Hello Friends,

Well, I’ve been right through the WAMs and numerous riffs thereupon and I can report that the outlook for the east coast of Oz remains bleak for at least another couple days. If we’re lucky, there might be a little bump into the thigh high range on Sunday morning. But if the supercomputers have crunched the numbers accurately, we’re looking like facing another week of micro to extremely marginal conditions. There are a few lows in the deep southern ocean, but the forecasts show them staying well away from our swell window (SW WA, SA and Western Vic should be okay though). Meanwhile, the Coral Sea and environs is looking pretty quiet.

What can ya do, but wait, eh?

Go well with your day and keep on smilin’ through!

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds

East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.

Seas

Below 1 metre.

Swell

Northeasterly 0.5 metres.

Friday 18 November

Winds

Northeasterly 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Seas

Below 1 metre.

Swell

Northeasterly 0.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Managed to get one pic before the fog swirled back in again this morning. It’ll burn off as the day goes along. Not a lot going on wave-wise it has to be said. The Bureau says the swell should be out of the east, but according to the MHL buoy the dominant energy is from the SE this morning. Average size at sea is about a metre and the period is sitting on about 9 seconds. There were a few bods up the beach from the surf club at Dee Why getting the very occasional knee to waist high set. Looks like a great morning to just be paddling about, enjoying the unusual on again off again fog, catching the odd little peeler and chatting with mates.

The outlook is for conditions to bump along at about these settings through lunchtime. By then the NE’r should have settled in and the surf options will be contracting to the north corners.

The swell is fading slowly away, but according to this morning’s run of the forecast models, it should be not quite flat tomorrow. Early in the week is looking rather dire at this stage. Happily some of the models are showing a small but long period pulse possibly developing late in the week at south spots.

Have yourself a great Saturday!

TIDES: L @1215 H @1845

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds

Northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly during the morning then increasing to up to 15 knots around midday.

Seas

Below 1 metre.

Swell

Easterly about 1.5 metres.

Weather

Areas of morning fog inshore with reduced visibility. The chance of thunderstorms offshore this afternoon and evening.

Sunday 28 August

Winds

West to northwesterly 5 to 15 knots ahead of early south to southwesterly change 15 to 20 knots before dawn, then easing to southeasterly up to 10 knots around midday. Winds tending northeast to northwest up to 10 knots by early evening then tending west to northwesterly later in the evening and at night.

Seas

About 1 to 1.5 metre.

Swell

Easterly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

Very cold start this morning. In fact it was so cold that I actually spotted some frost on the sand at south Narrabeen. Yikes! Waves are much smaller now. Places that were surfable yesterday were just about flat this morning. There were a few bods giving the shorey and the point a go at Dee Why, but the one metre SE swell just wasn’t doing anything.

The latest run of the swell forecast models this morning continues to show flatness for the next three days.

A long period (15 sec) pulse of an estimated duration of around 12 hours is currently showing up for Friday night – Saturday morning. If it develops as expected, south swell spots could be into the chest high range (with the odd bigger one of course). On current reckoning it seems we might still have some little ones around on Sunday, but it appears we’re then headed back into a day or two of very small. In the “I’ll believe it when I see it” department, one interpretation of the long range data has us getting another very long period pulse on Tuesday. The numbers are pretty stupid though (20 sec at around 1.5 metres) so I’d be taking that with many grains of salt at this stage.

Have yourself a top old Wednesday one and all!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending westerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening.Sea: Below 1 metre rising 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.Swell: Southerly below 1 metre.
Thursday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 20 knots tending west to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots around midday.Sea: Below 1 metre, rising up to 2 metres offshore during the morning.Swell: Southeasterly 0.5 metres tending easterly during the evening.
Friday: Wind: West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots.

Hello Friends,

Only a few characters willing to brave the single digit temp this morning to get in for the early at Dee Why. Rideable sets are pretty far apart now, so those hardy types were doing a fair amount of waiting for the chest high bombs. Wind was offshore and it looks set to stay that way all day.

As the sun came over the horizon, the MHL buoy was showing about a metre of SE swell coming in at 9 seconds apart. That’s half the size of yesterday but thanks to the aforesaid period setting, it’s not into the realms of flatness quite yet.

The Outlook

From the shape of the forecast models this morning, we’re still looking at a gradual decline to flatness by Thursday. If they’ve got it right, the models say the flatness will last through most of Friday before a brief long period pulse comes in from the south. Assuming it pans out as currently predicted, Saturday morning’s early will be the peak. If the 14 second period shows up, we could see solidly overhead bomb sets at south facing beaches.

Right now the models show the peak of the pulse lasting about 12 hours – most of which will be when it’s dark. Beyond Saturday we really are getting into the highly speculative end of things. But, for what it’s worth, the prospect is for more small but not flat conditions as the average swell energy bumbles around in the 1-2 metre range. The continental high seems to be bouncing the southern ocean systems away from us for the time being.

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots.Sea: Below 1 metre.Swell: Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots later in the evening.Sea: Below 1 metre increasing 1 to 2 metres offshore.Swell: Southerly about 1 metre.
Thursday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 20 knots tending southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Had one of those “Dad can you drive me to… ” moments that I subsequently enlarged to a surf check. Stopped by Curly to see what the little swell was doing. It was bigger than Dee Why, but the quality was strictly so-so. A bit junky with a light sideshore, but that would be okay if there was also a little more energy. Waves were occasionally into the chest high plus range for the reasonable size crowd, but they were just sort of flabby and gutless looking. Which kinda makes sense given the average period was around the 8-9 second mark.

The good news is that the latest run of data from the MHL buoys shows the period ramping up pretty steeply in the last three hours… so maybe by this afternoon it’ll start to turn into something more interesting…