Posts in At large

Join the Strike 4 Climate FRI 20 September

Posted on September 19th, 2019 in At large, Top stories.

Join us at the Domain!

-Don

Click to visit schoolstrike4climate.com

We are in the thick of the climate crisis.

Yet we just elected a Government that wants to open the

floodgates to new coal, oil and gas projects that put all of us at risk.

We are already hurting from the impacts of climate change.

If we don’t act now to transition fairly and swiftly away from coal,

oil & gas to 100% renewable energy for all, this will only get worse.

But it’s going to take all of us working together to succeed.

Join us on September 20 – three days out from the UN’s Emergency Climate Summit — by taking the day off school, uni or work to show our politicians that we’re serious about climate action.

The world isn’t waiting so neither are we.

SchoolStrikeForClimate on Facebook


Wild and rainy morning

Posted on September 18th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

20-25 kts of southerly and rain this morning along the beaches. As of 0600 the MHL buoy was seeing 4.5 metres of SE swell at 10 seconds apart. That’s more than sufficient to wrap around Longy into the Collaroy surf zone as the WRL cam image from 0700 shows below. But, if you were thinking of going for surf, I’d reconsider. Warriewood STC had a bypass event yesterday evening and all the run-off has lead to Beachwatch issuing ‘Pollution likely’ warnings for pretty much all of the northern beaches and eastern suburbs spots.

It looks as though we’re likely to have rainy weather through tomorrow with maybe a break on Friday and then more showery weather into early next week. Wind is set to shift from the southerly quarters around to the north too. On current modelling it looks as though we’re in for stiff N-NE wind through to Saturday night.

Stay dry and have a great Wednesday!

WRL cam view of Collaroy at 0700

Weather Situation
A cold front that move through most of New south Wales yesterday is continuing to linger as a low pressure trough in the states northeast this afternoon. A low pressure system is currently developing within this trough, offshore near to Port Stephens. This will reinforce a vigorous southerly flow along much of the coast during the next 24 hours, with likely gales about central parts of the coast. The low should weaken during Wednesday and Thursday as a high pressure system becomes dominant over the Tasman Sea, pushing a ridge into New South Wales, and bringing a gradual return to northeasterly winds. Another cold front looks set to arrive on the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds turning easterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
East to southeasterly 2 to 3 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 19 September
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the evening then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday 20 September
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly below 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.


The full gamut

Posted on September 10th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Out at sea the ocean is pretty rugged looking this morning, but inshore the light (and cold) westerly was keeping things comparatively clean in the south corners. After peaking at close to 5 metres last night, as of 0700 swell was 3.7 metres from 175° (basically dead south) at nearly 11 seconds apart. So waves were in the waist and a bit range at Collaroy and 2x that at Dee Why. High tide was at 0600 this morning and is now dropping to the low at 1130. Swell should fade slowly during the day, but not by a huge amount.  Tomorrow should see a few more surf options for the early as we get into the chest to head high range at magnets. Thursday is fade out day with maybe a few little fun ones in the morning. Right now the weekend looks potentially hopeful on some modelling…

A few piccies for you…

You could have had Long Reef to yourself this morning.

That’d be an overhead wave, right?

Slotted at the point

Not many braving the conditions along the beach at Dee Why

Thundering comber at Collaroy 0745

Last night’s swell moved a lot of sand away from the Collaroy end of the beach

Piling up a sand berm in front of the seawall works at Collaroy.

Probably not the day for the Narrabeen stretch

 

 

Weather Situation
A deep low pressure system lies over the Tasman Sea, while a high is centred near the Bight. The pressure difference between these systems is generating vigorous south to southwesterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Rough seas and an increasing swell are accompanying these winds. Conditions are forecast to ease today and Wednesday as the low moves further away to the east, and the high drifts overhead. Late on Thursday and during Friday a southerly change is expected as a front clips the south.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 5 metres, decreasing to 3 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 11 September
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 12 September
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning westerly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Sunny, windy and waves

Posted on September 9th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

2.5 m at 10 seconds from 160° (SSE) according to the Sydney MHL buoy 0800 report. At North Head wind was west at 12-17 kts as of 0930. As of 0830 when I looked at Curly, set wave faces in the middle of the beach were shoulder plus and the wind was blowing hard. There were three or four hardy types in the water as tide was dropping to the 1035 low. Around the corner at Dee Why there were half a dozen folks at the point contending with equally forceful offshores and slightly smaller waves. There looked to be a fair amount of bump out on the horizon and the forecast says we can expect the swell to come up dramatically soon (the Bureau’s call is for 4-6 metres by midday!). Unfortunately the wind will be blowing twice as hard, so conditions will be photogenic, but also very challenging to actually surf.
Swell should power through the night and still be impressive tomorrow morning. Sadly the wind is expected to be southerly and gale force, so surf options will be severely limited. Right now it looks as though most of us will be waiting until Wednesday for things to simmer down enough.
Have a great Monday and check back later because my current plan is to go out with my camera when the swell starts macking.

