Posts in Forecast

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on September 11th, 2009 in Forecast.

SURF FORECAST ISSUED FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2009:

SEVEN DAY OUTLOOK FOR SYDNEY:

 

Waves for the weekend… With a brief warm interlude of temps up to 30, you should notice a contrast (!) with the water temp at 17.  Just for info, according to the Bureau’s website Sydney’s highest September daily maximum was 34.6 in 1965.

 

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range from the North East.

Sunday: ditto.

Monday: about 1 metre East.

Tuesday: 1-2 metres east South East.

Wednesday: 1-2 metres East North East.

Thursday: ditto.

Friday: ditto but dropping back.

Ken is having good weather on the Gold Coast with OK fun waves… he’s having a nanna nap just now.

Have a good one.

 

Weather from the Bureau:

 

Forecast for Friday
Fine. Sunny. Light to moderate west to northwest winds and afternoon seabreezes.
Precis: Fine. Sunny.

City:          Max:   22  Parramatta:  Max:   24
Terrey Hills:  Max:   21  Penrith:     Max:   25
Liverpool     Max:   24  Richmond:    Max:   24

UV Alert: 9:40 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Forecast for Saturday
Fine. Sunny. Light to moderate northwest winds, with afternoon seabreezes near the coast.

Precis: Fine. Sunny.

City:  Min:   13  Max:   29
West:  Min:    7  Max:   30

Sunday Fine. Sunny.

City:  Min:   15  Max:   30
West:  Min:   11  Max:   30

Monday Fine.

City:  Min:   16  Max:   23
West:  Min:   11  Max:   25

Tuesday Mostly fine.

City:  Min:   15  Max:   23
West:  Min:    9  Max:   25

Wednesday Fine.

City:  Min:   12  Max:   21
West:  Min:    5  Max:   23

Thursday Mostly fine.

City:  Min:   12  Max:   24
West:  Min:    5  Max:   26

 

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Friday until midnight: Wind: W 10/15 knots, tending E/NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon, and N/NW 15/20 knots in the evening.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: S/SE 2 to 3 metres decreasing.
Saturday: Wind: N/NW 15/20 knots reaching 20/25 knots in the afternoon and evening.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres. Swell: SE about 1.5 metres.
Sunday: Wind: N/NW 20/30 knots.


The Goat’s Forecast

Posted on August 27th, 2009 in Forecast.

SURF FORECAST ISSUED THURSDAY 27 AUGUST 2009:  Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well it is Windy August… the time of offshores and flat surf…

Friday: flat.

Saturday: small NE windswell – with wind

Sunday:: about a metre or so at places that like dead South swell, could be a bit more.

Monday: about 1 metre dead South.

Tuesday:  about 1 metre or less.

Wednesday: ditto

Thrusday: small North East windswell

 

It was great to be part of the welcome home team at the Opera House this morning for Craig Goozee,  friend and Avalon Beach SLSC member this morning, who is raising money for children’s cancer research under the a2b4c banner…   http://www.a2b4c.com.au/

He is amazing.  He’s cycled, run, paddled 12,500 kilometres around Australia in 92 days!  Check out the pics on his daily blog…

Know of anyone else who’s done anything that comes close to that??  He looked as fit as a fiddle…not even puffing.  This is his third and last trip.  We followed his first trip up the coast in 1998 and reported his daily progress on realsurf… itself worth a re-read on the a2b4c site (‘about a2b4c’).

As well as all that the physical effort, all along the way he’s given talks to raise donations.  Who would have the energy to do that??

You can still donate here, to this worthy cause… 

https://donate.ccia.org.au/donate/a2b4c-donation.php?referer=A2B2C

The Goat.

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for Thursday evening
Fine. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds.
Precis: Fine.

Forecast for Friday
Fine. Mostly sunny though cloud increasing late in the day. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds.
Precis: Fine. Mostly sunny.

City:         Min:  10 Max:  23   Parramatta: Min:   8 Max:  25
Terrey Hills: Min:   9 Max:  22   Penrith:    Min:   6 Max:  25
Liverpool:    Min:   4 Max:  25   Richmond:   Min:   3 Max:  25

UV Alert: 10:00 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Saturday Shower or two. Windy.

City:          Min:   13  Max:   27
West:          Min:    7  Max:   27

Sunday Fine. Wind easing.

