Hello Friends,

The Bureau is expecting a metre of easterly swell, but the MHL buoy this morning is reporting straight south wind swell of a couple metres and an average period inching toward the 8 second mark. It was glassy early on and Dee Why point was picking up the odd set into the chest high range. There were nice long lulls to be waited out though. But it’s great to see a little something rolling in on a warm summer morning.

The wind is set to come up from the SE according to the forecast and then back off this afternoon before swinging to the NE.

According to the swell models we should have more or less the current levels of energy over the next few days. They are showing a gradual upward trend to the weekend too. Nothing astounding looking at this stage, but January might end with some fun head high waves on Sunday morning at places that like east swell. With luck it’ll stick around to Monday.

Go well with your day!

TIDES: L @0715, H @1320

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast, while another ridge lies across Victoria and southern New South Wales. The trough which brought a southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast on Monday has stagnated and is now weakening. Another trough and associated southerly change will move along the southern half of the coast during Wednesday, although a more vigorous cold front is expected to affect the entire coast at the end of the week, assisted by a strengthening high south of the Bight.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds: Southerly 10 to 20 knots tending southeasterly around 10 knots during the afternoon, then east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Wednesday
Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots tending northeast ahead of a south to southeasterly change 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly 1 metre. The chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Thursday
Winds: Northeast to southeasterly 5 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots at times, decreasing below 15 knots during the morning then decreasing below 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

Have a look at the MHL data for Sydney (below) and you can see why this morning is back to small (but not absolutely flat) again. At lunch time yesterday the swell was almost east at two metres, now it’s dead south. But more importantly, the period slumped from a juicy 14sec to our usual 8s. There were a couple folks in the water patrolling the point at Dee Why and for their trouble were getting the odd waist high thing near the rocks. Another few bods were scattered along the beach where they too were winkling out the odd rideable section.

Hope you were among the many who found a wave to play on over the last couple days!

It looks from the chart as though we’re in to a declining swell pattern for the next couple days. The latest run of the models for our region is currently showing a slight bump upward on Thursday. At this stage it doesn’t look as though it’ll be spectacular, but if it plays out as forecast, we should get something in the waist to chest high range at spots that like s to se energy. We shall see…

Go well with your day!

Hello Friends,

From the look of the radar this morning, we’re in for another bout of rain before it clears up. There are still some little waves to be had, but it looks as though the swell’s not going to deliver as the models were predicting a day or two ago. It’s gone around to the south since yesterday morning (it was supposedly going to be out of the east) and whilst it’s averaging around 2 metres at sea, the period continues to bump along at 8 seconds. The result where spots like Dee Why are concerned is the occasional chest high set amongst mostly smaller waves. Fortunately the early risers have SW wind, so it’s not too bad looking. The water will be pretty ordinary thanks to the torrential rain we had last night across the catchment.

Outlook for east coast waves has not improved in the latest run of models. What we have now in Sydney is set to fade away pretty quickly over the next 24 hours. With any luck it shouldn’t go quite flat until about Saturday – but it will be back into the marginal range by tomorrow morning. The weather looks set to be on again off again cloudy and the temps will be hanging around the 20 mark. I guess this is pretty much in line with typical la nina conditions.

Go well with your day!

TIDES: L @1025, H @1630

Gale warning for New South Wales waters between Broken Bay and Moruya Heads.

Details of warnings are available on the Bureau’s website www.bom.gov.au, by telephone 1300-659-218* or through some TV and radio broadcasts.
Weather Situation

A low is developing within a trough off the New South Wales central coast. This is bringing strong to gale force winds to southern and central coastal waters this morning, although conditions will ease through the day as the low moves away to the southeast. Following this, a high pressure ridge will extend across from the west, and is expected to remain the dominant feature along the coast through to the end of the week, maintaining southwest to southeast winds.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds: West to southwesterly 25 to 35 knots, reaching 45 knots offshore, decreasing to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon then south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots by early evening. Seas: 2 to 3 metres increasing up to 4 metres during the morning then decreasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening. Swell: Easterly about 2 metres. The chance of thunderstorms offshore this morning.
Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Easterly 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Thursday

Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres during the morning. Swell: Easterly about 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Gee, I hope to be proven wrong, but this winter seems to be following the pattern of last year, ie, great start but fizzling into ordinariness by August. I’ve got to wait for the rain to lift before I can get a snap, but from the way it looked through the murk, not much of anything is happening down at Dee Why. Couldn’t see anyone in the water and it seemed to be for good reason as there really ain’t much energy.

Had an errand this morning, so I turned it into a surf check – as you do. Actually it was more sort of a dribble check. Surface conditions were pretty clean under the showery grey skies at around 0900. There were a couple bods waiting around at Mona Vale and another half dozen at the other end of the beach at Warriewood. Set faces were into the chest high range, but the waves were very weak looking thanks to the 8 second period. Since the waves are coming from the south, Northy wasn’t too attractive. You know it’s ordinary when there’s only one person in the water.

I’m going to keep an eye on it today though because despite the general gloominess of the swell forecast models, the MHL buoy off Batemans Bay is showing a slight upward trend in the period. It’s around the 9 second mark down there as opposed to 8 in Sydney. Only a small thing… but ya never know…

There’s an interesting low off NZ on the charts, so I think there’s a possibility that some long period energy could get to the Sydney region in maybe 36-48 hours. Friday for the early could be a goer… if it happens, we should be able to see the energy hit the MHL Eden and Batemans Bay buoys first.

Fingers are crossed…

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots by early evening.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres.Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday: Wind: South to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots tending southerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening.Sea: 1 to 2 metres.Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Friday: Wind: Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.