Articles tagged with "S-2m-6s"

Sticky: The winds of August blow hard

Posted by: on August 20th, 2013

White horses out at sea

Smoothed off

Hello Friends,

The MHL buoy data is showing a couple metres of south wind swell, but the average period is just 6 seconds – and that means flatness for us. Wind was light inshore as the day got started, but offshore, the wide dark plain of the sea is speckled with white horses. The Bureau says the west to SW wind will push up to 25-30 kts before weakening a little as afternoon comes into view.

This morning’s swell forecast models are not delivering happy news. For the last few days it looked as though tomorrow and Thursday might offer us a prospect or two at south spots. But it now seems that we may only see a brief uptick, and it might not be all that fabulous. I’m still hoping of course and I plan to keep an eye on it all day – as usual!

The crowdfunding work continues again today… getting closer…

Tide was high at 0720 and will be low at 1310. It should be sunny all day with a high in Sydney around the 17 mark.

Have yourself a top Tuesday one and all.

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Tuesday 20 August 2013.
Weather Situation
A deep low pressure system south of Tasmania is slowly moving south-southeast and a series of cold fronts will cross the southwestern Tasman Sea directing vigorous west to southwesterly winds along New South Wales coast.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong wind warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coastal Waters
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the afternoon, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly up to 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Wednesday 21 August
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning westerly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Thursday 22 August
Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.

Sticky: Southerly blows up some little waves

Posted by: on March 29th, 2013

Finding a few

Hello Friends,

A hint of the colder months to come in the air this morning. Wind was out of the SW at 10-15 kts and there’s a couple metres of six sec period south wind swell. Being a holiday, the peaks at the Dee Why end of the beach where the wind’s more favourable are well attended. Size looks to be in the chest plus range on the bigger sets. Tide is high around 1025, so early risers are still having to deal with the fullness issue. It might possibly get a little better as the tide drops in the middle part of the day and the wind drops back a bit. The complicating factor is that the wind is set to go around to the south rather than the early SW’ly.

Outlook is for smallness across the next few days says the Goat.

Have yourself a good Friday!

Weather Situation
A gusty southerly change associated with a cold front crossing the southern Tasman Sea is moving along New South Wales north coast and weakening. Behind the change a weak high pressure ridge will develop over the western Tasman Sea on Saturday before another southerly change develops on the south coast Sunday afternoon and extending to the far far north coast Monday morning.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres tending southeasterly 2 metres this afternoon and evening.
Saturday 30 March
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly about 2 metres tending easterly about 1.5 metres from midday.
Sunday 31 March
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1 metre.

Southerly powering along but not the waves

Posted by: on November 13th, 2012


Hello Friends,

The south wind hit at around midnight and our surf prospects have been pretty much demolished. There were a few bods in the water at Dee Why waiting around for the very occasional waist high set. But the MHL data tells the tale: south, 2 metres @ 6 seconds. If you don’t mind stiff southerlies, there should be a little more size at the exposed spots – and you can be confident there won’t be a crowd!

The long range forecasts continue their glum outlook again this morning. It’s going to bump along at near flatness levels for another week at least. With any luck, we’ll still have the odd longboardable lump at beaches facing the primary swell direction. But today the wind pretty much forecloses that option for all but the onshore cognoscenti.

So off we all go, into the wonders (or otherwise) of Tuesday 13 November. Hope yours is a good one!

Tides: L @0705, H @1340

Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred off the New South Wales coast extends a weakening ridge over the state. A trough will and southerly change lies near central parts of the coast this morning and is expected to move northwards before stalling in the Mid North Coast this afternoon. Winds will then turn northeasterly again ahead of a more significant frontal system approaching from the west. The front is likely to bring a southerly change to the far south on Thursday afternoon with the change progressing along the New South Wales coast and reaching the far north on Friday morning. Following this a high pressure ridge will begin to develop over southeastern Australia on Saturday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the morning, before easing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1 metre.
Wednesday 14 November
Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots tending easterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning then tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.
Thursday 15 November
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots ahead of a southerly change 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms during the evening.

Sticky: This is summer?