City:          Min:   16  Max:   20
West:          Min:   10  Max:   20

Monday Fine. Mostly sunny.

City:          Min:    8  Max:   21
West:          Min:    1  Max:   21

Tuesday Chance shower.

City:          Min:   10  Max:   21
West:          Min:    3  Max:   21

Wednesday Mostly fine.

City:          Min:   11  Max:   19
West:          Min:    5  Max:   19

Thursday Chance shower.

City:          Min:   12  Max:   24
West:          Min:    5  Max:   24

 

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Thursday until midnight: Wind: NE/NW winds 10/15 knots.Sea: around 1 metre.Swell: S around 1 metre.
Friday: Wind: NW/NE 10/15 knots, reaching 20 knots offshore during the evening.Sea: to 1.5 metres. Swell: S about 1 metre.
Saturday: Wind: N/NW 20/30 knots.
Sunday: Wind: NW 20/30 knots tending SW 20/30 knots early morning then easing to 10/20 knots


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 30th, 2009 in Forecast.

Surf Forecast issued Thursday 30 July 2009: Seven day outlook for Sydney

Up, and down, and up and down and up – I think I’m feeling seasick

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range – upper end at places that like refracted South swell.

 

Saturday: ditto then dropping

 

Sunday: about 1 metre South

 

Monday: ditto

 

Tuesday: coming up – about 1-2 metres South

 

Wednesday: 1-2 metre range South

 

Thursday: small maybe a metre or less, then up from the South.

 

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range South

 

Water temp is around 16-17…

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for Thursday evening
Fine. Light to moderate westerly winds.
Precis: Fine.

Forecast for Friday
Fine. Some morning cloud then mostly sunny afternoon. Light to moderate westerly winds.
Precis: Fine. Morning cloud.

City:         Min:   9 Max:  19   Parramatta: Min:   7 Max:  19

Terrey Hills: Min:   8 Max:  18   Penrith:    Min:   6 Max:  19

Liverpool:    Min:   5 Max:  19   Richmond:   Min:   5 Max:  19

UV Alert: Nil , UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday Fine. Mostly sunny.

City:          Min:    8  Max:   19

West:          Min:    2  Max:   19

Sunday Fine.

City:          Min:    9  Max:   19

West:          Min:    4  Max:   19

Monday Fine.

City:          Min:    9  Max:   19

West:          Min:    4  Max:   19

Tuesday Fine.

City:          Min:   11  Max:   18

West:          Min:    6  Max:   18

Wednesday Fine.

City:          Min:    8  Max:   16

West:          Min:    3  Max:   16

Thursday Fine.

City:          Min:    7  Max:   18

West:          Min:    2  Max:   18

Shark attack off Broken Head – from the Northern Star Lismore

Saffron Howden | 30th July 2009

 

A file picture of a Bronze Whaler.

A 14-year-old surfer was thrown into the air and left with a graze and a punctured wetsuit after a shark made a bee-line for his board this morning near Byron Bay.

The Northern Star understands the local boy, who was surfing off Broken Head, was paddling back out from the shore when he and the shark collided.

The impact caused the boy to fly into the air and his wet suit was swiped and punctured, leaving him grazed.

It is understood his injuries are not severe.

The attack comes as the shark season ramps up in line with the migration of fish they feed on.

“(Shark season) seems to correspond with the run of Australian salmon up the coast,” fisherman and fishing correspondent Tony Zann said.

“The professional industry has virtually stopped fishing for them.”

But Mr Zann said shark attacks could happen at any time.

“At any time of the year if you’re swimming or surfing around a great school of fish your chances of being bitten by a shark are raised astronomically,” he said.

Mr Zann said sharks were particularly active at first and last light.

 

http://www.northernstar.com.au/story/2009/07/30/shark-atta


TG’s Forecast

Posted on June 4th, 2009 in Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 4 June 2009: Seven day outlook for Sydney: 

Small and gettin’ smaller for the Snowy, but we should have some fine weather after the dark skis and rain.

Friday: about 1 metre or so North East, East.

Saturday:about 1 metre South East, East.

Sunday: 1 metre or less.

Monday: less than 1 metre.

Tuesday: 1 metre or less dead South.

Wednesday: about 1 metre dead South.

Thursday: ditto.

