Articles tagged with "NE-1m-7s"

Oh so small Saturday

Posted by: on August 20th, 2016
dy beach

Nothing happening up the beach

No sign of waves at the point  0640

No sign of waves at the point 0640

the moon

Our eternal companion full in the western sky


Hello Friends,

Last night the Bureau was talking about possible percipitation overnight, but this morning sees largely clear skies and, sadly, no surf at Dee Why. The MHL buoy was showing a metre of 7-second NE wind bump at 0500. As you can see from the pics, there’s really nothing going on surfwise. Looks like another great morning for a stroll along the strand, but you might as well leave the board at home if Dee Why’s your destination. Because it’s coming from the NE there might possibly be a little something at Curly, Northy or Manly, but I’d be taking the log and hoping for the odd knee high bomb.
At 0700 the wind was lightly out’ve the WNW at North Head. THe Bureau is calling for it to pick up to 20+ kts as it swings to the west (and likely makes it even smaller…).
Tide hits high at 0930, so on top of everything else, it’s gonna be fat.
Outlook for the coming week is distinctly ordinary. The Goat is right on as far as the models. Really looks sad until (maybe) the end of next week. Awww…
Have a top old Saturday!

Weather Situation
A gusty west to southwesterly change is moving along the New South Wales north coast. During Sunday winds will turn west to northwesterly as a high pressure system moves over the Tasman Sea extending a ridge to the northwest.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Westerly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore early this morning.
Sunday 21 August
Winds
Northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
South to southwesterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Monday 22 August
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing to 0.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Grey and micro at high tide Dee Why

Posted by: on December 4th, 2014

Hello Friends,
Energy levels have dropped more than many of us had hoped they would this morning. Skies are grey early and a high tide at 0715 is swamping any real prospect of a wave at Dee Why. We’re in for another steamy day with an 80% chance of rain.

As of 0500 we had a metre or so of 7-second period NE wind chop lapping lightly in along the Sydney shoreline. Wind was light and WNW. It should pick up later though and get into the 15-20 kt range.

Best prospects will be for a knee to waist high bump at one of the magnet spots – which obviously does not include Dee Why.

It’ll be interesting to see what the Goat thinks, but my reading of the tea leaves is that we’re stuck in a long term pattern of weak and tiny mainly NE wind swell. The more optimistic modelling shows a slight uptick for us into the early part of next week, but we’re talking waist, rather than knee high I’d have thought.

It’ll get better of course, so keep on smilin’ and get up to some good where you can!

dy point

Look elsewhere

no mans dee why

No Man’s with no mans or womans

Weather Situation

A strengthening high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards the Queensland coast, while a broad trough lies over southern and western New South Wales. These systems will move fairly slowly during the next day or two, directing northeasterly winds along the much of the coast. A weak trough will pass through Bass Strait later Thursday and should bring a southerly change to the southern New South Wales coast. The southerly change is expected to move north to affect central coasts on Friday before stalling.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely.

Friday 5 December

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday 6 December

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the day then tending northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Still small

Posted by: on January 18th, 2014

Same as it ever was

Day get started
Hello Friends,

You could ask for better. But, then again, it is summer, so whadya expect? We’re in for a warm one again today – although out here on the coast will be nothing like the sort of heat pretty much everybody west of us to the Indian ocean’s had to put up with. With all that energy in the system, the NE’r will spin up into the 20-25 kt range by this afternoon. Right now it’s maybe knee high at Dee Why, but maybe by dusk there’ll be some crazy mixed up wind swell lumps into the waist plus to even chestish range… never know… it could happen…

We’re due to get a south change through tomorrow, but it doesn’t look at this stage as though it’ll be bringing any swell with it.

TC June has formed southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. According to the latest reports, June’s maximum sustained winds were near 35 knots/40 mph/62 kph and the storm is expected to strengthen slightly over the next several days.

Here’s what the Bureau says:

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone June was located over the Coral Sea near New Caledonia. The cyclone is tracking towards the south southeast.

Tropical Cyclone June is expected to produce a prolonged period of gale
force winds, heavy rainfall and moderate to heavy swells over Norfolk Island on Sunday and Monday.

Damaging winds averaging above 75 km/h with gusts of about 100 km/h are
expected to develop on Norfolk Island by about midday on Sunday and persist
through the remainder of Sunday into Monday morning.
The wind is expected to ease later on Monday.

Heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected during Sunday afternoon with
rain easing overnight Sunday.

A heavy northerly swell will build on Sunday and Monday to more than 3 metres
as the system approaches, and shift to the west from Tuesday.

So, does that mean we’ll get waves here? Well, maybe. But from the shape of this morning’s swell modelling it really doesn’t look as though Sydney will see any swell energy from TC June. There might be something noticeable as you get up toward the Qld border but I wouldn’t be packing the car at this stage for a trip north.

