Posts in At large

Feeble in Sydney, same same in SoCal

Posted on February 26th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
At 0610 this morning in Sydney, the wind was already coming from the SE at close to 15-20 kts. Out at sea, the MHL buoy was detecting close to two metres of 7-sec SE bump. A band of showers had just passed over the Northern Beaches and anyone other than the most desperately keen, ought to have been rolling over for a few more z’s. Looking at the cams, I have to say that there is no sign of an unexpected improvement to surf prospects since yesterday’s report. It’s set to blow SE until tomorrow afternoon and the models are not showing anything interesting in the way of long period swell energy.
While the waves may get a bit bigger across the week, the models are saying you should expect relentless onshore wind too. Not a fabulous outlook unfortunately.
I grabbed a snap from the North Bondi RSL this morning because it had a kind of nice blurry effect.

The blurry view from North Bondi RSL early this morning

Southern California is pretty close to flat at the moment, but it looks like clean and fun conditions in the 12C water up north at Santa Cruz’s famous Steamer Lane. Here’s a snap I pulled from the Surfline cam up there.

Steamer Lane in Santa Cruz looking clean and amazingly uncrowded for a Saturday morning


Saturday and beyond

Posted on February 25th, 2017 in At large, Goat's Forecast, Surf Reports.

Something for you to read on a wet day

Waves are currently around 2.3 m offshore from dead South at 9 seconds.  Tide is high at 8.20am. It’s raining heavy at times, windy at 30-40 kph overcast and dull to dark to poor visibility…

And there are some keen ones in the water! Me… I’ll have a shower instead.

The surf doesn’t look too promising for Saturday at the moment….likely to start coming up at places open to due South, but which will also be open to the S wind … And only shortish period swell, so it’s not likely much will get into protected corners.
If you’re keen you’ll have to look hard to find that place with a sweet spot between the wind being too much, and the waves not breaking.
For the following days, not much joy at this stage… Although there’ll be waves pretty much all week it looks like most days with have onshore/onshoreish wind, so wave quality isn’t likely to be high.
Never mind.  Might be ok for a get fit swim in protected corners, or in beach rock pools
Water temp was 22 from the Noreasters yesterday…Already back up to 24 after the southerly came through.
The Bureau is forecasting several days with the chance of a Thunderstorm… Being on the open ocean, or an open beach if there’s lightning around is not the places to be then.
The Goat’s Surf Forecast 
Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 February 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well we’ve had some nice weather …and ordinary waves. ..

Now, based on the Bureau’s current weather outlook, and after TG has digested the info he swallowed from his long range over the horizon binoculars and crystal ball (there’s a picture for you),  it looks like we might have coming our way ….some ordinary weather…and some ordinary short period low quality waves!  Yum.
I can either tell you what you want to hear, or I can tell you the truth…
No use sugar coating it for you..
Friday: around the middle of the 1-2 metre range East North East, might be alright in the morning before the wind turns S / SE
Saturday: starting to come up at places that get dead South swell,  but with little quality, no pulse to it and windy and choppy
Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East North East with onshore wind
Monday: pretty much ditto
Tuesday: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range East North East onshoreish
Wednesday: and ditto
Thursday: 1-2 metre range East with onshore
Have fun.  Keep smiling!
TG 😊

In the Air

MSLP Analysis for Fri Feb 24 18:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windytv.com/?-33.875,151.228,5

In the Sea

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary
Max 24
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very High (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Showers. Possible storm.Sydney24
Showers. Possible storm.Penrith23
Showers. Possible storm.Liverpool23
Showers. Possible storm.Terrey Hills22
Showers. Possible storm.Richmond24
Showers. Possible storm.Parramatta23
Showers. Possible storm.Campbelltown23
Showers. Possible storm.Bondi24

 

Sunday 26 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 25 to 40 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning east to southeasterly during the afternoon and evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 27 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then tending southerly during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Tuesday 28 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely during the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Wednesday 1 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 2 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds.


