Posts in Surf Reports

Flatness is upon us

Posted on May 24th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Terrible looking air quality off to the south this morning and as for the surf, the MHL spectral chart tells the story – it’s not a pretty picture.
 

If you can find anything surfable today, my hat’s off to you!

Outlook you ask? Well the Goat has that for you right hereTG’s Surf Forecast.

Me, I’m off to the city soon to lend moral support to Extinction Rebellion. The young ones need to know that at least a few of us seniors care more about their future than coal, franking credits, etc.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on May 23rd, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

TG’s Surf Forecast issued Thursday 23 May 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well some sets last week were pushing in from a long way out – I know cause they were dropping on my head.

I hope you got a wave, because it’ll be a mixed bag this week!

Friday: around 1 metre or so East

Saturday: around 1 metre or less North East

Sunday: ditto.. maybe a little bigger sets

Monday: getting flattish

Tuesday: coming up during the day into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places, lot of SW in it but sets possibly getting in to protected corners with, then going down

Wednesday: down again towards flatness

Thursday: Pretty flattish.

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu May 23 10:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu May 23 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.050,150.833,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 12:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Friday 24 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 24
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

The chance of fog in the early morning, mainly in the west. Sunny day. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 12:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 25 May

Summary
Min 14
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 12:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 26 May

Summary
Min 15
Max 24
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 11:20 am to 12:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 27 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 28 May

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h turning northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 29 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 30 May

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.


Faded and fading

Posted on May 23rd, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

After days of long period sneaker sets to keep things interesting, this morning sees the long period component fading out. Where yesterday we had the odd 15-second period set, this morning the MHL buoy is showing closer to 12 seconds with heights at sea of a metre. As a consequence the surf prospects have just about dried up. There were a few folks waiting around hopefully at the point this morning when I grabbed the snaps, but I didn’t see anyone in the water up the beach toward No Mans.

Outlook according to the models, is not a happy picture for surfing. Both the ECM and Wavewatch models are telling us to expect flat to near flat for the next week. The only glimmer of hope is on the ECM for Saturday 1 June when it projects the arrival of some 9-sec 2.3 metre south swell. That’s right out at the limit of the models’ projections, so I wouldn’t be locking it into the schedule just yet.

A head’s up for all the surf photographers out there. To celebrate International Surfing Day on the 20th of June, Surfrider Foundation is pulling together a Spirit of Surfing photo competition. We’re still getting the details set up, so stay tuned for details…

Have a great day everyone!

Hopefuls waitng for one last rideable one at 0715

Only a faint line up the beach

Weather Situation

A weak low off central parts of the coast will dissipate later today as a high pressure system over southeastern Australia shifts to the Tasman Sea. Generally light winds tend moderate northerly along the south coast, and extend to central areas from late this evening. Little change is expected until the next cold front moves through on Sunday and Monday, with winds shifting fresh southwesterly.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Inshore winds tend southwesterly about 10 knots this morning. Otherwise, winds variable about 10 knots tending northerly late this evening.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday 24 May

Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.

Saturday 25 May

Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending northerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

TIDES THU 23 MAY

LOW5:41 am
0.52 m
HIGH11:39 am
1.30 m
LOW5:00 pm
0.75 m
HIGH11:31 pm
1.70 m

Smoked out early

Posted on May 22nd, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Burning off around the Sydney basin resulted in low visibility and air quality was fair to poor. Also, I couldn’t get a picture of the beach first up this morning. The MHL buoy at 0500 was detecting 1.4 metres at 13 seconds from the SSE (154°), so if you got waves yesterday, I’d be checking there again today. A week ago the models were telling us to expect abject flatness by now. From the numbers, I’d be expecting mostly knee to waist at better exposures, but with the very occasional bigger set keeping things interesting. Wind is set to shift around to the SE this morning, but not be too vigorous. Tide was low a little after 0400 and will be back to a moderate 1.3 m high at 1050.