Have yourself a great Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is steered eastwards ahead of weak cold front and associated trough moving over the southern Tasman Sea today. The trough will slowly extend across New South Wales today before weakening and stalling on Sunday near Seal Rocks. A south to southeasterly wind change is expected behind the trough associated with an elongated ridge of high pressure extending from southwest of Western Australia.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around dawn.
Sunday 19 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in early morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Monday 20 January
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.

Little Monday

Posted by: on January 6th, 2014

Bomb set breaks alone

Hello Friends,

Clear skies, lightly offshore but only knee to waist high little remnant wind waves coming in at the moment. Wind’s going SE’ly this afternoon and as that happens, the swell should perk from the south. As of 0200 the MHL data was showing a metre of 7 sec period NE wind bump. So you’ll be struggling to find much of anything worthy this morning I’d have thought.

Swell’s going to ramp overnight, but tomorrow morning will likely be southerly from early. Maybe we’ll get lucky and there’ll be something of interest in south corners for the early. Tide’ll be low about 0745 on Tuesday. It’ll be grey, showery and cool though.

Rest of the week looks pretty ho-hum at this point. Onshore and small seems to be the prospect according to the modelling. Mornings will be the best shot I’d say.

Have yourself a great Monday!

Weather Situation
A cold front with an associated low to the south is crossing the southwestern Tasman Sea bringing southerly change along New South Wales south and central coast. extending to the far north coast Monday afternoon. During Tuesday a strong high pressure system will move towards Tasmania extending a ridge to the northern Tasman Sea behind the change. This high is expected to move over the southwestern Tasman on Wednesday and become slow-moving strengthening the ridge to the north coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around dawn, then tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Tuesday 7 January
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots tending southeasterly in the late evening. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres.
Wednesday 8 January
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.

Is that you summer?

Posted by: on July 20th, 2013

Where's the crew

Hello Friends,

Looks like a breezy sort of day coming up. The Bureau is calling for NW 15 -25kts, turning W 20-25 kts. Sadly, we don’t have a strong winter swell to deal with it. Instead we’re looking at 7 second period NE wind swell of about a metre. Very summery looking on that front.

It looks as though your best shot is to hunt down a soft little peak this morning as the tide drops and before the wind gets up to speed.

It’s looking like the Goat’s call is pretty much right on. The models this morning are projecting conditions to remain similar to this morning’s for most of the coming week. There is some hope for a brief upward bump late in the week but it’s not currently looking like being much above chest to shoulder even then.

Maybe next week…

Aw well, have yourself a top old Saturday anyway!

Tides:  H @0540 L @1130

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge into southeast Queensland, while a deep low south of Tasmania is moving steadily east. Vigorous northwesterly winds are being generated between these systems as a trough and cold front approach from the west. Conditions are expected to remain fresh and gusty in many areas during the weekend, assisted by the development of another low to the east of Tasmania during Sunday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning westerly 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.

Sunday 21 July

Strong wind warning for Sunday for Sydney Coastal Waters

Winds
Westerly 20 to 25 knots turning northwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.

Monday 22 July

Winds
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning westerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.

 

 

Sticky: Feeble but not flat

Posted by: on December 1st, 2012

Hello Friends,

Not utterly hopeless this morning. There were little knee high dribblers scudding gently in on a relatively glassy sea for the early risers. The MHL buoy is showing the primary swell direction as NE at about 6-7 seconds apart. Height of the average wave is somewhere around the metre mark.

Wind was light and from the ENE at most spots. However, the forecast says it should go around more to the north as the day gets going. Yesterday the Bureau said we’d be getting strong NE winds and as a consequence I was hoping for some possible improvement to size for the late.

It’s going to be stinkin’ hot later and the murky skies align well with the 60% chance of percipitation late this afternoon.

Next tide is the high at 0930 and the low will be along at 1610.

Outlook for tomorrow (when yours truly will be spending most of the day helping out on the Surfrider stall at Ocean Care Day in Manly)? It’s likely to be a bit smaller, sadly. Not sure if I’ll take the board actually.

Outlook for the coming week is for tiny conditions until about Wednesday when, according to this morning’s swell modelling, we could get a boost of energy from the south. At this stage it looks as though we could see shoulder to head high plus at south spots. Woohoo! Been a loooong time since…

Stay cool and go well with your Saturday!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is slowly moving east maintaining a ridge to New South Wales north coast. A low pressure trough will bring southerly change to the far south coast later this evening extending to the central coast Sunday morning and to the far north coast early Monday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms during the evening.
Sunday 2 December
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 15 to 20 knots early in the morning then tending southeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the morning then increasing to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly about 1.5 metres tending easterly 1 metre late in the evening.
Monday 3 December
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.

Quiet warm Sunday morning

Posted by: on November 25th, 2012

Hello Friends,

Heading for a toasty day in Sydney. But surfing looks to be pretty much out. There’s only a metre of NE wind swell at 7 seconds and it’s really not showing much of anything at Dee Why. You might possibly find a little something at a spot with good NE exposure, but I’d be impressed if there was anything much above knee high.