Southerly Saturday

Posted on February 25th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The 0300 MHL data showed about 1.5 metres of 7-8 sec south wind swell and at 0620 the southerly was already getting close to the 15-20 kt mark. Showers were showing on the radar and it looks like there are broader and more intense areas of precipitation out at sea, heading toward Sydney. I reckon it’ll be a top morning to stay under the doona a bit longer than usual because conditions will likely be pretty sad wherever you look in Sydney.
Outlook for the next three days is distinctly ordinary too. Lots of southerlies and SE’rs and what looks like a week of generally showery weather and consistently marginal surf conditions.

Saturday morning: showery and tiny at North Bondi

Weather Situation
A high is south of the Bight and a cold front is crossing the southern Tasman Sea. The high is expected to move east across Tasmania today in the wake of the front and is expected to become established over the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday where it will remain for the coming week. A trough of low pressure should develop off the New South Wales coast on Sunday and is expected to persist through much of the week.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. Showers heavy at times later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 26 February
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the evening. Winds turning easterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 27 February
Winds
East to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then turning easterly during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


You could surf… at the right spots

Posted on February 23rd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Nice looking morning coming up with knee to occasionally waist high sets at SE magnets. Tide was high at 0700 and will be back to low at 1340. Should be sunny and 31 later, so you won’t be astounded to hear that the wind’ll be NE by lunchtime.
Get in now and enjoy that 25 degree water you lucky pups!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman extends a ridge to the Queensland coast while a front approaches from the west. This pattern is directing east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast, tending fresh to strong northeast to northerly along the south coast as the front approaches. The front is forecast to bring a southerly change to the south coast later today, reaching the central coast during Friday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Friday 24 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers inshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Saturday 25 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
South to southwesterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. Showers heavy at times in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Postcards from Cali: break in the weather

Posted on February 23rd, 2017 in At large.

It rained pretty much all day yesterday, but right on dusk there was a break and I headed out for a look at the situation. Swell had cleaned up quite a bit after being very junky all day and there was even a little wan late afternoon sunshine. I checked west of Santa Barbara (closer than Rincon and less traffic) at El Capitan State Park and west Goleta. El Cap had maybe 20 people in the water chasing shoulder to head plus sets. Not perfect by any means, but certainly well above average quality for that place is a small crowd. Back in west Goleta one of my fave reef wonderlands was totally human-free and solidly head plus on the frequent multi-wave sets. Not possible for me to fit in a surf, so I took a few snaps to share…

Inside El Cap

El Capitan State Park, California, looking tasty

Seascape with no humans

Head plus at Deadmans

Haskells beach


Extreme enthusiasm required

Posted on February 22nd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Although the NNE’r was still 10-15 kts at 0200 this morning, it hasn’t pushed up anything of interest for early risers. The latest MHL data shows only a metre of 7-sec SE wind chop as the 1.67 m high tide tops out and begins dropping back to the low at 1250. I reckon even the biggest spots will be struggling to top the knee high mark for this morning’s early. And, although the NE’r will kick in pretty hard from about low tide onward, there’s nothing on the models to suggest it’ll do much to improve the conditions. Maybe possibly you could get a beat up waist plus onshore lump of chop toward dusk…
Outlook is for maybe a bit more of a wave tomorrow and then possibly something worthy of the name around Saturday.
On the plus side, water’s a balmy 25 and clean according to Beachwatch. So there is that…

North Bondi RSL view at daybreak Wed


Over on the other side of the ocean, the cold and rainy weather continues along with some small west bump at magnet spots. Your correspondent is hoping for a few sunny breaks tomorrow and maybe an opportunity to get wet…

California Street waist to chest, glassy, misty west lines

Weather Situation
A high pressure system moving over the southwestern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, directing northeast to southeasterly winds across coastal waters. A trough is forecast to move into New South Wales late on Wednesday as a cold front moves to the south. This will bring a southerly change to the southern coast during Thursday, reaching the central coast during Friday.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 23 February
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Friday 24 February
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.


