Posts in Surf Reports

Waves for the morning sesh

Posted on February 24th, 2018 in At large.

Long waits for little set waves like this at 0640

Sunny start to Saturday

South Narrabeen looking very crunchy

North Narra doing a little bit with the swell

Near the lugga at 0640

Kiddies showing the odd set

Hello Friends,

Light north breeze blowing this morning when I checked it for the first time around 0630. Skies were largely clear and waves looked to be smaller than yesterday. The MHL buoy was showing 1.7 m from the east at 10 seconds as of 0500, so there were still some head high wave faces to be encountered. Tide is dropping to a lowish 0.6 m low at 1000 and that means waves often start out soft on the take off before ending abruptly in a crunching close out. Conditions are definitely tricky at the magnets and beginners should be particularly cautious.

Wind is going to come around to NE later and as it does it’ll ramp up into the high end of the 15-25 kt range. This morning should be sunny, but by late this afternoon as we move into a couple of days of much needed rain.

We’re facing the prospect of rain, showers and SE wind through to Tuesday. Waves across the period are not looking great – mainly short period and

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the north, generating fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. An approaching cold front is expected to bring a vigorous southerly change to the southern coast later Saturday, extending through to the north on Sunday and Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the late afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore during this afternoon and early evening.

Sunday 25 February

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly early in the morning then tending southeasterly in the evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers.

Monday 26 February

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Messy but sizable

Posted on February 23rd, 2018 in Manly, Surf Reports.

A few postcards from torn up but biggish Manly for you. Low tide plus light but steady ne wind was making for treacherous conditions. Lots of one turn wonder waves and unmakeable chaotic shutdowns. The crowd was undeterred.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 22nd, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

How about that pop up surf today!?   Smaller yesterday than it’s been, and this morning… wave height was 1-1.3 metres SE, and then… by 6pm offshore it was clicking 3 -5.7 metres SE!

My neighbour said around 2 pm ‘it’s too big for you’… I ignored that and kept doing what I was doing because he says that when it’s ankle high.

So I got a surprise later to see swell pumping at several places … And yes, it was too big for me at many places! Realistically, fast overhead tubes are not for me, or for most people.

So what’s happening…

Waves all week… though of varying size, suitability and quality…You’ll just have to be agile…. (oh how I love that word)…. and work around how the following might suit you:

Friday: down from this arvo’s pop up surf, but still in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range with sets East South East

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range, but more benign East/ East North East, NE wind-affected later in the day

Sunday: 1-2 metre range East North East, then starting to come up form the S with a windy Southerly change

Monday: big early on at places that get dead south swell, with wind to match…say around 2-3 metres, gradually easing back

Tuesday: 1-2 metre range with sets around 2 metres or so, dead South places only

Wednesday:1-2 metre range with punchier sets, say 2, 2+ metres South East

Thursday: 1-2 metre range, with some solid sets around 2 metres East/ South East

See if you can plot yourself a course around those little numbers

Stay safe in the Surf. Have fun.

TG

 

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Feb 22 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb 22 08:30:00 2018

Wind

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 24

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 23 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 24 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 31
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 25 February

Summary
Min 22
Max 28
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 26 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 27 February

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 28 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 1 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


A little smaller but still a few waves around this morning

Posted on February 22nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Crew at the point as of 0710

A few hopefuls looking around at No Mans

Hello Friends,

Swell’s cogged down a notch overnight. As of 0400 it was 1.7 m at 10 sec from 156 degrees. At 0720 wind was 3 kts out of the WNW at North Head. Tide was low at 0740 and will be back to a 1.4 m high at 1340. There was a small crowd at Dee Why point when I grabbed the snaps a little after 0700. Waves looked to be in the waist to chest plus range and surface conditions were smooth. Lines were showing up the beach toward No Mans as well. Given the swell direction, I’d say there should be waves pretty much everywhere they were yesterday. Ocean is a cozy 24oC.

The Goat will be along later with his prognostications of a surfing sort. From my reading of this morning’s swell models the average period looks like dropping into the gutless sub-10 sec range over the weekend, but may come back up a little next week…

Have yourself a top old Thursday everyone and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southwest Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the north, resulting in generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds are expected to shift more northerly at the end of the week as the high drifts further east and a cold front approaches from the southwest. This front will bring a southerly change to the southern coast later Saturday, extending through to the north on Sunday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 23 February

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre in the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 24 February

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

A few lumpy bumps around this morning

Posted on February 21st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Small but definitely rideable at 0715

Possibilities up the beach toward No Mans

Another set at the point

Hello Friends,

Waves were in the waist to chest high range at the point and along the Dee Why end of the beach this morning at around 0715. Surface conditions were sort of choppy and lumpy but wind was light westerly for the early but it should gradually swing around to the east-SE but not get too strong. Plus the swell should continue at more or less the same level. Next tide is a 1.5 m high at 1240 and weather should stay partly cloudy all day. Ocean is 24oC.
Outlook is for energy levels to fade back into the marginal range over the next 24 hours.
So get in if you can and however it plays out, have a great day one and all!

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea with a ridge to the north/northwest is directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending east to southeasterly around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 22 February

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending easterly below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy.

Friday 23 February

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Do something else day

Posted on February 20th, 2018 in At large.