I’ve got my eye on a low pressure system in the long range forecasts, but there are so many ifs and buts at this stage that I’m not making any plans. If it did come together, we wouldn’t see anything from it until mid next week. Between now and then the outlook for anything resembling surf on most of the east coast is not too flash.

But that won’t stop yours truly from checking it every day and scrutinizing the charts and models for the hint of our next swell.

Have yourself a top old Sunday!

Weather Situation
A high moving across southern New South Wales will strengthen over the Tasman Sea during the weekend, directing a northerly airstream along the coast. A trough will enter the south during Sunday, bringing a weak southerly change to coastal waters south of the Hunter, with a second trough bringing a stronger change to southern and central parts on Monday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly in the late morning, turning south to southeasterly 10 to 20 knots late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1 metre.
Monday 26 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly early in the morning then decreasing to variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 0.5 metres.
Tuesday 27 November
Winds
Southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tending northeasterly during the morning then tending east to southeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 0.5 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms.

Sticky: Thursday of tinyness

Posted by: on November 8th, 2012

Hello Friends,

The quick version: there’s really nothing going on where Dee Why’s concerned. If you’re really keen for a knee high wave, there should be little lumps at the NE spots this morning. Low tide is 0840 and the high is around 1450, but the range is less than a metre, so I wouldn’t think it’d have much influence one way or another.

Wind’s supposed to be out of the north early and then it’ll swing around to the southerly quarters for a bit in the early afternoon.

The Bureau says there’s a 95% chance of rain today, although it was clearing a bit when I wrote this around 0830.

Outlook for something resembling surf has not improved according to this morning’s swell modelling. A few days ago, they’d all been pointing to a little something of a southerly flavour for Sat-Sun, but that seems to have faded and the current reckoning is that we’re more likely to have the current marginal (or worse) dribble for another week at least. Bah!

Oh well, there’s plenty to be getting on with and sooner or later Huey will serve us up something to get the blood racing. Just gotta be patient.

Go well with your Thursday!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over New Zealand is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. This high is expected to remain slow-moving until the end of the week, as a broad trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough and an associated cold front are forecast to affect the coast, with a weak southerly change extending up to central parts of the coast on Thursday before dissipating. Following this a second trough with a fresh to strong and cooler southerly change extends throughout the coast from Friday and into Saturday. In the wake of this second change a high pressure ridge is expected to build over New South Wales on Sunday and into the new week.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly by the early afternoon then decreasing to east to southeasterly about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly about 2 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms.
Friday 9 November
Winds
Southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly in the early afternoon then shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Scattered thunderstorms.
Saturday 10 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres tending southeasterly 1.5 metres during the evening.

Sticky: Dull start at Dee Why

Posted by: on November 6th, 2012

Hello Friends,

As foretold by the swell prediction models, conditions in Sydney this morning are not great where the surf is concerned. So I guess you can devote yourself to other matters today. The energy settings are lowly indeed. We have a fluffy 7 second period metre of NE wind swell lapping in. So, you might get a knee to waist high thing at the NE spots. Wind was out of the NE at 10-15+ kts as of 0730 and the Bureau is calling for it to be hoofing along at 20-30 kts by lunch time. Should be a summery 27 with the prospect of a late shower too.

So maybe there’ll be a scrappy little something into the waist plus range at those NE spots later.

Speaking of temps, I reckon it’s getting close to time for me to put the steamer away and switch over to the springy as the water gets toward the 20 mark.

Outlook remains dire for the rest of the week in Sydney, but there seems to be hope of another weekend south pulse on Sunday. Hope those models are right…

Tide was low at 0625 and will hit high at 1250.

Hope you have a great Tuesday and good luck on the Cup should you be so inclined.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. This high is expected to remain slow-moving through much of the week, as a broad trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough and an associated cold front are forecast to reach the coast towards the end of the week, bringing a cooler southerly change.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly 0.5 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms late this evening.
Wednesday 7 November
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Thursday 8 November
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots turning northerly during the day.
Seas
Up to 2 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms from the morning.

Quiet along the shores of Sydney

Posted by: on October 30th, 2012

Hello Friends,

Weak and tiny NE wind swell lapping into the beaches of Sydney this morning. The wind and tide don’t really matter to surfers today. So, thoughts turn to the outlook and it’s not too red hot I’m afraid. The next two to three days are shaping up to be a variation on this morning. The swell forecast models continue to point toward a south pulse across the weekend, but at this stage it’s not looking like quality because the wind will be out of the southern quarters.

So have yourself a safe and happy Tuesday. And best wishes for good luck to our friends on the east coast of the USA where the unprecedented hurricane Sandy is coming ashore.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is moving slowly east-southeast maintaining a ridge to the New South Wales north coast through until later in the week. Later Wednesday or early Thursday a cold front is expected to bring a southerly change to the far southern areas as the high weakens near New Zealand. During Thursday and early Friday this southerly change will extend throughout.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly below 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly about 1 metre tending southeasterly 0.5 metres late this evening.
Wednesday 31 October
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1 metre.
Thursday 1 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1 metre.

 

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