is opened on Monday (we hope) the trips will stop. That breakwater in the background is the one at Santa Barbara where the Kirra-esque Sandspit take off is (when there’s swell!)

Just an odd looking frame of my board shooting into the air at the end of a wave. I surfed yesterday at Campus Point in Santa Barbara. Waves were super gutless and on this occasion I just let the board sink until it popped up again.

My shadow self-portrait on a knee high dribbler at Campus. Water about 15C, air 20C.

More tomorrow I hope


Postcards from Cali: crazy weather

Posted on January 10th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Diamond Head and rainbow

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Let’s get the Sydney surf situation taken care of before the postcards…

At 0950 there was a light and steady 7-9 kt SSE breeze knocking the top off another day of gutless and tiny wind bump. That said, it does appear from the cams that it’s a touch bigger (ankle to waist) than when I last saw it. If you have to miss it, you aren’t missing much of anything. Judging from the forecast models, the situation should stumble along more or less as it is until Friday when there might be a little south pulse with NE wind combo.

The long range models are showing prospects for an intense south swell event, but it’ll likely be smashed by the wind (also south) for a couple days before possibly settling down into some fun conditions mid next week.

The flight from Oz to the US west coast involved a brief stop in Honolulu, so I can report that there was very little if anything showing on the town side. Did get a nice picture of Diamond Head and a rainbow as we climbed out again for the leg to LA.

Got into California after dark so didn’t get a look at the (non) surf situation until yesterday. No hope of a wave sadly. And the same again today (see below).

California had it’s first significant rain event in 300 days last night. We saw 75-100 mm and because of the terrible fires of a couple of weeks ago, there’s nothing on the hillsides to stop the water from carrying huge amounts of mud and debris down onto the coastal plain. As I write this the 101 Freeway that runs along the coast near where the fires were is still closed from all the stuff coming off the hills and mountains. It’s a really big deal and we’re still waiting to hear what sort of death toll there’s been. 8 people were killed by mudslides in the Montecito area just south of Santa Barbara – and there may be more. Helicopters have been flying over our place all day as they help with the rescue efforts. Scary stuff.

Hope you’re staying safe and well!

 

Weather Situation

A trough along the mid north coast is slowly moving northward, with northerly winds shifting southerly in its wake. The trough is expected to stall on the far north coast on Thursday and then dissipate, as a high pressure system moves east over the southern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge to the coast. This will cause winds to shift north to northeasterly throughout by Friday, freshening ahead of the next front, which will bring a vigorous southerly change to the coast during the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 11 January

Winds
East to southeasterly below 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 12 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Barely anything and mostly flat

Posted on January 6th, 2018 in At large.

Chasing tiny bumps on low tide at Northy 0620          .

Hello Friends,

Low tide early and light NE breeze ruffling the surface for the dawn patrol. The only place I saw a wave ridden was at Northy where, as the pic above shows, it was struggling to make the knee high mark. As the tide comes in to a 1.8 m high at 1230, the wind will ramp up and so it just may be possible to find a fat little bump somewhere. However, you’ll really need to dial down your expectations for anything beyond barely catchable dribble.

As of 0400 the MHL buoy was showing a metre of sub-6 sec SSE chop. And it looks as though the microscopic conditions prevail up and down the entire East Coast.

We’re in for an absolute stinker tomorrow but there might be a bit more NE wind chop to chase for the early. It’s set to go SE in the afternoon – which ought to help with the heat, but won’t do the tiny surf any favours.

From the look of the models, next week is going to be really small to flat with only short period and small wind chop.  One of the more hopeful data interpretations is showing some slight hope for south magnets on Wednesday morning. Hope for your sake that it plays out that way. I’ll of course be looking for a wave in southern California where at the moment it’s also really small – and cold. Postcards to come!

Have a great Saturday everyone!

 

South Narra nothin’

.

Marquesas micro bumps

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At least he’s getting some exercise – near the pole 0630

.

All’s quiet at Dee Why

.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A low pressure trough is expected to bring a southerly change to the southern half of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 7 January

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 8 January

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending northwest to northeasterly during the morning then tending northeast to southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Glassy and small early

Posted on December 30th, 2017 in At large.

Right equipment for a soft little peak at the Pole

South Narrabeen shorey wave of the day 0625

Fat slow rollers trickle into Northy 0625

Weak little lines at Kiddies 0630

Hello Friends,

It was raining lightly and the ocean was glassy when I checked the situation at 0630. There were little waves, but they looked weak, fat and slow – which figures given the 1.7 m high tide and the 7-8 sec 1.6 m north wind swell. Size looked to be in the knee to waist range, but rides fizzled out pretty quickly after the take off. On the plus side, nowhere was terribly crowded.

The wind should pick up soon according to the Bureau. It’s due to be 15-20 kts from the N-NW before slacking off around lunchtime ahead of a 15-20 kt SE change.

Outlook for tomorrow is for southerly conditions early with a small bump in swell size from the south, but the period will be short, so I’m not expecting anything too exciting. Wind is due to go NE by lunch time.

I’m not overly hopeful about the long range outlook. The swell models are not swell this morning. If they’re right, we’re staring down another week of ultra tiny weak to flat conditions.

Water’s nice though. 22°C according to Beachwatch. So, at least it’s nice for a swim.

Have a top old Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near New Zealand with a ridge to the northwest is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A a cold front/trough will bring south to southeasterly change along the south coast on Saturday morning, extending to the central coast in the evening and to the far north coast overnight. Winds will turn back to the north northeast during Sunday, ahead of a another southerly change expected on the south coast on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.

