It was still dark in Sydney as I wrote this early on Wednesday morning. Wind was lightly out of the SW and the next tide was a low at 1050. The MHL spectral data was showing a fair amount of south swell – up to 3 metres – with an average period of 9 seconds. If the wind stays SW, then day breakers could be in for some solid waves at magnet spots. I’m guessing chest on up to potentially solidly overhead on the bombs. The Bureau is calling for southerly wind through the day, so it may be kinda ordinary. There also seem to be a few showers about on the radar too.
Swell looks likely to fade overnight, but maybe Thursday morning at south spots will be worth the effort.
Beyond that, the models are currently showing not much in prospect for Sydney until maybe early next week.
Oddly enough, the same is true for southern California. Right now the weather is perfect, but there’s no wave energy to speak of. The nearest magnet spot to me at the moment is California Street in Ventura (about 50km south). Looking at the local cam, it’s just barely twitching with sub knee high dribblers. However, the current modelling is predicting waist to chest at west magnet spots from Sunday to Weds (when I get on the plane to come home). I’m hoping by that stage my very sick friend will be well enough to get out of hospital and be recovering at home.
So, here’s what the webcam showed Ventura looking like earlier:
C-street about as marginal as it can get and still be catchable. Weirdly wind free too.
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Wednesday 30 October 2013. Weather Situation Winds along the coast are expected to ease during Wednesday and Thursday as a high pressure ridge develops over the western Tasman Sea. Next southerly change is likely to affect the coast during the weekend. Forecast for Wednesday until midnight Winds Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning southeasterly below 10 knots in the evening. Seas 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon. Swell Southerly 1.5 metres. Thursday 31 October Winds Variable about 10 knots becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon then tending southeasterly in the evening. Seas Around 1 metre. Swell Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre , then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon. Friday 1 November Winds Southeasterly about 10 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending northeasterly during the evening. Seas Around 1 metre. Swell Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell ramped overnight. It’s raw and scrappy looking at semi-exposed south spots like Dee Why and cleaner at more protected spots like south Narra. The MHL buoy is showing an average height of 3 metres at sea with an average period of close to 9 seconds, but inshore the wave faces are mostly shoulder high or smaller. You’ll get the most bang for your buck at south spots. Wind was W-WSW for the early – but it’s set to swing south soon…
Have a good one!
Weather Situation A trough and frontal system is expected to move from central to northern parts of the coast today, bringing a fresh to strong southerly change. Meanwhile, a high pressure system near the South Australian border will strengthen before moving across New South Wales today and tomorrow, with winds gradually easing from the south. Another southerly change is expected to move along the coast during Saturday. Forecast for Thursday until midnight Strong wind warning for Thursday for Sydney Coastal Waters Winds Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots turning southerly 20 to 25 knots in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 2 metres by early evening. 1st Swell Southerly around 1 metre, tending southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning, then tending southerly 2 metres during the afternoon. 2nd Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Friday 3 May Winds Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening. Seas Up to 1 metre. 1st Swell Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending southeasterly about 1.5 metres during the afternoon. 2nd Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Saturday 4 May Winds West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Pulled into Saltwater a little before 2 and ten minutes later, having negotiated the dragon’s teeth low tide rocks, we were soon amongst it. Sets were into the head high range on takeoff and although the swell was quite south, it was at least doing something. I won’t exaggerate the quality, but light offshores, consistent sets and an amiable crowd made for a thoroughly fun little sesh. The waves were somewhat fat, but the better ones went for a long way and offered lots of opportunities to work on the old cutback.
When we got out around 430, I grabbed the camera and took a picture for you.
The swell forecast models were caught on the hop. There’s more activity this morning than predicted. Swell is scrappy, but coming from the south at an average height of 3 metres and with an average period of nearly 9 seconds.
Wind was out of the WSW at around 10 kts as we got started.
There were a few bods in the water at Dee Why where set wave faces were into the head high range. The banks didn’t look too flash but the surface conditions were relatively clean considering. We’re heading toward a highish high tide at around 1120, so that extra push is helping matters along too.
