Archive for November 2017

Marginal to micro Wednesday morning

Posted on November 22nd, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Almost no wind as Wednesday got started, but it should gradually come up from the east as the morning goes along. Dee Why was very small and weak looking at 0620 when I checked it for the first time. Waves look to be maybe knee high on sets. Waves are coming from the east and the MHL buoy was showing 1.2 m at 9 seconds as of 0400. There’s an obvious downward trend in the data and that’s consistent with the Bureau’s marine forecast (see below). Tide is heading to a 1.68 m high at 1115 and we should see a high of 24 this afternoon.

The tiny conditions look like continuing – and even declining – through to late in the weekend when some of the models are pointing to a slight improvement to our prospects for a little wave at east magnets. If it gets into the waist high range by Sunday morning, I reckon we’ll be doing well.

Have a great Wednesday and go well with your plans!

Showers out at sea south east of Dee Why

Very small and barely catchable at 0620

Only a hint of activity at No Mans

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is moving east very slowly, whilst maintaining a ridge to the north/northwest and is directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Thursday 23 November

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the morning and afternoon.

Friday 24 November

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Northy late morning

Posted on November 21st, 2017 in North Narrabeen, Surf Reports.

Out for a bike ride so dropped by Northy for a look. It’s setty and pretty soft and slow looking but faces on the bombs are head high (occasionally). Surface as of 1030 still smooth and crowd was under the 20 mark.


Little bumps for the keen

Posted on November 21st, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Similar to yesterday morning, but maybe a tiny bit cleaner and with a slightly more distinct line. There were a few people winkling out knee to maybe waist high rides at the point, but I couldn’t see anyone along the beach north from there. The MHL buoy was showing 1.8 m of 14-sec east, and  cams at Manly and Curly showed waist to maybe shoulder plus faces.  Not great quality it has to be said, but there’s definitely longer period component showing and that means it’ll be setty.

The Bureau’s modelling shows the current pulse lasting through to maybe the early session tomorrow. Thereafter it would seem that things are likely to be pretty quiet until maybe late in the weekend or early next week when the east windswell could bump up a little from ankle to knee-ish to knee to waist-ish or even a bit bigger. Unfortunately it also looks as though the increase will be as a consequence of stronger NE wind. I wonder if that means we’ll get another water temp drop…

Have a top old Tuesday one and all!

 

Cloudy dawn

Nup for No Mans

Knee to waist high at the point as of 0600

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is very slowly moving east maintaining a ridge to the north/northwest and is directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.

Wednesday 22 November

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Thursday 23 November

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Marginal at best for Monday morning

Posted on November 20th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

High overcast and a light SE breeze making for a less than attractive picture. There’s about a metre of 8-sec SE wind bump out at sea and it’d be struggling to be that big on wave faces at Dee Why beach. As the picture shows there were a couple of bods chasing slop at the point just before 0700, but I didn’t see them actually catch anything. As with the last few days, it’s a case of being extremely keen or giving it a miss. Plus there is the little matter of the frigid water temps.

While the height of the swell looks like staying in the metre or even sub-metre range for the rest of the week, there is a faint hope that we could see the occasional waist plus set later today through tomorrow morning if the average period jumps into the 12-13 sec range per the models. The wind promises to be 10-15 kts from the east through Wednesday, so quality prospects are not great.

Not the greatest news on the surf front, but have yourself a great Monday anyway and keep on smilin’!

A couple of optimists hunting at the point

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, and is directing southeast to northeasterly winds over coastal waters. Very little change to this pattern is expected during the next few days, with winds gradually shifting more northerly towards the end of the week as the high moves away.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 21 November

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.

Wednesday 22 November

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.

