Posts in At large

Smooth but tiny early

Posted on April 21st, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Masses of grey cloud off to the south when I checked conditions around 0630 but the forecast south wind hadn’t yet arrived and the ocean was looking smooth and clean. It won’t last though because the forecast is calling for 10-15 kts of s-se later.  Swell at 0500 was coming from the SSE at 13 seconds apart but only a metre out at sea. As the pictures show, it’s not making much of an impression on our beaches. Sets at magnet spots were struggling to get above the knee high mark. And they were pretty few and far between.

Tide was low at 0625 and is now heading to a 1.37 m high at 1235. We should see a high around 24° and water has cooled to 20°.

The MHL’s modelling is projecting surf conditions to bump along at about the current intensity for at least another 2-3 days. But thereafter the models are starting to look rather interesting, particularly as we get toward Thursday-Friday. The swell looks interesting I should say, because the current projections indicate a feisty ECL in close to the coast (ie blasting wind and showery skies).

Have yourself a top old Saturday one and all!

 

 

Optimist wading out at south Narrabeen 0645

 

All’s quiet at Narrabeen

 

Saturday sunrise

 

No man’s

 

Northy producing knee to waist high bumps at 0640

 

Butterbox

 

Dee Why point with one acolyte waiting hopefully for a bump

 

No Mans just barely doing it 

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Saturday 21 April 2018.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge into southeast New South Wales, while a trough lies just off the northern coast. This pattern is bringing southeast to northeasterly winds to most coastal areas, with little change expected through the next few days.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots offshore during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Sunday 22 April

Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 23 April

Winds
Westerly about 10 knots becoming northeasterly around midday.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Southerly morning

Posted on April 17th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Saw Curly and then Dee Why around 0900-ish this morning. The sky was darkening and the south wind was bumping it up, but there are definitely head plus sets coming in. Problem is that they seemed to be really slow and gutless. THe HML buoy was showing 12 seconds, so not sure what’s going on. Maybe it’s the 1.65 m high tide at 0900…
Hardly anyone in the water at south Curly, but it looked like a fair amount of work for slow and sloppy overhead wave faces. 20+ in the water at the point and a few scattered up the beach from there at Dee Why. Again, choppy, lumpy and ponderous is how I’d describe it.
Swell is set to build to 3 metres out at sea and the wind should be 15-25 kts from the S-SW. So not utterly hopeless if you’re keen.
Tomorrow the wind is supposed to be more SE-NE across the day, but not blowing as hard as the forecast for today.
Swell ought to stick around too and then it declines on Thursday while wind goes north. Right now from Friday onward into the front half of next week looks like being really small to flat on most of the models.
Have yourself a grand Tuesday one and all!

Bomb set at point

Bump showing on the bombies at 0910

Moment of suck up speed

Wind south at south Curly

Sizable but slow sets at south Curly

Trying to keep it going at the point


Lake like Saturday morning

Posted on April 14th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

At daybreak, as the tide was approaching the 1.6 m high at 0700 and the wind was coming steadily from the NW at 8-10 kts, the ocean was smooth inshore. Smooth and just about perfectly flat between the tiny sets. Out at sea there was a sub-metre sized NE bump. Skies were overcast and the temperature was an alarming for mid-April 24°. We’re set to reach 31° as the skies clear later.

Along the beaches conditions were very clean and wave faces on the sets were in the knee to thigh high range. There were a fair number of folk in the water up around North Narrabeen but it was unsurfably flat south of there. Around the corner at the Longy to Dee Why stretch, there were equally tiny conditions and the people in the water were clustered in a zone from roughly No Mans to a little north of the lagoon.

Tomorrow’s likely to be even smaller and right now it looks as though the energy won’t be coming back until midweek according to most, but not all, of the swell models. So maybe take the mal for a micro wave this morning and then keep an eye on it, but know that you’re not going to miss anything spectacular.

Have a top old Saturday and stay in touch, because flat or not, I’ll be checking it out for you every morning.

Sauntering at south Narrabeen

 

Near the pole at 0640

 

Near the pole 0640

 

Narrabeen overview

 

Fair number of hopefuls around Northy this morning

Weather Situation

Northwesterly winds along the New South Wales coast will turn vigorous westerly later Saturday and early Sunday in a wake of cold front with an associated low to the south moving east across the southern Tasman Sea. Winds will tend southwest to southeasterly during Tuesday as a high pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea extending a ridge along the coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
60% chance of showers early this morning. A thunderstorm likely early this morning. Sunny afternoon.