Outlook is for surf options to fade to flat soon and to stay that way well into next week. Both the ECM and Wavewatch models are showing short period and tiny swell through to at least Monday. But the very long range outlook is currently more hopeful for late next week…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is slowly moving east and weakening, while maintaining a ridge across the state. This ridge will be the dominating feature over the northern half of the coast for much of the week, while a weak low pressure system off the South Coast will direct a moderate southerly wind change, expected to Hunter Coast by the end of today. The low is expected to move offshore later Thursday, and the ridge extend along the entire coast.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
West to southwesterly below 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this evening.

Thursday 23 May

Winds
Southerly about 10 knots becoming west to southwesterly early in the morning then becoming north to northwesterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday 24 May

Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Sunny day.

Waves again for Tuesday morning

Posted on May 21st, 2019 in Dee Why.

Update: musta seen pulse of the day because at point now and it’s really inconsistent and mostly waist high on sets. Lots people up at the lugga and the bombies but only a few from there south. Size looks better but inconsistent too.

Hello Friends,
Good news, we have shoulder plus on the bigger sets at Dee Why this morning. The point seemed to be liking the combo of 9-10 kts of NW wind, a mid tide (it’s high at 1000) and 14-sec 1.4 metre swell out of the SSE. An easy dozen folks were on it, but it looked pretty consistent considering, so maybe not too bad. Thoughts on outlook later.

Hazard reduction burns plus winter inversion = air pollution in the city

And another set

Another set

Lines up the beach 0720

Set arrives at the point 0720

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is slowly moving east and weakening, while maintaining a ridge across the state. This ridge will be the dominating feature over the northern half of the coast much of the week, whilst a weak trough is bringing a southerly change over the South Coast. This trough is expected to develop into a weak low pressure system off the South Coast or Illawarra Coast by late tonight or early Wednesday, bringing a moderate southerly wind change to Hunter Coast by the end of Wednesday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northwesterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Wednesday 22 May
Winds
Westerly about 10 knots turning south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots about the midday.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 23 May
Winds
South to southwesterly about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters

This forecast is also available via scheduled broadcasts on marine radio.
Latest Coastal Observations
Tide Predictions
Marine Knowledge Centre – explanations and definitions
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:05 pm EST Tuesday.
Product IDN11009


Clean and fun size at south magnets

Posted on May 20th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Clean, glassy and shoulder high on the bigger sets this morning from about No Mans to the Lugga. At 0600 the MHL Sydney buoy was seeing 1.2 at 14 seconds from the SSE. Wind was lightly offshore when I grabbed the pics and while it will pick up a little and swing to the NW, it shouldn’t be too much of a factor until later this afternoon. There’s a 1.48 m high at 0920 and then it’ll be back to a 0.5 m low at 1500. Water is an unseasonable 23C which of course is wonderful for surfing, but it’s also well above the 20.7C historical average for this time of year. Mother Nature is whispering warnings.

The long period swell giving us fun waves this morning could stick around through tomorrow, but beyond that, it currently looks like being very small to flat. So get out and enjoy if you can because it could be another week plus before we see a change to the overall patterns wavewise.

 

Looks promising, but this one didn’t pan out

Made it for some distance too

Nice section near the pole

Tiny at the point

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near the New South Wales coast is expected to slowly drift over the Tasman Sea over the coming days, maintaining a ridge across the state. This ridge will be the dominating feature over much of the new week, apart from the cold front skimming to the south of the state today, that will bring a weak southerly change to the South Coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots early in the morning then decreasing to about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 21 May

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to below 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming north to northeasterly in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 22 May

Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots becoming westerly during the morning then becoming north to northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday and still some lines coming in

Posted on May 19th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another mild and sunny morning in Sydney. We heard a shower last night and there were a few clouds about as the day got started. We still have a metre and a bit of long period – and therefore very straight – 15-second period SSE swell coming in. At Dee Why I saw waist to chest high sets at the point and along the beach, but the latter continues to be 90% shutdowns.