 

More News later…
 

Weather from the Bureau 

Forecast for Thursday evening 
A shower or two. Fog patches developing. Light winds.  
Precis: Shower or two.

Forecast for Friday  
Morning fog areas. The chance of a shower, mostly afternoon. Partly cloudy. Light to moderate west to southwest winds. 
Precis: Morning fog. Chance shower.

City:         Min:  12 Max:  20   Parramatta: Min:  10 Max:  20

Terrey Hills: Min:  11 Max:  18   Penrith:    Min:  11 Max:  20

Liverpool:    Min:   9 Max:  20   Richmond:   Min:   9 Max:  19

UV Alert: Nil , UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday Fine. Mostly sunny.

City:          Min:    9  Max:   20

West:          Min:    5  Max:   19

Sunday Chance shower.

City:          Min:    9  Max:   19

West:          Min:    5  Max:   18

Monday Fine.

City:          Min:   10  Max:   19

West:          Min:    7  Max:   18

Tuesday Fine.

City:          Min:    9  Max:   17

West:          Min:    5  Max:   17

Wednesday Fine.

City:          Min:    8  Max:   18

West:          Min:    4  Max:   17

Thursday Mostly fine.

City:          Min:    9  Max:   17

West:          Min:    5  Max:   16


At 1000

Posted on March 31st, 2009 in Forecast.

Situation at 1000.

Wind is 20-25kts SE. Swell is averaging 4 metres from the east at 9 seconds (see below for snap from MHL Sydney buoy.

But Coffs and Crowdy show there’s likely more coming our way. Currently average heights up there are registering at 6 metres with average period around the 11 sec mark. That’s damn big.

Our next high tide is around 1230… but it’s not as big as the one at around 0100 tomorrow when the peak energy could be arriving.

I’m going out and about for another look in about an hour (around 1100)

Bureau’s latest call:

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: E/SE 15/20 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres.Swell: E 2.5 to 3.5 metres, breaking dangerously close inshore.
Wednesday: Wind: E 20/30 knots, gradually easing to E/NE 15/20 knots. Sea: 2 to 3 metres, gradually abating to 1.5 to 2 metres. Swell: E 3 metres, breaking dangerously close inshore.
Thursday: Wind: NE 10/20 knots.

MHL Sydney looking just a little nutty...

MHL Sydney looking just a little nutty...


Big Wednesday?

Posted on March 30th, 2009 in Forecast.

Hello all,

Been meaning to share a few thoughts about the possibility of Wednesday being big in Sydney. The long range models from the likes of Buoyweather.com and Magicseaweed.com have been playing pretty much the same riff on the data that drives the WAMs. Speaking of which, here is WAM for Wednesday…

Will this happen?

Will this happen?

As you can see from the colour, the models are predicting 15-20 ft east swell pretty much up and down the east coast. Although I haven’t posted it here, the corresponding period forecast is for a power setting of 10-11 seconds. So, we’re talking significant juice as well as size.

Although the forecasts can never be precise, it would appear that the peak energy is going to happen sometime in the early hours of Wednesday. There’s a high tide around 0100 too, so I reckon there’s a chance for some coastal erosion along the southern end of the Collaroy-Narra stretch.

So, what does the Bureau have to say? Well, here’s the latest call for our region:

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Monday until midnight: Wind: E/SE 8/13 knots, increasing to 15/20 knots in the afternoon. Sea: about 1 metre, rising to 1 to 2 metres. Swell: E/NE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Tuesday: Wind: E/SE 15/20 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots. Sea: 1 to 2 metres, rising to 2 to 3 metres. Swell: E/NE 2 to 2.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: E/NE 20/30 knots.

Putting it all together, here’s how the situation currently looks to me. The swell should pick up slightly today in Sydney, but the increase in size should be obvious tomorrow morning. It should keep building through the day (along with the dreaded ESE wind) and be pushing into the 1.5x overhead range at exposed ENE spots by dusk. Overnight it looks as though it’ll add another metre (or even two) and Wednesday morning will start off with low tide and strong onshores at most places. Size, if the models prove correct, should be into 2x overhead – or bigger.

Naturally we’ll be following it around here, so check in from time to time.

ps: in case you missed them, I took a bunch of pics at Gardens yesterday morning.


Early Riser’s call

Posted on January 20th, 2009 in At large, Forecast.

Hello Friends,

Another early riser’s call for ya.