Knee to waist at SE magnets

Posted on February 21st, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
High tide was 0510 and low’s at noon. Wind was light offshore at 0630 and the latest MHL report was showing 1.3 metres of 7-sec SE wind bump. From a scan of the cams it looks to be in the ankle to knee range most places but knee to maybe even occasionally waist at SE magnets. The Bureau and the modellers are not too hopeful about the rest of the day or indeed of the week. With luck it’ll continue to bump along just a notch or two above unsurfable flatness in the mornings. There doesn’t seem to be much in the long range forecasts either…

Pretty morning over at North Bondi. You might even get a wave of sorts too.

Meanwhile in SoCal we’ve had more rain on top of the record breaking falls of a few days ago and this morning saw a junkifying SE wind knocking about a shortish period waist to chest plus west swell. I went west of town for a look at the indications and picked up a few postcards for you…

Empty but bumped waves at Naples near Goleta, CA

Deadmans trying to spark up, but getting bumped by the onshore and a little cross swell

Up and riding – sort of – inside at El Cap this morning in California

One person in the water on a holiday Monday at stormy El Cap

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales. Winds will turn southeast to northeasterly during Tuesday as the high moves over the southwestern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge along the coast. A trough is forecast to move over the state during Wednesday as a cold front moves to the south. This will bring a southerly change to the southern and central coast during Thursday and Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore in the evening.
Wednesday 22 February
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the evening then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Thursday 23 February
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny


Postcards: waves where there usually aren’t any

Posted on February 20th, 2017 in At large.

Huge rains in southern California mean there are some ephemeral river mouth banks in places that never otherwise see a surfable peak. One such has formed just east of the harbor in Santa Barbara on a stretch of beach that almost never sees a wave above a foot. It’s very likely that these conditions will only last a day or two and then it could be another decade or two before it happens again. Water was brown with run-off and who knows what sort of micro-organisms…

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

Wave on the east side of Stearn’s Wharf – once in a lifetime East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara


Postcards from Rincon

Posted on February 19th, 2017 in At large.

The day before the big storm, I headed down to Rincon and grabbed a few shoulder to head and a bit waves with a biggish crowd competing for every one of ’em. By the time I got out the sets were starting to push into the 1.5x overhead range. Water was a chilly 13-14 but there wasn’t any wind and swell was comparatively clean.

On a wave at Rincon

Dude gets a nice set wave at rivermouth, Rincon, California

Setting up for the next section

Banking off the top


No need to rush

Posted on February 19th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

At 0540 wind was WSW 15-20 kts at North Head and the MHL buoy’s latest update was showing 1.6 metres of 6-sec SE wind bump. Put those together and you have… a good reason to sleep in.

The Bureau’s forecast is calling for the wind to swing south and for wave heights to improve as a combo SE and NE wind swell fills in. But looking at the various models, I’m not overly hopeful on your behalf. I reckon it’ll be south-torn mostly micro wind dribble myself.

The way I read it, the prospects are for really tiny to flat conditions until Wednesday late when there seems to be a prospect for slightly longer period stuff filling in from the east. Thursday-Friday have some potential for east magnets – at least at this stage.

I was off the air yesterday because normally dry Santa Barbara copped an absolute bucketing (numerous single day rainfall records broken) and there was no power for us until late in the evening.

This morning the cams are showing messy conditions with an ocean that looks like chocolate milk from the tremendous amount of run-off.

Chocolate milk with waves of a sort at California Street, Ventura CA

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge to the northwest directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales north coast while a slow moving low pressure trough is bringing southerly change along the south and central coasts. On Sunday a low will form within the trough off the central coast before moving rapidly to the south during Monday. Winds are expected to turn southeast to northeasterly during Tuesday as another high pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea behind the low extending a ridge to the north coast.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers offshore, 60% chance elsewhere.
Monday 20 February
Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 21 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly during the morning then tending east to northeasterly during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 30% chance of a shower.


 

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