Articles tagged with "1/10"

Micro morning

Posted by: on January 12th, 2016

Hello Friends,

Headed for a very hot day across Sydney and as so often seems to happen, the waves have pretty much gone away. Swell had dropped to about a metre of 12-sec SSE by 0400 and looking at it in the last hour, I’d say it’s weakened further. I couldn’t see anyone in the water at the bits of Dee Why beach I can see from the crow’s nest and the point was flat. There might possibly be a knee high little runner now and then, but the waits will be long.
Tide’s high at 1040 and low again at 1715.
The good news is that today looks like being the low point surfwise this week. A southerly is set to fill in late morning and as it does there should be an increase in the wave energy.
The models are pointing to a combo of variable wind and a longish period ENE pulse for tomorrow morning. Swell energy is forecast to dip back a bit on Thursday and then come back up into the 3+ metre range on Friday when, unfortunately, the S-SSW wind will be ripping along pretty strongly – and it’ll have been raining since Thursday.
The Bureau’s models seem to be showing the wind staying strong, but going more to the SW on Saturday. If that happens, conditions might start coming together for us…
Have a good Tuesday – and vale David Bowie.

tiny dee why wave

Tiny line at Dee Why beach

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge the northwest directing northerly winds along New South Wales north coast while a low pressure trough is moving along the south coast bringing south to southeasterly change. The trough will weaken on the central coast later Tuesday and winds will turn northerly. A cold front is expected to bring vigorous southerly change during Thursday and Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly in the late morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots inshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore this afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon.
Wednesday 13 January
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Thursday 14 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of rain.

Southerly smashing it on Sunday

Posted by: on December 27th, 2015

Hello Friends,

Usual lazy Sunday start for your correspondent. Climbed up to the crows nest just on 0900. Wind was coming vigorously from the south at 20-25 kts under grey skies. Tide’s coming up to high at 1020. The MHL buoy was picking up 2.8 metres of 7-sec south to SSE wind swell at 0600.
There were a few people in the water at Dee Why when I checked, but it didn’t look too exciting. I reckon you’d be doing well to find a chest high wave face.
The Bureau says the southerly is going to racket along for the next 36 hours and then on Tuesday it should moderate a little. Swell energy’s expected to peak this afternoon at around the 2.5 metre mark.
As noted yesterday, the outlook for the week ahead is not too interesting. From Wednesday onward it looks like we’ll be back to summer afternoon NE’r with small, shortish period south to SSE wind swell at first, but as we get to the weekend, the dominant direction will be working around to the east. So, maybe a bit more interesting, particularly in the mornings.
Have yourself a chill Sunday and go well with your plans!

dee why

Not much wave activity but heaps of wind at 0900

dy beach

Just up the beach, one gets caught

Weather Situation

A vigorous southerly change associated with a strong cold front crossing the southern Tasman Sea is moving along New South Wales north coast and it will reach Point Danger Sunday afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually ease from the south during Monday as a high pressure system moves near Tasmania extending a ridge along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly below 0.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Monday 28 December

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.

Tuesday 29 December

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Sticky: Silvery start but still tiny

Posted by: on January 20th, 2014

Two paddlers head out

Micro mauler
Hello Friends,

No point looking at Dee Why with surf lust this morning. It is close to lake like in its stillness and inactivity. Every now and then a tiny and surprisingly feisty looking ankle high little line folds over on the sand, but really, you’d be scratching around elsewhere for something micro to catch.

From the shape of this morning’s MHL directional spectra charts, it would appear that we’re unlikely to see much today, although it could come up a touch later on – as the SE onshore ramps up into the the 15-20 kt range.

Bureau says it’ll be east tomorrow but at least the wave energy should be up a touch. Who knows, maybe a quick little waist high sesh for the early?

Although the long range forecasts haven’t panned out too well for us of late, eternal optimist that I am, I do love to see the prospect of proper swell in the predictions. There seems to be some consensus among the interpretations for a reasonable chest to head plus pulse around Thursday and maybe, after dipping back into the small range, another uptick on Sunday.

The totally speculative two week outlook for this morning projects winter type bigness from the south east for the start of Feb. Hey, it could happen you know… 🙂

Have yourself a fine old Monday!

Weather Situation
A weak trough of low pressure will linger over the central and northern parts of the coast during the next few days, while a belt of high pressure to the south of Australia extends a weak ridge along the southern coast. Towards the end of the week a high is forecast to strengthen over the Tasman Sea, before the the next frontal system sweeps through the region.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly about 10 knots tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres by evening.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Tuesday 21 January
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Wednesday 22 January
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.

