Archive for July 2017

Cold and offshore

Posted on July 21st, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Icy wind but heaps of chest to head and a bit waves at the point thanks to around 3.2 metres of 11-sec south swell. Tide was a 1.4m high at 0610 and will be back to a 0.4m low at noon.
Wind was coming from the west at 13-20 kts as I tapped out these words. The Bureau says that both it and the swell should weaken a tiny bit around midday. There’s a 30% chance of a shower along the coast but it should mostly be partly cloudy today.
If you don’t mind a chilly change in the carpark, it shouldn’t be too bad once you’re in because the water is around 19C – which is about 10 degrees warmer than the air at 0745.
The Goat rolled out his forecast last night, so if you’re wondering about the outlook, have a look!

Plausible looking left at No Mans 0720

Offshore and icy at the point

Hardy crew on it at 0720

Weather Situation
A deep low pressure system near New Zealand and a high pressure system over southeast Australia are directing vigorous south to southwest winds along New South Wales coastal waters. The high is forecast to move slowly eastwards across New South Wales today and during the weekend, with coastal winds easing in response. Winds are expected to freshen and shift west to northwesterly on Sunday as a weak cold front moves across the south of the state.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots, decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 22 July
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting northwesterly during the morning. Winds reaching up to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 3 metres, tending southeasterly 3 to 4 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 23 July
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning westerly 20 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 20th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 20 July 2017:

Seven day outlook for Sydney:

What an interesting week ahead.  Even if you’re not going in the water it should be fun to watch.

Currently 3-4 metres offshore SSW but late today there were waves around 2 -2+ metres or so at places open to the South. Waves all week of varying size and mostly offshore conditions.  Should be interesting.

But no place for beginners, people who aren’t fit, and O Fs.

Friday: up from today, say 3-4 metres at dead South places and enough period to get into protected corners

Saturday: still around that size but South East and more oomph in the sets and more getting into protected corners

Sunday: easing back a little to 2-3 metres but still with long period oomphy sets

Monday: the offshore winds should knock it back a bit, but say 1-2 metre range dead South places

Tuesday: coming up again in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with solid period sets that’ll mean it should get into protected corners

Wednesday: something similar

Thursday: similar size and period but South East so it may appear bigger

Stay safe.

TG.

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 20 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 20 07:30:00 2017

Down in the Sea

Water temp

is hanging in there at 19-20

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Windy. Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds west to southwesterly 35 to 45 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 21 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Frost in the west at night. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

 

Saturday 22 July

Summary
Min 4
Max 19
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Patchy fog in the outer west in the early morning. Frost in the morning, mainly in the west. Light winds.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 23 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 24 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 20
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly during the morning.

Tuesday 25 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 20
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Wednesday 26 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 27 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.


Dee Why trying

Posted on July 20th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

20 people at the point trying to will sets to appear but the waits were long and the waist to chest high sets for the most part surprisingly gutless. A similar number just up the beach from the club were having at least as much trouble finding something makeable among the shutdowns

 Offshore and sunny though!


Curly news

Posted on July 20th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

The straight south angle of the swell means it’s almost double the size of Manly. Sets are head and a bit along the mid south zone where the bulk of people are surfing. It’s really lined up so most waves are closing out – particularly on the sets. Not sure the dropping tide will help either.


Just barely at Manly

Posted on July 20th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Queenscliff picking up the odd knee to waist high set this morning. You need to be patient though.


Swell perked overnight

Posted on July 20th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Clear skies, chilly and light WNW breezes on tap as Thursday got started. It was utterly flat at sunset yesterday but overnight the swell jumped to 3 metres offshore. At 0500 it was coming from the south at close to 11 seconds apart. As the pictures show it was around the chest high range on sets at the point and probably a little bigger up the beach. Tide was high at 0500 and is now dropping to a 0.4m low at 1100.
The Bureau tells us the wind’ll be picking up and reaching 15-20 kts this morning from the w-sw. This afternoon it’s supposed to settle to the SW and be a strong 25-30 kts. Swell looks to have peaked around 0400 and the forecast says we can expect it to drop this afternoon before again pulsing up overnight.
I’ll try to get some more pics up later this morning, so check back for the latest.
Should be worth a look around for a wave this morning so good luck if you’re in a position to go hunting!

Activity at No Mans around 0700

Waves at the point and a crowd to meet them too

Waves are back at the point


Weather Situation
A high pressure system over southeastern Australia with a ridge to the north and a deep low pressure system near New Zealand are directing vigorous south to southwesterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds will ease during Friday as the low moves to the southeast. The high expected to strengthen the ridge to the west during Saturday and winds should turn westerly.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots tending west to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning then becoming southwesterly 25 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon, then increasing to 2 to 3 metres later in the evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 60% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Friday 21 July
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots turning southerly 20 to 30 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere.
Saturday 22 July
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting northwesterly during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
South to southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


It’s a lake

Posted on July 19th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Minimal swell plus days of offshores has delivered us near perfect flatness this morning. At 0700 there was no way you’d catch anything, anywhere along the beaches. There was less than half a metre of 3-second north breeze bump.
The good news? This should be the nadir of the flatness according to the Bureau. Energy levels should gradually increase slightly by the end of the day and then overnight a south pulse should start to fill in and tomorrow morning the call is for 2-3 metres of swell with strong SW wind. And the models are still showing the 10-12 sec south to SSE swell staying above the 2 metre mark into Sunday.
But for now, it’s flat as a tack.
Enjoy your Wednesday everyone!

