Posts in At large

Faint hopes but not flat everywhere

Posted on January 19th, 2019 in At large.

Thunderous action at Long Reef

Lots of folks out for a surf at Dee Why

Hello Friends,
Light west breeze early with a very small east-ish looking wind bump. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.2 metres of 5 sec chop from 106° and tide was coming into a 1.82 metre high at 0722. There were little knee plus faces south of about Carparks at Northy and down toward south Narrabeen. It was pretty inconsistent looking and weak. Around the corner at the Longy to Dee Why stretch a few bods were waiting hopefully for the odd fluffy ankle snapper at the north end. There were more folks in the water at the Dee Why end, but it was only slightly bigger than Longy.
Outlook is not too exciting for the rest of the weekend. If the models are right, it’ll be about like it is now or even smaller over the next 4-5 days but there might be a bump late in the week. Unfortunately if the waves do push up, it looks like being strong onshores that cause the increase.
Have a top old Saturday everyone!

Plausible bumps at south Narrabeen

A few bumps from south of Northy

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northwest, directing north to northeasterly winds over the northern New South Wales coast. A trough will bring a southerly change to southern waters this morning, moving through central areas during the day as the Tasman high weakens. This change may just reach the northern border on Sunday before decaying as a new high shifts from the Bight to the Tasman Sea later Sunday and Monday, bringing a return to generally northerly winds. The new high is expected to remain dominant until another trough arrives mid-week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots, tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre by evening.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 20 January
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 21 January
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Glassy and little but not flat

Posted on January 12th, 2019 in At large.

Out for a paddle at south Narrabeen 0630

Surfable little waves at North Narrabeen 0630

Bomb set hits No Mans 0630

Patiently waiting for something at the point

Checking out the weak and small conditions at Longy

Butterbox bracketed by fishers

Hello Friends,
Sunny, light NW breeze and little tiny vaguely SE bumps were rolling in at 0630 (the MHL buoy was seeing 1.2 m at 10 sec from 158°). If you figure on knee to waist you’ll be in the ballpark on size. Important to get in sooner rather than later because the wind is coming up from the north this morning and going NE later in the afternoon.
Tide was low at 0645 and will be back to high at 1.53 m. We’re headed to a high of 31C along the coast. Water is currently 20C.
We’re due for a south change tomorrow, but there doesn’t seem to be any real prospect of an improvement to the surf situation. The models show a gradual but small increase as we get toward mid-week.
Have a top old Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation
A weakening high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, generating a northeasterly flow over New South Wales waters. A trough is expected to bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast later today and Sunday. This trough will stall and weaken later Sunday as a new high pressure system moves to the southern Tasman Sea and restores a generally east to northeasterly flow again from Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore during the morning, turning northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 13 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending southerly 15 to 25 knots before dawn then tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 14 January
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


High tide early, hot later

Posted on January 5th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Your correspondent finds himself in lovely Oberon, NSW this morning under clear skies with a mild (for now) NW breeze. Through the magic of the internet and via a helpful text from the Goat, I can see that Sydney is as expected – just barely surfable at NE magnets with light wind and fat conditions thanks to the deepish 1.76 m high tide at 0844. Water, sayeth the Goat, has a distinct chill (he reckons around 19). That should be refreshing for all those flocking to the shore to beat the expected 36C high.
A late south change should rattle through the Sydney region around 1700.
Have a top old Saturday one and all!


Dumpy and small but possible to catch bumps

Posted on January 3rd, 2019 in At large.

2-second ride at North Curly 0620

Weak and dumpy North Curly at 0625

The early risers

Maybe you could catch one at the point, but probably not… 0630

Tearing one up at Kiddies, 0630


Hello Friends,
Out and about early this morning, so had a chance to stop by Curly and Dee Why for close up examination. There were a few people in the water at Curly, but the high tide and very weak NE wind bump were making it hard to catch anything. Wave faces were chest high on the bigger ones, but they were so gutless you mostly couldn’t get into them – and if you did, they fizzled out a few seconds later. Around at Dee Why the early risers were out in reasonable numbers. A few were in the water, but as at Curly, the energy levels were very low and if you had anything less than a SUP it was an open question as to whether or not you’d manage a takeoff. Atmosphere was hazy to the point of being misty at Curl Curl, while Dee Why was clearer.
The wind was negligible early, but it’ll come up from the NE later this morning and be 15-20 kts by mid-afternoon. Swell energy doesn’t look like improving significantly to me, but let’s see what the Goat thinks when he rolls out his first 2019 forecast later today…
Have yourself a great Thursday everyone!

