Hello Friends,

Only a metre of SE wind swell at sea this morning off Sydney. Worse, the average period is just 6 seconds. So, there really isn’t much of anything going on at Dee Why as the day gets started. There were a few bods bobbing in the limpid waters up toward No Mans, but I didn’t see them snag anything from the sub-waist high conditions. There is a distinct, but short duration pulse showing in the buoy data from down the coast and the swell forecast is calling for it to reach here about lunchtime. It’s just as short period as the present dribble, so I’d say we should see an uptick in size to maybe waist to chest on the bombs. The SW wind is due to turn west and pick up into the 20-25kt range though and that could tend to hold the swell offshore.

Tomorrow’s prospects are looking distinctly puny according to the swell models, but we’re still expecting to see something of interest on Monday as a solid looking south pulse fills in and then basically looks to hang around through mid-week.

The south is forecast to be around the 3 metre mark at sea and the models are showing periods in the 11-13 second range, so it ought to be into the overhead to 1.5x overhead range at exposed spots. Wind is going to be pretty strong and from the SW. Could be another interesting Monday.

Tide was low at 0745 and will hit high at 1355 or so. But the tide is changing by less than a metre, so the banks should basically be about the same all day.

Have yourself a great Saturday!

Weather Situation
A trough and associated cold front move over the northern coast. Windier conditions will persist in the the far south in a wake of the front on Saturday. A high will gradually approach from the west, maintaining a vigorous southerly airstream across the region during Sunday and Monday, assisted by further fronts brushing the state’s southeast. An increasing southerly swell is expected to develop later on the weekend.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning westerly 20 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1 metre.
Sunday 13 May
Winds
Westerly 20 to 25 knots tending west to southwesterly up to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres increasing up to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Monday 14 May
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.

Hello Friends,

Good morning to roll over and get a bit more sleep. At first light, the skies were grey and it was raining lightly. Not much wind to speak of, but the morning forecast is calling a southerly to come through the joint.

Swell out at the MHL buoy off Sydney was registering about a metre from the SE at maybe 6 seconds apart. That’s not good for much of anything. Once the southerly settles in, it should come up but of course there’ll be only a few places with anything resembling a surfable lump.

The southerly is expected to carry on through tomorrow and then on Monday it’s supposed to go SE. Oh joy.

Right now it’s looking like a weekend that will require all your reserves of keeness to get you in the water.

Longer range, the swell predictions are pointing at a potentially interesting east pulse around Wed-Thr., so at least we have something to look forward to!

Go well with your Saturday.

TIDES: L @1150 H @1755

Weather Situation
Sydney area
Cloudy. Areas of rain in the morning, easing around midday. Possible showers during the afternoon. The chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Winds south to southwesterly averaging up to 25 km/h becoming southerly up to 30 km/h around midday.
Marine:
A cold front moving across the southern Tasman Sea will bring a gusty southerly change to the Illawarra and Sydney coast this morning, and the Macquarie coast in the afternoon on Saturday. Fresh north to northeasterly winds are expected over most waters ahead of this change.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms this morning and afternoon.
Sunday 18 March
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots turning southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Monday 19 March
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots turning easterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 2 metres.

Hello Friends,

Probably the less said about this morning at Dee Why, the better. Only a weak little metre of south windswell getting knocked about by an unfriendly and steady SSE wind of 15-2kts is getting into the place. Throw in a high tide at around 1120 and gloomy skies and you’re looking at another day t test a surfer’s resolve. It looks likely that the surf conditions will continue in this direction through the day.

Outlook for the next few days is still about where it was yesterday, ie marginal. The dominant swell direction is set to move more to the east today and then to pretty much stay that way over the coming week. Average periods are expected to bounce around in the 7-8 second range with wave heights at best exposed spots bumping about in the metre range give or take a bit.

At this stage it looks as though we might get some fun morning waves (waist to chest plus) early next week. The overall pattern showing in the long range forecasts is for a generally east windswell regime across next week in Sydney. Here’s hoping…

Go well with your day!

Weather Situation

A trough and associated weak southerly change lies on the Mid North Coast and will move further north today. A high near Tasmania will move into the Southern Tasman Sea today and extend a ridge northwards along the NSW coast. By Friday winds will turn north to northeasterly along the coast, strengthening in the south later.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.
Forecast for Friday

Winds: Northeasterly and light increasing to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday then increasing to 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.
Forecast for Saturday

Winds: Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 1 metre
-Commonwealth of Australia 2010, Bureau of Meteorology

.

