Hello Friends,

Rather cool – by Sydney standards – this morning, but the wind is offshore and we still have a microscopic line trickling in. The primary swell direction is out of ESE and it’s a about a metre on average out at the MHL buoy, but the average period is close to 7 seconds. So it is struggling to get much above the knee high mark. Take the mal or the SUP and have some fun chasing the little offshore walls, I’d say.

The forecast calls for a slight increase as the day goes along and although the wind is going to pick up, it’s set to stay more or less offshore all along our beaches. What would be good is if the period improved as well. And on that front I see that the average period down south has been gradually inching upward. It’s nothing spectacular, but both Eden and Batemans Bay are close to the 9 second mark.

Wondering what it might be like if we get up to those sorts of numbers here? Well, through the magic of tags, here is a link to some reports for days that the swell was out of the ESE at 1.5m at 8 seconds. For the last few years I’ve been recording the MHL Sydney buoy swell direction, height and period values and adding them as a ‘tag’ each time I do a report. My idea is eventually to be able to look at the forecast for these values and then pull up all the reports from our archives that match. So, by following the linked text above, you can see what I observed in the past when we had such conditions. Pretty geeky I admit!

Speaking of forecasts and such, it looks from this morning’s run of the models that we might possibly get a long period pulse beginning to fill in later today, so instead of 8 seconds or so, we could, if they’re right, get something above 13 seconds. A look at the tags collection shows that we haven’t had such a long period from the ESE, so I’m thinking it’s more likely to be out of the south and that those long period values will only be in the peak component. Even so, 13+ sec is juice, so it might be an idea to check the beach this afternoon and tomorrow morning.

I’m in magazine mode, so I can’t guarantee it, but I’ll try to file again later this afternoon.

Have yourself a fantastic day!

TIDES: L @0910 H @1515

Weather Situation
A low pressure system is deepening near the Bass Strait as an upper cold pool moves over the southeastern Australia. The low and cold pool are expected to move slowly to the southeast during Tuesday and Wednesday and a high pressure system is expected to move west of Tasmania on Thursday extending a ridge to the northeast of the state.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds: Westerly 10 to 15 knots tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Wednesday
Winds: Westerly 15 to 20 knots tending west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then increasing to 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly 1 metre tending easterly late in the evening.

Forecast for Thursday
Winds: Westerly 15 to 20 knots tending southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending southerly up to 10 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southeasterly 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Sunny morning in Sydney once again, but quite a bit cooler than yesterday. A harbinger of mornings to come as autumn gears up. Energy levels are still at a low ebb on the surf front though. We’re almost at the midway point of April and we’re still not seeing things fire up along the east coast. It’s just barely breaking at Dee Why this morning because the swell’s only about a metre from the south, but worse, the period is bumbling along at a gutless 7 seconds. There was one person in the water when I took this morning’s snap and he didn’t seem to be having much luck with the knee high shutdowns at Dee Why centre.  Unsurprisingly it looked as though he’d pulled on the steamer as well – despite the water still being okay for boardies.

This morning’s riffs on the WAM data are showing the same variability as yesterday. The pessimistic interpretations reckon we won’t get much above the current levels for the next week, while the more hopeful calls are saying it’ll be flat until the weekend when we could get some stormy south swell. I’m hoping that the forecast increase in period from around tomorrow, will lead to a couple days of at least waist to chest high options at south facing beaches across the middle part of the week.

As always, we shall see what we shall see!

Have yourself a great Monday.

ps: I still have some raffle tickets for the Surfrider fundraiser Simon Anderson thruster replica (shaped by the man himself). You’ll need to act fast though because I’ve got to turn the stubs in today. The plan will be to pay me via paypal and then to send me a self-addressed stamped envelope so I can zap the tix back to you. Please use the feedback link to get in touch. This replica is of the ground breaking first thruster Simon used to win the ’81 Bells contest. Tickets are $5 for one or $10 for three.

TIDES: L @0800, H @1400

Weather Situation

A cold front crossed the southern and central NSW coast yesterday and will move slowly along the north coast today and weaken. A complex surface low will lie over southern NSW, Victoria and Bass Strait today, then move slowly to the southeast over the next few days as a weak high pressure ridge develops over northern and central parts of the state.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, tending northwest to northeasterly to 10 knots in the afternoon, then tending northwesterly at about 15 knots in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre. The chance of thunderstorms offshore this morning.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming westerly 20 to 25 knots by early evening then tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly 1 metre tending southerly about 1.5 metres from midday.

Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: Westerly 10 to 20 knots tending west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then becoming westerly 15 to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre.

 

Hello Friends,

The forecast says we have an 80% chance of rain this afternoon, but this morning the weather was just about perfect. Only problem is the swell has dried up almost completely. The MHL buoy is showing about a metre of 6 second period dribble from the NE. That translated into knee high sets for Sunday morning at Dee Why. Given those paltry numbers, I’d say there isn’t much chance of finding anything more substantial anywhere else in the Sydney region.

This morning’s run of the forecast models are showing the insubstantial conditions lasting for at least another 3-4 days. After that there is some divergence among the various riffs on the long range data. Some are showing a brief pulse around Thursday, others are showing the activity lasting for a couple days. How big? Well, again, some divergence in the interpretations, but the most optimistic is calling for 3 metres at 10 seconds Thr-Fri…

Ah well, we shall see what we shall see!

I’m off to the city shortly to do another Sunday chat session on 702 ABC’s weekend show with Simon Marnie and Rob Brander on matters beach and surf at about 1000.

TIDES: L @0700, H @1300

Weather Situation

A high near New Zealand extends a ridge to the far north coast. A cold front will cross the NSW southern and central coasts during Sunday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending west to southwesterly by early evening. Seas: Up to 2 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 metre. The chance of thunderstorms from midday, mainly offshore.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: Northwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending northeasterly around dawn then tending north to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots during the morning. Winds tending westerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell: Easterly 1 metre. The chance of thunderstorms offshore until afternoon.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre.

 

Hello Friends,

What can you say? The forecasts were right. The last little traces of swell disappeared from Sydney overnight. The MHL data shows less than a metre of 7 sec south chop. You won’t be doing much surfing around here today.

Sunday morning’s sunny skies and benign aspect are set to give way overnight as a couple very windy days take the stage. The models predict a fair amount of south swell arriving by Tuesday. However, although it’s expected to be close to the 4 metre mark, the wind is expected to be howling along at 30-40kts from the SW, swing S later. According to the latest run of the WAMs, the energy levels should see swell in the head high plus range from Wednesday through to next weekend. At this stage it looks like the wind will be pretty strong throughout the period, but we might get lucky in the mornings.

Anyway, it’s good to see something to look forward to in the forecasts!

Have yourself a fantastic Sunday.

Synoptic Situation
A strong cold front moving over western New South Wales will reach the south coast later today, then continue to the north coast overnight. A low is expected to deepen over the western Tasman Sea during Monday, while a high lies further west. A vigorous southwesterly airstream is expected to develop between these two systems, likely bringing gale force winds to coastal waters.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning
Sunday until midnight: Wind: West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.Swell: Northeasterly 0.5 metres.
Monday: Wind: Westerly 25 to 30 knots tending west to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots around midday.Sea: 2 to 3 metres increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday then increasing to 5 metres by early evening.Swell: Easterly about 1 metre tending southerly about 1.5 metres in the afternoon and evening.
Tuesday: Wind: South to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots tending southerly 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon then tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Well, as expected, it was really very small this morning as the sun rose on 1 July 2010 in Sydney. The MHL buoy is showing just half a metre of 8 second period south swell. From the look of the other swell buoy data along the coast, the flatness prevails from Eden to the Tweed.

If the forecast models have it right, we’re in for at least a couple days of abject flatness, before a possible return of small waves at south swell spots for the mornings this weekend.

Yesterday I was looking at some of the models and seeing hopes for a brief long period pulse early next week. The blip is still showing on some interpretations of the data, but it’s being downgraded and abbreviated. Timing is always uncertain in these things, but the latest estimates have swell peaking in the head high plus range during the night time hours Monday.

With luck the Goat will have time to examine the entrails for us later today and maybe he’ll see something I can’t…

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Thursday until midnight: Wind: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots around midday.Sea: Up to 1.5 metres.Swell: Southeasterly 0.5 metres tending easterly during the evening.
Friday: Wind: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots later in the evening.Sea: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.Swell: Southeasterly 0.5 metres tending southerly about 1 metre from the morning.
Saturday: Wind: West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon then tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

At about midday yesterday, Huey started turning down the juice very quickly. It went from around two metres at 11 seconds to a metre at 6 seconds this morning. But that’s what you get when the wind blows hard offshore like it has been overnight.