The point didn’t seem to be doing much and hadn’t attracted any takers as of 0700. Don’t know what’s going on with the wind, as it was supposed to be southerly at 20-30 kts (tailing off later).
It’s supposed to be a cool day and partly cloudy, so if you have an opening in the schedule, it might be worth a look at your fave south spot just in case…
Have yourself a top old Monday!
A southerly change has moved into Queensland. Behind this change a strong, slow-moving high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge over NSW. The high pressure ridge will continue over the state during the week. During Saturday the high is expected to become centered over the Tasman.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots by early evening.
Up to 3 metres.
Northeasterly 1 metre tending southeasterly 1.5 metres from midday.
Tuesday 1 November
Southeasterly 5 to 15 knots.
Below 1 metre.
Southerly about 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre late in the evening.
Wednesday 2 November
North to northeasterly 5 to 15 knots tending northwesterly during the morning then tending south to southwesterly up to 25 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Below 1 metre increasing up to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Here’s a selection of pictures from South Narrabeen on Saturday morning the 10th of September. I was up the beach north from Marquesas from around 0820-0930. Some nice waves were had before the tide started to swamp it. As always, click on a pic to go to the gallery.
Now, here’s a mystery. According to the MHL Sydney waverider buoy, the swell is dead south at a respectable three metres with an okay period of close to 9 seconds. And yet it’s only about waist to chest high at best along the Dee Why to No Man’s stretch. There were a couple chaps on a small and junky peak at the aforesaid No Man’s and the wave in the picture broke for some distance, but the SSE wind was pushing along at a junk-inducing 10-15 kts.
If you look at the MHL combined plot, you’ll see the swell spiked up to 4 metres at Batemans Bay late yesterday and has now dropped back just under two metres at daybreak. Sydney seems to have peaked at closer to three metres and is headed downward pretty quickly.
All of which is a long way of saying that you should get out there asap while the tide is starting to run back in (the low was 0730) as it heads for a high at around 1340. The wind is set to moderate as it swings through the onshore quarters from SE to NE by this afternoon.
Huey’s looking like staying in an indolent mood for at least another week to ten days according to the latest run of the wave forecast models for our part of the world. It would appear that we can expect the energy levels to bump up and down in the ankle to waist high range across the period.
Go well with your day and good luck with your wave hunting!
A high pressure system over the Bight will move quickly east through Bass Strait to the Tasman Sea today. It will then remain over the southern Tasman Sea through the week, with a ridge extending to the mid-north coast of New South Wales. The next southerly change may affect the New South Wales coast on Thursday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots around midday then tending east to northeasterly by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 1.5 to 3 metres.
Forecast for Wednesday
Winds: North to northeasterly 5 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.
Forecast for Thursday
Winds: Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly up to 10 knots during the morning then tending southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds tending northeast to southeasterly up to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre.
Usual leisurely start for yours truly this morning. The steady rain on the roof lulled me back to dreamland a few times… meanwhile, the keen were chasing chest to head high sets in the murky waters of Dee Why. Wind is out of the SSW at around 10-15kts and the south swell is averaging about 3 metres on a period of close to 9 seconds. Those are juicy settings so hence the crowds.
It looks as though the swell will stick around through today and should still be doing something tomorrow morning – if we’re lucky.
The current projections from the WAMs is for the energy levels to fade away as the week goes along and by Friday it could be back to near flat again as the monsoon trough simmers down.
(All that rain means that the ocean will continue to be heavily polluted by stormwater runoff. Whadya bet there will be lots of busy GPs by this time next week as all those ear, nose and throat cases come in. You’d have rocks in your head to get in on a day like this if you’ve got any unhealed cuts or scrapes.)
I’m gonna watch and wait myself, but whatever you decide, have yourself a safe and good one!
Tides: L @1040, H @1620 Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Sunday until midnight: Wind: S/SW 15/20 knots decreasing then turning E/NE 15/20 knots.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres.Swell: E/NE about 2 metres. Chance thunderstorms Monday: Wind: NE 10/15 knots.Sea: about 1 metre.Swell: NE 1.5 to 2 metres. Tuesday: Wind: NE 5/15 knots. Forecast for Sunday Rain periods, heavy at times. Chance thunderstorm. Light to moderate south to southeast winds, fresh near the coast tending moderate to fresh east to northeast in the afternoon.
