Archive for January 2018

Today

Posted on January 13th, 2018 in Surf Reports.
Saturday
For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Postcards from Cali-No. 2

Posted on January 12th, 2018 in At large.

 

Hello Friends,

A few snaps for you from Santa Barbara and thereabouts…

(above) From Surfline.com’s California Street, Ventura cam at dusk today. Very little showing in the way of swell along the southern California coast. We’re hoping for a gradual improvement tomorrow…

With all roads between Santa Barbara and Ventura closed, the local tourist ferry operators who usually take people on day trips to the Channel Islands are running boatloads of commuters up and down the coast. It takes about 1:30 hrs to go from Ventura to Santa Barbara. Once the Freeway is opened on Monday (we hope) the trips will stop. That breakwater in the background is the one at Santa Barbara where the Kirra-esque Sandspit take off is (when there’s swell!)

Just an odd looking frame of my board shooting into the air at the end of a wave. I surfed yesterday at Campus Point in Santa Barbara. Waves were super gutless and on this occasion I just let the board sink until it popped up again.

My shadow self-portrait on a knee high dribbler at Campus. Water about 15C, air 20C.

More tomorrow I hope


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 11th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday Update

For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

 

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 11 01:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 11 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22 in Sydney, 25 Byron, 23 Eden

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
Mostly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly cloudy.Sydney26
Mostly cloudy.Penrith31
Mostly cloudy.Liverpool30
Mostly cloudy.Terrey Hills26
Mostly cloudy.Richmond30
Mostly cloudy.Parramatta29
Mostly cloudy.Campbelltown30
Mostly cloudy.Bondi23

 

Friday 12 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Saturday 13 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 31
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h shifting west to southwesterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 14 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then increasing to 25 to 40 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 15 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the morning.

Tuesday 16 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 17 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.


Postcards from Cali: crazy weather

Posted on January 10th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Diamond Head and rainbow

.

Let’s get the Sydney surf situation taken care of before the postcards…

At 0950 there was a light and steady 7-9 kt SSE breeze knocking the top off another day of gutless and tiny wind bump. That said, it does appear from the cams that it’s a touch bigger (ankle to waist) than when I last saw it. If you have to miss it, you aren’t missing much of anything. Judging from the forecast models, the situation should stumble along more or less as it is until Friday when there might be a little south pulse with NE wind combo.

The long range models are showing prospects for an intense south swell event, but it’ll likely be smashed by the wind (also south) for a couple days before possibly settling down into some fun conditions mid next week.

The flight from Oz to the US west coast involved a brief stop in Honolulu, so I can report that there was very little if anything showing on the town side. Did get a nice picture of Diamond Head and a rainbow as we climbed out again for the leg to LA.

Got into California after dark so didn’t get a look at the (non) surf situation until yesterday. No hope of a wave sadly. And the same again today (see below).

California had it’s first significant rain event in 300 days last night. We saw 75-100 mm and because of the terrible fires of a couple of weeks ago, there’s nothing on the hillsides to stop the water from carrying huge amounts of mud and debris down onto the coastal plain. As I write this the 101 Freeway that runs along the coast near where the fires were is still closed from all the stuff coming off the hills and mountains. It’s a really big deal and we’re still waiting to hear what sort of death toll there’s been. 8 people were killed by mudslides in the Montecito area just south of Santa Barbara – and there may be more. Helicopters have been flying over our place all day as they help with the rescue efforts. Scary stuff.

Hope you’re staying safe and well!

 

Weather Situation

A trough along the mid north coast is slowly moving northward, with northerly winds shifting southerly in its wake. The trough is expected to stall on the far north coast on Thursday and then dissipate, as a high pressure system moves east over the southern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge to the coast. This will cause winds to shift north to northeasterly throughout by Friday, freshening ahead of the next front, which will bring a vigorous southerly change to the coast during the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 11 January

Winds
East to southeasterly below 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 12 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Northy better than Dee Why

Posted on January 7th, 2018 in North Narrabeen, Surf Reports.

30 plus in the water at Northy where there are actually little catchable waves every now and then. Competition looks fierce for the soft and slow waist high sets. Heaps of families strolling past as I watch. Cooling the kids off ahead of the heat. Summer time.

Not sure if I’ll have a report for you tomorrow but if i do it’ll be from the other side of the Pacific.

Catchy soon and stay cool!


Hot early and tiny but

Posted on January 7th, 2018 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Thought I’d beat the heat with an early bike ride. At Dee Why as I tap this out. There are people in the water all along the beach. Main attraction is keeping cool as for most part it’s too gutless and micro to catch – even on a mal. Tide is low and wind not a factor yet.

Guess I’ll ride up to Northy for a look…


Barely anything and mostly flat

Posted on January 6th, 2018 in At large.

Chasing tiny bumps on low tide at Northy 0620          .

Hello Friends,

Low tide early and light NE breeze ruffling the surface for the dawn patrol. The only place I saw a wave ridden was at Northy where, as the pic above shows, it was struggling to make the knee high mark. As the tide comes in to a 1.8 m high at 1230, the wind will ramp up and so it just may be possible to find a fat little bump somewhere. However, you’ll really need to dial down your expectations for anything beyond barely catchable dribble.

