Hello Friends,

What can you say? The forecasts were right. The last little traces of swell disappeared from Sydney overnight. The MHL data shows less than a metre of 7 sec south chop. You won’t be doing much surfing around here today.

Sunday morning’s sunny skies and benign aspect are set to give way overnight as a couple very windy days take the stage. The models predict a fair amount of south swell arriving by Tuesday. However, although it’s expected to be close to the 4 metre mark, the wind is expected to be howling along at 30-40kts from the SW, swing S later. According to the latest run of the WAMs, the energy levels should see swell in the head high plus range from Wednesday through to next weekend. At this stage it looks like the wind will be pretty strong throughout the period, but we might get lucky in the mornings.

Anyway, it’s good to see something to look forward to in the forecasts!

Have yourself a fantastic Sunday.

Synoptic Situation
A strong cold front moving over western New South Wales will reach the south coast later today, then continue to the north coast overnight. A low is expected to deepen over the western Tasman Sea during Monday, while a high lies further west. A vigorous southwesterly airstream is expected to develop between these two systems, likely bringing gale force winds to coastal waters.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning
Sunday until midnight: Wind: West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.Swell: Northeasterly 0.5 metres.
Monday: Wind: Westerly 25 to 30 knots tending west to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots around midday.Sea: 2 to 3 metres increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday then increasing to 5 metres by early evening.Swell: Easterly about 1 metre tending southerly about 1.5 metres in the afternoon and evening.
Tuesday: Wind: South to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots tending southerly 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon then tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Well, as expected, it was really very small this morning as the sun rose on 1 July 2010 in Sydney. The MHL buoy is showing just half a metre of 8 second period south swell. From the look of the other swell buoy data along the coast, the flatness prevails from Eden to the Tweed.

If the forecast models have it right, we’re in for at least a couple days of abject flatness, before a possible return of small waves at south swell spots for the mornings this weekend.

Yesterday I was looking at some of the models and seeing hopes for a brief long period pulse early next week. The blip is still showing on some interpretations of the data, but it’s being downgraded and abbreviated. Timing is always uncertain in these things, but the latest estimates have swell peaking in the head high plus range during the night time hours Monday.

With luck the Goat will have time to examine the entrails for us later today and maybe he’ll see something I can’t…

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Thursday until midnight: Wind: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots around midday.Sea: Up to 1.5 metres.Swell: Southeasterly 0.5 metres tending easterly during the evening.
Friday: Wind: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots later in the evening.Sea: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.Swell: Southeasterly 0.5 metres tending southerly about 1 metre from the morning.
Saturday: Wind: West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon then tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

At about midday yesterday, Huey started turning down the juice very quickly. It went from around two metres at 11 seconds to a metre at 6 seconds this morning. But that’s what you get when the wind blows hard offshore like it has been overnight.

The latest forecast is for the SW wind to be going pretty strongly for the rest of the day. However, from around noon it is supposed to weaken while at the same time we should see a new pulse of south energy filling in. Hard as it is to believe looking at the situation now, the forecast says we could see solidly overhead sets by close of play today.

Yours truly will be keeping an eye on it and at this stage I plan to do an update around midday if anything worthy has started to show. The Eden buoy started going up last night and Batemans Bay has jumped close to a metre in the last 8 hours, but the average period is only 7 seconds.

Have yourself a good one!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Gale warning
Thursday until midnight: Wind: West to southwesterly 30 to 35 knots becoming southwesterly 20 to 30 knots around midday then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots by early evening. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening.Sea: Up to 4 metres decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon then decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.Swell: South to southeasterly around 2 metres increasing southerly around 2.5 metres. Dangerous surf conditions developing in the afternoon. Swell breaking dangerously, close inshore.
Friday: Wind: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots.Sea: Up to 4 metres decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon then decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.Swell: Southerly 1.5 to 3 metres.
Saturday: Wind: Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

One of those mornings when I don’t mind the prospect of a coffee and desk work so much. 20-30 kts of SSE wind, lowering grey skies and a 2 metre SE swell with a power setting of only 6 seconds. As this morning’s picture shows, it was not an attractive scene where Dee Why was concerned. Given the look of the sea, I’d be very surprised if there was anywhere with much of a wave this morning. Despite all the wind, there’s just not much energy in the ocean.

From the shape of the forecast data, it would seem that we’re in for another week of mainly southerly conditions. The swell should push up a bit but on current reckoning, it won’t be a dramatic boost above the present conditions – at least not for the next few days. Some interpretations of the WAM data are still showing a biggish pulse about Monday. They were projecting it yesterday as well, so maybe we’ll get lucky.

Meanwhile, down at Bells, the forecast is not looking too flash for waves across the period of the contest. I reckon they might want to move it to Johanna…

Go well with your day, wherever you may be!

Tides: H @1000, L @1600
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Gale Warning.
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: SW/SE 25/33 knots, grading to 30/40 knots offshore. Sea: 2.5 to 3.5 metres, rising to 4 to 5 metres offshore.Swell: SE about 1.5 metres. Thunderstorms.
Thursday: Wind: S/SW 25/33 knots, grading to 30/40 knots offshore.Sea: 2.5 to 3.5 metres, rising to 4 to 5 metres offshore.Swell: S/SE about 2 metres.
Friday: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots, grading 30/40 knots offshore early.

