Posted in: Dee Why.Tags: 3/10, NE-2m-7s.
Case of morning sickness at the point and along the beach at Dee Why this morning. Wind was north about 4-8 kts when I took the picture but the forecast tells us it’ll be 15-20 kts from the N-NE soon enough. At 0400 the MHL buoy recorded the swell coming from the NE. It was 2 metres but the average period was only 7 seconds.
Tide will be high at 1050, so conditions aren’t likely to improve much before the wind ratchets up. Looks like the best prospects will be in the north corners.
The strong NE’r is set to go overnight and then to switch southerly early in the morning. At the same time, the swell is expected to pulse up from the NE. If the models have it right, the average period will jump too, so protected south corners could be the plan.
On Saturday the Bureau says the wind’ll be SE 15-25 kts and that we’ll have a combo of easterly and southerly swell energy under cloudy, showery skies. The Bureau says surf conditions will be ‘deceptively powerful’ too. According to the modellers, average periods could be in the 14-15 sec range.
It’ll be interesting to see the Goat’s take on the coming week because it looks to me like early in the period will be better than later…
Good luck if you’re able to go wave hunting today and have yourself a top old time!
Lumpy bumps coming in every now and again
Posted in: Dee Why.Tags: 4/10, 68d-1.8m-7s, NE-2m-7s.
As expected, the wind came around to the S-SSE by 0730 this morning. The ocean was bumpy and lumpy with close to two metres of wind swell coming from the NE at 7 seconds apart, tide was low at 0725 and is now heading to a high at 1235. It should cloud up soon and there’s a 70% chance of rain later.
Surf quality is not too good at Dee Why, but if you don’t mind a building SE wind and some heaving lumpy conditions, there are definitely a few chest plus sets showing up along the beach at Dee Why. No one was out at the point, but it looked as though there might possibly be something of interest every now and then. NE exposed spots could be fun for a few hours before the SE finally knocks it about too much. Plus, the Bureau expects the swell to decrease from the easterly quarters as the seas start mounting up from the SE.
Tomorrow looks like being cloudy, cool and onshore with a SE to S wind swell building to a peak around the two metre mark.
Thursday should see cloudy skies, the odd drop of rain and the wind starting SE – but swinging NE later. Swell unfortunately is expected to start backing off again in the morning,
I’m not seeing much of interest in the long range swell modelling this morning. Basically it looks like bumbling along in this windswelly way for as far ahead as the predictions go. The Bureau’s predictions for T.C. Edna are only mildly interesting, The track is shown arcing around to the west of New Caledonia and curving back toward the east coast. But it’s projected to fade to a depression by that stage, so I can’t see us getting anything from it.
Have yourself a great Tuesday everyone, and stay happy!
No takers as of 0730
Lumpy and messy but rideable if you picked ’em
No sign of a reasonable bank
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Tuesday 4 February 2014.
A high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge into northeastern New South Wales, while a trough and associated cold front move into southern New South Wales. This trough will bring a gusty southerly change as it moves northwards during Tuesday, with another high pushing a ridge along the coast in its wake. Winds will gradually shift more northerly once again during the second half of the week, as the next high becomes established over the Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coastal Waters
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning then increasing to 20 to 30 knots mid to late morning.
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Wednesday 5 February
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots early in the morning.
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending southerly 2 metres , then tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
Thursday 6 February
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly during the day.
Around 1 metre.
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters
This forecast is also available via scheduled broadcasts on marine radio.
Latest Coastal Observations
Posted in: Dee Why.Tags: 1/10, 59d-1.8m-7.3s, NE-2m-7s.
If you were in early at NE spots, you might have found the odd knee to waist lumpy bump. Dee Why at 0600 wasn’t one of those places however. Only one or two bods having a poke around in the sloppy and weak conditions. Beautiful morning though for what promises to be a hot day (high of 35).
According to the MHL data, the main energy’s coming broadly from the NE with an average height at sea just shy of the two metre mark. Period though is a wind-swelly 7 seconds.
Tide’s high at 0945 and low at 1620.
Outlook? Well, as usual, I’m with the Goat on that front (see down page!)
Have a good one and don’t be in such a hurry, chill!
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Friday 20 December 2013.
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is forced slowly northwards today as a cold front moves across the southern Tasman Sea. Following the front an elongated band of high pressure south of Australia will extend a ridge across the NSW coast associated with a fresh to strong southerly change. The change enters the South Coast Friday afternoon, reaching Sydney early Saturday morning, then weakening and stalling near the Mid North Coast Saturday afternoon. By Sunday a high pressure system redevelops over the Tasman Sea resulting in winds turning back to the east to northeast.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
1 to 2 metres.
East to southeasterly around 1 metre.
The chance of thunderstorms inshore during this afternoon and evening with little or no rainfall.
Saturday 21 December
Northerly 15 to 20 knots ahead of a southerly change before dawn. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning.