Sunday 15 April

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 16 April

Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Sunny.

Posted on April 12th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Swell has dropped a fair amount overnight, but there are definitely chest plus sets at the more focused locations. Wind was light north early but will pick up later to 15-20 kts. Swell was around the 1.5 metre mark at 12 seconds from the SE and there was some smaller NE component as well. Tide was a 1.56 m high at 0535 and is now heading to a 0.51 low at midday. It should be sunny all day and reach a high of 33. UV is a factor from 0910 to 1430. Water is 23.
Swell should hold through the day, although it will likely continue the downward trned and tomorrow may possibly still offer a few fun ones for the morning session. The Goat will be along later with thoughts about the weekend and beyond, so I’ll be keen to see his take as always. My reading of the runes is that we’re in for a stretch of minor conditions until about midweek when there could be another pulse filling in…
Have a great Thursday everyone!

Longy 0715

Longy 0715

Nothing really happening at the point

Longy

Kiddies/No Mans

Crunch!

Small stuff at Northy 0705

Vicious looking shories at south Narra 0705


Knee to waist and a bit messy

Posted on April 7th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Rather junky and bumpy everywhere this morning thanks to a light but steady SE-ESE breeze all night. Surf size is knee to waist and maybe a bit on the biggest ones. The MHL buoy was picking up 1.5 m of 11 second south to SSE swell but I have to say that it looked pretty soft and weak everywhere. Definitely marginal conditions, but equally definitely not flat. This morning’s low tide was a 0.65m at 0725 and it’ll come into a moderate 1.2 m high at 1320.

Weather should be mostly sunny with a high of 28°. Ocean’s on 22° and all beaches are clean according to Beachwatch.

Wind will go around to the NE later today, so that may possibly improve things a bit in the north corners.

Outlook for tomorrow and Monday is a bit better than today with more favourable winds and a steady supply of small but more easterly swell. There seems to be some prospect of better than average conditions in the back half of the week with some models calling for light north wind and 2m, 14s SE swell….

Shout out to any ocean swimmers who may not have heard, the Newport to Avalon Ocean Around the Bends swim is on tomorrow.

Have a great Saturday everyone!

Near the Pole 0630

 

Longy bomb set

 

Rare catchable one at the point 0630

 

No Mans

 

Northy crew 0620

 

Kiddies bumpy and soft

 

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards southeast Queensland New South Wales. This high will direct east to northeast winds over most of the New South Wales coast this weekend, apart from a brief southerly change along the southern coast overnight. On Monday a low pressure system will move east across the southern Tasman Sea, while the high remains over the the northern Tasman. A trough associated with this low is forecast to bring a second southerly change, moving through the southern and central coast on Monday and the north coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots tending north to northeasterly to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 25 knots inshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 8 April

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 9 April

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny

SSE Saturday

Posted on March 31st, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The SSE wind was blowing 15-20 kts from before sunrise. It was overcast and out at sea the MHL buoy was seeing 1.7 metres of 9-sec bump from the SSE (160°). Tide was building to a swampy 1.8 m at 0905. And there’s a 40% chance of a shower. Lovely.
Outlook broadly speaking is for the energy levels to stay around their current intensity through to Thursday when some of the models are showing a faint uptick from the east along with light winds early.
Ah well, have a great Saturday anyway and keep on smilin’
 

A few in the water at Northy as of 0700

Far north Collaroy set

The overview, not great.

One person at the point as of 0700

Not busy at Kiddies

Lay of the land at Dee Why this morning

Sorta plausible maybe inside at Whiterock


 

Weather Situation

Southeast to northeast winds are expected to affect most of the state’s waters today with a ridge extending to the northern New South Wales coast from a high near New Zealand and an almost stationary trough lying across the coast near Seal Rocks. The trough weakens on Sunday as the ridge becomes more predominant, bringing east to northeasterly winds to much of the coast. A weak southerly change is expected along southern parts of the coast later Sunday, before a stronger southerly change, associated with a cold front moving through Bass Strait, affects southern and central parts of the coast during Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Sunday 1 April

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 2 April

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

South Narra and Longy this morning

Posted on March 30th, 2018 in At large.