High tide and south swell is not perhaps the ideal combo. Having peaked during the dark hours, it was averaging around the 3 metre mark out at sea with a period of about 9 seconds. Some energy was getting into the south end of the Collaroy Narrabeen stretch, but by the time you were at the Kick, it was maybe knee to waist high. Around the corner at Long Reef bombies the sets were probably in the 8-10 foot faces range but no one was out, so I couldn’t be absolutely certain.
Things were and still are more surfable at the Dee Why end of the beach. However the wind is clearly going to be a factor. When I rocked up here about half an hour ago it was comparatively smooth inside, but as I sit in Sea Change tapping out these words, the sind seems to be coming more around and it’s lumping the faces up. It’s also letting more swell in, because there are now consistently 2-3 metre faces at the point.
The wind forecast is not too bad considering and as the tide drops we should have a few more surf options around the place. This is a pretty raw sort of swell because Huey’s making it relatively nearby, so I’m not hopeful of it cleaning up into the all time category, or even the semi-all time range, but I’m not complaining. The models are sticking with their call of the last few days for a fairly rapid falling off from the peak height, but remaining well into the surfable range through Thursday morning.
I’m planning to get a few more pictures today so stay tuned for a fresh gallery (Huey willing).
Since you’ve read this far, I’m hoping you won’t mind my respectfully placing before you the opportunity to show RealSurf a little direct appreciation… it’s been a few years since we last ran a fundraiser… thanks in advance for your generosity, I shall continue to do my best on your behalf! -Don
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Strong wind warning Tuesday until midnight: Wind: S/SW 25/33 knots. S/SW 15/20 knots inshore early morning.Sea: 2.5 to 3.5 metres. Swell: S/SE 3.5 to 4 metres, breaking dangerously, close inshore. Wednesday: Wind: S/SW 20/25 knots, easing to S/SE 15/20 knots during the afternoon, SE 10/15 knots by evening. Sea: 2 to 2.5 metres, abating to about 1 metre.. Swell: S/SE 3 to 4 metres. Thursday: Wind: Variable 5/10 knots, tending E/NE 15/20 during the afternoon, N/NE 20/25 knots during the evening.
First stop this morning for me was at lovely south Curl Curl. Bitterly cold at 0700 and already well populated, it was nonetheless quite consistent and, as it turned out, the biggest spot I looked at. Set wave faces were well overhead and despite a kind of raw look, there were some longish rides being had. I filed a live report from the beach (see bottom right for link) and grabbed a few snaps. The dominant impression is that the swell is generally slow and not very intense. Certainly there are snappy sections now and again, but mostly it’s looking kinda soft to me.
The bigger ones were looking interesting around 0700.
Kinda sectiony but fun to play around on at south Curl Curl.
Over the hill at Dee Why it was equally busy in the water as the pre-work crew grabbed a few wave memories to carry them through the day. When I first pulled up it looked as though the point might be kinda interesting, but after watching for awhile it turned out to be pretty slow and weak. Better for the fishy or mal I’d say.
The beachbreak was even less impressive. The swell looked promising on approach but most of the time the payoff was fat and full looking. I saw a couple fun-ish looking lefts come through and the light offshores were contributing in a positive way to the experience.
Maintaining a low centre of gravity at Dee Why beach.
Even at this size, you had to work 'em at the point around 0730.
After filing another quick live report and snapping a few piccies, I was glad to get back into a warm car* and head for my final check out spot on this run – Edgecliff Blvd on Collaroy Plateau. The southern end of the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch was showing some okay size too. Not nearly as consistent though as the more exposed Curly and Dee Why.
*reminds me… I’d advise taking a couple litres of hot water with ya this morning. You’ll really be looking forward to the warming jolt when you’re back at the car getting changed out of your wettie.
They aren't that frequent, but sets look good.
High tide is just on 1000 this morning and low will be at around 1540.
Outlook is for the swell to weaken as the day goes along and by tomorrow to be back into the waist high range.