Classic mammatus clouds yesterday afternoon

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Thursday 3 January 2019.

Weather Situation
A stationary high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards southeast Queensland, while a weak trough lingers in the vicinity of the Sydney and Illawarra coasts. This pattern is maintaining a fresh northerly wind regime over the northern waters, with weaker south to southeasterlies about southern parts. The trough is expected to dissipate later today, resulting in north to northeasterly winds extending along the entire coast. Another trough looks set to affect the far south coast on Saturday, and extend to central parts of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 4 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Saturday 5 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Gorgeous morning along the beaches

Posted on December 24th, 2018 in At large.

South Curly at 0815, full but still fun looking

Dee Why point swamped by the high tide

Rather busy at Kiddies 0820

Very fat at Kiddies

Hello Friends,

What a stunning start to Christmas eve. Light breezes, sunny skies, mild temps and, despite a big high tide, some waves to go with it. I checked Curly and Dee Why this morning and can report that as of 0820-0830, the former was the pick. Waves at south Curly were into the chest range on sets, while around at Dee Why it was struggling to make waist high at Kiddies. Didn’t really study the Longy end, but I’d guess it would be maybe a touch better.

Wind was offshore when I looked and the Bureau tells us it should stay reasonably benign all morning before turning light NE in the afternoon. The MHL buoy was showing 1.4 m at 8 seconds from 152-154° (SSE) as of 0600.

Tide is coming into a very swampy 2.02 m at 1010. It’ll then drain rapidly away to a 0.15 m low at 1650. Weather is set to be toasty and sunny all week with temps along the coast near the 30 mark from tomorrow through to next weekend.

Looking at the surf prospects, I see no reason to update yesterday’s call for standard issue summer conditions, ie NE wind building up in the afternoons and clean but potentially tide-affected knee to waist high short period wind bumps for the early sessions.

Have a great Monday!


Submit a summer surf picture

Posted on December 15th, 2018 in At large.

On ABC radio this morning I invited folks to send in pictures of the waves from up and down the NSW coast. I’m currently working on the nuts and bolts, so for now if you’re super keen, send your pics to RealSurfNSW [at symbol] gmail [dot] com!

Don


Might be a wave

Posted on December 6th, 2018 in At large.

Longy Weds arvo maybe again today?

Hello Friends,
Wave energy looks to have faded overnight, but there should still be some soft waist plus wind bumps around at places with easterly exposure. The MHL data for Sydney hasn’t updated since yesterday but late in the afternoon when I walked down for a look (busted clavicle means no driving or pushie riding) there were actually fun looking little things at Longy. It was scrappy and weak, but rideable, and looking at the cam for Curly, I can believe there might be something again.
Tide is deep again – 1.77 m – at 0825. So, expect fatness along with the weakness. Wind was light east early but it will swing NE and pick up into the 15-25 kt range this afternoon.
Outlook is for short period wind bump from the NE for the next week at least. Typical summer conditions really.
Have a good Thursday and keep on smilin’

Weather Situation

A high centred over eastern Bass Strait directs south to southeast winds along the coast. As the high shifts east into the Tasman Sea over the next day or so winds will tend north to northeasterly and become fresh to strong as a trough approaches from the west.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning and reaching up to 25 knots at times this afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 7 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 8 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

 


Not too appetizing

Posted on December 5th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

As of 0800 we had  8-13 kts of ESE wind at North Head. The MHL buoy off Sydney was detecting 2.2 metres of dead south swell at 11 seconds. So, there should be something at south magnets, but the onshore conditions and a deep 1.7 m high tide at 0740 will mean lumpy, bumpy waist and a bit sets with the odd (maybe) bigger one. Skies are cloudy as I write this and there’s a 40% chance of a shower inland and 20% out along the coast. UV is 12, so hats and sunscreen on from now until 1700. Beachwatch says water is 19.

Today’s swell modelling is not all that exciting for our part of the world. Both the ECM and Wavewatch models project a change in swell regime from south to east around Thursday, but while the size at sea is predicted to hang around the metre mark, the periods are expected to be in the 5-7 second range (ie chop).

