The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on October 5th, 2017

Surf forecast issued Thursday 5 October 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The good news is the water has finally started to warm up…It’s bearable in boardshorts, as opposed to freezing.

And swirling along with the East Coast Current there are now some more whales to be seen in closer. Saw a cute little calf cavorting with its mother today, flopping and splashing all over the place.  He/she started heading north again until mum brought it back into line: ‘Hey Dopey. ..have you got water in your ears?? We go south now. Stick with me or else!’  Whale mothers have to be cruel to be kind….

Because there are bound to be other critters around too… like the seal that surfed down the face of the wave toward me today .. Very cutesy, but these are all wild animals. They can bite, so when it was getting a little too friendly I let it have the waves all to itself.  NPWS advice:

http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/news/npws-says-give-seals-space-to-recover-and-rest

So, there were small waves at the right tide today, when the wind went to the NE, and it was sunny with warm air.  But all that’s about to change for tomorrow

Friday: about 1 metre or so East/North East ahead of a Southerly change which will just make it a windblown mess. It’ll start to come up more overnight

Saturday: pretty dead South swell so let’s call it 1-2, 2+ metres …at places that like dead South swell, hmm maybe some will get into protected corners

Sunday: looks more interesting for the punters, probably in the 1-2 metre range South East , with a light Northerly

Monday: ditto but with bigger sets

Tuesday: low end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: ditto but dead South

Thursday: about 1 metre or so dead South

Steer clear of all marine creatures that have teeth, or might squash you.

No matter how cute you might think they are…they don’t like to be hugged. And they think they own the place. Tsss..

Lion Island Challenge is on this Saturday.  Details here

Lion Island Challenge

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct  5 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct  5 06:30:00 2017

Winds>>>>>>>>>>>>>

https://www.windy.com/?-33.883,151.167,5

Down in the Sea

MHL still having problems getting the water temp off the buoy, but as if to confirm my own reading by sacrificing my body to the elements for you, the satellite via the BOM shows that the warmer water is now here.  Lots of whales out offshore apparently, probably where the red stuff is… No wonder Junior wanted to go back north.  He was probably wondering where all his mates are. (they’re way out the back toward NZ)

imagetemp

Tides ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Friday 6 October

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly in the late morning then tending southerly 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

 

Saturday 7 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 8 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 9 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 30
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then tending west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 10 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 21
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 11 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Thursday 12 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

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