Articles tagged with "S-1.5m-7s"

Really small, but not quite flat

Posted by: on May 12th, 2014

Hello Friends,

Just barely there this morning. But it was possible to jag the odd knee high wave with a mal up the beach from the DYSLSC. The MHL buoy shows 1.5 metres of 7 second period south wind swell and wind was light at 730. Surface was already textured though. If you’re going to find anything, it’ll have to be a real magnet spot for tiny south wind swell.

As it happens, I’m off on a long planned excursion up the coast for a few days. Not the best outlook for a wave, but it’s one of those schedule deals, so gonna make the best we can of what we get. As with Sydney, I’m not expecting to find much of anything today and tomorrow’s not looking flash either, but I am hoping the models are right about a brief little long period pulse for Wednesday. Actually, some interpretations of the data are projecting an improvement for Sydney by midday tomorrow – so maybe I’m being unduly pessimistic about prospects.

Have yourself a great Monday everyone!

Dee Why just barely above unsurfably small

Dee Why just barely above unsurfably small

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is moving east of Tasmania strengthening a ridge across the western Tasman Sea. This high is expected to be very slow-moving.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Scattered thunderstorms offshore, extending throughout.
Tuesday 13 May
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to about 10 knots early in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms offshore early in the morning.
Wednesday 14 May
Winds
East to northeasterly below 10 knots.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.

Sticky: Very small wind swell conditions

Posted by: on September 8th, 2013

Little Sunday morning section

Hello Friends,

Had a Don’s party last night and am off to a leisurely start today. Only a very small, weak south wind swell making itself felt this morning. Average period is around the 7 second mark and at Dee Why sets were struggling to make the waist high mark. Dull grey skies, a light southerly and cool air temps were not dissuading a hardy crew though. The wind’s set to turn more to the east later, so the conditions, such as they are, won’t be improving.

The marginal conditions look likely to bumble along for the next few days, but the swell prediction models continue to hold out hope of an okay size south pulse for Thursday-Friday. The problem will be, as it so often is, that the southerly will be chasing the swell up the coast. My hopes are for a few forerunner sets in the monrning of Thursday before the southerly gets into it. But we shall see…

Gotta go, but should have a little video I shot up at Crescent last week to share later today…

In the meantime, if you aren’t on the list of the good folk who’ve pledged support to the RealSurf crowdfunding drive, this would be a great day to join in!

Go well!

Forecast issued at 6:07 am EST on Sunday 8 September 2013.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge into northern New South Wales, while a weakening trough lies over southern and central parts of the state. This trough will shift to the northeast during Sunday and dissipate, with high pressure remaining dominant until a stronger trough and frontal system cross the region early in the new week.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 0.5 metres around midday.
Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Monday 9 September
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Tuesday 10 September
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly during the day.

The waiting game again

Posted by: on September 24th, 2012


Hello Friends,

With only 1.5 m of 7-second period south swell, there really is not much going on at Dee Why – and I’d guess other spots will be the same along the Sydney coast. There might possibly be a little bump at really exposed spots, but I reckon anything above knee high would be a real find.

To the extent it matters, tide is low at 0850 and high at 1520. There’s not much of a swing between the two either.

There’s a small hope that tomorrow could see a little uptick in energy levels, but it doesn’t look as though the improvement will be too dramatic. My hope is for the odd waist high plus option on Tuesday morning.

Outlook for the remainder of the week is as it has been, namely small to near flat. As of this morning’s run of the swell modelling, tomorrow seems to be the best option over the coming 5 days or so.

Have yourself a great Monday!

Weather Situation
A cold front is crossing the western Tasman Sea bringing southerly change along New South Wales coast and a high pressure system south of the Bight is extending a ridge behind the front. The high is moving slowly east and by Wednesday it will be centred over the Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Tuesday 25 September
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre later.
Swell
Easterly 1 metre tending southerly 1.5 metres from the morning.
Wednesday 26 September
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly about 1.5 metres.

Sticky: It’s a mighty unmighty morning

Posted by: on October 10th, 2011

 

 

Hello Friends,

Looked at both the Collaroy-Narrabeen and Long Reef-Dee Why stretches this morning. Tide was pretty full, but the real problem was the puny south swell. It’s around the metre mark out at sea and the average period is a paltry 7 seconds. The consequence is an entirely predictable near flat ocean.

There is a chance of a slight improvement later today as the tide drops and, if we’re lucky, a weak south pulse reaches the Sydney region. The pulse was about a 2m at Eden yesterday evening and closer to 3m at Batemans Bay in the early morning hours. Assuming it gets to us, I’d say a check around lunch time might be a plan. The wind is not a factor now, but by then the Bureau says it will be out of the easterly quarters as it moves around to the NE.

From the shape of this morning’s forecast models, tomorrow isn’t looking flash, but there might be a little something from the south on Wednesday.

Beyond that it looks like small, messy and generally onshore through the weekend.

Ah well! So it goes eh? Have yourself a top old Monday.

TIDES: H @0655, L @1300

Weather Situation

A weakening cold front is moving along New South Wales central coast. Another cold front will bring southerly change to the southern half of the coast during Tuesday. Behind the front, a high pressure system will move south of the Bight extending a ridge to the southwestern Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 20 knots tending southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending east to northeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending northwesterly about 10 knots later in the evening.
Seas
About 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly about 1 metre.