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning.
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1.5 metres before dawn, then tending east to northeasterly around 1 metre during the morning.
Sunday 22 December
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
South to southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Posted in: Dee Why.Tags: NE-2m-7s.
A grey and dull start to Wednesday with only tiny NE wind swell lapping lightly along the shore at Dee Why. The MHL buoy is showing almost two metres at sea, but the 7 second average period tells the story. Wind was just faintly from the south at 0800, so surface conditions were still pretty smooth. There could well be a little mal-able option at places such as Manly, Curly or North Narra. But I’d set the expectometer pretty low.
Not much of a tidal swing today between the low at 0730 and the high at 1350. Should be cloudy and maybe even punctuated by the odd shower or thunderstorm.
This morning’s swell prediction models aren’t indicating much of anything for the near future. Maybe we’ll have a little south pulse Sat-Sun (let’s hope it’s not in the dark hours!), but overall it looks like another week for alternate activities.
Keep on smilin’ and go well!
A high pressure system near New Zealand is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. This high is expected to remain slow-moving through much of the week, as a broad trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough and an associated cold front are forecast to reach the coast towards the end of the week, with a weak southerly change extending up to central parts of the coast on Thursday before dissipating. Following this a second trough with a fresh to strong and cooler southerly change extends throughout the coast from Friday and into Saturday. In the wake of this second change a high pressure ridge is expected to build over New South Wales on Sunday and into the new week.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Up to 2 metres.
Northeasterly about 2 metres tending easterly 1 metre late this evening.
The chance of thunderstorms, becoming more likely during the afternoon.
Thursday 8 November
Northerly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the morning.
1.5 to 2 metres increasing up to 3 metres during the morning then decreasing below 2 metres around midday.
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres tending northeasterly 2 metres from the morning.
The chance of thunderstorms, more likely during the afternoon.
Friday 9 November
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Northeasterly about 2 metres.
Posted in: Dee Why.Tags: NE-2m-7s.
Wind was out of the north at around 10-15 kts and the tide was dropping to a low around 1140, when I checked the situation for the first time today. It was around 0800 and at that stage the MHL buoy was showing a couple metres of NE wind swell with a period of 7 seconds. As my picture shows, there were sets into the chest high range along Dee Why beach. But the water looks pretty ordinary following days of heavy rain. We’ll need at least a day or two of sunshine to knock off the pathogens in the upper layers of the water column.
The NE’r will work its way up into the 20-30 kt range this afternoon and that should mean the potential for some activity in the north corners.
This morning’s swell models are showing the NE wind swell sticking around through tomorrow and then we go back into southerly conditions once again for a few days before the energy moves more to the SE toward the end of the week – and possibly ramps up into the overhead range around Thursday.
The Bureau says we can expect have late rain after a day of partly cloudy conditions.
Have yourself a great Sunday!
A low pressure trough over inland NSW is moving northeast as a high pressure system strengthens in the Bight. A high pressure system in the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast. A southerly change is expected to the far south coast later today as the trough moves northeast. This change will extend gradually to the far north coast by early Tuesday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, increasing to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the day.
2 to 3 metres.
Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Monday 5 March
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, ahead of a southerly change of 20 to 25 knots during the morning. Winds tending south to southeasterly during the afternoon.
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around dawn.
Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Tuesday 6 March
Southerly about 20 knots.
1.5 to 2 metres.
Northeasterly 1.5 metres tending southeasterly about 1.5 metres from midday.
Posted in: Big Picture, Dee Why.Tags: NE-2m-7s.
What a lovely start for Saturday. Blasting N-NE wind and swirling showers with the obligatory slate grey skies. I’d have pulled the doona over my head too but for my morning cameo on 702 ABC’s weekend show. So what’s happening with Huey I hear you ask. Well, at around midnight, the Big Guy put the helm hard over to the NE. Out at sea – if you were crazy or unlucky enough to be there – the swell went up to 2 metres, but the seas were at the 4 metre mark. Average period is a touch over 6 seconds. Did I hear you say “but that’s just chop…”? And you’d be right. It’s very ordinary indeed and you missed nothing for the early.
Outlook is for the NE wind and choppy conditions to continue all day in the Sydney region. There might possibly be something in the semi-protected north corners (eg Curly, Northy, Whaley) late this afternoon.
The slightly better prospect could be tomorrow at spots that like a bit of ENE but at this stage it doesn’t look too amazing. In fact, Monday-Tuesday looks a bit more the goods as the swell swings back to the south and the average period moves away from the windswelly short periods of the weekend toward something jucier.
I’m hoping for shoulder to head high plus at south swell spots from about lunchtime onward Monday.
Go well with your day and may your plans all unfold satisfactorily!
From the Bureau of Meterology this morning
Warning Summary at issue time
Gale warning for New South Wales waters between Wooli and Gabo Island.
