Articles tagged with "SE-3m-11s"

Early or no dice and a postcard or two

Posted by: on November 27th, 2015

Hello Friends,

As of 0300 this morning, the MHL buoy was picking up close to 3 metres of 11-sec SE swell. And at 0600 wind was very lightly offshore. Wind is set to come up from the SE this morning and then to swing NE later. So, there should be solid size at places that can hold it. The period’s long enough that it might even get around into spots like the Bower… maybe… possibly…

The models reckon the swell energy will back off today and into tomorrow, but right now it looks to me as though there should be something pretty much for the next week – to which I say Yay because I’ll be back to file again by Thursday.

It’s Thanksgiving day here, so as most of you will probably know, it’s the big family-gathering holiday of the year. I’m down south in a little inland town called Poway. It’s about 45 minutes from the ocean but there’s only very weak and gutless and crowded dribble on offer. I grabbed a picture from Surfline of a very famous longboarding reef called Swami’s. Tide’s super high this morning and the wind is coming up too. Probably won’t abandon family to disappear for hours on a surf hunt. 🙂

Have yourself a top old Friday one and all!

swamis

Swami’s, north San Diego County, Thanksgiving morning

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Saturday 28 November
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Sunday 29 November
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Tuesday early and waves with offshores

Posted by: on September 1st, 2015

Hello Friends,

Swell’s dropped back just a touch this morning, but it’s still delivering head plus wave faces for the crowd at Dee Why point. As of 0600 it was coming from the SSE at just shy of the 3 metre mark with an average period of 10 seconds. At 0730, wind was westerly at 10 kts or so. Tide is heading toward a high at 1000.

Weather outlook is for a sunny day with SW’ly wind for the morning sesh, turning lightly onshore from the SE this afternoon.

Tomorrow the wind will be SW swinging NW in the morning and NE’ly in the afternoon. Swell should be down more as it continues to fade away. But, it’s looking being into the chest to head high range – particularly in the morning.

Beyond that, the modelling is variable, but the more optimistic interpretations are pointing to surfable through to Friday when it seems we might get a short-lived SE pulse.

Have a fine old Tuesday everybody and stay happy!

dy point surfing

Waves at 0700

dy point surfing

Another set rolls through the point for this morning’s early risers

dy beach

Yep, still doing the straighthander thing along the beach

Home again and waves too but still very cold

Posted by: on July 19th, 2015

Hello Friends,

After a 2.5 day stopover in Waikiki on the way back to Oz, your correspondent has returned to regular reporting duties once more.
(It was just about flat on the south shore, but I did rent a mal for an hour and managed to catch something at Threes, where there were only four others in the water. I last surfed it as a raw beginner 46 years ago.)
Although the forecast is calling for 15-20 kts south-SE wind later, it was still offshore at 0830 when I grabbed today’s snaps of the 3 metre 11-sec SE swell from the RealSurf crows nest.
We’re going to a high of 16 today. There’s a 70% chance of more showers too. Tide was low at 0420.
A few thoughts about the outlook on the other side of the pics…

dy beach wave

Empty peak up the beach about 0820


1.
dy bodyboarding

Bodyboarder in the slot at the point


2.
dy point lined up with waves

Consistent supply of sets at the point this morning


3.
From this morning’s swell models it appears that we should have waves again tomorrow, although the Bureau is calling for east to SE wind. Swell should decline today though and tomorrow could see it maintain the downward trend toward marginal to just surfable conditions for later this week. Long range outlook is for small through to the middle of next week when we may see another little winter pulse come up for Tuesday-ish.
Have yourself a great day one and all!

Still heaps of swell

Posted by: on May 16th, 2015

Hello Friends,

Wind was light SW as the day dawned. Skies were heavily overcast with the odd shower and as of 0630 it was around 12 at RealSurf HQ. The MHL buoy was picking up 3 metres of 11-sec SE swell as of 0300, having peaked yesterday at 4 metres. Tide was high at 0630 and will be back to low at 1230.

Once there was enough light to see, it became apparent that the swell has dropped a fair amount since yesterday. It isn’t small though. From south Narrabeen to Northy looked to be in the head high range on sets (no one was in the water and it didn’t look very peaky). Collaroy was probably in the waist range and around at Dee Why, sets were shoulder-ish plus at the point and head-ish plus along the beach, but both were pretty fat with the high tide.

From the shape of the forecasts, the swell looks set to fade away over the next couple of days and be down to flatness by mid-week. Wind is set to be an issue soon and it’ll be a factor again tomorrow, although it should be okay for the early.

Have a great Saturday and keep on smilin’!