Wind was lightly offshore early and our high tide was a 1.56 at 0830. The breeze should settle into a weak onshore later and swell seems likely to trundle along at more or less the current intensity for the next 24 hours. Looking at the rest of the week though, prospects are not too interesting. All the models are showing extremely tiny to flat conditions in our immediate future.

Water is clean and 22C (close to 2C above historical average).

(The day after our election and your correspondent is profoundly grateful to live in a democracy but I am very much among the millions feeling deflated by the business as usual results.  We’ve been warned by the IPCC that we must cut carbon pollution in half by 2030 to have even a hope of staying under 1.5C heating. We’re over 1C now. It’s an emergency already. The Great Barrier Reef is suffering catastrophic bleaching over vast areas, 1 million species are threatened with extinction as our global ecosystem reels under the relentless pressure of Homo sapiens, and still, my generation* – the baby boomers – mostly shrugs and turns away, content to leave it to the kids and grandkids to deal with as best they can.)

*Obviously there are many boomers working hard not to leave a worse world to their kids!

Waist plusses on sets at the point and along the breach at 0815

No Mans set

Set at the point

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near the New South Wales coast is expected to slowly drift over the Tasman Sea over the coming days. During the next couple of days northerly winds will increase over the southern waters ahead of a cold front that is forecast to cross to the south of the state on Monday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 20 May

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning then decreasing to about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 21 May

Winds
Northwesterly about 10 knots tending northerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Chest to shoulder at magnets but straight as

Posted on May 18th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

There are waves this monring, but shutdowns are the rule. Is it some kind of metaphor? Wind was light WSW at 10kts early, but it’s set to go south (although not pick up much) later. You need to hit the south swell magnets to get a wave.
Gotta run, doing handing out at my local polling station!

Looks makeable, but it wasn’t

One at the point and one at the beach

Nup, not makeable aat No Mans

Super straight lines

Northy has a few hopefuls, but not the spot really

South Narrabeen patterned


Sunny little surf day

Posted on May 17th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Looks like a pretty similar setup to yesterday, with around a metre and a tiny bit at 12-13 seconds from the SE to SSE. Wind was out the WNW early and the call is for light and variable across the day – ie probably light onshores by late morning. Water is an absurd 22C. Tide was high at 0650 and will be back to a lowish low at 1300.
Dee Why wasn’t quite as big as Curly yesterday, but from about No Mans north, it was in the waist with the odd shoulder set. If you want more size, might be worth a look at Curly. It was very straight but a foot bigger than DY.
Go well with your Friday one and all!

Little wace gets caught at No Mans – looking pretty straight though

Small to tiny but catchable at the point 0720

Kiddies producing the odd little curl

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over southeast Australia is expected to remain almost stationary during the next few days. Later on the weekend it should shift to the Tasman Sea, before a cold front skims across southern New South Wales on Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 18 May

Winds
West to northwesterly about 10 knots becoming south to southwesterly before dawn.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 19 May

Winds
South to southeasterly below 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on May 16th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 16 May 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fabulous weather, fabulous water, and what can you say about the waves??

Sometimes they’ve been ok… sometimes not.

The outlook for the week ahead is for mostly more good weather… and mostly more not so good waves.

But who knows… with mostly light winds expected, you might be able to catch a wave at the right tide, right place with the right board…

Let’s keep it simple:

Friday through Wednesday: 1 metre or less at places open to dead South; flat elsewhere

And then Thursday: smaller still! maybe just flat.

Good Luck!  And just chillax.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu May 16 06:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu May 16 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a balmy 22.

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Clear. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Friday 17 May

Summary
Min 12
Max 23
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. The chance of morning fog, mainly in the west. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 18 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 23
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. The chance of morning fog, mainly in the west. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 19 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 20 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Tuesday 21 May

Summary
Min 14
Max 26
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Wednesday 22 May

Summary
Min 14
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower later in the day. Light winds.

Thursday 23 May

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:45 am EST Friday.


 

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