Dee Why point 0845

Kiddies

Rocking off and bumpy horizon

Benediction

Curly 0830

Weather Situation
A deep low pressure system over the Tasman Sea is generating vigorous southwesterly winds over New South Wales Waters, with an associated trough moving northward along the coast, bringing a surge of gale force south to southwesterly winds to New South Wales Waters. Winds will ease during Tuesday and Wednesday as the low reaches New Zealand and as a high pressure system approaches from the west.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots, turning south to southwesterly 35 to 45 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres, increasing to 4 to 5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 4 to 6 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 10 September
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 30 to 40 knots decreasing to 25 to 30 knots before dawn, decreasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
3 to 5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 5 metres, decreasing to 3 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 11 September
W
inds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 3 metres, tending southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy


Super micro Saturday

Posted on September 7th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

As of 0630 the chilly NW wind was blowing 8-10 kts under mostly clear skies. Out at sea, the sub one metre swell was coming from the SSE (160°) at 9 seconds. As the pictures show, the combination of strong offshore winds overnight and the weak little swell were adding up to not much of anything along the beaches. I’d call in ankle to knee high.

The westerly is going to ramp up as the day goes along but the swell won’t be improving, so surf prospects are dim.

We’re due for more strong westerlies tomorrow, but the Bureau and the models are showing an uptick on the swell front. Both the ECM and Wavewatch are predicting 1.5-.1.6 metres of 11 second dead south swell for Sunday. They diverge on Monday’s prospects with Wavewatch saying it’ll drop back to tiny across the day while the ECM sees a slight drop, but staying above a metre. Then they flip for Tuesday, with ECM predicting 3 metres from the south at 10 seconds in the morning, while Wavewatch says 4.7 metres south at 11 seconds. Interestingly the Bureau’s model shows swell swinging to the east for Tuesday. ECM reckons the wind will be SW at 17 kts, but Wavewatch says southerly at 19 kts. They both show swell dropping into the 2 metre range for Wednesday and then fading away to tiny by Friday.

Have yourself a top old Saturday everyone, and fingers crossed for Monday-Tuesday…

Weather Situation
A vigorous cold front that crossed the coast overnight is associated with a deepening low over the western Tasman Sea. This low should slowly move away to the east during the weekend as a large high pressure system slowly approaches New South Wales from the west.

First tracks of the morning at Long Reef

Super tiny down the beach at Kiddies

Bomb set at the lugga 0635

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 25 to 35 knots.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres, increasing to 4 to 6 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Sunday 8 September
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 30 to 35 knots turning southwesterly 25 to 40 knots in the morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
4 to 6 metres, decreasing below 4 metres later in the evening.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 9 September
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 40 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 4 to 7 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
South to easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Grey skies and solid swell for the keen

Posted on August 23rd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Still heaps of raw looking swell this morning, but very few people in the water as of 0800. Swell angle/period/tide not perfectly tuned for Dee Why point but that said, as the pictures show, there were still well overhead wave faces on the bigger ones. From the beach to Longy was just too chaotic and big to have attracted anyone. Maybe later as the swell fades those spots will start to be more inviting. Wind is set to weaken and drift around to the north this afternoon. And the forecast calls for sunny skies too.
First tide of the daylight hours was a low at 0700. We’re back to a 1.4 metre high at 1330.
As for the outlook, well the Goat has done his thing
Have a great Friday!

SUP pilot heads out for a closer look at Fishermans 0800

Near the lifeguard hut, Longy, a plausible section rolls through

Too lumpy for Long Reef bombies

Sizable sets still in the mix at Dee Why 0800

Has all the swell rearranged the banks at Dee Why?

The point with only 6 in the water (compared to 30 yesterday)

Point set

South Narrabeen

South of the Gardens

Yeah, naw for Northy and Gardens

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is drifting over southeast Australia in the wake of a series of cold fronts, and is expected to reach the Tasman Sea tonight. This will result in southerly winds easing then shifting northerly along most of the New South Wales coast during the next day or so, while a large and powerful swell gradually eases. The next cold front is set to bring a southerly change to southern and central parts during Sunday, continuing to the north on Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the afternoon then northerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 6 metres, decreasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 24 August
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 25 August
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Swell early, but lots more by lunchtime

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Swell should build dramatically. I haven’t had time to take a picture yet, but sets at exposed spots are solidly head to head and a bit this morning. Swell was SSE 2.8 metres at close to 14 seconds as of 0500 at the Sydney MHL buoy. As of 0700 the wind at North Head was still westerly at 10-13 kts – but the Bureau has a gale warning up, so the wind’s going to swing SW soon as it heads toward the 25-35 kt zone. First tide of the day was a low at 0615 and we’re currently heading toward a 1.4 m high at 1240 – by which time the swell should be rumbling as it builds to peak intensity this afternoon.