Sunday 31 December

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning east to northeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Monday 1 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting south to southwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Little waves to be had for the early

Posted on December 23rd, 2017 in At large.

Near the Pole at 0645

Hello Friends,

If you were in the right spot around 0700 this morning, you could get a waist plus set wave – but you need to be patient because the wait between rideable sets was impressive. Tide was low at 0545 and will be back to a 1.6 m high at 1210. The MHL buoy was detecting 1.3 metres of 8-sec SSE bump at 0500 and wind was coming lightly from the north.

As the day warms up to the toasty 29 high, the wind will swing to the NE and build to a summery 15-20 kts by high tide. So get in ASAP I’d say – and be patient.

Christmas eve looks like being hotter and smaller, but there seems to be some hope for a south pulse on Christmas day – although the wind’ll be southerly and it’ll be rainy… so, there is that.

As for the week ahead, well, the models are all saying there should be some bumps from the SE but it’ll be weak, short period stuff in the knee to waist range.

Have a great Saturday one and all!

 

Dee Why beach set activity at 0640

Optimists at the point 0645

Lotsa folk at the north end of the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch

Really small, but not flat

The only person in the water from south of Marquesas

Weather Situation

A ridge of high pressure extends along the Queensland coast from a high over the Tasman Sea. East to northeast winds today ahead of a strong and gusty southerly change expected on the south and central coasts on Sunday, extending to the north coast on Monday. Another high centre is expected to move over Tasmania on Monday then to the southern Tasman Sea on Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly early in the morning then tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 24 December

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southeast to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon or evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, rising 2 to 2.5 metres in the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. 60% chance of showers in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore in the afternoon.

Monday 25 December

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots tending east to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Curly shories snaps

Posted on December 18th, 2017 in At large.

Had to make a run to Manly this morning right on high tide and on the way back grabbed a couple snaps at south Curly where a couple of kids were jagging 2-3 second rides in the tiny shories.

Finding a moment of energy a few metres from the sand, south Curly, 0900

South Curly high tide shories


So-so Saturday

Posted on December 9th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The odd sunny break as Saturday got started. Wind kept going all night but as of 0630 it was 7-8 kts from the SE at North Head – it should pick up soon though. Tide was dropping to the 0.57 m low at 0730 (high is 1.7 m at 1345 and out at sea the 0400 report from the MHL buoy showed 2 metres of 9-sec SSE swell.

As you can see from the pics (click to see full size) the steady south breeze was chopping up the waist to chest high sets from 0630. Wave quality was not too spectacular but it did seem to be reasonably consistent for those keen types willing to put up with the junky conditions.

Outlook for tomorrow seems to be okay for the dawn patrol when wind should be light. But  as the morning goes along the east to SE breeze will pick up before going NE in the afternoon. The general energy trend is for the primary swell energy to be coming from the east – and fading across the day.

Right now Monday and Tuesday are not looking too hopeful for waves. The models tell us to expect short period junk and onshores peaking around the 20 kt mark in the afternoons. There does seem to be some hope of a slight improvement to wave heights at sea late in the week, but periods are forecast to be in the choppy 6-8 second range. So, very much a summery outlook.

Have yourself a great Saturday one and all!

Weather Situation

Southerly winds will gradually tend southeast to northeast this weekend as a weak high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. This high is expected to be the dominant feature in the region over the following days, although a weak trough is likely to briefly affect southern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Sunday 10 December

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 11 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Late morning update

Posted on December 6th, 2017 in At large.

Tide swamping it this morning. Pick of the spots looked like North Steyne, but there were waves at the Bower, south Steyne, Queenscliff, DY point, DY beach, south Narrabeen and North Narrabeen.

North Narra

North Narra

Kiddies, Dee Why

Gardens

Tea Gardens looking slabby 1000

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

Bower

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)


NE wind swell at magnets this morning

Posted on December 2nd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The N-NE’r blew hard until the late last night and at first light this morning it was already starting its steady build toward 20-25 kts later today. The Bureau says it’ll be northerly once it reaches full strength, so not as good as NE for pushing up the wind swell, but then maybe a little smoother in the corners. The MHL data for Sydney hadn’t updated since yesterday afternoon when I checked it at 0700, but I reckon it’s probably around the 2 metre mark out at sea. Inshore where we care about it wave faces look to be in the knee to waist range at Dee Why and closer to waist to chest at North Narrabeen. Quality didn’t look too bad early, although the incoming tide (it’s a 1.8 m high at 0745) was making it pretty soft and fat looking.
While the wind isn’t likely to be doing it any big favours this afternoon, if you’re keen there should be energy. And tomorrow’s forecast of NW early could mean some pretty fun waves for the early. I’m still sidelined, but I’ll be at Ocean Care Day in Manly on Sunday, so I should be able to fire a few updates on surf conditions during the day.
Looking at the week ahead… could be some activity of interest toward midweek when there’s a possibility of potentially fun east swell. The front half of the week is shaping to be southerly with reasonable size but unreasonable wind levels.
With luck we should have a steady supply of waist to chest or even head high energy off and on across the coming week.
Have a great Saturday everyone!

Barely there bumps at Dee Why 0630

You’d want to be keen at south Narrabeen 0620

Fat and full but waist high on sets north of the Pole

Northy amplifying the NE wind swell at 0620

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system near New Zealand with a ridge to the northwest is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds will increase today ahead of a southerly change expected on the south coast on Sunday. and extending to the north coast during Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Sunday 3 December

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds shifting southeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers in the evening.

Monday 4 December

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

 

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