Archive for November 2017

You gotta be keen this morning

Posted on November 14th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

As expected the surf is, well, not very surfy this morning. There were a few hopefuls bobbing around along the beach near Kiddies and one or two up toward No Mans. As of 0700 the wind was lightly offshore and the MHL buoy’s 0400 observation showed a metre of 9-sec SE bump out at sea. Tide was a 1.48 m high at 0615 and is now dropping back to the 0.54 m low at 1220. Beach watch reports all of the northern beaches are clean and water temp is 21.

This morning’s models continue to project small to near flat conditions for the next couple of days and then a slight but gradual build toward the late weekend when there could be an influx of shortish period east wind swell. Unfortunately it looks as though the wind will be east as well. Here’s hoping that the early morning sessions will offer some options.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Nothing at the point, minor prospects along the beach at 0700

No Mans not much

Sunbeam on the bush near Cromer Heights

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast. This ridge will weaken briefly at the end of the week, before strengthening again on the weekend, maintaining generally east to northeasterly winds throughout the period.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 15 November

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 16 November

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 0.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Bumpy and tiny Monday morning

Posted on November 13th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

You’d need to have been really keen this morning at Dee Why. Wind was 6-7 kts from the ESE before 0700. It should stay at about that intensity all day. Swell at sea was around the 1.2 metre mark and coming from the east by ESE at 9 seconds. From what I could see, waves were in the knee to maybe waist high range along the beach. Tide was a 1.4 m high at 0525 and is now dropping to a 0.6 m low at 1120. It should get to around 23 today and beachwatch is calling the water 21.

Prospects for the rest of the week remain ordinary at best according to the models. If they have it right, we’re looking at a gradual cogging down to flatness by midweek. The more hopeful predictions are showing a slight uptick around Saturday and a gradual build toward chest to shoulder high early next week. Could be better, but then again, it is the season of mainly small and junky surf.

Have a great Monday everyone!

Nothing going on at the point and quiet along the beach at 0640

No Mans showing only tiny shutdowns for the early

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea with a ridge to the north is very slowly moving east directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 14 November

Winds
East to southeasterly below 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 15 November

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Scrappy little waves on Sunday morning

Posted on November 12th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The ocean was already getting choppy before 0800.  5-7 kts of easterly was messing up the low tide affected 1.5 m of 12-sec SSE swell and there were only a few takers in the water at Dee Why. The Bureau says we can expect the wind to continue from the eastern quarters but not to get much stronger than it is now. Beachwatch says the water should be clean everywhere and they’re reporting water temp of 21. Looks like we’re getting to that point in the year where most people in the water are out of their steamers for the duration.

The week ahead looks pretty dire until around Friday, so if you want something resembling a wave, it might be an idea to brave the dribbly onshores.

However it plays out, have a great Sunday!

Not much in the way of peaks along the No Mans stretch this morning

Just catchable at the point 0745

 

Easterly bumping up the little swell

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea with a ridge to the north is very slowly moving east directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Southeast to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 13 November

Winds
Southeast to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 14 November

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Waves to be had on Saturday morning

Posted on November 11th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
What a beautiful Saturday morning. Heaps of people in the water from early chasing low tide crunchers from North Narrabeen to Long Reef and Dee Why (and everywhere else no doubt). Banks don’t look great, but there are head high sets at exposed spots, so if you’re in the spot…
The Bureau says the juicy sets we’re seeing early will likely fade away later, so definitely a plan to get in now. Plus, the wind is lightly offshore for the early session. Tide bounces off the low at 0855 and then is back to a 1.6 m high at 1515. By then we can expect the onshore to have developed from the SE.
Looking ahead, the models are presenting a uniformly bleak picture. After this swell fizzles away it’s shaping to be a great week for your non-surfing life. If the super computers have it right we could be looking at zippo until next weekend (when at least one of the long range products says there’s some hope of E-NE wind swell bumps…
As always, we shall see.
Have a great Saturday and get one for me!

hopefuls at White rock

North Narrabeen 0640

South Narra shorey

Looking treacherously crunchy at south Narrabeen 0635

Set at No Mans

Near the Pole at 0645

Catching a few at carparks this morning

Kiddies and the point getting ridden

The point

The Pole

Weather Situation
A high pressure system east of Tasmania extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. This pattern will change very little over the next few days as the high gradually drifts across the southern Tasman Sea, maintaining southeast to northeasterly winds over most waters.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 12 November
Winds
Southeast to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 13 November
Winds
Easterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Waves for Friday morning

Posted on November 10th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light wind for the early and 1.6 m of 11 second SE swell under sunny skies made for fun looking knee to waist plus waves along the beach and at the point. Tide was low at 0745 and is running into a 1.7 m high at 1410. It should stay sunny all day and get to a mild 23. Winds should stay light but they’ll be coming around to the SE.
Interestingly after not look all that hopeful yesterday, this morning’s call from the Bureau is for the swell to come up from the SE and they’re expecting some long period component that could result in unexpected sets. Interesting.
And for the look ahead, well, the Goat dropped his predictions for the coming week last night.
Have a great Friday everybody!

Shutdowns and peaks at No Mans 0735

Waist to waist and a bit at the point 0735

Nice looking section

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. This pattern will change very little over the next few days as the high gradually drifts across the southern Tasman Sea, maintaining southeast to northeasterly winds over most waters.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Surf conditions in the afternoon and evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 11 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Sunday 12 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf forecast issued Thursday 9 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Waves of some sort all week. Light winds too but mostly light onshore for several days courtesy of a couple of big Highs slowly meandering across the bottom of the continent. If you don’t mind light onshores the surf could be sort of ok at places open to South swell where there are still some banks left after all that large messiness, which has only started to ease back today.