Still really small and junky but not totally flat

Posted on November 19th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light east wind ruffling the surface from the get-go at Dee Why this morning. There were a few keen types looking for ankle to knee high bumps at Kiddies (it’s too small and gutless for the point).  Outlook is for the easterly to bumble along in the 10-15 kt range all day. The MHL buoy was detecting 1.2 metres of 7-sec east wind swell as the day kicked off. Tide is coming into the 1.7 m high at 0930 and will be low at 1600. Should get up to 24, although the Goat tells me the water was damn chilly for this time of year at Avalon where he was on patrol. He reckons closer to 16 than not!

Not too impressed with the forecast models this morning I have to say. A broad fetch north of NZ looks like sending a pulse toward the NSW north coast, but if the Bureau’s projections are correct, it won’t be felt much south of about Coffs. That said, some of the models are still showing longish 12-13 sec period east stuff getting down out way from late tomorrow into Tuesday morning – when we’ll have E to SE wind at 10-15 kts. Hope the Bureau’s low-balling it…

Have a top old Sunday everyone and if you’re near a wireless (or have the ABC app on your phone) at 1015 or so this morning, I’ll be on Simon Marnie’s 702 ABC Weekend Show learning a thing or two from shark expert Rob Harcourt.

Folks scratching about for little waves at 0645

Up the beach, a searcher searches

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, and is directing southeast to northeasterly winds over coastal waters. Very little change to this pattern is expected during the next few days.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.

Monday 20 November

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Tuesday 21 November

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.

Waist and a bit at NE magnets early

Posted on November 18th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The Bureau’s forecast (see below) notes ‘Very little change to this pattern is expected over the next few days.’ So, what we’ve got is pretty much what we’ve had for the last week – namely not much. As the pictures show, most places are just barely surfable. The NE wind bump is about a metre out at sea and because it’s only 6-8 seconds apart, it’s gutless and struggling to make the waist high mark even at magnets like Northy.

The wind was 10-15 kts NE from early and it will build to 15-20 kts before long. Tide’s heading into a 1.7 m high at 0900, so on top of everything else, it’s fat and full too. And just to round out the picture, the Bureau says we can pretty much count on seeing a shower or two across the day.

Outlook for the week ahead is not looking all that interesting on the models – for the most part. They’re generally calling for a steady supply of small mainly east wind swell along with onshore wind. Several of the models are showing 12-13 sec east swell Mon-Tue, but after that the consensus is flat to near flat for the back half of the week. Here’s hoping they’re under calling it.

Have yourself a top old Saturday everyone!

Hopeful at the Pole 0625

Waiting for the coffee machine to warm up

Nothing surfable at the point

Showers out at sea 0620

Surfboat in search of surf

Sole wanderer communes with nature at south Narra

Small waves at Northy 0615

Fat set scuds into Northy at 0615

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales northern coast, and is directing east to northeasterly winds across coastal waters. Very little change to this pattern is expected over the next few days.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers inshore this morning, 60% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Sunday 19 November

Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Monday 20 November

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.

Still small and messy for Friday

Posted on November 17th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The Bureau says we’re almost certain to have showers today, but as of 0700 skies were partly cloudy with no obvious sign of precipitation. Wind was a steady 10-12 kts from the NNE when I climbed aloft to grab this morning’s snaps. Out at sea a few hours earlier, the MHL buoy was detecting 1.2 m of 7 sec ENE wind bump. Tide hits a 1.68 m high at 0820 and will be back to low at 1445.  By then the NE wind should be hammering in at 20-25 kts – which ought to push up the waves a bit.

Outlook for the coming week you ask? Ah, well, I can refer you to the ever perspicacious Goat for a clear eyed reckoning of our prospects.

Have a top old Friday and keep on smilin’!

Sideshore and very small at 0640

Nothing to see, move along

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system near New Zealand with a ridge to the New South Wales northern coast is directing northeasterly winds across coastal waters. Very little change to this pattern is expected over the next few days.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Saturday 18 November

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early morning.

Sunday 19 November

Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 16th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 16 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

We’ve had some fab sunny days, but with onshores and small waves. There are some days of cloudy sky, much needed showers ahead and Noreasters are expected by the Bureau till Sunday, when the wind will turn more Easterly again, with onshores right through till Thursday.