Hello Friends,

Looks very small but not quite flat. There are a few little ones getting into the stretch between No Mans and Dee Why and between Gardens and Northy. However, it is really small. Knee high bomb sets and 5 metre rides is pretty much the story.

Outlook for the rest of the day is not too interesting. What we have now, is probably what we’ll have for the rest of the weekend… indeed, for the rest of the week. There is some evidence of a broad region of easterly swell developing to the NW of NZ late in the week, so there is a small chance we’ll get something of interest by next weekend.

Have yourself a terrific day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 10/15 knots, reaching 15/20 knots at first. Tending E/NE in the afternoon and freshening to 15/20 knots later.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres.Swell: E’ly about 1 metre.
Sunday: Wind: N/NE 10/15 knots, freshening to NE 15/25 knots in the afternoon and reaching 20/25 knots later. Sea: about 1 metre rising to 1.5 to 2 metres in the afternoon. Swell: E’ly about 1 metre.
Monday: Wind: N/NE 10/20 knots.

Hello Friends,

Choppy and very small to almost flat at Dee Why this morning. The longer period component that was giving us a few chest high plus sets at exposed spots yesterday morning vanished abruptly overnight. As the sun appeared over the horizon this morning in Sydney, a weak and utterly gutless 6 second period NE windswell of maybe a metre at sea.

Back later on with some thoughts about the outlook for the next week…

Go well!

TIDES: L @0645, H @1245
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Friday until midnight: Wind: N/NE 15/20 knots reaching 20/25 knots in the afternoon and evening. Sea: 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: SE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Saturday: Wind: N/NE 15/20 knots. Sea: about 1.5 metres.Swell: NE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Sunday: Wind: NE 15/25 knots.

Hello Friends,

Unfortunately there really isn’t much of anything in the way of surfable energy this morning in Sydney. 65mm of rainfall last night will ensure that the water is extra woofy anyway, so you’re not missing much in that regard.

Right now it looks as though we should have lots of time for ding repairing etc this weekend. Indeed, it now appears that the next pulse may not show up in the Sydney region until late Tuesday.

Between now and then the general outlook is for very small to near flatness. It’s not likely that we’ll see much of anything above the waist high mark. Short period and small is the pattern showing on the models.

With luck we should have something into the head high range midweek. So hang in there and check in regularly because as usual, we’ll be keeping a close eye on developments.

Have yourself a top old day!

Forecast for Saturday
Cloudy with showers. Chance of thunderstorms, chiefly afternoon and evening. Moderate southeast winds, tending northeast.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 15/20 knots tending E/NE in the afternoon.Sea: 1 to 2 metres.Swell: E 1 to 1.5 metres. Chance isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday: Wind: NW/NE 5/15 knots, increasing to 15/25 knots, turning S/SW later. Sea: increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: SE 1 to 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms.
Monday: Wind: W/SW 10/20 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots later.

Hello Friends,

Rather tiny this morning, but that’s not surprising because there’s only a metre or so of short period (ie local) windswell. The breeze is out of the NW to start and as the day goes along it’s set to pick up before a south change comes through.

Sadly, it doesn’t look to me as though the change will do much of anything to improve the sub-waist high dribble now weakly washing in.

Latest advice from the Bureau is that a little low should spin up off the far south coast late this weekend and out of that we might get a small improvement to conditions.

The long range WAMs aren’t looking quite as interesting as yesterday, sadly. Oh well, Huey will be back soon…

Have fun and don’t tread on any wobbegongs!

Synoptic Situation
A ridge of high pressure across the northeastern New South Wales will maintain generally east to northeast winds along northern coasts during the next few days. A southerly change will extend to the far southern New South Wales Coast early Friday, then move to the central coast in the afternoon before stalling on the Hunter coast in the evening. A low is expected to develop off the far south coast later Sunday.
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Friday until midnight: Wind: N/NW 15/20 knots, reaching 20/25 knots at times, ahead of a S change 20/25 knots later in the afternoon.Sea: 1 to 2 metres, rising to 2 to 2.5 metres following the S change.Swell: NE about 1 metre. Afternoon thunderstorms.
Saturday: Wind: SW/SE 15/20 knots tending E/NE 15/20 knots in the afternoon.Sea: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: E 1 to 1.5 metres.
Sunday: Wind: NW/NE 15/25 knots.

Hello Friends,

You may have noticed that we don’t exactly have beach weather this morning. Cloudy skies, the odd light shower drifting down on the steady SSW wind and no obvious sign of swell. The MHL buoy reports a couple metres of south swell at just 7 seconds apart, but as you can see from the photograph (very grainy because the light levels were so low), there’s really nothing much showing.

The general outlook over the next few days is pretty ordinary. It looks from the models as though we’re unlikely to see much of any improvement until we get toward the middle of the week. And even then, while the swell should push up from the east, there’s likely to be a fair amount of east to ESE wind with it.

If I had to pick a day for the coming week, I’d go for Thursday morning before the wind kicks in again. But that’s a fair way off, so I reserve the right to change my advice as the week goes along!

Have yourself a top old day and get up to some good on the way through.

TIDES: L @0900, H @1540
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 18/23 knots, turning E/SE 15/20 knots in the afternoon or evening. Sea: about 2 metres, abating to about 1.5 metres.Swell: SE about 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday: Wind: NE 15/20 knots.Sea: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: E/SE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Monday: Wind: NE 10/20 knots.