Still small

Posted by: on January 18th, 2014

Same as it ever was

Day get started
Hello Friends,

You could ask for better. But, then again, it is summer, so whadya expect? We’re in for a warm one again today – although out here on the coast will be nothing like the sort of heat pretty much everybody west of us to the Indian ocean’s had to put up with. With all that energy in the system, the NE’r will spin up into the 20-25 kt range by this afternoon. Right now it’s maybe knee high at Dee Why, but maybe by dusk there’ll be some crazy mixed up wind swell lumps into the waist plus to even chestish range… never know… it could happen…

We’re due to get a south change through tomorrow, but it doesn’t look at this stage as though it’ll be bringing any swell with it.

TC June has formed southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. According to the latest reports, June’s maximum sustained winds were near 35 knots/40 mph/62 kph and the storm is expected to strengthen slightly over the next several days.

Here’s what the Bureau says:

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone June was located over the Coral Sea near New Caledonia. The cyclone is tracking towards the south southeast.

Tropical Cyclone June is expected to produce a prolonged period of gale
force winds, heavy rainfall and moderate to heavy swells over Norfolk Island on Sunday and Monday.

Damaging winds averaging above 75 km/h with gusts of about 100 km/h are
expected to develop on Norfolk Island by about midday on Sunday and persist
through the remainder of Sunday into Monday morning.
The wind is expected to ease later on Monday.

Heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected during Sunday afternoon with
rain easing overnight Sunday.

A heavy northerly swell will build on Sunday and Monday to more than 3 metres
as the system approaches, and shift to the west from Tuesday.

So, does that mean we’ll get waves here? Well, maybe. But from the shape of this morning’s swell modelling it really doesn’t look as though Sydney will see any swell energy from TC June. There might be something noticeable as you get up toward the Qld border but I wouldn’t be packing the car at this stage for a trip north.

Have yourself a great Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is steered eastwards ahead of weak cold front and associated trough moving over the southern Tasman Sea today. The trough will slowly extend across New South Wales today before weakening and stalling on Sunday near Seal Rocks. A south to southeasterly wind change is expected behind the trough associated with an elongated ridge of high pressure extending from southwest of Western Australia.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around dawn.
Sunday 19 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in early morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Monday 20 January
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.

Sticky: Micro Sunday

Posted by: on January 12th, 2014

Battle of the floaties

Hello Friends,

I wish the Bureau’d been wrong about this morning, but here we are with just over half a metre of east showing faintly on the 0500 directional spectra data from MHL. A reasonable number of hopefuls bobbing about on a warm and sunny morning at Dee Why, but apart from something in the sub-waist range, I really couldn’t see any compelling reason to be trying to catch waves when I first checked at 0845.

According to this morning’s forecast, we’re in for a warm week ahead with tmeps in the mid to upper twenties. Surf? What’s that? Looks like early will be best when the surface conditions will be most favorable for the expected knee to waist conditions that apparently are all we can hope for across at least the next week.

On we roll everybody, let’s be good to each other and take it cruisy. The good days will come again…

Weather Situation
A cold front is crossing the southern Tasman Sea bringing a weak southerly change along New South Wales south and central coasts. A high pressure system south of the Bight is moving east extending a ridge behind the front. The high will move over the southern Tasman Sea during Sunday and become slow-moving from Monday onwards strengthening the ridge to the north coast.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre.
Monday 13 January
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Tuesday 14 January
Winds
Northeasterly below 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.

Sticky: Could do better Huey

Posted by: on January 8th, 2014

0615 SE wind 15 kts...

Hello Friends,

Wind was working it over pretty thoroughly as the day got started in Sydney. We had a couple of metres of 10 sec period south swell, so had the conditions been better, you’d have found a wave. But instead, it’s trashed and unappetizing in the extreme.

Weirdly, the wind is WSW down in the Illawarra and up along the Macquarie coast. So, it’s just Sydney suffering from the blahs.

Swell energy is set to fade over the next 24 hours and tomorrow looks to be onshore again – although maybe it’ll be light enough for the early to contemplate water time. By Friday we’re supposed to be back to standard NE conditions, so again, perhaps there’ll be something…

The long range models have gone all quiet on us again. No big systems brewing up for us from the look of things.

Ah well, we’re another day closer to the magic months of autumn and early winter…

Keep on smilin’!

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Wednesday 8 January 2014.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred near Tasmania extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, while a low pressure trough deepens over the state’s west. The high will move slowly eastwards during the next few days, weakening on the weekend as it drifts across the Tasman Sea. This will allow the next trough and cold front from the Southern Ocean to pass across southeastern Australia.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Thursday 9 January
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by evening.
Friday 10 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.

Sticky: Blasting southerly but no swell

Posted by: on December 29th, 2013

Roaring southerly

Hello Friends,

Not often you see 30-40 kts of southerly but no swell. The Bureau says it should pick up a bit as the day goes along and the wind swings more SE (yeah, great). Swell, such as it is, was coming from the ENE at about 6 seconds apart and maybe a metre or so at sea at 0400. As you can see from the picture, this meant essentially no waves at Dee Why for the early.