At 0330 this morning the wind was still 8-12 kts from NNE. By the time it gets light, the Bureau says you can expect it to be around the same velocity. As the day warms up, the NE will accelerate and the call is for up to 20-30 kts by this afternoon.

Given the dire state of the waves yesterday at many places, I wouldn’t be too hopeful about this morning’s prospects. However, there should be something in the way of a little wind wave in those semi-protected corners late in the afternoon – particularly if the wind happens to throttle back a little toward dusk.

Bureau says the swell is out of the SE at 1.5 metres. The nearest operational MHL buoy to the south of Sydney is at Batemans Bay and it’s currently showing a metre of (wind)swell at about 7 seconds coming from the NNE. So, not too fab looking prospects-wise.

Sydney’s set for another toasty one with highs in the upper twenties on the coast, grading to mid-thirties inland. Cloud is expected to increase later in the day and there might even be the odd afternoon thunderstorm. Typical summer weather.

It looks to me as though this general pattern is likely to persist through the rest of the work week and into the start of the weekend.

Go well with your day!


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 14th, 2008 in Forecast, Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 14 August 2008: 4 day outlook for Sydney:

Some larger stuff for the weekend at places that like dead South swell – and it’ll be chilly.

Friday: 2-3 metres at dead South spots.

Saturday: 2-3 metres South.

Sunday: 3-4 metres South.

Monday: 2-3 metres South.

And the water is a cool 16!

The Bureau says:

Issued at 11:25 am EST on Thursday 14 August 2008

Warning summary
Strong Wind Warning for Sydney coastal waters. For the latest warning information please check the Bureau’s web site http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw

Forecast for Thursday
Fine and sunny. Moderate to fresh west to southwest winds, gusty by the afternoon. Dangerous surf conditions developing.
Precis: Fine. Sunny.

City:          Max:   17  Parramatta:  Max:   17
Terrey Hills:  Max:   16  Penrith:     Max:   18
Liverpool     Max:   18  Richmond:    Max:   17

UV Alert: 10:40 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Forecast for Friday
Fine. Sunny morning then partly cloudy afternoon. Moderate to fresh west to southwest winds.

Precis: Fine.

City:  Min:    9  Max:   17
West:  Min:    3  Max:   17

Saturday Fine.

City:  Min:    9  Max:   16
West:  Min:    3  Max:   16

Sunday Fine.

City:  Min:    7  Max:   17
West:  Min:    1  Max:   17

Monday Mostly fine.

City:  Min:    7  Max:   17
West:  Min:    1  Max:   17

Tuesday Fine.

City:  Min:    7  Max:   17
West:  Min:    1  Max:   17

Wednesday Fine.

City:  Min:    7  Max:   19
West:  Min:    1  Max:   19

TG’s update

Posted on August 8th, 2008 in Forecast, Surf Reports.

Wait a bit wait a bittt… look..

And heey, it’s not every day you see a school of dolphins happily playing among the ferry traffic – right at the middle of the entrance to Circular Quay… !! between the Opera House and the Bridge.   Second time they’ve been there this week.  They obviously like it here.  A whale was there a year or two back.   What a nature wonderland Sydney is!

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Written by goat on August 7th, 2008

5 Day Outlook for Sydney:  Issued Thursday 7 August 2008:

Cold… and windy for the weekend… with sort of surf for the keen ones who don’t mind cold water too!…

Friday: coming up at South friendly spots, around 2 metres South East.

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range South.

Sunday: about 1 metre or a bit more South.

Monday: about 2 metres South.

Tuesday: about 2 metres South.

Water temps:

Sydney: 16

Byron: 20

Batemans: 14!

All that from online data…

2 years ago we didn’t have 7 day weather forecasts.

12 years ago we didn’t have online surf forecasts (started here).

40-50 years ago your weather forecast was for the next 24 hours!

Food for thought… on a cold weekend.

The Bureau says:

Strong wind warning for coastal waters for Friday. For the latest warning information please check the Bureau’s web site http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw

Forecast for Thursday evening
A shower or two. Freshening west to northwest winds.
Precis: Shower or two.

Forecast for Friday
Chance of a morning shower or two, then fine. Sunny periods developing. Cool, fresh west to southwest winds.
Precis: Morning shower then fine.