Northy unappetizing at 0645

Northy unappetizing at 0645

The Gardens not so hot

The Gardens not so hot

Marquesas peak looking do-able

Marquesas peak looking do-able

Set wave at the point 0650

Set wave at the point 0650

Up the beach

Up the beach

Beachy peaks sorta fat looking at 0650

Beachy peaks sorta fat looking at 0650






Weather Situation
A strong high is centred west of Bass Strait, while a deep low lies near New Zealand. A vigorous southerly flow is being generated between these systems, bringing strong winds and large seas to much of the New South Wales coast today. Conditions will ease during the weekend as the high drifts slowly eastwards, with winds developing more of an onshore direction. By Monday the high is expected to be over the Tasman Sea and winds should shift more northerly ahead of the next frontal system, which is forecast to affect the coast mid-week.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres later in the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 17 May
Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon, then tending southeasterly 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Monday 18 May
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Pumping under stormy skies

Posted by: on May 8th, 2014

Hello Friends,

Wind was WNW, skies were threatening and swell was out of the SE at 3 metres with a period of 11 seconds. 30 people were in the water at the point and almost as many more were playing whack-a-mole with double-overhead rogue sets along the beach. Set wave faces at the point were double overhead plus, but the something’s not quite right about the banks because the sets are sectioning unmakeably a lot of the time. Competition was pretty fierce too. Fortunately the swell was very consistent when I first looked at 0700, so if you don’t make one, there’ll be another along soon.

Wind is supposed to go southerly soon and get up to 15-20 kts before backing off to around 10 later. Swell should be peaking this morning and then fading gradually but still being around the 2 metre mark for tomorrow – when the wind should be light and variable.

From the look of the forecasts, it should still be surfable, but getting smaller still on Saturday and Sunday’s looking marginal at this stage.

Have yourself a great Thursday and if you’re early in your surfing career, watch the beach for awhile before deciding if you’ll paddle out.

Stay happy!

Large crew chasing some wild ones at the point @0700

Large crew chasing some wild ones at the point @0700

Among the shutdowns, some sweet walls.

Among the shutdowns, some sweet walls.

Weather Situation
A high is centred to the southwest of Tasmania and a deep low is near New Zealand. Between the two systems a southerly airstream is being directed along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to move northeast and become established over the Tasman Sea on Friday. A cold front is expected to move along the coast during Sunday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres around dawn, then decreasing to 3 metres by early evening.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 9 May
Winds
Variable to about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres later in the evening.
Saturday 10 May
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 2 metres.

Briefly sunny and pumping this morning

Posted by: on April 14th, 2014

Hello Friends,

Brilliant looking conditions as Monday got started. Definitely for the fit and experienced only out at the point. Wave faces were anywhere from head high to double, maybe double plus on the bombs. Swell is out of the SE at 11 seconds apart with a height at sea of 3 metres (up to 5 metres when you add in the seas).

Not super crowded at the point, but you won’t be Robinson Crusoe either.

Wind is going to be southerly 15-20 kts soon (it was SW for the early sesh) and then will be SE in the evening. Showers are coming along later too.

Tide was high at 0805 and the low will arrive at 1330.

This morning’s swell models are saying it should kick along at a little below the current size through to Saturday. I went shooting Saturday and yesterday at the point, and I may just take a few more snaps today.

Have yourself a fantastic Monday and take care if you’re getting in.

Consistent quality this morning at 0720

Consistent quality this morning at 0720

Outstanding set @ 0720

Outstanding set @ 0720

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the Tasman Sea slowly tracks to the southeast followed by a high pressure ridge strengthening across the region into the new week.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 metres.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 15 April
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Wednesday 16 April
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms.

Stormy Wednesday

Posted by: on February 5th, 2014

Hello Friends,

10-15 kts of SSE wind knocking the tops off a choppy and grey sea this morning. Swell was showing at nearly 3 metres and 11 seconds from the SE as of 0400 according to the recently revived MHL Sydney buoy. Nothing approaching that size at Dee Why when I checked for the first time a little after 0700. About the biggest I saw was a shorey with a wave face in the shoulder plus range. There were three or four bods poking about at the point, but I didn’t see them pick anything up. Swell looked scuddy and flabby there and inclined to shutdown in the shorey. You had to be keen!
Looking at the trends, I’d say the swell energy probably peaked overnight and according to the modelling, will fade across the day – but not go flat. The SE wind is forecast to be around all day, overnight and into tomorrow. It does look as though tomorrow morning might see it being pretty light and therefore maybe a better prospect than today. Friday looks more promising again, as we could still have a little SE energy hanging around and light winds for the early with a standard issue afternoon NE’r later.
So, maybe a few fun ones for Friday and Saturday morning.
Have yourself a smoothly operating Wednesday!