Details of warnings are available on the Bureau’s website www.bom.gov.au, by telephone 1300-659-218* or through some TV and radio broadcasts.
A deep low pressure system over South Australia will move southeast towards Tasmania with winds along the NSW coast becoming strong to gale force today The low will then move quickly into the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday allowing winds to gradually ease.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots, increasing to 30 to 35 knots, chiefly offshore. Seas: 3 to 4 metres. Swell: Southerly 1 to 2 metres. The chance of thunderstorms offshore early this evening.
Forecast for Sunday
Winds: Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then tending westerly up to 15 knots around midday. Winds tending southwesterly 10 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing below 2 metres around dawn. Swell: Easterly 2 metres tending northeasterly about 2 metres from the morning.
Forecast for Monday
Winds: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then becoming southwesterly 10 to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly 1.5 metres tending southerly 2 metres from the morning.
Posted in: Big Picture.Tags: NE-2m-7s.
NE’r blew all night and was going along at 15-20 kts as of 0700. With a very hot day ahead inland, the call is for the wind to get into the 20-30 kt range this afternoon.
All this air movement has pushed up a bit of windswell at the usual NE spots. I saw a chest high set at Northy, and something at least as big down toward Marquesas. Doesn’t look too consistent, nor terribly powerful (the period’s only 7 seconds), but there are waves to be had, particularly for those prepared to tune their choice of equipment to the conditions.
There were knee to waist high sets in the middle of the Dee Why to Longy stretch, but that probably wouldn’t be one of the first places you’d look for a wave.
With the wind set to go hard all day, I’d say there should be options around for the duration. A south change is due tomorrow, so this could be the best of it.
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning
Thursday until midnight: Wind: N/NE 20/30 knots, reaching 33 knots offshore.Sea: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: NE 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Chance afternoon/evening thunderstorms.
Friday: Wind: early S/SE change 20/30 knots, easing to 10/15 knots in the afternoon.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, abating to about 1.5 metres later. Swell: NE 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Chance thunderstorms.
Saturday: Wind: tending SE 10/20 knots.
Posted in: Big Picture, Dee Why.Tags: NE-2m-7s.
Around midday in the sideshore but fun little lumps.
Arvo update for ya… went down to Northy in the late morning with the intention of catching a few onshore junk burgers. Tide was still pretty high, and the wind was going along strongly. Interestingly, there were not that many people in the water (compared to the usual Northy population on a sunny morning) and better still, there seemed to be a few waves as well. Bit of a shock jumping in because the NE wind has pulled up some deeper cool water. Glad I’d opted for the springy. Anyway, didn’t stay out too long, but I’m glad I got in because there were a few really quite fun shoulder high waves added to my life count. As the tide dropped, it got more crowded and the waves seemed to be getting a little jucier.
and from this morning…
0715: Not much, but not flat either.
We’re looking at another day of NE wind across the Sydney region. It was already around 10 kts at 0700 and the call is for it to build to 20-30 kts this afternoon. Very summery indeed. Windswell is currently out of the NE (what a surprise) at about two metres out at sea. The all important power setting is a marginal 7 seconds though, so you’re not going to be seeing many waves with faces much above chest high.
At 0715 Dee Why was reasonably well populated considering the marginal conditions. Mostly in the waist high range, and pretty fat and soft looking, thanks to the approaching high tide. I reckon there’d be better prospects around the corner at Curly or up Northy way.
A SE change is due to show up tomorrow morning early, and as it comes through we should see the dominant swell direction swing around to align with the wind as the day goes along. It’ll be more short period stuff though. In fact, the models are showing that we’re in for another week of periods in the 6-8 second range along most of the NSW coast. Typical spring conditions.
Have yourself a top old day!
Posted in: Big Picture.Tags: NE-2m-7s.
(we were off the air for a couple hours due to a database badness… hoping we’ve fixed it now!)
Can’t really see any reason why there’d be waves, but when I grabbed this morning’s snap, it looked like there might be something. Wind is out of the NE and already up to 15kts on the gusts, so conditions are less than picturesque. The Bureau says the wind will push up into the 20-30 kt range this afternoon. And that should push up some windswell waves at semi-protected north corners. Sounds like a typical summer scenario, ie the most surfable conditions will be in places where it’s sideshore.
0715: a little one slides into the corner, somewhat the worse for wear.
The Sydney MHL buoy is currently showing 2 metres of 7 second NE windswell, so there are very likely some of those sideshore slop burgers to be had even now.
From the look of the models, we’re in for a week of these conditions not only in Sydney but along much of the eastern seaboard. There’s plenty of activity in the southern ocean, but it looks set to swing well clear of us for the next week.
After I post this, I’ll have a poke around the models to see if I can spot anything of interest elsewhere in the world for inclusion in the next edition of the editor’s picks. Looks as though Erie is getting about the biggest conditions of anywhere. And if you’re in New York today, you’ll have heaps of juicy swell.
Have yourself a good one!