City:         Min:   8 Max:  17   Parramatta: Min:   5 Max:  17
Terrey Hills: Min:   6 Max:  15   Penrith:    Min:   5 Max:  17
Liverpool:    Min:   3 Max:  17   Richmond:   Min:   3 Max:  17

UV Alert: Nil , UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday Fine. Mostly sunny.

City:          Min:    7  Max:   17
West:          Min:    2  Max:   16

Sunday Fine.

City:          Min:    6  Max:   15
West:          Min:    1  Max:   16

Monday Fine.

City:          Min:    6  Max:   14
West:          Min:    1  Max:   14

Tuesday Fine.

City:          Min:    7  Max:   17
West:          Min:    1  Max:   16

Wednesday Fine.

City:          Min:    7  Max:   17
West:          Min:    1  Max:   16

Thursday Fine.

City:          Min:    8  Max:   18
West:          Min:    2  Max:   17
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong wind warning.
Thursday until midnight: Wind: W/NW 15/20 knots, reaching 20/30 knots, chiefly offshore, later this evening.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres, rising to 2 to 3 metres later.Swell: SE 1 to 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Wind: SW 25/33 knots, easing to 15/25 knots later. Sea: 2.5 to 3.5 metres.Swell: S/SE about 1.5 metres.
Saturday Outlook: Wind: W/SW 10/20 knots.
Sunday Outlook: Wind: W/NW 15/25 knots, possibly increasing to 30 knots later..

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 28th, 2008 in Forecast, Surf Reports.

Surf forecast issued Monday 28 July 2008: 6 day outlook for Sydney:

Oh boy it’s cold…oh boy it’s cold… It’s cold, I’m cold, I’ve got a cold…(but I’m getting better, fingers crossed).

I saw 3 people in the surf this arvo in some smokin’ waves at Nth Steyne – 1 wisely got out before the first squall hit.  At 5pm the temp was 9.3 and according to the Bureau the apparent temp was minus 0.9!

Now I don’t like that kind of temperature unless it is where it snows… and hey!?… The Bureau called yesterday’s white stuff covering the ground on parts of Sydney’s north shore “light hail”, but Belinda and Bruce said although it started falling as hail with loud bangs on the car when they were driving home, it then started falling very softly as flakes.  Having seen a lot of snow down the mountains and lived a year in Boston (shoveling the car out of the snow etc), they said that the white stuff on the houses and ground at Frenchs Forest looked just like when it snows in Boston!  So as far as we’re concerned, 6 month old Josh has seen his first snow – in Sydney, Sunday 27 July 2008!

Now that you know all that… if you’re still interested in the surf forecast…

Tuesday:   3-4 metres dead South (with accompanying wind for the wind chill factor).

Wednesday: 2-3 metres South East.

Thursday: 1-2 metres South East.

Friday: 1-2 metres South.

Saturday: about 1-2 metres at dead South spots.

Sunday: ditto.

Weather from the Bureau:

Gale Warning for Coastal and Strong Wind Warning for Closed Waters. For the latest warning information please check the Bureau’s web site http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw

Forecast for Monday evening
A few showers and the chance of a coastal thunderstorm. Cold, moderate to fresh southerly winds, strong at times near the coast. Dangerous surf conditions.
Precis: Showers. Cold winds.

Forecast for Tuesday
Shower or two. Cloudy periods. Cold moderate to fresh south to southwest winds. Dangerous surf conditions at first.
Precis: Shower or two. Cold winds.

City:         Min:   8 Max:  14   Parramatta: Min:   6 Max:  15
Terrey Hills: Min:   8 Max:  13   Penrith:    Min:   5 Max:  15
Liverpool:    Min:   4 Max:  14   Richmond:   Min:   3 Max:  14

UV Alert: Nil , UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Wednesday Fine.

City:          Min:    7  Max:   17
West:          Min:    1  Max:   17

Thursday Fine.

City:          Min:    7  Max:   18
West:          Min:    0  Max:   17

Friday Chance showers. Windy.

City:          Min:   10  Max:   20
West:          Min:    5  Max:   19

Saturday Fine.

City:          Min:   10  Max:   17
West:          Min:    3  Max:   16

Sunday Fine.

City:          Min:    8  Max:   18
West:          Min:    2  Max:   18

Monday Fine.

City:          Min:    7  Max:   18
West:          Min:    1  Max:   18

 

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