Posted by: on December 2nd, 2011

Hello Friends,

Spitting grey skies and 15-20 kts of southerly – doesn’t seem very summery to me. There’s a 6 second period south wind swell of about two metres at sea. It’s maybe chest high on the very biggest ones at exposed spots, but the wind is really working it over,  so there was almost nobody in the water at Dee Why. I couldn’t spot any takers on the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch. It was micro on the north side of Long Reef, but if you were really desperate, there might be a little ankle snapper at south Narrabeen.

The southerly looks like lasting pretty much through into the new week.

Hang in there everybody. Huey will return one day so keep on smilin’!

Tides: L @ 0720 H @1330

Weather Situation

A strengthening high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast in the wake of a trough. The high is expected to be slow moving during next few days, maintaining generally south to southeasterly winds along the coast. Winds are forecast to ease during Saturday before increasing again on Sunday as a cold front passes to the south.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots. Inshore sea breezes.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Saturday 3 December

Winds
Southeasterly 5 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Sunday 4 December

Winds

South to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then increasing to up to 30 knots during the afternoon.

Seas

Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the evening.

Swell

Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Sticky: Windblown messiness

Posted by: on March 31st, 2011

Hello Friends,

The primary swell direction swung abruptly just before daybreak and as I write this, it’s now out of the south at a couple metres. But don’t get too excited, the period is just 6 seconds and you may have noticed that we have a bit of wind as well. It’s out of the SSE at 20-25kts as the day starts, but the forecast is for it to back off during the day to around 15-20kts.  Putting those two things together, it looks to me as though we’re pretty much out of luck for surfing today. Maybe tomorrow, if the Bureau is right about the swell, we’ll get a small south pulse during the day that may possibly give us a little something in the northern corners for the afternoon.

Have yourself a terrific Thursday!

TIDES: H @0710, L @1330

Weather Situation

A southerly change will extend to the far north coast by late Thursday. A cold front will move across the southern Tasman Sea on Friday freshening southerly winds on the south and central coasts Saturday. Behind the front a strong high pressure system will move south of he Bight and then it is expected to become semi-stationary by Saturday slowly extending a ridge to the far north coast.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds: Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning then tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: 2 to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly 1 metre tending southerly about 2 metres this afternoon and evening. The chance of thunderstorms offshore this morning.

Forecast for Friday

Winds: South to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming light during the afternoon then tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots by early evening. Winds tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre during the evening.

Forecast for Saturday

Winds: North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending southwesterly up to 30 knots during the morning then tending southerly 15 to 25 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 2 metres during the morning then increasing to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Southerly 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms until late afternoon.

Sticky: Little grey morning (what’s new)

Posted by: on January 28th, 2011

Hello Friends,

SSE wind of 15-20 kts, cloudy grey skies and a scrappy little south windswell struggling in to be greeted here and there by those flying the flag of stoke. And good on ’em says I. The waves at Dee Why are weak and not much above the thigh high mark as the tide comes in this morning. The Bureau says the southerly will moderate a little this afternoon and drop back overnight.

The latest run of the models seems to be lining up with the Goat’s call, ie Sunday morning looks the best shot for a wave. The long range outlook has gone pretty ordinary for us in the Sydney region. Another week of marginal at best conditions from the shape of the forecasts. Just maybe toward the end of next week things will turn around a little for us.

Have yourself a great Friday and go well with your plans and hopes!


TIDES: L @1100 H @1650

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure over the Mid-North coast of New South Wales is expected to move through the remainder of the north coast today. A high west of Bass Strait is expected to move east with a ridge pushing north along the coast. The high should become established over the southern Tasman Sea over the weekend with a ridge to the north coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds: Southerly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon then tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: 2 to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre tending southerly 1.5 metres during the evening.

Forecast for Saturday
Winds: East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around midday. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres tending easterly 1 metre during the evening.

Forecast for Sunday
Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 metres during the evening. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Sticky: Cloudy early, should clear later

Posted by: on November 13th, 2009
Still no sign of swell...

Still no sign of swell...

Hello Friends,

A chance of early showers this morning, but it’s due to fine up later. The latest buoy data is showing a 6 second period south windswell pushing weakly in to our shores. It’s almost two metres out at sea, but it’d be doing exceptionally well to be half that size at the exposed stretches. Of course those exposed spots will also be copping the 10-15 kts of south wind as well, so a very high level of keenness is required this morning.