Weather Situation
A deepening, slow moving low in the Tasman will direct a vigorous cool southwesterly airstream over New South Wales on Wednesday and Thursday. As a low stalls near New Zealand, a high will expand from the west to be centred over the state on Friday and Saturday with winds becoming light by the weekend.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots turning southwesterly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon and evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Below 0.5 metres, tending south to southwesterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Thursday 20 July
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots tending west to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots in the morning then becoming southwesterly 25 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres during the afternoon, then increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 50% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Friday 21 July
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southerly during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.


Still quiet but…

Posted on July 18th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
This morning sees even less swell than yesterday. At 0500 the MHL buoy was detecting just 0.6 m of 13 sec SE swell. And that means we’re seeing ankle to maybe knee high ripples along our beaches. So, I guess the good news is that it can only go up from here.
For the last week the swell models have shown a south pulse arriving mid week and this morning’s call from the Bureau confirms it’s still very much in prospect. Although it’ll likely still be near flat tomorrow morning with strong westerlies but by lunchtime as the wind intensifies and swings SW, a 2-3 metre south pulse should start to fill in. And it looks like gradually building to a peak around Friday when south magnets could be seeing double overhead sets… and the wind is expected to be W-SW too.
With luck the energy will stick around through the weekend.
So, on that cheerful note, may I wish you a happy and productive day!

Flat at Dee Why on a sunny Tuesday morning

Lorikeets flash past the RealSurf crows nest

Weather Situation
A low pressure system southwest of Tasmania is slowly moving and associated troughs/fronts are crossing southeastern Australia. West to northwesterly winds along the New South Wales coast will turn vigorous southwesterly during Wednesday as the low moves over the southern Tasman Sea. South to southwesterly airstream will persist along NSW coast in a wake of the low on Thursday and Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending westerly in the evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Wednesday 19 July
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots early in the morning then tending southwesterly 25 to 30 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Below 1 metres at first, tending southerly 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Thursday 20 July
Winds
West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Very small to flat at Dee Why this morning

Posted on July 17th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Another beautiful morning out there as Monday got going. Surface conditions were smooth but, as the pictures show, there wasn’t anyone in the water at the point or up the beach. The MHL buoy was showing less than a metre of 13 second SE swell. That 13 sec period does make me wonder if there might be the very occasional catchable set if you happened to be in the right spot…
Not that it matters much, but tide is low at 0805 and then it’ll run into a 1.5m high at 1435.
Weather should be partly cloudy with a high of 20 and light NW wind.
This morning’s maps from the Bureau look interesting from tomorrow afternoon/evening onward. Right now it looks as though the Tasman could start to get active but that the energy will be going away from us at first. Sometime late Wednesday to early Thursday the swell goes around to the south (2.5m @10-11s) while the wind stays offshore and skies are sunny…
So keep on smilin’ the good stuff is comin’!

No sign of a line at 0710

City warming in the sun

No takers at Dee Why as of 0710


You’ll have to hunt around

Posted on July 16th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Mostly sunny skies and light westerly breezes as Sunday kicked off. A perfect beach day for Sydney in every respect but one. Swell is a metre at 8 seconds from the south, so it’s up a tiny bit since yesterday. Dee Why however still didn’t look surfable from the RealSurf crows nest. Yesterday afternoon I saw knee to waist high waves at Curly, so that might be a better shot than the Dee Why stretch today.
Tide was low at 0715 and is coming into a 1.4 m high at 1335.
Outlook is for it to be small to flat until around Wednesday at which point most of the models show increasing but short-period east wind bump. By Thursday the models are showing the period getting into the 10 sec range and swell heading toward the 3+ metre zone which should be accompanied by brisk westerly wind. Interesting…
Have a top old Sunday everyone!

Lion Island basking in the sun

North Head

Tiny line trickles into No Mans

No takers at the point this morning


Weather Situation
A weak high pressure system is drifting across New South Wales today, and will be over the Tasman Sea by evening. This movement will see a gradual return to northerly winds over most New South Wales waters, before the next cold front and gusty westerly change on Tuesday. Vigorous winds are likely to linger into the middle part of the week, with a deep low pressure system moving over the Tasman Sea and a new high approaching from the west.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower offshore.
Monday 17 July
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers offshore.
Tuesday 18 July
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning westerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 30% chance of a shower.


 

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