The Kick not kicking

Nothing doing at Collaroy

Nice sky

Exciting conditions at Collaroy

Brownwater teasing but weak and brief

 
Hello Friends,

A grim morning from a surfing perspective. Wind was blowing hard from the SSE early, so the only hope is really protected corners like Collaroy. Unfortunately, as the pictures show, there’s not enough swell energy from the right direction to light the place up. Instead it was weak, confused and small.
The MHL buoy was seeing a mix of NNE and S swell component. The dominant energy was coming from the south at 13 seconds apart but was only averaging around 1.5 metres.
So, a day to give it a miss.
Tomorrow the wind should throttle back, but it’ll still be onshore and the swell looks likely to be smaller. On Thursday the wind goes back to the NE quarter and it should be light early when, the Bureau says, we could also see a little bump in the south swell energy. Friday looks similar at this stage. Weather should be cloudy across the period.
Have yourself a great Tuesday everyone and get up to some good where you can!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system south of Tasmania with a ridge to the north is directing southeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds will turn southeast to northeasterly during Wednesday as the high moves east across the southern Tasman Sea maintaining the ridge to the northwest.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers early this morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the early morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 21 February

Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 22 February

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Cloudy.

Not amazing at Northy

Posted on February 19th, 2018 in North Narrabeen, Surf Reports.

Inconsistent and surprisingly weak looking at North Narrabeen where a small crowd is hanging around waiting for the odd shoulder high wave face to turn up. Rides were short and you had to work to stay in the section.


Swell continues on Monday

Posted on February 19th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Small waves at the point 0700

Little lines at No Mans

Hello Friends,
After peaking late yesterday evening at around the 2 metre mark out at sea, this morning sees it dropping back to 1.7 m at 12 sec from the south and NE. Surface conditions were relatively smooth early thanks to a light easterly breeze. It should go SE later and pick up into the 10-15 kts by noon. Tide was low at 0500 and is coming into a 1.67 m high at 1125.

There were three or four people in the water at the point when I grabbed the snaps. It looked to be in the waist high range with the odd chest-ish sets. But the NE component of the swell was quite episodic yesterday so I imagine it’s the same today and in fact the Bureau has posted a warning for large and powerful surf conditions. If you’re a beginner, you really need to watch the conditions for awhile before diving in at a magnet spot.

The latest modelling from the Bureau shows the NE swell building across the next 24 hours. Unfortunately the wind is going to pick up from the SE this afternoon and by tomorrow morning it’ll be belting along at 20-25 kts. So not the best outlook for surfin’. And it could be Thursday before the wind starts to relent.

Go well with you adventures today and yep, I’m likely to post a few more pics later, so maybe check back from time to time.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system is centred south of the Bight, while a broad area of low pressure lies over inland New South Wales. Tropical Cyclone Gita lies over the northern central Tasman Sea. The high is expected to move to the south of Tasmania today and to the southern Tasman Sea on Tuesday. The cyclone is expected to pass to the east of Lord Howe Island today then to turn southeast towards New Zealand. Between the two systems a fresh to strong southeasterly airstream will develop on the New South Wales coast today then should gradually ease over the following days.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Easterly about 10 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 20 February

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 21 February

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy.

Sizable sets this morning

Posted on February 18th, 2018 in At large.

Sole rider pulls into one at Gardens

Lefts and rights at Northy for the Sunday crowds

Standing room only at the point

Another set arrives at the Pole

Lining up and shutting down the order of the day on sets at Dee Why beach, 0700

Point rider

Bigger sets had some heft

 

Hello Friends,

Had a look around at about 0700 this morning to see what the swell was doing. It’s an interesting mix of south and NE energy. Wave faces on the sets are solidly overhead. I’d call it 1.5x. The problem is that the swell is mature and that means the beach break options are seeing major shutdown action, particular when the bigger sets roll in. The point at Dee Why was very well attended (I counted about 25 people at 0700) and there was something of a wait for the bigger sets, but it wasn’t bad. Up the beach toward the Pole sets looked a bit bigger, but there was the shutting down problem. Around at Collaroy-Narrabeen, the beaches were looking peak-free but at Northy people were finding something. (I had a look at Northy yesterday and at midday at least, the quality was not great. The banks just weren’t operating at their usual high standard.)
Surface conditions were reasonably smooth for the early session. Wind will pick up and be 15-20 kts NE by this afternoon. Tide is coming into a 1.7 m high at 1045. It should be mostly sunny after the morning cloud burns off and our high is set to be 29. Water is a crazy 25.

Swell should continue to pump for the next few days with early mornings being the best hope for smooth conditions. With luck there’ll be something surfable all week…

Have a top old Sunday and know your limits (especially you beginners!)

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea is directing southeasterly winds along the north coast and northeasterly winds along the south coast. As the high moves further east, an approaching front over the southern ocean will bring a southerly change to the south coast later tonight or early Monday. In the wake of the front, a new high pressure system will strengthen to the south of Tasmania and extend a ridge along the New South Wales coast, resulting in fresh to strong south to southeasterly winds along the entire coast from late Monday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 19 February

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 20 February

Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 2.5 metres, tending easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

A few piccies from Curly around midday

Posted on February 17th, 2018 in At large.

Curly was about the cleanest looking spot I saw this morning – radically better than the slop fest I enjoyed with three others at the point an hour before. Even so, Curly was pretty weak looking and kinda fat. Lovely day though and good to be in the water.

The crew at one of the North Curly peaks around 1230

Watching a set

Maybe 5 metres from dry sand…

Curly somewhat fat but sets looked ok

South Curly more wind affected

 


 

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