The good news for those who don’t mind onshore wind spraying the sea into your eyes, ears and mouth or just keeping your body temperature down below comfortable levels when you’re wet, is that the surf should pick up a little with the wind. That’s “up a little” speaking relatively, if you start from “tiny” today.  For everyone else not at work or school who find onshores just plain annoying, it looks looks like jobs time again, or walkies, or bikies etc.

Surf outlook:

Friday: slight uptick from today as the Noreaster keeps pushing along, say 1- 1+ metres East North East

Saturday: up more in the 1-2 metre range East North East, somewhat bigger and windier at southern ends of beaches

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East, with East winds

Monday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East

Tuesday: ostensibly (big word !) about the same, but with longer period sets that may be bigger

Wednesday: down again, around 1-1+ metres

Thursday: coming up a little in the 1-2 metre range East/South

Enjoy whatever you’re doing!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 16 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 16 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19 at the moment, having crept down a little today after several days of Noreasters.

 

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Possible shower.
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west. Winds northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 17 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 18 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h tending easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 19 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 20 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 21 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 22 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 23 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Another tiny but pretty morning at Dee Why

Posted on November 16th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The Bureau says it will cloud over as the day goes along and that there’s a chance of a shower later on, but as Thursday fired up, it was sunny with a light NNE breeze. As the pictures show the wave activity was minimal at Dee Why and up to No Mans. I’m calling it ankle to knee. It’s therefore no surprise to see the 0500 data from the MHL Sydney buoy showing 1 metre of  6-second wind bump coming from the NE.

Wind should be out of the NE all day and by this afternoon it’ll be 15-20 kts. That should push up the little bumps a bit but of course it’ll be strongly onshore and cloudy too. Tide was high at 0745 and will be back to low at 1400.

The Goat should be along later today with his thoughts on the week ahead and as always I’ll be keen to see how his wisdom compares to the consensus of the models. From the look of the Bureau’s interpretation of the data, we’re not likely to see any improvement to size until early next week – and then it looks like being longish period east with heaps of east wind.

Have a top old Thursday one and all!

Barely there waves

Close to flat up the beach

Enjoying brekkie.
The red wattlebird is a passerine bird native to southern Australia. At 33–37 cm in length, it is the second largest species of Australian honeyeater. Wikipedia
Scientific name: Anthochaera carunculata

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system near New Zealand with a ridge to the northwest is directing northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 0.5 metres.
Weather
Becoming cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Friday 17 November

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers inshore, 70% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Saturday 18 November

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots turning easterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Beautiful day but only tiny

Posted on November 15th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another glorious day coming up for Sydney but it looks like only ankle to knee high for surfers. Wind was light WSW at 0700 but it’s expected to come around to the NE and be a bog standard summery 15-20 kts by this afternoon. At 0500 the MHL buoy off Sydney was seeing 0.8 m of 9-sec swell coming from the east (102 degrees). Tide hit a 1.56 m high at 0700 and is now headed to the low at 1315.

As the wind picks up this afternoon there should be some onshore burgers into the waist high range at magnets. I don’t think it’s likely to last overnight and that tomorrow will likely start out small and weak  before the NE cycle kicks in again. And it looks like that pattern will likely hold through the weekend. But Monday might be rather interesting. If the more hopeful models have it right, we could see a solid pulse from the east. Unfortunately the models also show steady onshore flow too. It’ll be interesting to see what the Goat thinks tomorrow evening.

Have a great Wednesday one and all and keep on smilin’!

Dee Why point not being a surf spot this morning

Maybe knee high at No Mans

Jacaranda season under way on the Northern Beaches

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast. This ridge will weaken briefly at the end of the week, before strengthening again on the weekend, maintaining generally east to northeasterly winds throughout the period.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower this morning.

Thursday 16 November

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening.

Friday 17 November

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

 

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