The latest forecast is for the SW wind to be going pretty strongly for the rest of the day. However, from around noon it is supposed to weaken while at the same time we should see a new pulse of south energy filling in. Hard as it is to believe looking at the situation now, the forecast says we could see solidly overhead sets by close of play today.

Yours truly will be keeping an eye on it and at this stage I plan to do an update around midday if anything worthy has started to show. The Eden buoy started going up last night and Batemans Bay has jumped close to a metre in the last 8 hours, but the average period is only 7 seconds.

Have yourself a good one!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Gale warning
Thursday until midnight: Wind: West to southwesterly 30 to 35 knots becoming southwesterly 20 to 30 knots around midday then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots by early evening. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening.Sea: Up to 4 metres decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon then decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.Swell: South to southeasterly around 2 metres increasing southerly around 2.5 metres. Dangerous surf conditions developing in the afternoon. Swell breaking dangerously, close inshore.
Friday: Wind: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots.Sea: Up to 4 metres decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon then decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.Swell: Southerly 1.5 to 3 metres.
Saturday: Wind: Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

One of those mornings when I don’t mind the prospect of a coffee and desk work so much. 20-30 kts of SSE wind, lowering grey skies and a 2 metre SE swell with a power setting of only 6 seconds. As this morning’s picture shows, it was not an attractive scene where Dee Why was concerned. Given the look of the sea, I’d be very surprised if there was anywhere with much of a wave this morning. Despite all the wind, there’s just not much energy in the ocean.

From the shape of the forecast data, it would seem that we’re in for another week of mainly southerly conditions. The swell should push up a bit but on current reckoning, it won’t be a dramatic boost above the present conditions – at least not for the next few days. Some interpretations of the WAM data are still showing a biggish pulse about Monday. They were projecting it yesterday as well, so maybe we’ll get lucky.

Meanwhile, down at Bells, the forecast is not looking too flash for waves across the period of the contest. I reckon they might want to move it to Johanna…

Go well with your day, wherever you may be!

Tides: H @1000, L @1600
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Gale Warning.
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: SW/SE 25/33 knots, grading to 30/40 knots offshore. Sea: 2.5 to 3.5 metres, rising to 4 to 5 metres offshore.Swell: SE about 1.5 metres. Thunderstorms.
Thursday: Wind: S/SW 25/33 knots, grading to 30/40 knots offshore.Sea: 2.5 to 3.5 metres, rising to 4 to 5 metres offshore.Swell: S/SE about 2 metres.
Friday: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots, grading 30/40 knots offshore early.

Hello Friends,

Looks very small but not quite flat. There are a few little ones getting into the stretch between No Mans and Dee Why and between Gardens and Northy. However, it is really small. Knee high bomb sets and 5 metre rides is pretty much the story.

Outlook for the rest of the day is not too interesting. What we have now, is probably what we’ll have for the rest of the weekend… indeed, for the rest of the week. There is some evidence of a broad region of easterly swell developing to the NW of NZ late in the week, so there is a small chance we’ll get something of interest by next weekend.

Have yourself a terrific day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 10/15 knots, reaching 15/20 knots at first. Tending E/NE in the afternoon and freshening to 15/20 knots later.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres.Swell: E’ly about 1 metre.
Sunday: Wind: N/NE 10/15 knots, freshening to NE 15/25 knots in the afternoon and reaching 20/25 knots later. Sea: about 1 metre rising to 1.5 to 2 metres in the afternoon. Swell: E’ly about 1 metre.
Monday: Wind: N/NE 10/20 knots.

Hello Friends,

Choppy and very small to almost flat at Dee Why this morning. The longer period component that was giving us a few chest high plus sets at exposed spots yesterday morning vanished abruptly overnight. As the sun appeared over the horizon this morning in Sydney, a weak and utterly gutless 6 second period NE windswell of maybe a metre at sea.

Back later on with some thoughts about the outlook for the next week…

Go well!

TIDES: L @0645, H @1245
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Friday until midnight: Wind: N/NE 15/20 knots reaching 20/25 knots in the afternoon and evening. Sea: 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: SE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Saturday: Wind: N/NE 15/20 knots. Sea: about 1.5 metres.Swell: NE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Sunday: Wind: NE 15/25 knots.