Over the next couple of days there will still be swell arriving from way down South. Smaller waves have started to settle down on their journey up the coast and joined themselves  together to form swells, so you can expect some long periods between sets, even though it’ll be mostly in the 1-2 metre range.  The BoM has a couple of warnings in the weather below

Friday 10/11: in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with sets, eased back from today early on but then expect some larger sets later

Saturday 11/11: up in the 1-2 metre range, with sets, dead South

Sunday 12/11: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range dead South, but likely there’ll still be sets

Monday 13/11: lower end of the 1-2 metre range but with sets, South East

Tuesday 14/11: low end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday 15/11: down more to around 1 metre or so East/ North East

Thursday 16/11: 1 metre or so East/ North East.

And a couple of notices if I may.. I have your attention anyway …

On Sunday 12 November, Avalon Beach SLSC will be holding a Fun Gala Day to raise awareness of mental health issues and raise funds for Lifeline.  It’ll take place from 9am to around 11am, involving all ages of club members from Nippers through to Masters as teams in water and beach events (replacing regular Nippers events).  The Club will set up water event areas taking account of all beachgoers, boardriders and ensure a safe flag area for swimmers. If you’re planning to visit Avalon on Sunday please be aware and understand these areas will be subject to surf conditions on the day, sandbank locations, and the rocks in the middle of the beach. Everyone is welcome to watch and to make a donation to Lifeline in collection tins which will be at the surf club and at the Max surf lookout in the middle of the beach.

Also on Sunday Ken Davo Davidson, one of the surf club’s original toothpick board riders will be turning 90.  Everyone is welcome to wish Ken happy birthday with a coldie at the club from 5pm when the bar will be open to everyone, members and visitors, whether you know him or not!

And Don’t Forget Remembrance Day on the 11th of the 11th (Saturday)

Have fun!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  9 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  9 05:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.817,151.201,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 10 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Early fog patches in the west. Light winds.

Surf conditions in the late afternoon and evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 11 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 12 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog in the west. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 13 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 14 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Morning shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday 15 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 16 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day


Fun looking late morning

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

1130 and some fun shoulder high stuff coming through for a small crew at the point. Wish I could be in the water with them…


Waves for the morning crew

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Sunny skies and a forecast for light and variable winds combined with a low tide at 0650 helped the 2 metre 9 second swell to look interesting enough to attract a solid crowd to the point. Set wave faces were head and a bit on the bigger ones. The swell had a raw look to it and the main action was clearly at the point rather than along the beach. Tide will peak at 1.78 m at 1305.
Swell’s predicted to fade steadily across the day and this morning’s swell modelling by the Bureau and others suggests that the coming week will be pretty small. The Goat should be along with his forecast later, so as always I’ll be keen to see what he says after applying his decades of experience to the outlook.
Get out there this morning if you can is my advice and, however it plays out, hope you have a top old day!

Solid crew on it at 0650

A few hopefuls up toward No Mans

Bomb set catches the crowd out

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, generating predominantly southeasterly winds. Winds will tend more easterly on Friday and the weekend as the high drifts across the southern Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 10 November

Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 11 November

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Messy morning at Dee Why

Posted on November 8th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
15-20 kts of SSE wind ripping into Dee Why from before 0800 was making for messy and unappetizing conditions. At 0500 the MHL buoy was seeing 2.3 metres of 9 second energy from the SSE. Tide was low at 0540 and is currently running into a deepish 1.87 m high at 1210. Skies were partly cloudy at report writing time and we were heading to a high of 20.
The Bureau says it’ll continue SE all day and the swell is expected to fade back to around 2 metres by dark. Tomorrow the waves are set to be smaller again but there could be a little fun wave at south magnets for the early session before the wind gets going.
The pattern of small but surfable in the morning looks to continue on Friday and then on Saturday most of the models show the swell at around the metre mark, but the average period getting into the 15 second range. If that’s the case there could be some interesting activity at the point… we’ll await developments with interest.
Have a happy old Wednesday everyone!

Not exciting up the beach at 0750

Only the most hopeful hunting for bumps at the point

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales, while a low pressure system near New Zealand continues to move southeast. The combination of these two systems is generating south to southeasterly winds across New South Wales waters. The high is expected to be the dominant weather system for the region over the next several days as it moves slowly east, with winds forecast to tend easterly along the southern coast by the end of the week.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers this morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 9 November

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 10 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Waves for Dee Why this morning

Posted on November 7th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Sunny skies, light WSW wind at 0730 and a mix of NNE and SSE swell combining to be 3.4 m at 12 sec out at sea. A solid crew in the water at the point to make the most of the opportunities, but not too many in the water otherwise. Sets are into the solidly overhead range as the tide comes off the low and fills into a deep 1.9 m high at 1115. You want to get in early because the wind is expected to go southerly later this morning.

The forecast has the wind staying southerly overnight and into tomorrow morning while the swell still pushes along at about the current size from the south. The longer term outlook is for the waves to stay above the micro threshold over the remainder of the week, but… the wind forecast doesn’t look too friendly. Basically the models are all showing a run of mainly south to SE into the weekend – at least. So, hit it early for the widest range of options…

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Lines stacking into Dee Why this morning at 0730

Up the beach situation

Weather Situation

A low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is moving rapidly southeast towards New Zealand, with strong to gale force southwest to southeasterly winds across coastal waters easing through Tuesday as the low moves further away. In its place, a high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales. This is expected to become the dominant weather system for the region over the next few days as it moves slowly east, with winds forecast to ease further and tend easterly along the southern coast by the end of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, turning southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 8 November

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 9 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

 

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