Wind starting to chew up the fat and small conditions by 0930 when I dropped by south Narra and Longy for a look. Here’s what I saw…

South Narrabeen 0915

South Narrabeen

South Narrabeen

South Narrabeen

Longy 0930

Longy 0930

Longy 0930


Fat and full for the early, maybe later

Posted on March 28th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Went down to the beach to see if I could grab a few snaps of some friends playing in the shories near Kiddies.  There are little waves (at 0700 the MHL buoy was showing 1.6 metres from the ESE at 11 seconds) but the 1.76 m high tide at 0635 was killing it. Waves were fat and floppy out the back and only showed their power when they finally expired with a crash on the sand. Wind was light and offshore, but as the tide drops and the day goes along, it should settle around to a 10-15 kt NEr.

It’s set to be sunny all day as we go to a high of 28°. Water is a balmy 23° and Beachwatch says it’s clean again too.

So maybe mid-tide there’ll start to be something of interest at magnets.

The trend is for energy levels to hold at about the current intensity today and then to possibly nudge up a little on Thursday and Friday.

Have a great Wednesday and keep on smilin’!

 

South of Carparks at Northy

Brief moment of energy at Dee Why beach 0740

Dee Why point just barely producing rideable bumps at 0750

Too fat and full and floppy to attract many takers, but the odd moment at Northy


Saturday surfing day

Posted on March 24th, 2018 in At large.

The Pole 0700

Mysterious goings-on off Narrabeen

Northy featuring a healty crew at 0700

Crunchy conditions near Marquesas


Hello Friends,

Swell is out of the east at 10 seconds with a height at sea of 2 metres, wind was light early but going NE later. Going for a high of 27 ° and ocean is  24°. Tide is dropping to low at 0840 then flooding back into the high at 1445 – by which time the wind should be up to full strength.

Looked very busy early, which isn’t too surprising given the last few days of anti-surfing conditions. Oh and the weekend too.

Exposed spots were delivering set wave faces into the head plus range, but mostly it was chest to shoulder-ish on sets and puny between.

Swell is on the fade, but if the modelling is right we should have something for the early tomorrow (assuming the north wind doesn’t get started before dawn) and then we’re into marginal but not flat territory across the front half of the week. From late Weds onward, it currently looks as though the energy levels could come back up into the waist to shoulder range, depending on when and where etc.

Have a top old Saturday!

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system to the south of the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge northwards, while a low pressure trough lies off the New South Wales central and north coasts. This trough is expected to weaken today as the high moves further east with east to northeasterly winds freshening along the New South Wales coast. Northerly winds will strengthen on Sunday ahead of the passage of a frontal system about southern and central parts of the coast on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Sunday 25 March

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 26 March

Winds
North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots at first, turning west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres later.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Junk specialists only this morning

Posted on March 23rd, 2018 in At large.

Queenscliff looking dire 0800

Sort of something at the Bower

Dee Why point – no takers

North of Kiddies 0825

Hello Friends,

Well, as the pictures show, there is swell, but surface conditions are terrible thanks to a steady 10-15 kts of ESE wind. I saw a few people in the water in the corner at Manly, a couple more out at the Bower and then nobody at Curly or the Dee Why to Longy stretch. Sets at exposed locations would have been head and a bit on the faces. We’ve had a bit of rain in the last 48 hours, but Beachwatch’s only water quality warning this morning was a caution for Longy and Northy due to the lagoons being open.

Wind should stay at about the current intensity all day, but as the forecast indicates, turn NE late. I suppose there might be a slight chance of an improvement in north corners, but I wouldn’t be pinning too much hope on that particular prospect.

The Goat dropped his forecast yesterday, so I invite you to partake of his wisdom as you contemplate the weekend prospects. And of course, as usual, your correspondent will be offering a few surfly thoughts and observations tomorrow morning around 0730 on ABC 702 .

Have yourself a top old Friday and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system southeast of Tasmania is extending a ridge to the north and a low pressure trough lies off the New South Wales central and north coasts. East to southeasterly winds will turn east to northeasterly during Friday as the high moves towards New Zealand strengthening a ridge to the northwest and the trough weakens.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Saturday 24 March

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northerly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Sunday 25 March

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

 

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