I will be out and about with the camera soon, so expect a piccie or two as the morning progresses. Meanwhile, here’s a shot from yesterday afternoon at the point…

.

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system is centred over the Bight while a series of cold fronts skim across southeast Australia, associated with a deep low to the south. This pattern is bringing vigorous winds and powerful swells to the New South Wales coast, with the worst of the conditions expected in most coastal areas later today. The last of the fronts will clear the region tonight, after which the high will drift across from the west. Winds will ease heading into Friday, although the swell will linger into the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots turning south to southwesterly 25 to 35 knots in the morning, reaching 40 knots offshore.
Seas
.2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the day.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 5 metres, increasing to 6 to 8 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Friday 23 August

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore at first, becoming variable about 10 knots in the afternoon then northerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 6 metres, decreasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 24 August

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning westerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing

Almost but not quite flat

Posted on August 17th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Hoped to see some swell this morning after seeing the Bureau’s call last night, but it’s still about the same as last night – ie ankle to knee with the odd plus at magnets. The MHL buoy was showing 0.8 meters from 152° at 16 seconds. There’s a 1.4 metre high at 0925 and then we’re back to low at 1505. The Eden buoy was showing 1.18 m at 15 seconds as of 0500, so maybe the forecast of a small increase will come true for us later. However, there’s nothing in the numbers to give great hope for a significant improvement.

Right now it looks as though we’ll be cooling our heels until late next week as none of the models are showing significant swell energy until around Thursday when it’s possible that we’ll get an energetic south pulse…

Have a great Saturday everyone!

 

All’s quiet at Northy

Patterns in the sand but no surf to speak of at Narrabeen

Wave getting ridden near the club at DY

A few hundred people putting up tray tables and fastening seatbelts for arrival

One hopeful at the point

Surf action near the lugga

Nothing doing at Butterbox

Good morning Saturday

.

Weather Situation

A cold front that crossed the state’s southern coast late yesterday is bringing a southerly change today, reaching the northern coast later today. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge will briefly form over the region today, before another, stronger, cold front sweeps across southeast Australia on Sunday and Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots early in the morning. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Sunday 18 August

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning then turning northeasterly 20 to 25 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 19 August

Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots tending west to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Sunny day.

Waves for Sunday

Posted on August 11th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Nice and chilly this morning, but as of 0730 the WNW wind wasn’t going as hard as anticipated and swell was showing. It’s probably around the 2 metre mark at sea and coming from the SSE at 12 seconds or so. That means it’s just grazing Dee Why point with the odd knee high thing along the rocks, but up the beach from about the Lagoon to Longy bombies, it’s delivering shoulder plus faces on the sets.
There’s a gale warning (see below) for 20-30 kts of westerly, so conditions are likely to get more challenging as the day progresses. Swell’s due to build across the next 24 hours, particularly as the wind comes around to the south tomorrow.
Tide was high at 0520 and is currently running out to the low at 1055. We should see a high of 16 and skies are set to be partly cloudy. Water temp has cogged down a degree or so and is now 17C according to the good folk from Beachwatch.
From here it looks as though we should have waves through to Wednesday.
Have fun!

Sets are into the head high range as of 0740

Near the Pole 0740

What we do…

Two in the sky

Lines starting to show at the point 0725

The lugga crew at it early

Weather Situation

A complex low pressure system to the south is sending a series of strong cold fronts sweeping across New South Wales, generating vigorous west to southwesterly winds over coastal areas. The last of these fronts is expected to clear the region early Monday, after which a high pressure system will drift across from the west, bringing a gradual return to light winds by mid-week.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore during the morning, turning southwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 12 August

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots during the morning, turning southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday, then decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by evening.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the morning and afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 13 August

Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tiny lines and too small to surf early

Posted on August 10th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

It’s snowing heavily down south and the air feels like it up here in Sydney. At 0700 the wind was 20-30 kts from the NW and swell was 1.4 metres from the SW, hence the lack of anything noteworthy along the beaches. As the Goat predicted, the roaring wind is holding any swell offshore. And the SW direction means most of it is heading off to northern New Zealand ande beyond.
Wind is going to stick around at this intensity and direction through tomorrow. Swell isn’t expected to do much today, but tomorrow the Bureau tells us toe expect it to build into the 2-3 metre range from the south. Again, the roaring wind could knock it down, so we’ll just have to see. I reckon Monday looks a better prospect as models show the wind moderating as the swell hangs in there.
Stay warm and catch you tomorrow!

Tiny lines at Dee Why beach 0650

A little more size up toward Longy

No dice at the point

Whipping offshore making the tiny line look heroic

Our star coming into view

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system to the south is sending a series of strong cold fronts sweeping across New South Wales, generating vigorous westerly winds over coastal areas. The last of these fronts is expected to clear the region early Monday, after which a high pressure system will drift across from the west, bringing a return to generally light winds.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 11 August
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore during the morning, turning southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 12 August
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning then decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.