As of 0400 the MHL buoy was showing a metre of sub-6 sec SSE chop. And it looks as though the microscopic conditions prevail up and down the entire East Coast.

We’re in for an absolute stinker tomorrow but there might be a bit more NE wind chop to chase for the early. It’s set to go SE in the afternoon – which ought to help with the heat, but won’t do the tiny surf any favours.

From the look of the models, next week is going to be really small to flat with only short period and small wind chop.  One of the more hopeful data interpretations is showing some slight hope for south magnets on Wednesday morning. Hope for your sake that it plays out that way. I’ll of course be looking for a wave in southern California where at the moment it’s also really small – and cold. Postcards to come!

Have a great Saturday everyone!

 

South Narra nothin’

.

Marquesas micro bumps

.

At least he’s getting some exercise – near the pole 0630

.

All’s quiet at Dee Why

.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A low pressure trough is expected to bring a southerly change to the southern half of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 7 January

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 8 January

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending northwest to northeasterly during the morning then tending northeast to southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Paddling conditions excellent

Posted on January 5th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Not a hint of a line at the point at 0720

Up the beach, nothing going on

Kiddies almost as calm as a lap pool at 0720

Hello Friends,

If only we had swell. It’s a beautiful morning in every respect otherwise; light offshore breeze, sunny skies, incoming tide… but it’s a lake.

And the outlook? Well the Goat’s latest ruminations are right here

Have a great Friday everyone!
 

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge to the north, directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds will turn north to northeasterly during Saturday as the high moves over the Tasman Sea and a trough approaches from the southwest. This trough will bring a brief southerly change is along the southern half of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 6 January

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 7 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 4th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 4 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There were some rideable waves in the lower reaches of the 1-2 metre range this morning for keen punters at some places open to pretty much dead South as a result of the strong SSE wind we had over the past couple of days, before the tide got into it. Boy that’s a long sentence for you to get stuck into if you want. Lower reaches ??? He’s talking in riddles.

But they’ve already eased back.  See… Shorter sentences make more sense and are easier to read. But I don’t have time to rewrite it more nicer.

What’s that you say?? …Just get on with it???

Quick summary for you… Small waves. Possibly some mal rides at the right tides, right places. Keep your eyes open for opportunities.  Enjoy the warm water and warmer weather. Watch the extreme UVs, plus a couple of days when the Bureau says there might be Tstorms, and take precautions. Stay cool. And keep smiling. (I know they aren’t sentences… Just consider them to be bullet points to start preparing you for the working and study world soon). Keep smiling I said!

Friday: maybe around 1 metre or so or less at places open to dead South

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: around 1 metre or so of North East windswell

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: ditto but a little bit bigger

Wednesday: about the same as Tuesday, maybe a touch more

Thursday: about 1 metre or so North East

In the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan  4 04:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan  4 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is around 22,23… nice

Lots of nice warm water up and down the East Coast, from Byron 26 to Eden 22.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

The king tides (Highs over 2 metres) we’ve had over the past few days will gradually start to ease back. But they will still be high Highs and low Lows (say that quickly) for a while.

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 25
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Cloudy.Sydney25
Cloudy.Penrith31
Cloudy.Liverpool29
Cloudy.Terrey Hills25
Cloudy.Richmond31
Cloudy.Parramatta28
Cloudy.Campbelltown29
Cloudy.Bondi22

 

Friday 5 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 6 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 7 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 37
Hot and mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Very hot and mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then shifting south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 8 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 33
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 9 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 10 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Near flatness

Posted on January 4th, 2018 in Dee Why.

SUP rider on the hunt for a bump

Might be an ankle to knee high something

Hello Friends,

There seemed to be very slightly more activity than yesterday, but it’s still just barely catchable looking at Dee Why. The MHL buoy was showing 1.6 m of 8-sec of SSE (149°) wind bump – which the Bureau says will fade later in the day.

Wind was light from the SW at 0800 and the King tide was coming into a 2.05 m high at 1045. The grey skies may sprinkle on us this morning too. The day’s high is set to be 25 and UV will be 13 (extreme) from 0840 to 1710. Water temp is around 22.

The Goat should be along later today with his usual weekend and week ahead outlook. If the models are anything to go by, my guess is that he’ll be calling it small to flat for another week. I’ll be sending postcards from Cali from next week, and right now it would seem I’ll find the same abject flatness but with 15° water. There does seem to be some hope for a one-day wonder pulse Weds-ish though…

Have a great day everyone and go well with your plans!

 

Weather Situation

A trough lies to the northeast of the state, while high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge through Victoria to the New South Wales Coast, promoting southerly winds along the coast. This high is moving east and is expected to be centred over the Tasman Sea on Friday, with winds turning northeasterly during Friday and Saturday as a result. A cold front will then skim across the south of the state on Sunday, bringing a southerly change to southern and central waters.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 5 January

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 6 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

 

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