The wind should back off a little later on this evening, but since it’ll be SE, who cares? Tomorrow the Bureau tells us it’ll still be SE in the morning, but we should at least have a couple metres of south swell, so there might possibly be some sketchy opportunity in a protected corner. Today however looks like a write-off.

Assuming the south sticks around, Tuesday morning early could be a possibility thanks to a more favourable forecast N-NE breeze.

The longer range outlook shows some prospect of a reasonable south swell late in the coming week. And beyond that, the very long range speculations are kinda interesting (after weeks of nothing) in that they suggest we might possibly get a stretch of long period and biggish east. However, I wouldn’t be making any plans just yet. 🙂

Best wishes for a top old Sunday!

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Sunday 29 December 2013.
Weather Situation
A vigorous southerly change will move up the New South Wales coast today reaching Sydney Waters early this morning and extending to the far north coast by this evening. Southerly winds are expected to ease Monday morning as a high in a wake of the trough extends a ridge along the coast. Weak onshore airstream is expected to develop under the high pressure ridge from next Tuesday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coastal Waters
Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots shifting southerly 25 to 35 knots early in the morning then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southeast to southwesterly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, increasing to 2 metres offshore by early evening.
Monday 30 December
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Tuesday 31 December
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.

Sticky: And the wait for waves continues

Posted by: on December 20th, 2013

Hunter

Not up to the mark

I've got my eye on you...

Hello Friends,

If you were in early at NE spots, you might have found the odd knee to waist lumpy bump. Dee Why at 0600 wasn’t one of those places however. Only one or two bods having a poke around in the sloppy and weak conditions. Beautiful morning though for what promises to be a hot day (high of 35).

According to the MHL data, the main energy’s coming broadly from the NE with an average height at sea just shy of the two metre mark. Period though is a wind-swelly 7 seconds.

Tide’s high at 0945 and low at 1620.

Outlook? Well, as usual, I’m with the Goat on that front (see down page!)

Have a good one and don’t be in such a hurry, chill!

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Friday 20 December 2013.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is forced slowly northwards today as a cold front moves across the southern Tasman Sea. Following the front an elongated band of high pressure south of Australia will extend a ridge across the NSW coast associated with a fresh to strong southerly change. The change enters the South Coast Friday afternoon, reaching Sydney early Saturday morning, then weakening and stalling near the Mid North Coast Saturday afternoon. By Sunday a high pressure system redevelops over the Tasman Sea resulting in winds turning back to the east to northeast.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
East to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms inshore during this afternoon and evening with little or no rainfall.
Saturday 21 December
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots ahead of a southerly change before dawn. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1.5 metres before dawn, then tending east to northeasterly around 1 metre during the morning.
Sunday 22 December
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.

Another micro day coming up

Posted by: on December 19th, 2013

Lion Island view

A full moon last night

A couple of takers

Hello Friends,

Another morning of essentially flat conditions for Dee Why. However, at 0200 the MHL buoy was showing about a metre of 10s SE swell, so maybe an optimally configured bank at just the right tide would see the odd waist high set wave face.

Outlook remains pretty ordinary with the best hope being a little score around daybreak on days following windy afternoons. We’re in for a couple of days of reasonably fresh NE wind, so getting up early for a look could be a plan if you’re getting desperate.

Tide’s high at 0910 and low at 1545.

Have yourself a top old Thursday and get up to some good on the way through!

Forecast issued at 4:49 am EDT on Thursday 19 December 2013.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast. This high is expected to remain slow moving during the next few days, with northerly winds becoming increasingly dominant along coastal waters by the end of the week. A trough is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern parts late Friday and the Central Coast on Saturday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Friday 20 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Saturday 21 December
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.

Sticky: The waiting game continues

Posted by: on December 18th, 2013

Beach waiting for swell

The day gets going

Hello Friends,

I’m calling it 1 out of 10 at Dee Why. Maybe I shouldn’t be so harsh though. Just because it’s almost perfectly flat, doesn’t mean it’s such a bad day at the beach. You could go for a walk or a swim or get out the SUP and have a paddle around. Skies are mainly clear and there was a light NE sea breeze ruffling the sea.

The MHL buoy off Sydney is recording a faint NE wind swell of about a metre at just 5 seconds apart. It’ll be a real challenge to catch that stuff.

This morning’s forecast is calling for a day like yesterday and a tomorrow like today – ie tiny east swell and an afternoon NE’r.

Tide is high at 0835 and low at 1510.

Have a top old day!

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Wednesday 18 December 2013.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast. This high is expected to remain slow moving during the next few days, with northerly winds becoming increasingly dominant along coastal waters by the end of the week. A trough is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern parts Friday or Saturday.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Thursday 19 December
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Friday 20 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.

 

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