Hello Friends,

Ah the wonders of the internet. Your correspondent may be far from the sea, but a quick check of the MHL data reveals that the microscopic conditions must be back again. In the space of around 12 hours, the average period dropped from around the 12 second mark to maybe six. The height of the swell at sea didn’t really change much at all, having never climbed much above a metre. So, when I looked at Rob and Matt’s reports this morning, I wasn’t too surprised. The Bureau’s hoisted a gale warning for strong SW winds today. They’re expected to last through tomorrow, but if the wave forecast models are right, there could be some south swell energy for tomorrow. Again, it looks like being a relatively short pulse ahead of another longish spell of small to flat conditions. Winter seems to be winding down a little early if you ask me. Our swell pulses are getting further apart and smaller…

Anyway, have yourself a top old day and go well with your plans!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Gale Warning
Thursday until midnight: Wind: West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore, tending south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, reaching 3.5 metres offshore.Swell: Easterly about 1 metre tending southerly 1.5 metres late in the evening. Chance of isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday: Wind: South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots around dawn then tending southerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.Sea: 2 to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.
Saturday: Wind: South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to southwesterly up to 10 knots during the morning then tending northwesterly during the afternoon. Winds northerly up to 15 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

As I write this the weather radar shows another band of showers approaching Sydney. Not the greatest day to be looking for a wave. And, from the look of the buoy data, not a day when you’d find much of anything anyway. The wind swell is coming mainly from the SE at about a metre at 6 seconds apart. Those numbers say that it’s just about flat, and with the rain and general gloom, I’d guess there won’t be too many boards making it to the water today.

Outlook for the next week appears little changed from yesterday’s prognosis – ie another 7 days of more or less the same thing.

Ah well. Have yourself a great day anyway!

Synoptic Situation
A trough of low pressure is expected to remain in the vicinity of Seal Rocks until late Monday, maintaining north to northeast winds about the Mid North and Far North coasts and south to southeast winds about the Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra and South coasts. The trough will progress further north later on Monday and Tuesday, extending southerly winds to the Far North coast. A high pressure system moving into the Tasman Sea on Wednesday will result in an east to northeasterly airstream.
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Monday until midnight: Wind: SW/SE 10/15 knots freshening S/SE 15/20 knots in the afternoon. Sea: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: E/NE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Tuesday: Wind: S/SE 15/20 knots. Sea: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: E/NE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: SE/NE 10/20 knots.

LATE ARVO UPDATE:

1745: not exactly pumping, but some kids on lids are finding something at the chair.

Finally the skies have lifted adequately for me to see what’s going on from the crow’s nest atop the RealSurf wheelhouse. And what’s going on is only very slightly more than what my picture from this morning showed. There hasn’t been a tremendous improvement in the vital signs. The latest MHL trace is showing that the average period has risen maybe one second to 7s, but the size of the now SSE windswell is still only around a metre. Looking at the models, I can see no real reason to think that things will improve overnight. Thursday looks to be as woeful a prospect as today. Indeed, methinks we’re not likely to see much of anything in the Sydney region until next week. The virtual buoys model is showing a little long period south pulse for Sunday afternoon-ish. If it happens, that could translate into shoulder high sets at south facing beaches. The very long range models are showing a pretty intense system forming up in the Tasman around mid next week. Will be interesting what the run of models shows tomorrow on that one. 

Have yourself a top old evening!

Hello Friends,

Can’t see the ocean yet… so no eyewitness report for the time being. I’ll go out with the camera soon and of course will report back on anything of interest. In the meantime what one can say is that the MHL buoy shows that yesterday’s tasty little pulse has rolled off from a couple metres at 8-10 sec, to a metre at 6 seconds from the SE. Throw in a steady 12-16kts of SE wind and the rain…  Well, if that doesn’t turn out to mean mostly choppy little junk, I’ll be putting a little salt and pepper on my headgear and getting out the knife and fork.

Back later this morning with more thoughts…

0915: Utterly without interest at Dee Why this morning.

0715: you can have it to yourself... if you want it!

Hello Friends,

Overcast and dripping this morning. And more of the wet stuff is on the way. Wind is currently out of the SW around to the NW, but the call is for it to rack around to the SE and then settle into the south as it accelerates to 20-30 kts. With luck this will push up the windswell prospects tomorrow morning. Right now, there’s not much of anything though.

The MHL buoy is showing about a metre of SE windchop (the period’s only 6 sec), so there really is nothing going on down at Dee Why. Maybe toward dark you might be able to jag some little windswell waves – assuming you don’t mind surfing in onshores.

Surf outlook for the Sydney region remains less than wonderful. Junky onshore windswell for the next 48 hours or so, then back to near flat in the run up to the weekend.

Ah well, what can you do? It’s spring and we just have to wait for Huey to notice us again.

Apropos nothing in particular, I keep forgetting to mention that one of the cool features of our new WordPress powered website is that you can leave comments on any report or story. All you have to do is register here first . (Comments are moderated, so there will typically be a delay before your cogent observations and witty thoughts appear on the page.)

0730: a sunshower, dribbly onshore wind and nothin' much in the way of swell...

Hello Friends,

Sort of an interesting day for those of us who enjoy watching weather – breezy, the odd shower, the occasional sunbeam. But, sadly, where the surf’s concerned, it’s conforming to the forecasts.

Once again, the MHL Sydney buoy is reporting average swell height at sea of about a metre from the SE. It’s strictly windswell too, as the period is just a choppy 6 seconds. The only bright(ish) spot I can see in the data is a very slight uptick in the power setting on the Byron buoy. I’m reaching here though, because it’s only a second or so! But maybe it’s the first hint of the inbound east swell…

The forecasts continue to anticipate the development of pretty serious amounts of swell along the east coast. And, if the models are to be believed, it should last for 3 or 4 days or even longer. Sadly, it also looks as though we’re going to have pretty strong E-SE winds over the coming days as well, so the surf options are probably going to be limited to the very protected south corners.

Could be interesting…

Go well with your Wednesday plans!