The Bureau was calling for about 1.5 metres of south swell this morning, but when I woke up, I could hear it whispering under the morning bird calls. I’m a couple of kays from the beach, so that generally means a light onshore coming from the same direction as the swell, but when I climbed into the crows nest for a look, the ocean was pretty smooth. And, sure enough, there’s some chest to shoulder plus south energy getting into Dee Why. A squizz at the MHL data shows that it’s averaging close to the 3 metre mark at sea with a healthy 10+ sec period.
Tide’s high at 0900, so there is definitely a fatness factor as I write this, but the wind should be light and variable later and as the tide drops it could start to come together. The Bureau expects this stuff to fade, so as usual, timing will be all…I’d get on it ASAP because the rest of the work week looks distinctly ordinary on the modelling (however, there is still some hope of a weekend pulse…)
Hope you get your timing right today!
Weather Situation A strong high pressure system centred near Adelaide extends a ridge across New South Wales to the northern Tasman Sea. This high will drift slowly east during the next few days, with winds easing and turning northerly along most of the coast by Wednesday. During Thursday, the high is expected to be weakening over the Tasman Sea, allowing a trough and associated cold front to move from the Southern Ocean towards western New South Wales. This frontal system is forecast to affect bring a southerly change to the coast on Friday and Saturday. Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Winds Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day. Seas 1.5 to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the morning. Swell Southerly about 1.5 metres. Wednesday 3 October Winds North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly in the afternoon. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Southerly 1 metre. Thursday 4 October Winds West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon then increasing to 2 metres during the evening. Swell Southerly 1 metre tending easterly 0.5 metres from midday.
If you can get to your favourite south swell spot this morning, the go at once. Swell is close to the three metre mark at sea with a punchy 10-11 second period. Set wave faces were 1.5-2x overhead at Dee Why before 0700.
Swell has likely peaked, but it should be solid right through the day. In fact, we should have reasonable energy levels across the next 3 days or so.
The wind will be out of the SE before long and we’re racing toward a high tide at a little after 1100.
Get out there if ya can!
Weather Situation A high south of the Bight extends a ridge towards New South Wales. The high will slowly drift east during the next day or two, with a ridge strengthening along the Australian east coast and north to northeasterly winds developing along the coast over the weekend. A trough approaching from the west is expected to reach the NSW coast late Monday/Tuesday, when a southerly change will extend northwards along the southern half of the coast. Forecast for Thursday until midnight Winds South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Southerly 2 to 3 metres. Friday 16 December Winds South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly 5 to 10 knots during the evening. Inshore sea breezes. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Southeasterly about 2 metres. Saturday 17 December Winds Southeast to northeasterly about 10 knots. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Light SW winds this morning and 3 metres of 10 sec period south swell under mostly cloudy skies greeted early risers this morning. Low tide was at around 0545 and the high’s at about 1220, so in that respect conditions were pretty good. Surface conditions were smooth but quite lumpy. That meant lots of flat spots and sections to be dealt with.
From this morning’s swell modelling, it looks as though we can expect the average size to decrease very gradually across the day, but with luck the drop will be only a couple feet on this morning’s average size.
The larger issue is likely to be the afternoon sea breezes which are expected to be around to the easterly quarters.
The Bureau’s swell modelling shows it dropping to about half the present size, but being offshore for the early tomorrow morning. Thursday’s wind call is for south to south east, so the best shot will probably be the early. Beyond that the models point to potential small but longish period energy on Friday morning and then again on Saturday.
So, if you can hit it today, particularly this morning, that looks like the best plan.
Have yourself a great Tuesday!
A strong, slow-moving high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge over NSW. The high pressure ridge will continue to dominate inland parts of the state during the week, with a southerly change moving through the coast from Wednesday. During Saturday the high is expected to become centered over the Tasman.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
South to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending southeast to northeasterly in the afternoon and evening.
Below 1 metre.
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Wednesday 2 November
Northeast to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending west to northwesterly during the morning ahead of a southeast to southwesterly change 10 to 20 knots around midday.
Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Thursday 3 November
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending easterly up to 10 knots during the evening.
Swell is dead south after yesterday’s change, and as the day got started it was coming down from hitting a peak of 4 metres at 10 sec during the dark hours. At 0700 it was still chuffing along at 3 metres and close to 10 sec. That’s more vigorous than the models had originally projected but the reality is nothing like you’d expect from the numbers. Although it was lightly offshore this morning, there weren’t too many people in the water at Dee Why. The problem was that the swell wasn’t really working and even the biggest sets were struggling to deliver head high wave faces. And mostly it was much smaller than that. Every now and then a catchable one hit the point, but you needed a SUP or a mal to have much of a shot.