Oh well. It is summer after all.

Have a great Wednesday everyone!

Weather Situation

A high centred over eastern Bass Strait directs south to southeast winds along the coast. As the high shifts east into the Tasman Sea over the next day or so winds will tend north to northeasterly before increasing fresh to strong on Friday and Saturday as a trough approaches from the west.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy morning, mostly sunny afternoon.

Thursday 6 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 7 December

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Bike helmets are good

Posted on December 4th, 2018 in At large.

My helmet almost certainly prevented a very serious head injury…

Hello Friends,

Missed yesterday’s report thanks to some unplesantness involving my pushie.

On Sunday morning I crashed. According to my Strava app, I was doing 40 kph coming down a hill in Harbord – and then  I abruptly wasn’t. I have no memory of the crash. But my body and helmet tell the story. Along with a concussion, I removed myself from the lineup for a couple of months thanks to a busted clavicle. When I came to, I was near the beach parking lot adjacent to Pilu. There was nobody with me as I had apparently climbed back on my bike after the crash and wobbled a good block or so before starting to store memories again. Yikes. Anyway, got a chance to see the new Northern Beaches Hospital from inside. Lovely staff scanned and assessed your sorry correspondent and then sent me home with my dud right arm in a sling. Actually the arm’s just fine, it’s  the clavicle that limits movement.

Anyway, I guess the main point is: wear your helmet.

I haven’t quite figured out the picture  taking aspect of filing my reports and I’m not permitted to climb up to the crows nest atm, so I can’t give you an eyeball report on today’s conditions. But I can still check all the other data for ya.

As I laboriously tap these words outthere’s 10-12 kts of ESE wind showing at North Head, but according to the MHL data from 0700 there’s less than a metre of 7-sec south bump. So, we’re not missing anything.

Sadly, the swell models are not showing anything of interest for the next week. If they’re right, you’re in for short period and tiny wind bump at spots that like east.

Catchya again tomorrow and keep on smilin’!

 

Weather Situation

A ridge lies over the northern coast of New South Wales while a trough and associated south to southeasterly change have moved through the southern half of the coast. The change will extend along the remainder of the coast during today. Winds will tend northeasterly later Wednesday and during Thursday as a high centre, currently near Adelaide, drifts east over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the morning. Winds shifting southeasterly in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 5 December

Winds
Southeasterly below 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 6 December

Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Fast fading but still there early

Posted on December 1st, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The early session still had the odd shoulder high bomb at magnets, but it was pretty inconsistent for the keen types on it by 0630 when I checked conditions. The wind was stil light, however as the forecast below notes, we can expect the SE breeze to pick up ahead of a NE’ly this afternoon. As expected, the swell continued fading overnight and as of 0400 the MHL buoy was seeing 1.6 metres of 10 second swell from 152-154° (SSE). While surface conditions were smooth at 0630, wave quality was somewhat mediocre (beach breaks were sectiony and shutting down for the most part).
Tide is low at 1000 and then back to a 1.56 m high at 1600 – when the NE’r will be doing its thing. At the same time the swell energy will continue to gradually dissapate and by tomorrow we’re likely to be seeing knee to waist high conditions – which is probably a good thing because we’re heading to a 35C high and everybody will want to be at the beach.
The week ahead doesn’t look too exciting I have to say. That said there is some variation among the models that at least offers a little hope. Monday might be fun early for instance and, depending on the wind, Wednesday morning could be a possibility…
Here’s hoping!

Northy looking inconsistent and weak

Shutdy-downy on sets at sth Narra

Sth Narra 0625

No Mans chest-ish on sets at 0630

More shutdowns than not toward Kiddies

Busy at the point 0630

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge lying over New South Wales will shift east over the Tasman Sea today with winds along the coast gradually tending north to northeasterly and increasing as a cold front approaches from the west. This front is forecast to bring a vigorous southerly change to the south coast on Sunday afternoon, extending northward to the remainder of the coast during Sunday evening and early Monday. A brief return to northeasterly winds on Monday will precede a second southerly change late Monday or Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly below 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Sunday 2 December
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, tending westerly 15 to 25 knots inshore during the afternoon, ahead of a southerly change 25 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Monday 3 December
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then becoming northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.


 

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