Tides: L @0723, H @1335

Searching for a wave

Searching for a wave

Nicely judged section @0730

Nicely judged section @0730

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough is currently moving northwards along the New South Wales coast. This is bringing gusty south to southeasterly winds as it moves northwards, with a high near Tasmania pushing a ridge along the coast in its wake. Winds will gradually shift northerly during the second half of the week as the next high becomes established over the Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Thursday 6 February
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Friday 7 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.

Write it off this morning

Posted by: on June 26th, 2013

Whattamess

Hello Friends,

Fergedaboutit. Despite all the huffing and puffing, the swell’s looking smaller at Dee Why-Long Reef and Collaroy-Narrabeen. But the real issue is that wind. It’s SE at 15-20 kts and the ocean is a mess. There’s not enough swell to wrap into Collaroy and everywhere else is just a choppy mess. Swell is out of the SE at around 3 metres with a juicy 11 second period, but it’s so smashed up by the wind it hardly matters.

The Bureau says the wind will weaken a bit this morning, but it’s not going to glass off or turn offshore or anything useful to us.

Outlook is for the SE’ly to be doing its dirty work through tomorrow, albeit with less velocity. Could be Friday before things clean up.

Go well with your Wednesday!

Forecast issued at 4:11 am EST on Wednesday 26 June 2013.
Weather Situation
A strong, slow moving high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge to the northern Tasman Sea while a low pressure trough with a few small lows embedded in it lies off New South Wales coast. The trough is expected to move east today and during Thursday as the high moves to the south strengthening the ridge across the western Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong wind warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coastal Waters
Winds
Southeasterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 2 metres around midday, then decreasing below 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms.
Caution
Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Thursday 27 June
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Up to 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Friday 28 June
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres.

Sticky: Still messy

Posted by: on June 13th, 2012

East swell really macking, but the water looks horrendous and the showers keep coming…


Hello Friends,

Not quite as ordinary as yesterday morning, but pretty close. Swell settings aren’t bad, namely 3 metres from the SE at 11 seconds. But the ocean is still heaving around messily thanks to a couple days of SEly. At 0730 most places in Sydney were showing S-SW wind, so just maybe it’ll begin to clean up a little as the day goes along.

The curious thing is that forecast is calling for an east swell to be coming in by now, but the MHL buoy is showing the dominant direction as SE as of 0600. Looking at the WRL pic from this morning shows a much more easterly look to the swell (compared to the ambiguous messiness of DY).

Outlook is for the energy to be mainly east in the Sydney region through Saturday and for it to be gradually declining through the period, but not dropping into the unsurfable range. The wind should be more favourable from tomorrow, so right now it looks as though Thursday and Friday might be fun.

Go well with your day!

Tides: L @0930 H @1600

Sth Narra 0700 WRL pic

Weather Situation
A low pressure system in the southern Coral Sea is extending a trough along the NSW coast. The low is expected to move eastward, with the trough gradually weakening as a ridge of high pressure strengthens from the southeast.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 3 metres.
Thursday 14 June
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres from the late morning.
Friday 15 June
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 3 metres.

Sticky: Fantastic Friday

Posted by: on March 9th, 2012

 

 

Hello Friends,

Well, it’s pumping this morning. Swell is averaging 3 metres at sea from the SE and is packing a period of 11 seconds. Wind was light out of the WNW and skies were clear, so strangely, it was really crowded at Dee Why point and up the beach. Whodathunk? Sets are solidly overhead at both spots, but the biggest ones are hitting the beach. Tide is heading to a high at 0915 or so, but I don’t think it’s a big factor given the size.

Looking at the curve of the Batemans Bay buoy swell data, I’d say we’re going to see it drop steadily through the day, but it won’t be going flat until next week (if the models are right).

The wind will soon go SW and by this afternoon it’ll be into junk mode as it comes more out of the SE.

So draw your conclusions and act accordingly!

Oh, and Beachwatch says water pollution is likely.

Friday 09 March 2012
Issued at 7:30 AM
Pollution is likely at all beaches today

Rainfall data has been used to predict the likelihood of bacterial contamination at Sydney’s ocean beaches. When pollution is likely, swimmers may be at increased risk of contracting illness and swimming at these sites should be avoided.

Weather Situation from the Bureau
A complex low pressure system off the NSW south coast is expected to move slowly south during Friday with strong southwest winds for the south coast. A relatively weak front will bring fresh to strong winds to the south coast again tomorrow before a high pressure system in the Bight extends a ridge across NSW. This high will move slowly east over the following few days and extend a ridge over NSW.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
West to northwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending west to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots during the morning then tending southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 3 metres.
Saturday 10 March
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around dawn.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 3 metres.
Sunday 11 March
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 3 metres.

 

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