The models are bouncing around a bit, but for the fourth day running, they’re showing a roughly 72-96 hour run of south swell with 10+ sec periods. Heights at sea may not push much above 2 metres, but with that energy setting, we should be looking at juicy and overhead sets at places that like the predicted S-SSE swell direction. Good to have some real waves in prospect after such a run of miserable smallness.

[starratingmulti id=1 tpl=12]

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Friday until midnight: Wind: S 20/25 knots easing to S/SE 15/20 knots in the afternoon and to 10/15 knots in the evening. Sea: about 2 metres abating to 1 to 1.5 metres later.Swell: SE about 1 metre.
Saturday: Wind: Variable to 10 knots tending NE 10/20 knots. Sea: rising to 1 to 2 metres. Swell: SE 1 to 2 metres.
Sunday: Wind: NW/NE 5/15 knots tending S/SE 10/20 knots early.

Grey southerly morning

Posted by: on March 27th, 2009

Hello Friends,

The expected south change came through last night and it’s rearranged things along the beaches for us. There’s not much in the way of surf, but it isn’t quite flat at Dee Why this morning. A small group of water toy riders were splashing about at the south end of the beach. Waves look pretty much as you’d expect from a short period two metre south windswell.

We’re in for a cloudy day with occasional showers says the Bureau. And here’s their call for the next four days…

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Friday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 20/25 knots, reaching 25/30 knots at times at first, chiefly offshore. Easing to 15/20 knots during the morning, then to 8/13 knots at night.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, abating to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, about 1 metre at night.Swell: E 1.5 to 2 metres, with developing S’ly.
Saturday: Wind: E/SE 8/13 knots, turning NE during the afternoon.Sea: about 1 metre. Swell: S 2 to 3 metres.
Sunday: Wind: NW/NE winds 10/15 knots.

If you roll down the page a little further, you can see what the Goat has to say about our outlook. I may add some thoughts of my own later today – schedule permitting.

Go well!

Southerly going past outside and little ones getting into the beach.

Southerly going past outside and little ones getting into the beach.

Sticky: Dull and tiny

Posted by: on October 21st, 2008
0645: through the gloom, looks like a waist high set

0645: through the gloom, looks like a waist high set


Hello Friends,

The strong wind warning has been hoisted for Sydney coastal waters this morning. As I start writing this around 0700 the SSW’ly is kicking along at 15-25 kts. The touch of westerly is helping the surface conditions at Dee Why right now, but it’s still marginal looking. About the best I saw was the little thing I caught in the picture above.

The Bureau says it’ll be shifting more to the S-SE later. And there’s no prospect of it backing off. In fact the current call is for it to peak into the 25-35 kts range tomorrow morning.

The wind should push up the swell over the next day or so. Right now the MHL buoy off Sydney is showing a couple metres of south windswell, but the average period is just 6 seconds. The models are showing it bumping up to a somewhat more respectable, but still windswelly 9 seconds. Average period down at Eden started ramping up into that range about 12 hours ago, so the longer period stuff should materialise here during the day. The average heights look as though they will build over the next 24-48 hours. If you’ve got a fast connection, you might want to watch stormsurf.com’s animation for SE Australia here as it shows the way the models think our next little pulse will develop.

Speaking of links, I’ll hunt around for something interesting to stick into our new Editor’s cool picks for you later on. When you check it out, you’ll note that I’ve put a form in at the end of the post so that you can tell me about stuff you’ve found that could be worth sharing with everybody. My general idea is to try to keep it surfing related as much as possible and I won’t be posting links to anything that I haven’t personally checked out. Anyway, here’s what I found yesterday.

Have yourself a great day!

Arvo update: signs of life

Posted by: on September 3rd, 2008
At around 10 after 4 there was one very keen person jagging a few junkers at Dee Why point.

At around 10 after 4 there was one very keen person jagging a few junkers at Dee Why point.

Hello Friends,

Taking time away from wrestling with code, I climbed up into the crow’s nest to grab another shot of the point for you. Looks pretty ordinary one would have to say. The big feature is the wind which, as I write this, is belting along at around 20 kts from the SSE. A short period (as in 6 seconds) SE windswell is being pushed up, but while it may be averaging around 2 metres out at sea from the south, inshore at the likes of the point, you’d be doing well to find anything with a face bigger than about a metre.

Still, the indications are that this could be the start of a size increase. Saturday should be interesting… dig the following WAM:

72 hour forecast model

72 hour forecast model

 

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