Tuesday 11 October

Winds
West to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots tending southeast to southwesterly up to 15 knots around midday.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.

Wednesday 12 October

Winds

West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly later.

Seas

Below 1 metre.

Swell

Southerly 1 metre.

Sticky: Very nearly perfectly flat

Posted by: on August 22nd, 2010

Hello Friends,

Wow, a hung parliament. Interesting. Unlike the ocean off Sydney it has to be said. The MHL buoy is showing about 1.5 metres of south swell at a windswell-y 7 seconds. That’s translating into abject flatness at the Dee Why end of the beach I can see from the RealSurf crows nest. There might possibly be a little something up the beach toward Longy, but I’d be astounded if it was above the knee high mark.

The outlook for the coming week remains dire for Australia’s east coast. However, this morning’s run of the models is showing a reasonably interesting system spinning up in the Tasman toward the end of the week. Because it’s right on the edge of the forecast range, I’m not getting too excited, but with luck we might actually have a wave late Friday… naturally we’ll be keeping an eye on it for you.

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Sunday until midnight: Wind: Westerly 10 to 20 knots tending west to southwesterly up to 15 knots during the morning then tending northeasterly during the afternoon.Sea: Up to 1.5 metres.Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Monday: Wind: North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.Sea: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.Swell: Southerly up to 1 metre.
Tuesday: Wind: West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots reaching 30 knots offshore.

Sticky: Okay, flatness gone…

Posted by: on June 10th, 2010

As promised, we’ve been keeping an eye on it… and the swell has arrived. From flat at 0800 to definitely surfable at 1100. Classic.

Swell has come back around to the south and is now averaging 1.5 metres. Weirdly, the MHL buoy is showing 6 second periods on average. This definitely doesn’t square with what I watched coming into Dee Why. I reckon it’s at least 8 seconds already (that’s up from under 6s this morning)
1200…

1100…

Sticky: Grey skies again

Posted by: on March 10th, 2010


Hello Friends,

Another morning of greyness and smallness. Wind is 10-20kts out of the SW, so it’s clean in the south corners. But the swell’s gone dead south. It’s averaging a touch under two metres at sea with an average period of just 7 seconds. The biggest wave I saw, indeed the only one in a little under 10 mins of watching, was the one I got the picture of. I think it’s reasonable to suppose that we’re looking at similar struggling-to-be-waist-high conditions pretty much every where in Sydney this morning.

Gotta run, so will be back later with a few thoughts on the outlook…

Tides: L @1220, H @1815

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 20/25 knots increasing to 25/30 knots during the afternoon.Sea: rising to 2 to 3 metres. Swell: S/SE increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres
Thursday: Wind: S/SE 20/30 knots, decreasing to 15/20 knots during the morning. Sea: 2 to 3 metres, abating to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning. Swell: S 2 to 2.5 metres.
Friday: Wind: S/SE 10/20 knots.

Sticky: Hello there Huey

Posted by: on January 18th, 2010

…long time no see matey!

It’s starting boys and girls.

Not much showing on the buoys yet, but the lines are much more distinct and there are sets every 10 minutes or so that are getting toward the chest high mark at Dee Why point and maybe a touch bigger up the beach.

Indications this is going to be a brief pulse. The latest forecast from the Bureau expects the swell to be back to small by tomorrow afternoon. High tide’s around the middle of the day, so it looks the morning’s the go…

A couple pictures for you below…

Tuesday: Wind: SW 15/20 knots, reaching 20/30 knots offshore at first. Easing to 10/15 knots in the afternoon, N/NW 5/10 knots at night. Sea: 2 to 3 metres, abating to about 1 metre in the afternoon/evening. Swell: S about 2 metres.

 

 

Sticky: Sunday blergh

Posted by: on November 16th, 2008

Hello Friends,

0900: Dee Why not exactly pumping but not absolutely flat either.

0900: Dee Why not exactly pumping but not absolutely flat either.

How’s your Sunday shaping up? Okay I trust. If you can’t get down to the beach today, not to worry. As anticipated it is marginal. Dee Why had a few bods bobbing around up the beach from the SLSC, but as the picture shows, it was distinctly uninspiring. Throw in SSW wind of around 10-15 kts and dull grey skies and you have a set of conditions requiring great keeness to work.

Here’s the Bureau’s call for Sunday:
Sunday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 15/20 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots during the morning, easing to 15/20 knots in the evening. Sea: rising early to 2 to 3 metres, abating to 1 to 2 metres in the evening. Swell: E/NE 1 to 1.5 metres turning SE 1 to 2 metres.
Monday: Wind: SE/E 5/10 knots, tending NE 10/15 knots.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: S 1.5 to 2 metres.

The forecast models show the same general outlook as the Bureau (hardly surprising as everybody’s using the same basic data).  But they also project the likely period and on that front the news is fairly ho-hum. The current 7 second stuff we’re seeing in the Sydney region looks set to continue through Monday. Around about Tuesday, the primary direction looks set to swing a bit more to the east and as the average height drops, the period could push up a touch. Consequence? More punyness I’d say.

At the moment, it looks as though the Sydney region’s best hope for a wave of any consequence will be from around Thursday on – at beaches with ENE exposure. One of the models (virtualbuoys) reckons Thursday morning could have light offshores and 3 metres of 8-9s ENE windswell… that’d be nice!

Go well with your day!

 

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