Went up to North Narrabeen to get another fix on the swell and discovered three or four extra keen types (in wetties because of the cool air temps) trying to extract something from what was really a chaotic situation. Like Dee Why it wasn’t all that big in the corner (it was a bit more solid at carparks, but unsurfable), and worse, waves would pop up and then double or cancel out as earlier waves bounced back into the oncoming swell.
A bit of a disappointment one would have to say.
Outlook is for the downward trend to continue through the day as the swell fizzles out to near flatness for tomorrow morning. However, according to the models, this should just be a brief lull as a new long period south pulse fills in. The pulse looks like peaking during the night hours but it should still be around on Wednesday morning.
Go well with your day!
TIDES: H @1130 L @1750
Weather Situation A strong high pressure system is moving towards Tasmania extending a ridge to New South Wales north coast. The high will move over the southern Tasman Sea by Wednesday and then it will move slowly towards New Zealand during Thursday and Friday maintaining the ridge to the north coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight Winds: Southerly 15 to 25 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday. Seas: Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre by early evening. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.
Forecast for Tuesday Winds: South to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots around midday then increasing to 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southeasterly 0.5 to 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Wednesday Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the evening. Swell: Southerly 0.5 to 2 metres.
Although the day started out flat, a fresh south pulse filled in rapidly from late morning and by the time I headed out for a closer look, it was overhead at many south spots. Decided to head up to Avalon and Newport for a look.
Only a few bods in at the south end of Av and it wasn’t really too spectacular looking. Waited around and got a few set waves being ridden. Then went down to Newport where The Peak was looking pretty reasonable. Not many lefts, but some fun looking and often solid rights were coming through. Again, not many people in the water, but I shot for awhile anyway because Derek Hynde was out and doing interesting things on a finless board…
At last, some energy. This morning the MHL buoy shows the Sydney region doing about the best of anywhere along the coast as what looks to be a relatively brief south pulse lights the joint up. According to the data it’s averaging 3 metres out at sea on a respectable 10-11 seconds.
I watched the point and beach at Dee Why for awhile and it seemed relatively setty. Average size was around the chest high range, but I did see a couple wave faces that would’ve been overhead for most of us.
Bunches of bods in the water at the point and along the beach where the stiff and cold SW’ly is holding them up pretty nicely. It looks as though the swell should stick around for about a 24 hours. The wind is going to be a factor though. The southwesterly is going to swing south to SE this afternoon, before fading in the evening.
Get out there and enjoy!
TIDES: H @ 0607, L @1222, H @1841 Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Strong Wind Warning. Monday until midnight: Wind: South to southwest 20 to 25 knots, reaching 25/30 knots offshore during the morning. Winds tending south to southeast 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and variable at 5/10 knots in the evening.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, gradually abating to about 1 metre.Swell: Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres. Tuesday: Wind: West to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots.Sea: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: S/SE 1 to 2 metres Wednesday: Wind: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending westerly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Hoping to see signs of swell last night, I checked the buoys just before downing tools at around 2300. It was still tiny. But, an hour or so later Huey swept the engine telegraph forward and in the space of six hours the swell jumped from a metre on average at just 6 seconds, to three metres at 11 seconds.
If the time I had to wait to grab this morning’s first snaps is any guide, there’s a bit of a wait between sets (at Dee Why anyway). Size at the point looks to be around the chest high range with the odd bigger one.
Not huge, but a nice looking morning out there.
From the look of the buoy data from down Batemans Bay way, the swell could be near its peak right now, but if we follow the pattern down that way, it should be a gradual and small decline over the day.
The good news is that the forecast models are anticipating a steady supply of swell across the next week. So while we can expect a bit of a drop in size today, it should remain comfortably in the surfable range into Saturday. And that’s a good thing.
Hope you’re able to get amongst it. I’ll be making an effort to get out and about with a camera at some point, so with luck I’ll have a few more piccies for later.
Tides: H 1150, L 1836
Synoptic Situation A deep low over the southern Tasman Sea, moving steadily east. Winds will continue to ease this morning as the low moves further away. A high pressure ridge will develop across northern NSW today, then will move into the Coral Sea on Friday as another front moves into western NSW. This front is expected to cross the coast early Saturday.
Sydney Coastal Waters,Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Strong Wind Warning. Thursday until midnight: Wind: W/SW 20/30 knots, chiefly offshore, easing to 15/20 knots during the morning, then tending NW/NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon.Sea: 2 to 3 metres offshore, abating to about 1 metre.Swell: S 3 to 4 metres. Friday: Wind: NW 10/15 knots, turning N/NE 20/30 knots in the afternoon/evening. Sea: about 1 metre rising 2 to 3 metres in the afternoon. Swell: S 2 to 3 metres decreasing 1 to 2 metres during the day. Saturday: Wind: W/NW 25/35 knots.